blonde poker forum

thought i would kick this off ahead of the draft and with free agency in full swing

this was announced today

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CePX1BxUMAAfcYY.jpg)

Looking forward to Rams hard knocks - should be quality!

Not so pleased with hearing that the kickoff returns will now start from the 25 yard line though! :(

Oakland to make the playoffs this year.

Let's just get that in on page 1.

Cannot Wait.!!!!!!!!

Agree. Hazard a guess it's designed to reduce the run backs and associated injuries that have been very prevalent past couple of years.
As a Bears fan, free agency bee very good for us imo.

Tickets for Wembley & Twickenham purchased at start of year

I've bumped the Fantasy League thread to coincide with this.  If anyone fancies giving it a go for the first time, then post a message on that thread please.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54617.0

It's designed to do that, but will it?

If I was Special Teams coach, I'd now want all my kickoffs to land inside the 5 so that the touchback isn't an option unless the return team lets the ball bounce, which obviously means a risk of it not bouncing into the end zone. Probably get better average field position that way, plus the opportunity to force a fumble on the return. I'd also be going for an onside kick any time there's a 15 yard penalty enforced on the kickoff, because the difference in average field position between a failed onside kick and a touchback is maybe 10-12 yards now. If coaches use their brains, it should actually mean LESS touchbacks, and more onside kicks.

Knowing how risk averse NFL coaches are though, absolutely nothing will change. Just means more tilt at game theory fails for me watching games next year.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeVajofWAAAlst6.jpg)

Down at Wembley for Colts v Jags, which just so happens to fall on the day of my birthday. Thats not going to be messy at all.

If they want to eliminate injuries on kick returns then they may as well just stsrt at the 25 instead of going for half measures, shame as a fan i enjoy kick returns.

Have got tickets for the Bengals match at wembley in October, cant wait! Even though they only have one WR, will be an interesting and vital draft for them, hooefully be taking one of the top WR kids although have also seen some thinking theyll take offensive line. Bengals never do much in free agency so not too fussed about the lack of signings so far.

Still 30odd days till the drsft and im already looking forward to the season!

Unfortunately i think the Steelers may reach the showpiece this year, especially if Lev Bell stays fit.

Texans have signed well although i think Brock is a risk, Jags again have signed well although Ivory being there has ruined him and Yeldon for fantasy. Shoukd be an interesting season

Definitely want to get in the fantasy league on here this year too.

If lafell and dansby sign this week I expect bengals go b.p.a first 2 rounds then look at need 3-7.Think a lot of u d f a get a shot at wr in camp this year with Alford and kumerow (burkhead in the slot?)

Quickfire question for you: with the first overall pick, the Tennessee Titans will:

A) Draft the superb, Seahawks-esque Cornerback Jalen Ramsey
B) Draft the monstrous Offensive Tackle Laremy Tunsil to protect its franchise Quarterback
C) Trade down to a team desperate for one of the above and take the best available.

Short of a really great offer (Washington, this is usually where you come in), B seems like a no-brainer to me. They drafted a tackle last season who can switch to the right. They've brought in a good running back and have a division that will be bolstering its defenses. Tunsil looks every bit an NFL starter.

b probably, Ramsey looks to go 2 or 3. couple of quarterbacks in the top ten too. 49ers might be trading into top 5 for one of them

i saw a comparison to ramsey as charles woodson. that would be some career. don't think you can go wrong with tunsil or ramsey but keeping mariota upright probably wins out

only a month away

As a fledgling fan is there anywhere to see a summary of the free agency moves ahead of the draft?  Or someone willing to post the key moves so far would be great.  Cheers!

biggest deals at top

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

As a Titans fan (I know - start following the NFL in the McNair, George era) I really hope we stick and pick Tunsil. We've seen what Murray can do behind a good offensive line in Dallas and establishing a decent ground game will allow Mariota to develop a potentially exciting relationship with Dorial Green-Beckham - convinced he's going to be a stud. Also, protecting Mariota from JJ Watt twice a year isn't going to do any harm - Zach Mettenberger never really recovered from the beat down JJ put on him two years ago thanks to a revolving door offensive line.

I don't know too much about the NFL, I watch it, I have small bets I try and play some fantasy for fun but overall my knowledge would be well below par. 

That said, I did like what I seen of Brock Osweiler when he came in for Peyton last season, so with the retirement of #18 I am surprised to see that he has moved.   I'd have thought he was a shoe-in to be the starter in Denver this coming season.   

What happens now with Denver do they draft a QB?  Aren't they going to be last to pick does that mean they will struggle to pick up one of the better QB's? 

He was a free agent

His relationship soured with the team when he was benched for Manning mid game towards the end of the season. check out you tube for his reaction on the bench

So Denver made a good offer to keep him but he chose to go elsewhere. obviously Houston have a lot of potential, but haven't had a quarterback for years

Denver have been investigating the free agent market (and Kaepernick, most publically) and are widely assumed to want to draft Paxton Lynch at 31 in the draft, the 3rd ranking qb in the draft

they may need to trade up to get him as multiple teams will be looking to trade back into the back end of the first round to leapfrog Denver

expect them to go into 2016-2017 with a free agent vet, a rookie to back up and rely on that defense again to keep them competitive

with oakland making huge strides, the chiefs very solid its going to be one of the tougher divisions next year

Excellent thanks, Just stumbled across this and it makes sense and confirms your thoughts. 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/25536095/heres-why-john-elway-is-right-not-to-panic-over-broncos-qb-situation

I think I might lend my support to the Jags this year.   I love having no emotional tie to the NFL so I don't feel bad chopping and changing. 

No bad thing supporting Jags if you already have a team. Get to see them every year in London too.

Denver acquired Mark Sanchez from Philly in a trade when they realised Ossie might be on his way. Not really the QB you want starting for you if you can help it but probably in the top half of back up QB's. If they are going to get Kap it seems likely to be soon as his salary is gtd at about 11 million with San Fran if he is on the roster on April 1st. In terms of starting calibrate QB that isn't really a lot of money, think Bradfird signed for about 18 million a year and Ryan Fitzpatrick who is playing a cute game of chess with the Jets at the mo wants 16 million ( well that's his starting negotiating number so he will really be looking for slightly less). If Denver don't get Kap then Fitz would seem to be the next logical target. After that it is probably a case of drafting a QB and seeing if they beat out Sanchez for the starting job over the summer.

They won the Superbowl with statistically the worst QB in the league last season, so while losing Osweiler and Manning at the same time might seem bad, it really doesn't matter that much, they just need someone to steer the ship as Manning did when he came back.

Iiirc Osweiler has gone for $17m a year, and he hardly proved himself in his time at Denver, they obviously felt it a worthwhile risk, and as stated he apparently wasn't best pleased at being replaced by Manning during the run to the SB.

Sanchez is by no means great, but is he a step down from what we've seen so far from Osweiler? and does it really matter?

Fitz is 33, has had one good season, making the apparent $16m a year seem rather high, although I do think he deserves more than the $7m that the Jets who have offered, which is frankly pretty insulting given that he was a starter last season, and you'd assume will be again.

However as said above, I would expect a move to be made for someone else to come in whether FA or Drafted

Yes, and yes. Although he looked a solid backup in Philly in 2014 and some Philly fans wanted him to start over Bradford last year, but when Bradford eventually got injured he came in and totally sucked. I still remember the red zone pick in the 4th quarter of the game Bradford got injured in when down by 1 or 2 points, and it's right up there for most boneheaded QB play by someone not called Colin Kaepernick last season. He's just far too inconsistent, really doesn't complement the Broncos' defence at all to have such an errant QB who is likely to give away points/field position at any moment. The Broncos don't need a great QB by any stretch, but they do need someone who isn't going to turn the football over. Their defence can win games 9-7, 7-6 if that's what it takes, but that's no good if the other team are able to score on defence, or are already in field goal range when they get the ball back. When Peyton Manning came back into the starting lineup last year, him not turning the ball over was a huge deal. And Sanchez can't be a game manager.

The Broncos play Carolina and NE next year @ Mile High. NE is HUGE because #1 seed implications, lose that and you're a game behind the Pats, which basically becomes 1.5 games as the Pats will almost certainly have the division record tiebreaker because LOL AFC EAST. Lose that and the road to the Superbowl for the Broncos goes through Foxborough. All of a sudden, getting to the Superbowl just became a whole lot tougher. And Denver ain't beating Carolina in a million years with Sanchez at QB, either.

If they start dropping games in the division to the Raiders and Chiefs too, which they easily could with Sanchez at QB against a quality Chiefs D, and a Raiders D that ain't too shabby either, then they're in big trouble. AFCN has 3 teams that could all potentially win 12 games if they didn't have to play each other IMO, but is usually a lock for 1 of the wildcard spots at 10-6 or 11-5. Assuming AFCN is lock for 1 wildcard spot, that leaves 1 more, and you'd favour whichever one of Houston/Indy doesn't win the division for that because they get to play the Titans/Jags twice, whereas even the Chargers in the AFCW aren't an easy game. (Yes, I know the Jags are no pushovers, but they're probably an easier game than the 3rd best team in the AFCW)

I think if the Broncos go 10-6 and don't win the division, they'll struggle to even make the playoffs. And if they're to get to the Superbowl, that game against New England in the regular season becomes an absolute must win. Really is Superbowl 50.5 in terms of importance to both teams IMO. You ain't beating New England with Mark Sanchez lol.

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IMO, the key to the Broncos QB situation in 2016 is actually a guy who a lot of people probably hasn't even heard of, Trevor Siemian. Was the 3rd string QB behind Manning and Osweiler in his rookie year, but everything coming out of Denver about him in recent memory seems to suggest that the coaches think pretty highly of him.

It's very unlikely he's going to have a chance to start in Week 1 this year. However, everything I've read about his development makes it sound like the Broncos are pretty impressed with him so far. I don't know whether that translates into him seeing any meaningful snaps any time this year, but the impression I get is that if his development continues then could he potentially start further down the line.

If so, then that affects free agency decisions. If you think Siemian has a decent chance to start any time soon (This season, or start of 2017), then you're probably better off holding on to a 1st/2nd round draft pick that you might use on Glennon/Rookie and maybe going after someone else to compete with Sanchez/Siemian for a conditional pick (Or maybe pick up McCown to start if the Browns cut him after they signed RG3).

The other option is trading to get Mike Glennon. However, if you think Siemian is anywhere in the picture going forwards, why would you spend probably a high draft pick to trade for Glennon, then have to pay him next year, when you can keep the draft pick AND Siemian is on a rookie contract for 3 more years, allowing you to keep a couple of extra players on the roster. Basically, if the Broncos don't do anything exciting at QB, I think it means that Siemian is going to be the guy in the medium/long term.

well well well

the rams love one of the quarterbacks then

the titans get a lot of picks to build around mariota

* throws half an article out the window *

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CgAXK1FXIAIusCV.jpg)

Wonder where Tunsil ends up after the Rams Titans trade..

3 chargers?

4 cowboys? 4 somewhere else?

not much lower than that

If the Browns don't fancy Goff reckon hue Jackson might trade down.

i am coming round to thinking it might go qb, qb

rams QB at 1

eagles or 49ers trade with browns to get 1 at 2. eagles were trying to get to 1 apprently and have been all over scouting quarterbacks

maybe then lynch goes top 10 too

browns, like titans, then get a lot of picks to rebuild a roster.

Gut feeling for your Cowboys.Ramsey Bosa maybe?

Schedule out tonight bet we get steelers game 4 for burficts return.

Rips up colour coded, finely tuned mock draft.

Gets fresh piece of paper.

Gets scribbling...

I am amazed so many people have been saying the Rams will take Wentz. They need Goff IMO and he ticks the additional box of being a California boy with all the marketing that brings for a franchise moving to LA.

Makes far more sense that the Niners, Eagles and Jets wanted Goff (or at least might have wanted Goff) and the Rams made the call they simply had to make to get their man. It's a superb piece of business for Tennessee but it could work out well for LA, too.

I was all for the Titans taking Tunsil but this deal is too good to reject. That AFC South is really turning around, at long last.

As for Cleveland, I say trade down in what isn't a stellar QB year and run with RG3, with a developmental guy underneath for one year. They can take Best Available without even the smallest fear of trouble. Any of RB/WR/DE/OT/DL/S would do! More picks this year would make sense. Not like they won't be drafting top ten next season is it?

Makes me laugh seeing all the journos seeming to think the decision hasn't been made on which one to draft.

Would be nice to have a home opener,7th straight season starting on the road.

i wanted one of the QBs, which are likely to go 1 and 2 now

Lynch may still be a possibility maybe with a trade down. depends how highlty they rate him (word is very high)

Ramsey if he is there, maybe Zeke Elliott would be my favourite 2 non QBs

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=66859.0

Please see above thread.

About a trip i'm planning this year. Anyone with any experience of the places mentioned or games and what to do/not to do would be great.

Thanks

The Von Miller v Cam Newton love in just gets better and better.

(http://cdn.chatsports.com/cache/65/bb/65bb2453b95ea1f90396e5456234b7cb-original.jpg)

Any ideas when the pre-season game are announced?  Hoping for 49'ers or Oakland in August!

Cant see them on NFL site, but searched and found this

Hopefully its correct!

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/schedules/preseason

Cheers.  The LA game may work, think we'll have left SF by the 14th.

A nice article, explaining just what a mess the Bills are in:

http://www.theherdreport.com/posts/2016/4/14/why-the-2016-offseason-is-so-pivotal-for-the-buffalo-bills

In other news, Rob Ryan sleeps at the office three nights a week and Rex Ryan is introducing Donald Trump tonight.  

Any good QBs lined up for the 2017 Draft?

eagles have traded for 2nd overall pick while maintaining bradford is starting QB and wont be traded

who are the eagles after cause it seems a big price to pay

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/article-1/Eagles-Acquire-No-2-Pick-From-Browns/0dc948c1-5d70-4725-a361-c34452054855

They are convinced they know who the Rams are taking (they say...)

They are drafting "the guy we want" and he will be the number 2 to Bradford, who they say won't be traded to Denver.

Sell the house for a backup quarterback. That is a month after you spent $20m on Chase Daniels. You sure Chip Kelly has left?

Joking aside, Bradford will be tradeable at the end of the coming season and, if it all falls into place, Wentz will be ready to go. The problem is Bradford doesn't have a lot of working body parts.

Second time in the last 40 years the top two picks were traded.

Makes you wonder why Dallas lost all those games at the end of last season. These teams do realise Winston and Mariota were last year, right?

There's a real possibility now that Ezekiel Elliot will be available still win the Raiders are on the clock. I think that could be a very exciting pairing.

Zeke is going top 10, maybe at 4. Won't last to dolphins or raiders, would need to trade up

Bradford is on a lot of money too (17m) so that could put people off if he doesn't have a good season this time around.

Seems probable that Goff goes to the Rams which means Eagles will get Wentz (although reports seem to suggest he's the better Qb I can't argue with the inside the huddle podcast that Goff fits the LA franchise image a lot more being a Califronia kid anyway.

Either way the Eagles must be fairly taken on both of them on the off chance that the Rams go for the other.

I'd be amazed if Zeke drops down to the Raiders. As said he should be going top 10.

Ironically I think this move actually helps the 49ers as they've got far more issues than just a Qb they cab go BPA get a solid first round pick and a few others and draft a Qb in the top 10 next year too.

You surely take Ramsey at 4? Arguably the best player in the draft in the area you're weakest. He could go to Miami, although they need cover for their ageing defensive superstars. Dodd or Lawson if available would make sense.

Matt Miller's latest 10:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CggVUSKWwAAc2oo.jpg)

Don't agree with the pick at 3. Ravens would be delighted to get Tunsil. He won't get past Jacksonville if he didn't end up in San Diego.

Think the 49ers have 12 picks this year. Even Chip Kelly should be able to find someone he won't fall out with out of that lot.

We have Latavius Murray already, so think it's pretty unlikely we take a RB at 14. I would be okay with it if we did take him, as he'd probably be the best player on the board if he falls that far, and I can see what adding a second quality RB would do for us even though it's not a need that we have to fill at this point in the draft. Giants @ 10 seems a very plausible landing spot even though they have other needs too, and Dolphins don't have Lamar Miller any more cos he's gone to the Texans. So if he gets past the Dolphins who are immediately above us, I'll be amazed. Would be totally okay with taking him at 14 if the opportunity arose, but it's very unlikely he gets to 14, and it's not that likely we take him there if he does.

Much more likely we draft on defence, probably at Linebacker. Aldon Smith I think is suspended for the whole of next year as it stands, and we cut Curtis Lofton too. We picked up Bruce Irvin but I'd still like to see us take an OLB, especially if we plan on using Khalil Mack at DE a lot again next year then we could use a really good "backup" OLB who will get significant playing time. Reggie Ragland is a decent option to replace Curtis Lofton in the middle, too, and would probably be my pick.

If we don't take a linebacker then we'll probably get a Corner or Safety. We need to find someone to 'replace' Charles Woodson, and D.J. Hayden hasn't lived up to expectations for a first round pick at CB either. Looking at some of the teams above us though, I expect a few CBs going off the board early. Is the 4th best corner in the draft the best way to use the 14th pick? Would expect there to be better value for the pick at other positions, then grab a corner in the 2nd round.

We'll probably pick up a couple of RBs later on and pick up some undrafted free agents though, the depth chart is pretty grim after Latavius Murray. We'll probably use a 3rd/4th on a RB who'll be pencilled in as the backup, then bring in a couple of UFAs to compete for the job/roster spots in preseason.

It's not likely, I grant you, but stranger things have happened. If he's still on the board when you're on the clock, it's a no brainer to take Zeke. Giants should take him but they are a barmy bunch. And yes I backed them last year!

A good third down back is exactly what Carr needs and I trust the Raiders right now to make good decisions. Haven't said that in a while!

What time does the draft start and is it on tv?

The last couple of years, the draft has been shown live on Sky Sports. Will start around 0100 I think.

sky should cover the first round

www.nfl.com stream nfl network free for the three days


Thursday 28th 8pm ET: The first round

Friday 29th 7pm ET: The Second and third rounds

Saturday 30th Noon ET: Fourth to seventh rounds

NFL – Verified account ‏@NFL

"The San Diego @Chargers could likely trade out of the #3 overall pick."  http://snpy.tv/1Sqr9Vq
11:45 a.m. - 23 Apr 2016


This is getting silly now...

Brady's 4 game ban has been reinstated by the Supreme Appeals Court in America.

Any mock draft competitions about? Anyone know of good sites for it running comps?

Tighty has piqued my interest with his 2004 boss moding. I fancy Darvin Mooning my way to the place money.

Ourlads.com

Seven rounds?! That's an awful lot of research.

Anything nearer one round?

Check nfl.com

Tal's mock draft (subject to fourteen more versions in the next 48 hours):

1. LA - Goff - QB
2. PHI - Wentz - QB
3. SD - Tunsil - OL
4. DAL - Bosa - DE
5. JAX - Ramsey - CB/S
6. BAL - Bucknor - DE
7. SF - Stanley - OT

Trade alert! Oakland and Cleveland trade picks.

8. OAK - Elliott - RB
9. TB - Hargreaves - CB
10. NYG - Floyd - OLB
11. CHI - Lawson - DE
12. NO - Lynch - QB
13. MIA - Apple - CB
14. CLE - Jack - LB
15. TEN - Conklin - OT
16. DET - Robinson - DT
17. ATL - Ragland - LB
18. IND - Decker - OT
19. BUF - Reed - DT
20. NYJ - Dodd - DE
21. WAS - (Ryan) Kelly - C
22. HOU - Coleman - WR
23. MIN - Treadwell - WR
24. CIN - Ogbah - DE
25. PIT - Jackson III - CB
26. SEA - Ifedi - OT
27. GB - Lee - LB
28. KC - Rankins - DT
29. ARI - Joseph - S
30. CAR - Spriggs - OT
31. DEN - Whitehair - OG

Anyone else fancy posting theirs?

Any views on the list above? Marks out of 31?

I can see a trade or two in the 17-24 range, as teams vie for particular players, but I am struggling to see where, based on the order as I've done it. As played, I think that stays as it is.

Best prices for the Superb Owl:

15/2 Seattle Seahawks
9/1 New England Patriots
9/1 Carolina Panthers
12/1 Pittsburgh Steelers
12/1 Green Bay Packers
14/1 Arizona Cardinals
16/1 Cincinnati Bengals
18/1 Denver Broncos
25/1 bar

Seahawks favourite? The three teams below them in this list should win their divisions. Seattle will struggle to win 11 games and might not make the cut. What's the bookies' reasoning?

Tal, most versions i submit are no trades but as you have done trades

1. LA - Goff - QB
2. PHI - Wentz - QB
3. SD - Buckner - DE
4. DAL - Ramsey CB/S
5. JAX - Bosa - DE
6. BAL - Tunsil - OT
7. Trade MIA Elliott - RB.
8. Trade OAK - Hargreaves - CB
9. TB - Stanley -OT
10. NYG - Floyd -OLB
11. CHI - Apple - CB
12. NO - Rankins - DT
13. SF - Lawson - DE
14. CLE - Ragland - LB
15. TEN - Conklin -OT
16. DET - Decker -OT
17. ATL - Jack - LB
18. IND - Jackson - CB
19. BUF - Lee - LB
20. trade DEN - Lynch- QB
21. WAS - Kelly - C
22. HOU - Coleman - WR
23. MIN - Treadwell - WR
24. CIN - Doctson - WR
25. PIT - Ragland LB
26. SEA - Whitehair - OG
27. GB - Robinson - DT
28. KC- Fuller - WR
29. ARI - Joseph - S
30. CAR - Alexander- CB
31. NYJ - Cook QB


fancy a competition?

1 points for getting a first round pick
upgrade to 3 points first round pick to right team

winner buys the other a cuppa next time we meet?

Go on then.

:D

I'll get my Dante Fowler shoes ready to watch it on Friday morning.

If Tunsil is still there at 5 I think the Titans will try and move back up.

Terrible news...

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_FfrVqHXbw

RIP First Take  :'(

thank heavens for that

horrific pundit, terrible show

unlucky Fox sports, dumbing down coming your way.

All those ESPN shows where they argue black is white for the sake of a debate like Around the Horn or Pardon the Interruption are garbage...

But Stephen A v Skip is by far the best

Pardon The Interuption is fantastic!

Wilbon and Kornheiser >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Smith and Bayless.

The cringiest part is always whenever these shows have to discuss soccerball. At least Steven A has the decency to say he has no idea about the sport. It'd be like me offering punditry on ice hockey (and calling it ice hockey) because I used to play some game on the megadrive 20 years ago.

Letterman, America's Parkie, looks baffled as John Oliver explains the football league system to him:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJZEcneHZNY

Camel, how would you price up Tal v Tighty in a Draft-off?

Was hoping the Steelers would be bigger. Hurts to say it but I think they'll get there this year. Unfortunately don't think the Bengals will do too well this season, the Ravens won't be that bad again. Steelers are a very good team. And Bengals schedule isn't the easiest either apart from no East coast matches which helps

Incredible as it may seem, the NFL draft bewilders me as much British football bewilders Letterman.

In your respective lists, I know a little about maybe 8 players (that might be an exaggeration!) and I've heard the names of about half.

Studying the draft would involve listening extensively to the views of Kiper and Mayock, who would be in my top 5 most annoying analysts of any sport.

I will watch the start of tonight's coverage only because I've got a bet on who the first player drafted is and apart from that, I will read all the analysis of how each team drafted after the event.

The whole hoopla of the event mystifies me by somewhat, I would rather study a class 6 handicap at Bath, than try to work out which LB Buffalo will draft in the 3rd round.

you don't have to listen to Kiper and Mayock

a lot of the local guys just as knowledgable, closer to the teams

its like a giant game theory puzzle, as fascinating to me as when i first discovered it around 2002

as an individual, nothing better than watching some film (not even the coaches film but a college game or a highlights package) deciding you think Randy Mcrunningback from Nebraska is going to be the next big thing and following him from an 18yo  freshman to the NFL, seeing where he is picked etc

Bewildered is probably the wrong word.

If you enjoy college football as much as NFL (I don't, far too many mismatches and too much pressure on young kids for my liking) I can understand why you'd enjoy the draft and all it's nuances.

Just seems like starting from a standpoint of knowing virtually nothing, to having an understanding deep enough to know what is happening exactly and why, seems like a task far too daunting to achieve.

Stephen A is superb, and even better when Skip is winding him up.

Viewing for the fishcakes like myself, rather than the finer palates, like Camel & Tighty ;D

Can someone tell me in Bullet Points how this Draft Works?

Like why would teams give up #1 Pick and Stuff?

No idea but will watch it anyway. lol

Goes reverse order on how the teams finished the previous season

So the Titans had the worse record. So they were first pick. They traded out because they felt they'd achieve more with more picks further down the draft instead of taking Laremy Tunsil and only really strengthening that position. And the Rams traded up as they've just moved to LA and currently have an average QB. They need a face of the franchise so are probably gonna choose Goff.

The Titans now have 5 picks in the top 75 (or so) which means they can seriously strengthen their team. Same as for the Browns. They are so inadequate at so many places, it benefits them to take more picks rather than a top pick.

I've actually got all my draft 'knowledge' from listening mainly to the nfl.com podcasts. Dj and Bucky are very good and have had 3 or 4 a week over the last few weeks. The fantasy live podcast is a decent listen too. Around the nfl and Dameshek are both good for a laugh with the idea of talking football.

Then got the fantasy football guys. The fantasy footballers and footballguys.com all of whom offer varying knowledge and are either humorous or just plain random. Either way a good listen.

NBA draft seems a lot more straight forward than the NFL one just because of squad size.  Quite enjoy watching the NBA one but have never watched the NFL one.

Americarnage podcast is a good one for all American sports, not least because it features Mike Carlsen and Nat Coombes. Also any discussion where they suggest Jimmy Garropolo is a member of the Sopranos is frankly just funny. Cue accents.

The draft is essentially an exercise in levelling the playing field. The worst teams get to pick the best players, fill gaps in their team and build for the future. The best teams have to wait.

Of course, some teams pick badly, some pick players based on want over need, some just get plain unlucky. Conversely, some good teams have excellent scouting systems and outstanding technical coaches that can find diamonds in the rough and make them sparkle.

The oft-trotted one is Tom Brady going in the sixth round. That was mostly luck, as he was an average at best QB when selected and looked very unathletic at the combine.

Tennessee will be able to make a series of good decisions and can afford to take a risk or two because of how many picks they have high up in the draft. Cleveland might well trade down again to get even more picks over the next two years. Those two teams have needs all over the team: why spend it all on one guy for one gap when you can get five gaps plugged with solid talent?

Some teams just need a couple of pieces to complete their puzzle and can afford to gamble on a potential superstar.

The fun part is seeing the teams clearly torn between picking who their analytics department says they should take and who the GM or owner wants. Think about if Chelsea were on the clock...

Cheers.

Big rumour bengals take fuller or doctson if there still on the board..

From what I've heard I'd prefer Doctson or Coleman to Fuller. Even Michael Thomas. I know they lost 2 Wrs. But anyone coming in will be 4/5th target behind Green Eifert Bernard LaFell   

But supposedly Fuller just has his pace and is prone to drops due to having 'tiny' hand size and arm length

Fuller fits the Sanu role of end arounds and gadget plays due to his speed.Think it's a smoke screen and we go defense rounds 1 and 2.

Generally go BPA which I get the felling would be defence, saw this tweet earlier that suggests first choice is D

Take a look at @JoeGoodberry's Tweet: https://twitter.com/JoeGoodberry/status/725642987645100036?s=09

question about the draft

if you are drafted in say 3rd or 4th round and get released and then no one signs you do you still get paid and for how long?

has any player been drafted in 1st round and then released ?

Rookie contracts are 4-5 years and its cheap Labour. If released are paid value of contract, all are slotted at signing. Yes even top picks can be huge busts.look up Ryan leaf and jamarcus Russell

so a 24 year old being drafted will get paid peanuts till he is 28/29 and beat up?

1st round picks paid well. 2nd round less etc and so on. Rookie min salary is $450k. The main opportunity I'd to get a second contract, 4 years into a potential 10+ years career and make Jay financially then. 256 rookies drafted each year, plus undrafted free agents and well under that will stick on rosters each year

so a rookie gets signed then dropped will get at-least $1.8 million and a college education?
so a nice start to adult life?

I'm not aware of any players being drafted in the 1st round then being released before the start of the regular season in the same year they were drafted, if that's what you mean. Plenty get cut after a couple of seasons though.

Recent examples would be Johnny Manziel, drafted 22nd a couple of years back getting cut, and Trent Richardson got traded from Cleveland to Indy, then cut by the Colts after being taken with the 3rd/4th pick a few years ago. Probably will become less common than it was before the rookie contracts came in, because players back then could be signed to longer contracts, so cutting a player 5 years into a 7 year rookie deal might not necessarily have meant they're a bust, simply that the team needed to make cap space.

wow i remember watching johnny get drafted think that was my first year in fantasy

he was expected to be a early pick but ended up near the bottom of the 1st round and they were saying that
his misbehavior had cost him millions

i expect he will still be on a very good contract for next couple of years even if no one picks him up

ok how much time will the rams and the eagles run off the clock before making the picks they have traded so heavily for?

I can answer this one!

As soon as they on the clock, the team will call their player. The coach and GM will have a quick chat "Welcome to the 8-8 Rams Jared. Looking forward to working with you"

And then pass the details on to Rog.

Pprobably take 5 minutes in all.

*taps watch*

Surely the NFL draft doubles up as the World Cup of Filling Time By Summarisers.

The only player I've read much about pre draft is Robert Nkemdiche.

He seems like a complex, intelligent and interesting kid. I am rooting for him.

I've just found out he has picked Bowie as his walk on music.

I'm REALLY rooting for him now.

So Jerry just couldn't resist the star RB in the end, think Jax and Balti are over the moon to have Ramsey Tunsil and Buckner available to them at 5 and 6.

tal goes 3-2 up on tighty for correct teams

Surely not?

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/poor-timing--laremy-tunsil-takes-down-twitter-video-of-him-and-a-bong-001502430.html

literally a huge schoolboy error.

Maybe the stupidest thing anyone has done today.

seems his Twitter was hacked but incred spite to do that just before the draft. Tenneesse traded up to 8 now, its getting interesting.

These guys really are not the intellectual elite

Ahhh the old "my account was hacked" line.

Good one.

I remember the time Ian Botham's Twitter was hacked just moments before he sent a photo of his middle stump to some woman who was not his wife.

;o) tradetastic now Keith

no wonder his nickname is Beefy

been search the web for rookie contracts since my earlier posts seems like tunsils twitter post looks to have cost him about 10 million

from last years picks


http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2015/05/01/2015-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections/#b92fa276d0f3

My blondepoker account is hacked around 3 times per year.

Usually just before a disagreement with Woodsey, BigAdz or Mantis.

Why wasn't I following Tunsill on Twitter?

It would have meant backing Stanley to be the first OT to be drafted would be a great bet.

Tunsil and Jack could end up being incred value for teams willing to take the risks attached now.

Saw a picture of the kid in the Green Room.

Looks absolutely desolate. You'd need a heart of stone not to feel sorry for him for him right now.

La'el Collins went undrafted after his ex-gf was murdered last year.

He ended up starting on the best OL in football.

he did didn't he, what an incredible thing to happen and it's changing the entire expected draft order too.

I was thinking of last year too Keith, I suppose as a long term pick even allowing for a potential ban he must be value now?

Saw  a doc earlier tonight that said a rumour went around in 94 that Warren Sapp had failed 7 drugs tests in college and he fell like a stone too.

To be fair to Laremy Tunsil, I'd upload a video of myself smoking pot and pretend I got hacked if I thought I might fall to the Cleveland Browns, too.

lol

Apparently the video is 5 years old.

So, almost unbelievably, the hacking excuse is probably true.

Assuming it's a friend who had the video, with friends like him, who needs enemies.

I think he'll still go in the first round if it really is 5 years old. Seahawks will snap him up if he lasts that long.

His step father posted it?

wow thats some crap

they just mentioned it might be his step father, sure I read somewhere his step father is suing him already for assaulting him.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2636100-laremy-tunsil-sued-by-stepfather-over-june-domestic-violence-incident

jerry springer needs to meet this family

lol, what a turn of events. Miami could have got some value there.

yeah the guy was likely best guy in the draft

think tighty is 4-3 up in correct teams

Mayock is king of the aftertimers.

Every time he gets a pick right, he flags it up.

No mention of his picks otherwise.

Jane Coaston ‏@cjane87 6m6 minutes ago Washington, DC

Remember: Tunsil is being sued by his stepfather for "emotional distress" when Tunsil allegedly stopped him from attacking his mother.

Mayock mentions two WRs as possibles for the Texans.

Texans pick a different WR.

Mayock "Just as I said, it was obvious the Texans would pick a wide receiver"

So William Jackson III. Another corner. Not surprised they went a bit left field. With the big Wrs all gone I reckon theyll address that in the second round as there's not much difference in receivers now those few have gone. Hopefully Michael Thomas will still be around.

Interested to see who takes Derrick Henry. He's a beast who could easily fail in the nfl. But looks like he'll be entertaining anyway

24 correct names

7 to the right team. goff, wentz, conklin, lynch, decker, rankins, treadwell

(17 x 1) + (7 x 3)= 38

now to do Tal's

23 correct names

7 correct team goff, wentz, ramsey, hargreaves,conklin, treadwell, ifedi

(16x 1) + (7x3) = 37

GG WP.

Can't believe neither of us decided the potential number one overall pick two weeks ago would have a video posted on his twitter account an hour before the draft of him smoking pot...

Highlight of the draft so far, for me - https://vine.co/v/iPI0jtFiFtA

Patriots' 3rd round pick, former Pats RB Kevin Faulk comes out to announce the pick, with a Tom Brady jersey on under an unbuttoned suit jacket.

"With the 78th pick, the New England Patriots AND Tom Brady select Joe Thuney, North Carolina State"  ;ifm;

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000658177/article/kevin-faulk-supports-tom-brady-at-nfl-draft

Better quality video

Happy with Tyler Boyd for the Bengals

Jags taking a risk on Jack looks good for them. They'll be a good watch next year. Cowboys have taken some crackers (although injured)

The AFC South is the division to watch this year. I wonder what price the Colts will be to finish fourth.

As for the Cowboys, I'm convinced they made a mistake taking Elliott. They have RunDMC and Alfred Morris who can carry the rock 20 times a game without issue and are both good enough to make use of an excellent offensive line. You or I could get 500 yards in this team. Instead of getting help in an area they need it (DE, secondary), they instead decided to please the fans and take a guy who won't be so much above what is there in 2016 (he will be in 2017).

The bit in brackets above is precisely why I can't get my head around the choice of Jaylon Smith in the second round. Tony Romo has 2 years left at most. It's a winnable division in 2016, so make the defense strong enough to win the ball in field position. No, what they do is draft a guy who won't be around until next year, when he might not have a quarterback to win the ball for.

It's really hard to understand the mentality. What is the strategy? Elliott is a great pass protector? Lovely. He's going to get tired of 17 stone blokes pushing him during play actions, though.

Tighty, what's your take on it?

Conversely, I'm amazed that the Bills have drafted very sensibly. That doesn't seem like us at all.

i think Elliott is an exciting pick.

Immediate candidate for offensive rookie of the year, rushing behind the best OL in the game

won't come off the field, mcfadden is a cut candidate as he doesn't play special teams and his contract makes him very cuttable. was very much a bridge player to get you from demarco to a rookie, and he has done that job fine

mcfadden got 1100 yards in 12 starts last year but the OL had to change substantially as he couldn't run into a zone blocking scheme which they like to run. He only got 3 rushing touchdowns

Elliott takes that OL back to what they are good at and should be substantially better than what they had in 2015.

think 1500 yards+, 10 or so touchdowns if he plays all 16

He blocks too, better than most rb's you'll see so Romo protection goes up a notch

in theory he keeps the dallas defense off the field more, he sustains drives...we could hardly do anything on 3rd and 1 last year as defenses stacked the box. if you stack the box now, assuming romo is fit, the passing game might get you and if you don't stack it elliott will

so its a "win now" pick, which sort of goes with romo having a couple more years and the two QBs not being available when dallas drafted

in isolation, fine. we then tried to trade back in and get paxton lynch which made sense too, develop him for a couple of years, but denver had a better trade offer


i then thought immediate defensive help was likely in rounds 2 and 3. i was stunned to see them pick jaylon smith who is likely to need a redshirt season. this seemed completely inconsistent with the strategy behind picking elliott

only a GM who isn't at risk of being fired, as he won't fire himself, can make that pick

now jaylon looks wonderful when fit, top player but its a luxury pick

so we have elliott/jaylon and a back up in the third round

the strategy just seems schizophrenic but this is really no different than we see every year as he is owner and GM

Isit there watching the draft and thinking about team A "yes, that makes sense" and team B "ok, good value" and then Dallas drafts and i spend hours working out wtf they are thinking. Nt so much the first round picks, which have been by and large very good...but the mid round stuff works less often than it should


the problem with the top of this draft was

- weak
- two top quarterbacks out of reach for dallas
- no pass rusher worth pick 4
- the top DB is a corner/safety hybrid exactly like the one they drafted in the first round last year
- we have an all pro OL, so don't need to pick high there

so i can understand elliott.

it was yesterday i struggled with.

Teams stacked the box against Dallas last year because Bryant was out and whoever was under center had to run it. That won't be the case this year.

Elliott might well be OROTY but Dallas are still one of four teams who can win their division. That to me is the problem.

i don't understand the problem? that's the same for any division

washington are improving fast. drafting really really well, smart man is their GM
giants are going to be decent. loved the pick of sterling shepard
eagles going to be competitive and more so if wentz becomes the franchise qb they hope

whatever we did at pick 4 doesn't change that. nfl east always going to be a bun fight, any year

there really wasn't a defensive player at 4 that would make the impact elliott will.

Fair enough.

Bosa was the guy for me but he'd gone. I would have gone Ramsey because you play Kirk Cousins twice a year and Eli twice a year and a CB/S with that much talent is going to find stray passes.

Ramsey would have been a perfectly understandable pick but not the slam dunk a real 20 sacks a year pass rush star would have been but there wasn't one in this draft.

I think he is a safety though, not a shutdown corner. We drafted a safety/corner hybrid number 1 last year

I think i know Elliott will be a star, i'm not sure Ramsey would be at cornerback. the jags are playing him at cornerback

Ramsey has bricks for hands, very few interceptions. If he is patrick peterson or richard sherman, then great. lets see

if there was a deion sanders, demarcus ware, michael strahan, jj watt, von miller etc etc sitting there and we passed on him for a running back however good the running back might be then i'd be pretty unhappy.

Tal and I were chatting about this last night Rich, the way teams approach the draft now is so different to the days of 'take the best man on the board when it gets to your pick'  and improve depth/value of your squad.

The tendency now just seems to be 'what do we need now' and then just draft to that need irrespective of the value you are getting with that pick, so mainly selecting players with a short term view. A couple of things struck me as quite odd (apart from trading up to take a kicker in the 2nd round that is), firstly Houston traded up one spot to take a WR at pick 21 when there was always going to be a run for WR in the 20-30 range and the general consensus was there really was no WR that stood out. It surely makes more sense to just sit to your turn and then take the best one on your board, not see who is the best on your board 1 pick earlier and then talk yourself into believing teams might trade over you and take that player. If he goes he goes, you then have a new best player on the board and take that guy and don't have to pay the price by giving away later picks to do that.

On top of that they did the same thing again in round 2, they traded up 2 spots with Atlanta to take a center who can also play guard. The two teams in front of them at the time they traded form that pick were the Jets and Atlanta who have Mangold and Alex Mack as their centers, two of the best in the game. Almost no way either of those 2 teams take a center with the picks they have before you (ok, a very small chance Jets might want to take someone to fit in behind Mangold as they struggled when he was injured last year but nobody ever expected Jets to be taking center here did they) Houston have traded up two spots to jump teams that were not going to take 'their' guy anyway and again given up a pick lower down to do that.

Back on the point of taking best players and not what you think you need now The Jets have taken another QB with their 2nd round pick. Last year they also took a QB  who is still with them. So 2 years on the trot they have taken a QB because they have some need there well above where they should be drafted. They now have Petty and Hakenberg on their squad for picks above their worth and are talking like Geno Smith will start if Fitz doesn't re sign. That would be happening if they hadn't reached for those 2 QB's anyway. Contrast that to The Bears who were again supposed to be taking a QB in behind Cutler but didn't fall for that and drafted down to let the ones that were happy to move up move up, got players in positions they wanted anyway lower down and stocked up extra picks too.

This draft what we need this year instead of best players can't work out long term can it? ( bar obv top QB's being targetted at the very top but even then the teams have given up an awful lot to take one player because they need that type now)

well its an art not a science. best player available with "need" breaking ties seems reasonable to me.

the best teams look at the roster in a couple of years time, what contracts are expiring etc and draft accordingly

i am not sure of you are agreeing with me or not. i liked the elliott pick, wasn't a need, definitely a top five talent in the draft. there wan't a "need" rusher there, so take best player available and go from there

we haven't even talked the buccs trading up for a kicker in the second round!

you see all sorts of stuff every year, thats the fascination of it.

the hoston trade up was odd. I loved Washington taking Doctson straight after. Hands down a better player than Fuller

I wasn't really thinking about The Cowboys here more a general approach thru the league. I thought they would take Elliot tho but I didn't think that was deffo the best way for them to go.

Was interesting to hear someone saying that Jaylon Smith was a really good pick as it was taking a top 10 player for next year for a 2nd round pick this year. If he has to sit the season out he is still going to be a good player for them and that kinda backs up the take the best player on the board approach because he was value having fallen so far. Elliot looks the complete back tho and does look the perfect fit.

my beef was really that we make a habit of

a) taking medical redshirts
b) taking character risks and thinking we can sort young kids out
c) taking projects

this puts a lot of variables into the draft that you don't need to put into an already quite random process

the hit rate on these three categories is consistently less than 50% for us. sean lee was a recent hit, many more weren't

a team like the ravens, who are consistently amongst the best drafters, rarely trade, take the safe picks every time and always draft well. mind you, you could then mention ray lewis to me, who was clearly a high risk pick

Will be happy if Jaylon turns into an all-pro, but the inconsistency of drafting elliott to help win now with a redshirt next who might never play again is quite stark 

I deffo see your point there.

Bengals bag Billings. Cracking pick at #124 would of been happy with him second round tbh

Peko and Atkins are good character guys for Billings to learn from.Great draft so far on paper for cincy.

Inside the jungle podcast were very keen on Billings. So I'm very happy and putting him along side Atkins especially is a great thing. Westerman another seemingly well chosen player for us. Although already saying Bodine is the starting center

Cowboys have their Romo replacement in Dak Prescott at 135 :|

Browns take their 4th WR

Did anyone see the fans forum with Kirk Cousins the other day?

What an engaging, open and interesting guy. Seemed to answer difficult questions fully and honestly.

So few of the cliches NFL players come up with in situations like that. Worth watching on catch up if you missed it.

Made me want to root for the Redskins next season.

I'm amazed the Raiders traded up to get Cook. Why? 4th rounder and a 5th rounder for a backup?

It looks like a strange move, I admit. But the more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

Matt McGloin, our current backup, is a restricted free agent (RFA). My understanding of how it works is there's a RFA minimum salary for next season, but if another team wants to sign him then we can either choose to match their offer, or let him go for a 2nd round pick. He's a solid backup but not worth anywhere near a 2nd round pick, so chances are that nobody will take him and he'll be our backup next year for the RFA price, with Connor Cook as our 3rd string QB to develop and compete for the backup job in preseason.

It's highly unlikely that anyone takes McGloin given the price. Guy's probably worth like a 5th rounder to a team suddenly in need of a QB when shit hits the fan during the season, but there's no way we get a 2nd rounder for him. Drafting Cook means we can try to get something for McGloin before he becomes a free agent, with Cook to become the backup long term/possibly win the job in preseason.

This move is more to do with 2017 onwards. We have to pay McGloin next year, so we'll probably let him go after this season if Connor Cook is good enough to be the backup going forwards, save some money and get a late compensatory pick for McGloin (probably making up for the 5th rounder we gave up this year to trade up). Worst case scenario, we still have the option to keep a solid backup in McGloin on the 2017 roster if things don't work out with Cook.

I like McGloin, so it's a shame that drafting Cook means this is probably his last season as a Raider. But this is a cap move with some decent upside if we can develop Cook and get a decent pick for him in a few years, or upgrade the backup QB spot.

Ahhhh, I forgot McGloin was RFA this season. That would explain it. Be good for Cook to develop under Carr as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers: NFL side uses robot training dummies
http://www.bbc.com/sport/american-football/36363989

Those dummies look quite handy, could certainly do a job in some Football League defences...

From the pen of the Buffalo Bills:

Reports (which also include radio reports, tweets, podcasts and blogs) pertaining to strategic and tactical information are strictly prohibited. This includes:

Referencing plays run or game strategy, including trick plays or unusual formations.

Reporting on personnel groupings, sub-packages, players who are practicing with individual units (first team, second team, goal line, offense, nickel defense, etc.), special plays, who is rushing the passer, dropped passes, interceptions, QB completion percentage, etc.

Media should not report on any injury situation occurring during a practice that is not open to the public with detailed speculation to the potential nature, severity of the injury or level of practice participation. Acknowledging an injury occurred is permitted, but anything beyond a general report would be purely speculative and possibly inaccurate.

Still and television photographers are not permitted to shoot or film injured players at a closed practice, even during the period that is open to the media. Filming of injured players rehabbing either before, during or after closed practices is prohibited.



I blame Dallas. They started this silliness...

At least with buffalo this will have little impact on anyone's fantasy teams.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjO-MzuWgAATw8a.jpg)

Michael Tanier – Verified account ‏@MikeTanier

OK. I will go to #Bills camp in this "ordinary fan" disguise, sit in the stands and Tweet specifics.

11/8 for the Steelers to win the AFC North is imo very big!

Bengals have obviously lost their 2nd and 3rd reciever and now without Tyler Eifert for a few games at the start of the season. Who scored 40% of their TDs last season. Boyd is unproven. Burkhead a slot reciever. Could do something. Kroft. Unproven backup TE.

The Steelers however could have Lev Bell back. If not D'angelo Williams is more than capable backup. Brown is top 3 Wr and even without Bryant they'll score a lot still. They play the Bengals early one while Burfict is still out too.

Not great to say as a Bengals fan but think anything over Evens is a good bet on them

RIP Buddy Ryan (father of Rex and Rob)

I remember him as the Eagles coach for several years.  He's probably more famous for his role with the 1985 Bears.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2016/6/28/12050308/buddy-ryan-eagles-head-coach-nfl-legend-defense-chicago-bears-1985-defense?_ga=1.75129298.1523330522.1409528280

from one of ryan's playbooks

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmCdKimWkAAOyes.jpg)

the 30 for 30 on the 85 bears, a team that got many UK fans into the NFL, is a must watch for the Ryan stuff.

Do we know if any of the UK bookies usually do division forecast betting? Had a quick look around and at the moment I can't find any offering it?

Yes but too early. Early August typically...

Cheers, will have a look around then, day off work so thought i'd see what was about... Steelers v Packers 33/1 for the Superbowl...

Actually seems the Betfred have the forecasts up already, so going to have a nose on those and see what's about, just priced up a longshot 5 fold for Division winners. Raiders, Steelers, Texans, Giants, Cardinals .. 250ish/1 ... Raiders are the biggest there obviously. But doesn't seem too impossible, not placing it yet as a lot can happen. Price on Steelers has dropped a lot since I posted above a month or two ago, even odds on on Skybet

All or nothing a season with the Arizona Cardinals is well worth watching for all those needing an NFL fix.Free to view on Amazon prime.

The inimitable Mike Tanier forecasts the season for Bleacher Report...



Bleacher Report has just what you need to get back in the NFL state of mind: a primer for everything you'll experience during the 2016 season. It's the football equivalent of that back-to-school circular that arrived on your doorstep this morning: Autumn is on its way, so mark your calendar for these key dates!

Saturday, Aug. 27: Hours before the Jets-Giants preseason game, the Jets' quarterback situation is thrown into turmoil when Bryce Petty injures his throwing hand by punching Christian Hackenberg for calling a fake punt in Madden 17. Petty claims the play was not fair because he still has not found the audible button. A desperate last-minute call to Ryan Fitzpatrick goes to voicemail while the quarterback shops for beard oil at an Austin flea market. The entire incident is blamed on Geno Smith.

Sunday, Aug. 28: The Vikings host the Chargers in the first game at sparkly new U.S. Bank Stadium. Adrian Peterson complains during warm-ups that the turf is "a little too springy." Minnesota state legislature immediately approves a $223 million bond referendum for less springy turf.

Wednesday, Sept. 7: The Supreme Court upholds the decision to overturn an appeal of the summary judgment to delay the reversal of the reinstatement of the vacation of the Deflategate suspension. "Does that mean I'm suspended?" Tom Brady asks.

Thursday, Sept. 8: Season opener. Broncos defeat Panthers 16-10. Von Miller, playing under the franchise tag, records 3.5 sacks and throws a touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders on a trick play. John Elway increases Miller's contract offer to include discount oil changes and an Amazon Prime membership.

Friday, Sept. 9, 7:45 p.m.: Cam Newton finally shows up for the Broncos-Panthers postgame press conference.

Tuesday, Sept. 13, 1:30 a.m.: Week 1 finally ends when Aaron Donald sacks Blaine Gabbert for a safety and a 5-3 Rams victory over the 49ers. You toss and turn yourself to sleep wondering why everyone gripes about the Pro Bowl but gives this awful annual Monday doubleheader a pass.

Sunday, Sept. 18: Bengals at Steelers. Special guest referees include John Cena, Ronda Rousey, Henry Kissinger, SEAL Team Six and the U.N. Security Council. It's a 1 p.m. kickoff early in the season, so the Bengals win and feel really good about themselves.

Thursday, Sept. 22: Jimmy Garoppolo leads the Patriots to victory against the Texans. Bill O'Brien tries to offer Bill Belichick a pair of second-round picks for Garoppolo during the postgame handshake but is tackled by Texans owner Bob McNair.

Sunday, Sept. 25: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Josh Norman I. The "Norman is overrated" tweets are scheduled for 1:25 p.m., when Beckham catches a six-yard slant. The "Well, actually, Norman was playing thumbs coverage in Cover 7 on that catch" tweets (by people who learned about strategy by calling audibles in Madden) are scheduled for 1:26. Your migraine is scheduled for 1:27. Beckham finishes the game with one catch for six yards.

Sunday, Oct. 2: The Colts face the Jaguars in London. According to the new exchange rates, Andrew Luck's salary for the game converts to 6 million farthings, 300,000 florins, 60 thruppence and a stag from Ye Royale Game Lands. In fairness, it would have been no less confusing before Brexit. Also, Allen Hurns is elected prime minister.

Sunday, Oct. 9: Tom Brady returns to the field to lead a 56-8 rout of the Browns. Citizens across America find themselves more energetic and optimistic, as if suddenly waking from a two-year shame spiral. But really, this is just one more damn thing that happens to the Browns.

Sunday, Oct. 16: J.J. Watt celebrates his second sack of Andrew Luck by flashing the money sign, ripping up an imaginary $140 million contract, and bringing a Fisher Price cash register onto the field and using a selfie stick to film himself cha-chinging it. The Texans' victory raises their record to 2-4. Talk radio spends Monday criticizing Cam Newton for smiling too broadly after beating the Saints.

Sunday, Oct. 30: The Broncos move to 6-2 with a 16-10 win over the Chargers. Mark Sanchez overtakes Von Miller for the team lead in touchdown passes.

Tuesday, Nov. 8 (Election Day): Bad news: Our next president made a shocking last-minute campaign promise to reopen Deflategate.

Monday, Nov. 14 : The 7-3 Broncos have won and lost every game by a 16-10 score, so they devise a new way to kick-start Paxton Lynch's development: a copy of Andrew Luck's contract dangling from a fishing pole in front of a treadmill. The fact that John Elway will only handle the contract while wearing oven mitts is considered a discouraging sign.

Thursday, Nov. 24: Thanksgiving. Adrian Peterson rushes 20 times for 74 yards in a Vikings loss to the Lions and complains about the play-calling. Ezekiel Elliott carries the ball 20 times for 74 yards in a loss to Washington; Jerry Jones complains about the play-calling. Colts running backs carry the ball 10 times for seven yards in a loss to the Steelers, but Andrew Luck doesn't dare complain about the play-calling. Calvin Johnson enjoys turkey with family and friends and wonders why the heck he didn't think of this retirement thing sooner.

Sunday, Dec. 4: Newton-Wilson VII. Yep, roman numerals. They are even prominently displayed on the NFL.com official schedule! Whose bright idea was it to give Newton-Wilson the Brady-Manning treatment? Oh wait…it was me. I'm sure the royalty check is in the mail.

Sunday, Dec. 11: The Packers lose to the Seahawks to fall behind in the home-field-advantage chase. Choose your own postgame storyline adventure: Is Aaron Rodgers' 21-of-28, two-touchdown game against the Legion of Boom a sign of a slump? Should Clay Matthews move to [insert position here]? Or, Is Eddie Lacy too skinny?

Sunday, Dec. 18: Steelers at Bengals. Steel cage around the field provided by Queen City Electrified Fencing and Razor Wire Incorporated. Late kickoff, late in the season, big playoff implications. Steelers win. This isn't neurosurgery, folks.

Sunday, Dec. 18: Broncos at Patriots. Paxton Lynch hears the Foxborough crowd and melts into a puddle of tears. Mark Sanchez accidentally crams a football into his helmet's ear hole. Broncos fans who have tried to make Tebow Time happen again with the "Clever Trevor Endeavor" fall into despair when Trevor Siemian throws three interceptions to Charles Tillman, whom the Patriots signed when no one was paying attention. Patriots win 16-10. John Elway tries to offer Bill Belichick two second-round picks for Jimmy Garoppolo but gets tackled by Bill O'Brien. Peyton Manning enjoys turkey with family and friends and wonders why the heck he didn't think of this retirement thing sooner.

Saturday, Dec. 24: The Rams beat the 49ers to raise their record to 7-8. Jeff Fisher is given the keys to the city of Los Angeles. Chip Kelly and Trent Baalke are now giving separate, simultaneous and contradictory press conferences.

Sunday, Jan. 1: The Cowboys, Eagles, Giants and Redskins all finish with 7-9 records. The NFC East is decided by the rare and unprecedented "119th tiebreaker": most six-yard slants completed against divisional opponents. See that: Josh Norman really is overrated!

Friday, Jan. 6: James Harrison sneers at his captors from inside an indestructible holding cell before a Steelers-Bengals game. "If he's our 'prisoner,' how come he looks like the only person who wants to be here?" a panicked Andy Dalton asks Marvin Lewis.

Saturday, Jan. 8: The Chiefs lose a playoff game when their two-minute drill actually stops the earth from rotating on its axis.

Tuesday, Jan. 10: A humiliating Bengals playoff loss brings the traditional results: Marvin Lewis remains the team's head coach, and both coordinators become head coaches for other teams. That unsettling sound heard throughout New England is Bill Belichick's laughter.

Sunday, Jan. 22: Newton-Wilson VIII in the NFC Championship Game. Wilson throws a touchdown pass to Doug Baldwin with the entire Panthers defensive line draped on him. Newton's comeback bid fails when he makes the mistake of throwing a 60-yard Hail Mary directly into Ted Ginn Jr.'s hands. Newton arrives for the postgame press conference in April. Marshawn Lynch celebrates his former team's return to the Super Bowl with a NSFW review of the 2017 Porsche Cayenne on YouTube (to be expected of a luxury car review).

Saturday, Feb. 4: The NFL hands out its awards. Brady wins MVP, Antonio Brown is Offensive Player of the Year, Watt gets Defensive Player of the Year and Ezekiel Elliott takes Rookie of the Year. Comeback Player of the Year goes to Chad Pennington, which tells you all you need to know about how the Jets' quarterback situation worked out.

Sunday, Feb. 5: Super Bowl LI. The Patriots take a 21-17 lead with two minutes left. The Seahawks drive down to the 1-yard line, where Russell Wilson is sacked because emergency left tackle Jimmy Graham (replacing the left tackle who started for the team throughout the playoffs: Drake) whiffs on a block of Dwight Freeney, whom the Patriots signed when no one was paying attention. Marshawn Lynch eats turkey while road-testing a Jaguar F-Pace and wonders why he didn't think of this freaking retirement thing sooner.

Monday, Feb. 6: Investigators discover that Rob Gronkowski's Super Bowl cleats were 0.05 of an inch longer than regulation. Attempts to reach Gronk after the game prove unsuccessful when his cellphone is found in the mud wrestling pool of a Houston gentleman's club.

Will CleatGate cast doubt on the Patriots legacy? Will Gronk make jokes about his extra-long cleats? Will Cardinals fans complain in the comment thread about their team not getting mentioned in this article? Those questions, and many others, are far too stressful for you to worry about in early July.

 

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter at @MikeTanier.

http://www.espn.co.uk/american-fb/story/_/id/16823583/why-nfl-players-never-make-nba-mlb-money-andrew-luck-mike-conley

Interesting read regarding NBA v NFL salaries now the NBA salary cap has ballooned this summer to monster new levels.

Can someone explain what a "franchise tag" is, please?

Been following the Von Miller story, and it seems he is refusing to play under a franchise tag. If only we knew what one of those was.....

It's given to one player per team to keep them there. I believe it restricts their contract which is why he's not happy because he was probably the best defensive player on the league last year he wants to get paid.  And seeing as Fletcher Cox got the biggest ever non-qb contract a few weeks back he will want more than that.

Seems it's in place so that owners can use the money they'd spend on their top player in other areas of the team to strengthen the team. So that player gets 'less than their worth' in the idea that better players can be brought in

Gotcha, thank you.

He was interviewed on TV, and seemed a decent and reasonable sort of chap.

He has been offered a lot more money in a long term deal but is not happy with it, and so a his team said he must accept it, or he gets put on a franchise tag, and Von said he'd rather sit out the season that accept the franchise tag thing.

Sounds to me like he has made a 5 bet.

I'd be surprised if he sits out the year. But Elway seems to be pretty hard nosed and blunt and if he doesn't think a player is worth it. He won't pay it. So who knows. I get the feeling they'll cave in and pay up especially after losing Malic Jackson, Trevathan and Talib shooting himself in the leg. They're gonna need to keep him seeing as they also don't really have a starting QB.

All points to the Raiders imo at 10/3 however as before I'll be waiting till later in the off season

the franchise tag is a way of protecting a team trying to do a deal with star player

the player is trying to get top dollar and a long term deal

but the club has to stay within a salary cap, so within reason wants to play hardball

we see this each year in various situations

the club places a franchise tag on a player. this does the following

- pays the player the average of the top five salaries in his position at the league. in this case this is LESS than Miller would get on the open market or should get from the Broncos, hence he is unhappy. NFL careers are short and a one year deal doesn't do much for him

- once a player is under a franchise tag any other club wanting to secure his services can only do so by offering the Broncos two first round draft picks, a valuable commodity in the salary cap era as rookies out of college are cheap, and first round draft picks should be the best players

a franchise tag can be rolled over next year too

Now Miller can sit out, but at least the club is compensated if it loses him but if he sits out its likely to delay that long term deal further

what usually happens is the franchise tag allows the club to exert some leverage and get a deal done.

Someone offered me odds on Johnny Manziel ever taking the field as a NFL player again.

I think the price he offered was value.

What % chance would you make it?

I'd say it's more likely he turns uo dead somewhere

What price Tony Romo gets injured in 2017?

high, but Manziel won't be the answer there.

He's a mess and we drafted a quarterback who we would go with

i would put it at 10-15% Manziel sees the field again. complete guess obviously

in his favour there aren't 32 NFL starting quality quarterbacks around

against him he might not one of them, even leaving aside his off the field issues

He's supposedly only at 140lbs as well which is way off match fit. Heard someone suggesting a year or two in the CFL would benefit him as it's more his game. But I think he'll just carry on getting wasted until his cash runs out or his does too much. Says something when his dad is talking about how worried he is about him killing himself and then he posts an image at the top of a gorge in Mexico mocking him

They offered me 50/1, which I thought was far too big.

It Matt Bush can get into the MLB (he was further away from the big leagues than Johnny Football is from the NFL now), I think it is more than possible.

I'd risk a few quid at 50s tbh despite what I've said. He's young. And who knows. Might sort himself out

He would have at least one 4 game suspension to see out if he returned (likely more), so he won't be a quick fix last resort for anyone. He's 2017 at earliest, say his people.

CFL would make sense. Maybe Jeff Reinebold can sort him out?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/657080852409552896/xTeSYF9Q.jpg)

Joking aside, if Buffalo make the playoffs this year, that probably means Tyrod Taylor will be demanding a new contract we can't afford to give him...and Rex does have form for taking on projects.

He was asked on inside the huddle this week actually (which maybe what you're referring to) The timber cats or whatever ridiculous team he coaches on have first pick on him

Deflate-gate: Tom Brady's four-match ban appeal rejected

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/36788846

Unsurprisingly Von Miller has signed a long term contract. 6 years $114.5m

According to rap sheet "Some details on Von Miller’s 6-year, $114.5M deal. $23M to sign. $42M fully guaranteed at signing. $70M in total guarantees. (A lot)."

No pressure, lad.

Le'veon Bell potentially out for first 4 games after missing a drugs test😃

And no point me trying to trade up for Zeke Elliott...

They're such lovely people those Steelers. Must of been hanging around with Martavis

** looks up likely top draft picks in 2017 draft **

ffs.

David "Future HOFer" Johnson will be the carrying the Gravediggers' hopes early on, methinks.

Josh Gordon conditionally reinstated, will serve a 4 game ban.

Was just coming to post this. Hopefully he'll get himself together and get going again. He was pretty damn good. You'd think he'd need the extra 4 games to get himself ready for the go anyway. Learning playbook and settling etc.

How long do we reckon? Does he play 12 games?

Browns have drafted heavily at wide receiver. There is a new quarterback for a change and they are hoping to build some support for Catfish Joe on the offensive line.

Let's be honest, if Travis Benjamin could get nearly 1,000 yards with them last season, it must be possible for someone highly rated to come in and do a job.

How does bringing back Josh Gordon help this new post-Manziel era?

Does anyone sign Ray Rice? He is saying he will donate his salary to charities helping the victims of domestic abuse.

Gordon was woth RG3 at baylor so if the Browns keep him then he at least has a previous relationship with his QB. Everyone expects the Browns to finish bottom of their division and to challenge the niners for first pick so in fairness there's zero expectation there which must be a good thing for him coming back, and although they drafted there Corey Coleman was the only expected to really do anything this season so he'll slot straight in if he gets the playbook and fitness I'd imagine

Commissioner has also bent the rules and allowed him to train with the team.

Cowboys😄

Bills training report, day 2 (per WKBW.com):

Rex Ryan surely couldn’t have been happy with the way the second training camp practice of the year was conducted. It was a sloppy effort that produced a lot of lost opportunities in the process. Passes were inaccurate, some accurate passes were dropped, and the penalties were voluminous. On one snap in particular, Tyrod Taylor dropped back in half speed due to the intended receiver ran at half speed, while the receiver on the opposite side put everything he could into the route. Things were clearly not on the same page for the offense, which led to Rex Ryan declaring that the defense had won the day. While a few players did well for themselves, the level of efficiency the offense ran with on Sunday was not at all exemplary. The offensive players weren’t the only ones committing penalties, the defense was just as guilty. All around, the day was one to forget and one that was full of rust from the offseason.

http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/7-bills-training-camp-observations-day-2-731

An early outing for the Three Stooges Triple Facepalm, methinks.

(http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/lummc/images/a/ae/Three-stooges-facepalm.gif/revision/latest?cb=20130617025952)

Have done a few write ups of my opinion on a couple of things on my blog if anyone is interested and I'm going to try to put something up once a week till the season starts then I'll get some proper tips there if anyone wants to have a nose.

When it comes season I will definitely keep an eye on here and see what's on people's minds

Whereabouts can I read your blog Cavey?

Nfltipsblog.WordPress.com wasn't sure whether I could post it or not. Obviously it's all opinion and it's all 37 days out from the start of the season! But I figure if I can show my workings then if they fail I get half credit anyway :/

Cheers had a read of your blog and Twitter.Personally love the under 1300 yards for A.J Green as expecting a lot of screens slants checkdowns in the passing game and a lot of pulling lineman in a run heavy game now ogbuehi gets the starting rt gig.

I'll have to have a listen to their new podcast and see what happens during the pre season. In fairness Boyd seems to have been making an impression too. Coach Lewis was re-iterating pound the rock in an interview too however that was more we'll keep doing what we've been doing rather than we'll run and run.

Hoping the individual markets will be out in the next few weeks, I'm on holiday next week anyway so I'll have another look when I'm back

Regular listeners of the Around the NFL Podcast will very much enjoy this:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/around-the-nfl/0ap3000000679556/Lil-Debbie-Invades-the-ATN-Podcast

"You're like the Donovan McNabb of hip hop"

:D

Feel free to post a link to it.

blonde works best in these spots with give & take, wise folks exchanging information, so no harm can come from posting a link to it. 

In fact, there you go, sorted.


https://nfltipsblog.wordpress.com/

Will be listening to this on the plane home from holiday! And thanks for posting the link, I do enjoy having a chat about nfl and know the chaps on here at the very least, come across as knowledgable. Mainly been writing a few things up when I'm bored, gives me something to do and has helped having an early look at some markets and trying to find something I'd consider value, also means I'm logging my thoughts at that time somewhere.

Bengals training camp hasn't been going too well so far. Kroft was karted off last week with a knee. So was Shawn Williams who's reggie nelsons replacement at Safety. So onto third choice TE Uzomah who's had 1 reception in his career

More Vegas money was bet on the NFL exhibition game, cancelled last night because of the surface, than 10 of yesterday's 15 MLB games

Crazy, bet millions of dollars are bet on pre season games as well.Are you gonna put up your NFL thoughts for this season on here or BE in the next few weeks?

just about to write them, maybe 10 days time all being well

FML didnt want to sign up to nfl gamepass for the full season this year as i get most of my viewing from sky espically with red button etc
but they dont have the preseason stuff so signed up on the 7 day free view tonight then canceled it straight away so they didnt take £140 from me

guess that was a mistake as they didnt give me the full 7 days just canceled straight away

Quiz question: How many games has Tyrod Taylor started?

Answer: Doesn't matter. The Bills are giving him a six year contract.

Tighty, any truth in the rumour the Bills and the Cowboys are going to be playing together this year and employing a brand new 1A/1B committee defense?

We can't have 11 available guys for week one...

Hard Knocks is coming to SkySports

Starting this Friday, 10:30pm, Sky Sports 2

great news, series link time

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqDLySlWcAADb7J.jpg)

Boom! Cheers.

Dunno if there's any Raiders/Packers fans ITT, but streaming the preseason game here. Packers starting OL + Lacy looked good, Hundley looked decent playing with the starters and definitely an upgrade over Tolzien if anything happens to Rodgers, albeit a small sample. Gonna be a hell of an offense to watch this season if they can keep everyone healthy, which has been the story for the last few seasons.

Raiders looked pretty meh so far, particularly on offense, although our new safety that we drafted in the first round impressed me in a couple of spots on the opening drive.

Has anyone got a view on anything that stands out on the individual markets? Seem only to be 365 at the moment

https://mobile.bet365.com/default.aspx?lng=1&zn=1&apptype=&appversion=&rnd=43504#type=Coupon;key=12-20464405-1-28861573-2-0-0-0-1-0-0-4063-0-0-1-0-0-0-0-0-719;ip=0;lng=1;anim=1

I noted a few that I'm already arguing with myself on

prices are up in lots of places

go via http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/betting-markets

I get an error on that link

Couldn't find individual records. Lots of most passing/rec/rushing yards markets. But couldn't find o/u?

this one? http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials

i tend not to do 10/11 each of two stuff over 17 weeks so wouldn't know about player o/u

hold on they are there too

bet365 eg http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/total-receiving-yds-julio-jones

I'm trying to put together a season preview type thing here by the end of the preseason. There are a few teams I'm cute on and one or two surprises I'm going to say won't make the playoffs (like the superbowl champions for instance).

Things are really busy for me ATM and it also obviously makes sense to wait for at least 3 games of the preseason to start the full prediction stuff. Also things like the LeVeon Bell situation to be determined.

Not sure of the level of detail as yet but it'll be something along the lines of finishing orders in the divisions, some projections of player performances and maybe a mock playoff route to the superbowl. Bills 4th in the AFC East anyone?

I'm going to have a few season long bets (probably leaning towards the unders in these o/u markets, the nearer to the off we get, because, as we know, the punters love betting on things to happen, rather than betting on them not to happen), but I'd hate to take overs on anyone now when they could get injured before we even begin. Maybe that's just poor mentality on my part but I am not a massive antepost guy in any sport.

Actually mentioned the other day on twitter that the Bills could be awful with all their injuries and suspensions and the Ryans there

We will start 2017 with significantly fewer injuries, suspensions and Ryans. 

Joey Bosa released by the San Diego Chargers.

The chargers are cheap. For bosa it will cost him a lot of money as there are better de's than him in next years draft

Chargers ''release'' a statement on Joey Bosa*

The kid is an ass-hat. He's going to make a fortune anyway. Why does he need/want the money so quickly when he'll make millions anyway. He was always going to get the money eventually. I hope no-one picks him up. But he probably will within the week

Chargers statement. I think... https://mobile.twitter.com/Chargers/status/768509903707123712/photo/1

No if he doesn't agree with the chargers he goes back into next years draft. No team has any money left in rookie pools

Excuse the noob question but I thought the deal with the draft was that you got picked, you had to play for the team that picked you and the salary and the length of the contract was all set in stone based on where you went in the draft.  So what is there to talk about?

This is why this is very rare. The 2011 cba basically slotted every draft pick to financial deals meaning hold outs and non signings became a thing if the past The chargers have though asked him to accept less than slot. The chargers have picked 11th to 25th since that cba, this is the first year they are on the hook for lots of money since quinten jammer and phillip rivers iirc

Ah. Sorry tighty. Wasn't aware of that. Thought he'd just go to free agency. Makes sense. So he'll be wasting a year doing nothing and presumably get drafted lower next year as he seems to be proving hard work.


Hadn't heard about them asking him to take less, I thought it was about how he's paid his bonuses. He wants all his signing on bonus up front. But the chargers don't do that. (although could be that he recieves less this year as they try to spread out that cash)

My understanding is the deal gets done if the bonus gets paid up front, which is standard practice. Revenue across the league from TV etc is spread equally, all franchises are wealthy. It seems a bit cheap not to pay him and lose the player in a rare year when you can draft a top ten talent

I see both sides. He's gonna get paid either way eventually. But his dad played didn't he. So obviously advising him and suggesting a holdout is a better idea.

As you say it's not like they are struggling for cash. But at this point I think it's them nit wanting a player to have the "upperhand"

But that is how they do business. Always have. How much power do the players need?

the Chargers have history

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqpXptdUsAInlx8.jpg)

Bonus deferral speaks to Chargers cash flow, but offset language only comes into play if Bosa washes out in NFL...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqpybZMUsAAafRx.jpg)

one analyst summarised as follows "meaning Chargers are signalling that they're cash strapped, & that they are preparing for a definite possibility of Bosa flopping in NFL"

"Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout

Rookie deals in top 5 don't have offsets and deferments though. @chargers want both."

Las Vegas Raiders trademark applications have been filed by the Oakland Raiders...

rumour is a change of ownership, and then the NFL gets to go to Vegas....(which is slightly odd given their attitude to gambling)

Tony Romo injured.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000691153/article/jason-garrett-tony-romo-has-broken-bone-in-his-back

In other news, today is a day of the week ending in "Y".

Ah poop. Was hoping 365 was still have his yards as a market. They quick.

Gotta be good for Zeke yardage though. I know Dak Prescott has looked good but he's had it easy so far. Simple playbook. Simple reads etc. Be interesting to see how he does week 1

Since Week 1 2015 & including the 2016 preseason Tony Romo has started 6 games and suffered major injuries in 3 of those 6 games.

i feel for him.

Hope we sink or swim with the rookie and don't block his progress with a vet. lets see what we've got and if it fails we'll have a high draft pick to work with next time round (couldn't get goff or wentz this may, tried to trade up for lynch and connor cook)

Dak Prescott was 5000-1 OROY before the seattle game

still a huge longshot, but you never know

25/1 for him now...

I've had a go at predicting the unpredictable. Enjoy. Discussion welcome:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67137.0

(Mods, don't mind whether you merge the threads, but as there is a lot of content, I figured I'd keep them separate)

Joey Bosa finally signs his rookie contract

Would just like to say thanks to Tighty and Tal for putting up their NFL previews/predictions in the last week or so.With the emphasis on parity and 32 teams it involves watching hours of footage and keeping up with constant depth chart changes...top work and good luck with the season bets.

I know a lot of the NFL guys enjoy watching & listening to Mike Carlson, well he is the Guest on the Sky Poker Grudge Match tonight, on SS3 from 10pm until Midnight.

In between the poker, Mike will be taking questions from Twitter, & if anything pops up on here, I will pass it on.

Obv, I'll be marking the Producer's card & prompting some interesting questions from my extensive NFL knowledge.  

Would definitely be interested in Mr Carlson's views on my prediction that the Denver Broncos do not make the playoffs this year.

Would think you'd also want to discuss the Los Angeles Rams, given Sky Sports is broadcasting the Hard Knocks series on Fridays, which focuses on them this year. Nice and "on message", that.

Reckon he might offer to take the other side of that huge coin flip prediction.

THEY may want to discuss - I'm not doing tonight, that pleasure falls to Stu Rutter. I am doing next Tuesday. Knowing my luck it will be a SCD special.

Oh dear...

"Bad scene. Bridgewater down in pocket grabbing left knee. Players freaked out, swearing and praying. Immobilized. Practice halted #Vikings"

Sounds like a bad one, ambulance and trauma team called immediately. Defense and lumps of Adrian Peterson then again

Please don't mention an SCD Special if it isn't going to happen. I couldn't take the news it's a joke.

Claudia Winkleman on the sofa that week would be fun:

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/09/09/11/2C16440D00000578-3227391-Strike_a_pose_Claudia_also_shared_a_snap_with_model_Daisy_Lowe_w-a-3_1441793266654.jpg)

(Seen here with 2016 contestant, Daisy Lowe)

Shaun Hill still the number 2?

He was ok filling in for Sam Bradford in St Louis, IIRC. Not like they need a superstar replacement. Clearly going to be missed, though.

yesterday

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrIABcWVIAASNlZ.jpg)

Presume you guys have seen this?

https://www.spreadex.com/sports/nfl-super-challenge/?utm_campaign=Social+Media+++-+Twitter&utm_content=NFL&utm_source=Social+Media++&utm_medium=Twitter

14k to the winner last season looks well worth a go for some of the minds on the nfl on here?

Dislocated knee and torn ACL.

tibiofemoral dislocation, ruptured ACL for Bridgewater. "Trainers may have saved his leg and career by quick action."

Vikings trading for Sam Bradford

they have to trade for someone as the cowboys have waiver priority for any QB scraps in the cut to 53

christ, they were desperate

"Source confirms: the Vikings have traded for Sam Bradford. They gave up a 1st-round pick in 2017 and an additional pick in 2018."

A little worse than Bridgewater. A little better than Hill.

That leaves Chase to start for the Eagles then...

Says more about the Eagles than the Vikings.

wentz is ready

lol he most certainly is not!

Jeez apparently they'll be starting Wentz if he's recovered for the first game

its not like the division has any talent in it we will be ok :-)

Very troubling reading

http://projects.buffalonews.com/long-reads/bjorn-nittmo/index.html

That's a painful (& long) read Keith.

Do NFL players not have a support network, such as the PFA in football?

A friend of mine who played number 8 at school got badly knocked out during the first half of a game, but ended up completing the game. After the game, he kept asking why we weren't playing a second half. To the point where I thought he was putting it on and it became quite annoying. He ended up having to stop playing rugby due to headaches and always seemed a bit slower of thought thereafter.

He ended up rowing in the coded 8 for Britain in the World Championships though so might have been a odd type of blessing.

Concussions are very troubling though. You only have to look at Junior Seau's case to understand the tragic consequences. Good to see that they're attempting to increase the diligence paid to head injuries but you still feel that coaches will put pressure to get stars back out on the field at all costs as their jobs depend on results.

With the season upcoming would be good to here people's expectations for their teams..
Bengals 11-5 afc n champs
Think zampese is way ahead of hue Jackson in the play calling department and will get the max out of hill and bernard.Im very bullish again this season but expecting plenty of low scoring wars of attrition..

I've got us at 10-6. I think we may lose the first game v the Jets without Eifert there. Uzomah has hardly impressed in the reps he's had at tight end during pre season. I'm glad we've rostered Ericsson he's looked a play maker and will be on special teams I assume. Probably on returns instead of Tate. Boyd has looked good. LaFell doesn't seem to have done much so far. The only proper pre season action was first half of the Jags game and we were 21-3 up. So thats definitely a good thing

Think we beat the jets 10+ in the opener tiring out Wilkerson and co with plenty of screens and dump offs.Hill running behind a fullback will make a nice change from jacksons 1 back sets.

I hope so! Hill loois like he could be back to his first year again. Looks like he's just going for gaps instead of hesitating. Fingers crossed anyway. I've had a little each way at 28/1 on him being top td scorer!

Read your blog really like that bet.If Hill plays 16 games with Hewitt wiping out linebackers can see him getting 10+ td's easily.

Cavey have you seen that we've put a 3rd qb on the roster and waived dawson.With 11 draft picks already next year I reckon we're shopping mccarron around for a first..

Whose the third? Wenning? I'd be surprised if we trade Mccarron as we generally do well in drafts anyway so don't really need the extra picks. But I wouldn't be surprised if he'd started getting itchy feet as he's better than quite a few of the starters in the league

Wenning cut picked up a qb from the 49ers.See Bud Dupree put on ir for the steelers😄

The price we got for Bradford is incredible, given that he was, at best, our QB for this season only.  1st and a conditional 4th (becomes a 3rd if MIN make the Superbowl, and a 2nd if they win it this season).

This season had all the makings of being a transition, so although we lose out short-term on Bradford not being there it's a great deal for us.

I just hope they don't rush Wentz to start if he's not fully fit.  I can live with Chase Daniel at QB for now and getting Wentz healthy to begin his NFL education.

And we can now look forward to having a 1st round pick when the draft takes place in Philadelphia next year too.

Tighty - you doing a Pick Em league on NFL this year?
If you are drop me the code please.

I never like players getting injured, but I can smile at a Steeler at least, poor them. If we didn't let the Vikings have McCarron for a first and a future 4th like for Bradford then I would assume we're keeping him... (I'd assume they'd of offered something similar if they'd been interested, and again i'd of thought he would of been a player they'd of looked at)

Wentz starting v the Browns.

Updated chart of when 1st-round qbs got their first start. Wentz becomes the 14th (of 24) to start opener since '08.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Crm4JGfW8AEnTh-.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Crm6oeMUEAAp3m7.jpg)

Haha, seriously though I'm delighted he's gone there as I've bet the house on the Vikings winning the division.

Sky Poker & Sky Bet had NFL Bloke Mike Carlson & Betting Bloke Neil Channing in the studio last week, & they gave their views on a few NFL matters.

Each vid is short & sharp, around 50 seconds, so an easy watch. Quite a miracle of TV Producing to keep Mr C to less than a minute, let me tell you.  

They have spammy headers, but they are free.

Vids follow.....

Mike Carlson on Denver Broncos repeating.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FusrGy_erI8

Mike Carlson on Superbowl winner.....

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTk10Ls0MDM

Mike Carlson on Miami Dolphins challenging.....

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6O178oe6C8

Mr Channing on Superbowl 51.....

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrnQ689lsQo

Mr Channing on NFL North.....

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAKx6CXU8QU

Mr Channing on NFC East.....

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIP8OCNJPLo

When were these recorded? I'm guessing before Bridgewater got injured?

Eddie Lacy is only 26 fwiw.

Tuesday of last week, as per my intro.

Thanks for putting those up Tikay.Lot of love for the Giants everywhere but can't see it myself.

If anyone wants to play the pigskin pick-ems (make a pick on the spread in every game over the course of the reg season), I started a thread here: http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67155.msg2156661#new

Id imagine i'll be in, do we need to sort it before tonight? Maybe i should actually read the thread.

Yeah ill sign up in  bit, can i pay tomorrow? Payday.

https://nfltipsblog.wordpress.com/2016/09/08/its-finally-here-opening-game-denver-broncos-host-carolina-panthers/

My scribble for tonights match...

Picks if you dont read the link,
Siemian passing yards – u220.5 – 5/7  (Bet365) (If you want you can cover o180.5 on Skybet at 10/11)
CJ Anderson rushing yards – o53.5 – 5/6 (Paddypower)
Devin Funchess recieving yards – o37.5 – 5/6 (PaddyPower)
Both players TDs – Anderson and Olsen – 7/2 (Skybet)

Have also personally gone with D/ST td scored at 7/4 was a good one for both teams last season

The vikings quarterback got injured after he tipped them, so you can ignore that one.

 Inside Sheldon Adelson’s plan to build an NFL stadium in Las Vegas for the Raiders

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-inside-sheldon-adelsons-plan-to-build-an-nfl-stadium-in-las-vegas-151026939.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

(https://o.twimg.com/2/proxy.jpg?t=HBjIAWh0dHA6Ly9sMS55aW1nLmNvbS91dS9hcGkvcmVzLzEuMi9QVU5BSlZyODBLbTJuNVkyODBqcTNRLS0vYUQwek5qYzdkejAyTnpBN2MyMDlNVHRoY0hCcFpEMTVkR0ZqYUhsdmJnLS0vaHR0cDovL21lZGlhLnplbmZzLmNvbS9lbi9ob21lcnVuL2ZlZWRfbWFuYWdlcl9hdXRvX3B1Ymxpc2hfNDk0L2I5MTBlOWZlZTQ4ZDM3YTdlOWVmNmNjOTc1ZDM2NjA2FLwKFLwFHBSEBhSUAwAAFgASAA&s=DHKImZMMII-AqVMPvjJqw_S77JvhRoRvE0mqlC3HJU8)

Oh, I have.

Ignored them all, especially when he shouts what a price about the Cardinals being 9/1 for the Super Bowl. Don't know how he kept a straight face trying to big up the worst industry price to the mugs watching.

Neil just is one of the most knowledgeable people in gambling*.  If people just only ever listened to him when he talks about betting hey should be winning gamblers. 

Obviously when on a Sky betting show, he is going to have to stick to Sky prices, but anyone with a modicum of betting sense could look for the best price on his tips.

So many charlatans out there putting up bet365 accas to make commission, and you go after one of the good guys.  I can't think of anybody I have learned more from.

Yeah they always refer only to sky prices on the sky show. That's been true for the betting preview shows they've done for years (but which are sadly missing from the new format). Fairly obvious what is implied.

Also, the Cardinals ARE going to win the super bowl, so it's fine ;)

I've gone Cards highest pt scorers at 9/1. The NFC is so competitive at the top. 3 other teams to realistically work through to get to the Superbowl (Panthers, Seahawks and probably the Packers) I think it'll probably be Seahawks or Cards

Do anywhere offer a total sacks market? I'll be honest I usually check three bookies and can't see it on any of them

I've not gone after anybody. Merely stated what I watched and what he said. He puts himself out there he's going to create opinions and posts and i'm sure he knows this and has had much worse than me effectively quoting what he says and wondering how he can keep a straight face whilst saying it.

I guess you are a fan/friend of his as any other rando getting the same said about them you wouldn't even bat an eyelid i'm sure.

I'll put in a disclaimer first, Neil is a mate and we go back nearly 40 years now. So take this post with a pinch of salt if you wish.

Neil is sponsored by Skybet and it is a Skybet programme.

Obviously on an NFL betting preview show, he's going to have to give an outright selection.

What do you want him to do? Lie about who he fancies and pick a team who are best priced with Skybet (if there is one)? Or put up theteam he has backed at a slightly lower price offered by his sponsor?

It's a no win situation for Neil, and it is very possible he thinks Arizona are value at 9/1 even if they are available at a bigger price elsewhere.

I suppose he could have something like "I prefer to wait a few weeks before playing outright usually".

But I'm guessing S*ybet pressed him to make a pick.

Those were the 3 tips written by tighty on the betting emporium preview.  So I guess they were all discussed between the two.  So I think it is pretty clear he likely thought they were, at least, reasonable bets at best prices.  Even if people didn't like the prices on Sky, it was pretty easy to see what Neil wanted to say, but couldn't. 

And just for Matty, of course I am not going to defend a random in the same way, because pretty much zero percent of randoms are as wise as Neil when it comes to betting.  He just gets it.  I simply didn't think it showed great insight to come on here saying that you didn't back any of these tips, and then proceed to attack him.  In my OP I was just letting people know that you could now take the Vikings rec with a pinch of salt as circumstances had changed since the preview was aired.

Eddie Lacy an older guy? Hes barely out of college, what on earth!!!

And Randall Cobb is also 26. And Rodgers and Nelson at 32 and 31 respectively are in their absolute prime. Not too many old stagers in their defence either nowadays, TJ Lang 28, Clay Matthews 30, Haha Clinton Dix 23, Micah Hyde 25, don't get this reasoning at all.

You must be in the clique to get away with feeling no backlash for daring to disagree with something Neil Channing says.

As for attacking Channing, take your fanboy glasses off. Yeah he's paid and sponsored to do a job that's all fine but he's not obligated to shout WHAT A PRICE at the end of it - yet chose to. Purely there making selections on everything they throw infront of him to try and drum up trade for Skybet and nothing else, which is why these selections just simply cannot be followed. And that is why I said i've not followed anything & expressed my dislike for his comment - lolattack.

Dara Kennedy again lead presenter with Sky.

Really?

FML!

I think Kevin Cadle pissed off SKY when promoting his book on the programme last year.

I have no idea why they don't use Mike Carlsen, easily the best analyst on British TV.

Apparently she reported that the jags went 1-4 in pre season

Yessssss Bengals! Tough win that. Had us down as a loss so very happy!

improvement on last years QBs

Drew Brees 423 passing yards, 4 TDs and a loss.

It shouldn't be funny or predictable.

What a call by Del Rio to go for 2, though. Wow.

some cracking plays in that game

i think i need to invest in another 3 or 4 screens for next week 3 isnt enough

Not sure if the Giants Offense is incredible or the Cowboys Defense is woeful.

Probably a bit of both.

Dallas D really stepped up in 2H

Watched the game in a Bengals bar in madeira beach fl,30 or so very relieved bengals at the end..

Dallas lost, but how impressive was Prescott?

Obv helped by their incred O line, but I think I saw one bad throw all game.

Most impressive debut from a rookie QB I've ever seen I think.

How good must the 6 QBs picked in front of him be?

did you see wentz? 278 passing yards 2 passing TD no turnovers

could of been over 300 if eagles wasnt so far ahead

couple of impressive QB week 1 debuts this season

Can't stand Dara.. She's so wooden... Agree Carlson is the absolute best but his not a lead man his the guy the presenter brings in for his class analysis

They should get Tuchman or Nat in to host, and Carlsen as his wingman.

I'm still feeling my way with this NFL stuff, but this must surely have raised an eyebrow or two?

Rams 0 49ers 28

That was quite the upset, was it not?

Doers this alter any season projections, or was it just a freak result?

I had the niners to win. And my overall season predictions I had the Rams at 3 wins. I put it down to the fact that they were the last division I got to and I'd been too generous throughout the others and quite harsh on the Rams. However. They're a one man team and from what I've been told the 49ers just stuffed the box and blocked the run. Knowing that they have practically zero passing game. Most teams will do that I'd imagine.

Definitely a shock that San Fran managed to do something, I doubt anyone thought it'd be that score! And that the Rams D, which is a strength for them, couldn't stop them. I would be surprised if they make 7-9 this year.

(saved my weekend however as tipped the overs in the Steelers and unders in that and the double. That and Eli Rogers got my blog back to near even for the weekend after an awful Sunday for me)

How risky was Oakland's 2 Point conversion call?

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/10428/how-risky-was-oakland-s-two-point-conversion-attempt

I always thought the only times you should go for 2 in this spot were if you were a huge underdog to win the game or you have a particularly shitty (or injured) kicker.

This spot where both offenses were moving the ball at will against terrible defenses seems like an excellent third reason.

Aren't they (The Rams) the team that Stan Kroenke owns and somewhat controversially moved?

Carr had hurt himself on the drive, so it wasn't clear whether he'd have been able to play on in OT too.

I think that was a big factor.

In tft. There was talk about home advantage. Or not 

Theory goes that if you're at home you'd play for the draw and overtime. Away from home. More likely to go for the win. Still only the 5th time in history I think that a team has gone for the win and got it

Pinnacle article

Home-field advantage is a known phenomenon amongst those with knowledge of NFL betting. http://bit.ly/2bFUeU9

This is pretty good.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000702018/article/kevin-harlan-is-the-greatest-broadcaster-of-alltime

Very good..

Any thoughts for tonight? I'm completely uninspired on it. Got Jets+2.5 earlier in the week. Which is now Jets-1 I'll be taking that still. Other than that. Really not a match I can pick much from.

Jeff Fisher has 6 winning seasons in 21 as a head coach

he has no winning seasons since 2008

the Rams are about tto give him a three year extension

anyone want to help me understand?

Music City Miracle though!

He's run badly for 21 years?

He won't be going 7-9 this year at least?

He might be helped by the fact the OC spent four quarters against the worst team in the NFL calling this sequence of four downs:

1st: Gurley rush into 8 fat blokes. 1 yard.
2nd: Gurley rush into 8 fat blokes. 2 yards.
3rd: Play action, 2 yard pass behind the line of scrimmage to Tavon Austin for not enough.
4th: Punt.

That said, if they waited one more year, a defensively minded, run first Head Coach with unlimited rentaquotism would be available...

Tourism committee recommends $750M in public money for Raiders stadium

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsanYP6VYAAvz3x.jpg)

What a shit end to his game.

''Marquise Goodwin - WR - Bills
Bills WR Marquise Goodwin is in the league's concussion protocol.
Goodwin banged his head on the turd on the last play of the game''

Bills fire Greg Roman.

Because it's definitely the offensive coordinator's fault we have half a roster.



Will Brinson of North State Journal:
‏@WillBrinson

Fire all the people you want, Rex. Winter is still coming.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsfgmDLWcAAq081.jpg)

10:33 am - 16 Sep 2016



Running back coach Anthony Lynn has been promoted.

ESPN:
Under Roman (since start of 2015), Bills’ off ranked higher in yards per play (8th in NFL) than Bills’ def (25th)

Football Outsiders:
2015 DVOA (efficiency rating): Offense 9th. Defense 24th.

And this is with half a running back, a free agent QB, no right side OL and one wide receiver.

My head hurts.

This could turn into a Tighty rant. I'm going to go for a lie down.

Local news view:

http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-with-roman-fired-rex-is-betting-on-rex-even-more

^ as a fan of a very frustrating franchise myself (owner who is a terrible GM, unimaginative coaching, iffy drafting) the Bills situation is equally as odd

Ryan's signature defence gives up 37 points and 500 yards to Fitzmagic. In the game Darby and Glmore are being torched (surprisingly) left single high deep against decker, marshall and enunwa and there is no sign of any change of approach through the game

they drafted injured players (known injured) in the first two rounds, gave a new contract to a player everyone knew was at risk of suspension too and hey presto he gets suspended

and the offense is the problem? don't think so, lacks a bit of talent but then they haven't invested in the offense much its a conservative defense led tea. or is meant to be.

the head coach and his brother are the issue.    

We will be 0-4 before we start to get players back from suspension and then need to win in LA, at home against the Niners and a divisional game in Miami to be back on track.

In theory...

Watkins is playing with a foot injury. He could be stuck playing with it all season, by the sound of it, as Woods, Salas and Goodwin probably won't scare too many defenses.

Look again at that list of fixtures. Don't win those three games and we are in with the Browns and Niners for the first overall pick.

Comes back to the point that we'll get a decent draft pick next year, but the draft is full of defensive players when ours will be back recovered from their 2016 injuries. Maybe we pick up a WR but there won't be many there (Mike Williams?) and the team will be better.

Owners had to decide whether the back Rex or sack him. Clearly that has implications when he's got other staff here...

Rex and Roman rumoured not to be the best of friends, although that could just be beat writer talk.

It's a mess.

Last one. Probably.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/10525/firing-greg-roman-does-little-to-solve-the-bills-problems

Dare anyone whisper the words "quarterback controversy"?

(http://2kolf.com/News/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/new-england-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-836x470.jpg)

(http://flashwarner.com/images/tuckownsbrady.jpg)

Cracking bokking skills Keith. Immediately injured!

That's why I said whisper it :-)

At the very least the Pats will surely be Jimmy's team by 2017.

They won't want him walking lkike Osweiler did for the Broncos.

Bengals comeback destroyed by a bloody awful call from the officials. Not sure how it wasn't overturned on the review. Would of been them on the Pitt 30 odd with just under 2 mins left. But oh well. The league loves Pittsburgh.

Been hitting the post in my bets recently. Frustrating.

Gotta feel sorry for the Chargers. Woodhead out now with a serous looking knee injury

Very frustrating game and poor officiating.If we can beat Denver wk3 that will be a great start with Burfict coming back and hopefully Eifert.

The utter lack of a running game is worrying. Although been up against two top defences. Got to be said. Shazier is a brilliant player for them. Would of set up a great end of the game if they'd overturned that decision though. Hell of a start to the season. Gets a bit better after next week

Looking ready so far tonight.

Very impressive.

as i said last week wentz is looking the real deal best QB i have seen at the eagles in my short time watching the NFL

lots of options in the passing and running game ok we might struggle when we play against a better team but we have the building blocks for the future

Watched the game in Florida with loads of neutrals and everyone agreed that if Wentz protects himself better he could be the real deal.Cutler looked awful felt sorry for the Bears defense who played hard..

First take should be good tomorrow then ;D

SAS loves him some Cutler :D

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnhzMjHo3mo

Enjoyed watching that 'Cutlers got the loser limp'

Hilarious watching him going into one about Cutler, and it's not like he's ever short of ammo.

How long has it been since the Patriots have been underdogs at home?

2003

had to turn off half way through... why do americans feel the need to shout whilst making a point ?

2 seasons ago bengals 1-2 point favourites at foxboro.Bellichick answered every question all week 'on to Cincinnati' Patriots put up 40 odd points and went to the Super Bowl beating Seattle..

NFL Throws through the first two weeks

strangely hypnotic

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs5lWXvWgAA4Dpp.jpg)

Austin Seferian J – Verified account ‏@Aesj88

Thank you TB! Next chapter
10:59 am - 23 Sep 2016 from Tampa, FL

released after an arrest for drink driving

Paging Rex...

Or Jerry ;D

Jacoby Brissett needs thumb surgery.

Anyone else think they should have let Tom Brady serve his suspension last season?

Few guys I was interested to see the price on for tomorrows matches. Not necessarily for bets. But just to see how the bookies have gone. Kenyan Drake at Miami...  To score anytime TD. Skybet - 13/8. Bet365 - 8/1

And the guy who's in at tight end for Denver. Heuerman Skybet has him at 10/1 while PP is only at 3/1 on him

Both have a chance of scoring. I'd say that Drake is more likely. Foster is out at RB. They obviously don't like Ajayi and Drake was mixed in last week. Probably between him and Pead

I'm sure they do actually like Ajayi. I know they didn't draft him, but the coaches didn't take long to forget he had a strop at the airport before Week 1 when giving him the bulk of the carries last week. He's great in open spaces and I expect him to get the rock tomorrow. Drake might get goal line work but I'm not expecting a 1A/1B RBBC approach, even if a few guys get carries.

Fair enough. I hope Jay plays. I liked the look of him when he was given some play last year. So do hope he gets the bulk of the carries. Seems that Gase isn't sure who's his choice yet.

And against a woeful damaged Browns they should get ahead and then in theory run the ball more which could mix in any of the 3 or 4 they've got. We'll see tomorrow I guess.

At the price I'll be having a little on Drake any time. Especially with such a big discrepancy between companies

Rap Sheet says Drake starts. Hope you got on.

The real match up today is Patrick Peterson v Robert Woods. Tough to pick a winner there...

Just gone past Tom Brady's record of 81 passes without an INT to start an NFL career.

Eagles 2-0 and beating the Steelers 10-0

Just imagine how good Wentz will be when he's ready!

Really thought he'd be found out today. But he's look impeccable. Will be interesting to see if he can keep up with Ben. If they manage to get it going

whats the record for plays without a turnover ?
he must of been close before i just jinxed him

Well over 200 IIRC

Pass attempts without an INT is 335

http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-consecutive-pass-attempts-without-an-interception-by-an-nfl-quaterback/

not expecting that i was meaning how many plays without turning the ball over to start a career, so far no fumble or INT

touch wood

Weird night last night. I've caught tighty in the prediction league though.

Cards and Steelers shafted most of my bets. The Browns did what the Browns do and somehow managed to lose when winning was easier. Not sure what happened with Drake in the Miami run game.
The Titans managed to throw away at least overtime with their center smashing into some guys as the play was blown dead. Ridiculous choice by him and one other guy.
 Bengals bummed by the Broncos but dropped 3 ints and a few easy catches. Been unable to run it all season then somehow managed against the best defence in the league. Very frustrating but they've got a much easier slate coming now starting on Thursday with the Dolphins. Hill scored a couple for my top td scorer bet anyway
The Ravens and Jags shared the worst 2 mins of football you'll ever see with 3 ints in 4 attempts (or so it seemed on redzone anyway)
Wilson has an mcl sprain for the Seahawks. Not sure if that affects his participation next week or not.

As my comment seems to be thrown back at me each weekend

Wentz played one pre-season game, the intention was to sit him for a year and let him mature as the Eagles felt he was not ready

then Bridgewater got injured and the Eagles, who had given up multiple picks in a very ballsy move to get Wentz in the draft, were offered a first round pick for Bradford. This was a no-brainer to accept, get the first round pick lost to get Wentz back and this committed themselves (they thought) to starting Wentz and taking the growing pains

As it happens that trade, although early days, looks like a win win as Bradford can do enough for the Vkes alongside that fantastic defense to ensure they are competitive

Wentz has looked brilliant and for any NFL franchise its better to be lucky than clever. If Bridgewater hadn't got injured....

As it is the Eagles were ballsy in April and are reaping the rewards now, though at 3-0 as much credit needs to be given to Schwartz's defense which is playing light years ahead of last year

Generally, with Wentz, Dak, Brissett etc its good to see some young QB talent coming through and beginning to replace some NFL re-treads

this was interesting

Through 3 games:

Carson Wentz: 66/102 (64.7%) 769 yds, 5 TDs (5 pass), 0 INTs
Dak Prescott: 66/99 (66.7%) 767 yds, 3 TDs (1 pass), 0 INTs

Dak's under contract for 4 years at a 4th rounder rookie salary too. Not the player Wentz is (wouldn't appear to have that cannon of am arm) but encouraging nonetheless.

Only teasing you tighty.

I won't mention it again.







Until next week at the earliest :)

Painful watching the saints defense tonight..

Pretty much agree with what Tighty says here, although I think it was always unlikely that Bradford would have seen out the season as the starting QB.  Given his earlier attempt to get traded, he was pretty unpopular with the supporters so you could see a scenario where a couple of poor games would lead to them pushing for Wentz to start, making things pretty uncomfortable for everyone concerned.

As it happened, we hit the jackpot with the trade and (so far) have had the bonus of seeing Wentz play very well in a season that we'd pretty much written off as a development year for him.  It may well still turn out that way, so I'm keeping expectations low for now.  However, I doubt very much that we'd be 3-0 if Bradford had been the starting QB.

As Tighty mentioned, the signing of Jim Schwartz has been huge for us.  He's aggressive in his philosophy so may finally be the replacement for the late Jim Johnson that we've failed to find to date.

I have to admit that I like the look of Prescott too for the Cowboys, albeit he's had less of a weight of expectation behind him.  It'll be intriguing to see how both perform over the next few games as it's hard to judge them on only 3 games.  Sterner tests will come as opposing coaches accumulate more footage on them and start to plan around their specific weaknesses.

As a saints fan.. yup.. they are hideous.. consoled myself with the overs total.. saints over 27.5.. and brees over 324.5... as they say scoopio !

"Denver is playing like a world champion in large part because quarterback Trevor Siemian is playing like Peyton Manning.

Just compare Siemian's first three games this season to Manning's first three games last season.

Through three games in 2016, Siemian has thrown for five touchdowns, three interceptions and 756 yards.

Through three games last season, Manning threw for five touchdowns, three interceptions and 755 yards."

Quality stat from ESPN.

Siemian has been good, but Wentz and Prescott have been unbelievable

CW 66-102-5-0 103.8
DP 66-99-1-0 93.3

Unprecedented for two rookies to start like this surely.

Thank God Eifert is back next week. Bengals unable to convert in the red zone. They completely dominated this match and had to settle for 5 Fgs after the first quarter Green Td. Green was at 123 yards and a touch in the first half.

Still virtually unable to run the ball as well which is a worry. Hill 71 yards. At just under 3 a carry but no penetration really, had 2 attempts from 5 yards for the td bet and got nowhere, in fairness they rushed the second one because I think Dalton was worried about a potential fumble being reviewed. He's looking better than last year as a runner, nowhere near as much stuttering but they're just not making any gaps for him

5 sacks on Tannenhill. Bengals only had to rush 4 all night and got through that beaten up Dolphins o line.

All in all. Easy win for the Bengals but could of been by 40 if they could convert. Cowboys then Pats up next. I forgot how shit their schedule is this year.

betting a nice perfect storm spot for a flyer today :


Melvin gordon san diego 2 or more td's doubled with denver sanders and/or andersons 2 or more td...

my beloved saints cannot defend especially the run... and tampa just love to give up points too...both teams bottom of the points conceded column... saints game could develop into the wild west show...and denvers ferocious deense should give their offense the ball plenty of times.... all 3 guys in good form and will look to feast on these defenses

example gordon/sanders double is a tempting 48-1 :)

Gordon seems like a gimme. But at 7/2 it's pretty short for what it is. Should come in against the Saints. But very short for what is needed.

I'd be taking CJ personally of the 3 Denver threats. And Sanders over Thomas is you wanted one of the Wrs

Sigh crossbar..as expected Gordon hit.. sanders and anderson 1 a piece and anderson 3 yards out got stuffed for the scoopio.. game stopped with 7 mins left for severe weather.. and when they came back out just jogged through the last bit

Matt Ryan: 503 pass yds Julio Jones: 300 receiving yds 1st game in NFL history with a 500-yd passer AND 300-yd receiver

against Carolina too!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtzdhLjWIAQE6Gf.jpg)

Is 2016 the best QB class in recent memory?

(Tongue in cheek but not as daft a question as it was a month ago)

let you know in 3 years, though early signs obviously great.

i actually like winston and mariota a lot as a pair from last year but being let down by baffling coaching and roster/personanel decisions by their teams, so far

Thursday game ... David Johnson over 88.5 yards rushing.. Second year superstar should have a massive game against the defence with the worst rush defence in the league allowing average running backs 100 yard games and Dallas star rookie last week ran for 138 yards.. Add to that San Francisco lost their star linebacker Bowman for the season and Arizona QB PAlmer is out and the reserve QB Arizona don't trust much so a heavy dose of run game is expected

NFL ratings so far this season are down between 11 and 17% depending on TNF, SNF, MNF, regular Sunday football

reasons given are

- no one knows what is/isn't a catch
- taunting flags are being overdone
- no celebrations allowed, its less fun to watch

agree with any of those?

are you watching any less, if so why?

FYP.

i keep falling asleep during the late night games which is odd as i only get 2-3 hours sleep a day at the moment and it seems to be coming at a time i should be awake enjoying the games

oh and if you can get over 49.5 total points for the raiders game grab it..line can only go north

Definitely the taunting and celebrations. I'd watch regardless, but both annoy me. The catch rules don't bother me as much as they seem to bother other people.

I think the biggest thing is that the selection of primetime games has been pretty average. Dolphins @ Bengals on TNF? And the damn Bears couldn't be more irrelevant right now if they tried. Schedule makers, c'mon man. Offenses don't get any more fun to watch tonight with Carson Palmer out, unless you're Blaine Gabbert's mum.

NFL probably ran bad too tbf. Texans @ Patriots and Chiefs @ Steelers should've, on paper, been much tighter games than they actually turned out to be. But some really poor picks in there too.

Easy winner there. I stayed away from it as he makes a lot of catches from the backfield. Landed 3/4 of the tips on my page oast night. Think I'm finally hitting my stride on it after a rough few weeks. Was hardly rocket science last night though. Johnson anytime. 2+ and 3+  Johnson and Hyde tds and Cardinals -3.  All pretty obvious bets but made some decent money on it. Had a little personal bet on Cards by 11-15 at 8/1 as well.

Looks like the first half was awful. I woke up randomly at 220 and it was 0-0 with 7:40 left in the second quarter. I would guess they just wore them down in the end. Glad Drew Staunton played. Gave me chance to watch the greatest gift in sports again and again  http://m.imgur.com/gallery/JxLbXrc

Lol..

Yup most of the first half was an offensive nightmare but strangely was good to watch... DJ was nailed on for big rushing numbers v that D even with him slipping out into the flat for the easy catch :)

Random, I know, but, I just spent a little time seeing who has scored in which quarter over the season so far... (Living the dream on a Friday night) But I like the score every quarter markets, at usually fairly good odds...

The Bengals and Falcons have only missed 1 qtr so far, the Bengals have played Jets, Steelers and Broncos (their one miss) all 3 of which are pretty tough defences, they travel to Dallas this weekend, so looks good.
The Falcons haven't had it as tough, their 1 miss came against the Raiders. They play the Broncos this week, so expect that to slump.

The Steelers and Saints, unsurprisingly have scored every quarter at home so far, admittedly only 2 games, but it's known the Brees always scores in NO, and Big Ben has some fairly obviously home/road splits, so makes sense.

Ravens have only missed a couple of quarters, while the Cardinals have yet to score in every quarter of a match.

I think I really need to get it organised by who concedes every quarter at home as well, that should give me some instruction on good matchups for these types of bets, should I want.

Which bookie does this? Not seen that market before.

Definitely good to know this stuff, but you're backing a 4 timer acca, so the odds are presumably going to be heavily in the house's favour.

Would you try to back against teams that are shallow in defence (like San Francisco last night), where the team is tiring or the weaker back ups are on the field and taking a pounding?

Too many games on TV and too many of the too many are bad games.

It's a market on bet365, not sure anywhere else offers it, although you can get it on request a bet on Skybet as well, as you say with it being essentially a 4fold acca, it's probably not a long term solution for making solid money, the faves are usually around 9/4, 11/4 that kind of area.

Arizona last night was one that if it was on a Sunday I would of probably looked at, with Bowman out, and after what Zeke did to them once he was out, I probably would of gone for Arizona scoring every qtr against them, luckily it was a Thursday night game and I went for individual players instead! (I know that doesn't really make sense but generally if there's only 1 match on i'll focus on an individual target, last night was David Johnson which was basically printing money.

Browns and Indy have conceded all but 1 quarter so far, Browns face NE this week (Pats are 6/4), who without Brady are yet to score every qtr, and the Colts face the Bears who haven't scored in every qtr of a single match yet. (Bears are 7/2) As mentioned Steelers have done every qtr at home, they're 7/4 this week.

I'll keep an eye of them for this week and see if anything pops up anyway, and if there is any correlation of whether it's just a case of knowing the game, I mean gamescript affects these kinds of things as well, Mike McCarthy for example at Green Bay will happily sat back if his team takes a decent lead and let the other team score a few (almost cost them the game v Detroit) so it'll need a bit of knowledge of situations as well as the bare stats

6/4 would mean backing the Pats at 4/11 to score in any given quarter. Some quarters are more likely than others (Pats are likely to defer if they win the toss, so maybe they will be slightly more likely to score in the second and third quarters than in the first and fourth?)

I would have thought the best way to do your acca is to pick specific quarters you fancy the bookies have priced up wrongly in games and acca those. Seems like you have the data for that to take advantage if there's a duff price. Higher variance probably but more chance of a profit.

Not sure there's anywhere that will let you bet specific quarters. Can pick the highest scoring quarter I believe. But not score in or not score in (that I know of)

Few bigger priced anytime scorers I found this morning. Gillislee for the Bills at 6/1. Shady looks like he'll be out with a hand. So it'll be between him and Reggie Bush. Iron Mike is the better of those two. (Seems McCoy isn't bad and will likely play so scratch that)

Kenneth Dixon was available at 8s this morning for the Ravens. He's gonna debut this weekend and while West will be the no. 1 he should get in on the action. Was as low as 9/5 at other places. Playing an awful run defence.

Last up was Austin Hooper for the Falcons. A ailable at 10s, they're playing Denver who are the best (or second best) D in the opaque. But they historically can be beaten by tight ends.

Bush is done. I can see him being cut soon. The Bills will re-sign Karlos Williams in the next couple of weeks, although it's not clear yet whether it'll be to the practice squad. If it's to the main roster, it could be at the expense of Bush. They need a vertical runner desperately.

What's absolutely clear is that the Bills know the gap between Shady and the rest of the backfield is too wide.

It's quite possible our best 5 offensive linemen start this Sunday. We will need them.

There's been a bit of talk about the Rams being weak at corner. I think the problem for them is they have dominated against the run, kept games tight (week one aside) and forced teams to throw, which inevitably means the corners give a few up. Football Outsiders has them as performing 8th best against deep passes this season.

Jeff Fisher and Rex Ryan. Two coaches who flatter to deceive, who are riding high and have a winnable game ahead, so you expect them to lose. This is the hardest game to call this weekend IMO. Could be under 25 points or could be over 60. I've not the faintest clue.

As you say. A very tough match to call. Has the potential to be the worst game of the week. But could be a shootout. Woods has done ok for you filling in for Sammy hasn't he. Agree with Bush. He can offer a little but not really worth a roster spot. I'm amazed no-one has snapped up Williams. He must be in worse shape than we think. McCoy in fairness is a fair distance ahead of a lot of RBs in the league. I personally really like Gillislee so would of been happy to see McCoy ruled out!

Kenneth Dixon price has gone. Now best of 7/2 :(

Looking at tmmr NFL .. It’s a very tough week to call in the NFL and I think we have already spotted the best two bets nice and early.. but.. Atlanta goes to Denver on a massive high smashing in points all over the place.. Trouble is it’s been against teams that cannot defend.. and I mean really bad defensive teams Tampa Bay, Raiders, New Orleans and the panthers who without Josh Norman in the secondary look a shadow of the defence of last year.. Step forward Denver’s ferocious pass rush and top tier secondary.. Matt Ryan Atlanta’s QB isn’t going to get the time to chuck the ball 40 yards down the field before getting smashed in the teeth by Von mIller and his crew.. look for Atlanta to go behind early as they too cannot defend and then chase desperately with Ryan putting the ball up for Denver’s secondary to feed on.. I like Denver -4.5 here...
 
Eagles at Detroit.. Wentz rookie QB for the Eagles is playing like a well oiled machine and has an array of weapons and have won their 3 games this season by +19..+15 and + 31.. add to that the number one defence in the league against a Lions offense that has no run game and very few top targets for Stafford to throw to now Megatron has retired.. They couldn’t even beat Tennessee at home last week who are one of the lowest scoring offences in the league..
Have to love eagles -3 here..singles and doubles gents
 
If you want to add in one for the treble... Houston to score under 17... They go to Minnesota who has the most fearsome defence in the league.. No team has scored more than 14 points against them all season and their new superdome stadium is as intimidating as they come.. Houston has no run game and one top receiving option in Hopkins... Look for the Vikings shutdown secondary to be all over him with Xavier Rhodes shadowing him like he did with Odell beckham junior last week

Another one - Seth Roberts Anytime TD (or First TD for a bit more of a gamble) for OAK vs SD on Sunday.

Roberts is Derek Carr's go-to option in the Red Zone as the Slot Receiver. Normally the Raiders like to run in their TDs and up until last week. Roberts was the only man to catch a passing TD for the entire season. SD has a hell of a lot better rush DEF than their passing DEF.

Roberts is best 23/10 for the anytime TD, 10/1 first OAK TD with Ladbrokes.

He's also 25/1 first TD overall with Billy Hills.

They should get at least 4 tds tomorrow against the chargers. On the ground Lat. Murray is out. DeAndre Washington will probably be there. He's around 11/4 (annoyingly I thought I'd get higher) I'd be happy to take him. In the air, My only issue with Roberts is that they should be ahead in this matchup but have to score TDs stoll they're currently 8/9 in red zone this year. Personally I'd look at Crabtree. But as a bigger bet Roberts and Walford are definitely tempting! I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see Roberts hitting the first td

Actually think the black unicorn. Martellus Bennett is practically guaranteed at whatever price you can get him tomorrow. Gronk is nowhere near healthy. If they play 2 tight end sets with Brady in his first game back. He'll ignore the coverage on Gronk and aim for Bennett. I've got him at 9/4 on Billys. Seems 12/5 is there on Irish or betfair

I'm not sure how they'll split carries between him and Jalen Richard, plus we're one of the few teams that still carry a fullback (Jamize Olawale) on the roster who has a rushing TD this year, he'll probs get carries near the goal line, too. Historically we'd start Marcel Reece in these kind of spots, but he got suspended then cut this offseason, so it's anybody's guess what we do with splitting the carries between the two rookies and Olawale.

Think Seth Roberts is a good shout, mind.

Taken u42.5 in the Miami game because Hurricane Matthew.

Game day can't come around quick enough...Backed jets +7.5 lions +4 bengals-2 in a treble more out of hope than expectation.

Did my write ups this morning and put a shovel full of bets on, then have that horrible 6 hours to wait until game time. Was hoping/expecting the Bengals game to be on TV tonight, a) it'll be a good game, and b) the Cowboys are usually on TV but they've gone for Falcons v Broncos. Which in fairness is a good choice, best offence v best defence, should be a good game. As much as I dislike Talib and his bunch of lovely chaps.

Well. The Bengals sucked again. Can't establish the run. Or stop anyone else's. The pats are going to smash them next week :( Zeke looks the real deal. Getting better every week.

40pts up on my blog last night. Into profit for the season finally. And that was after I removed Henry and Crabtree both to score at 5/1 as well.

Nice to see the Cowboys OL completely mash up Peko and Atkins. threw them about luike rag dolls

meanwhile

Most Pass Att Before 1st Career Int

2000-01 T. Brady 162
2016 D. Prescott 155 and counting
2016 C. Wentz 135
1984 W. Moon 131

I know you not big on backing/bragging on the Cowboys but I assume you are getting a little excited now?  Not talking SB 2016 excited but the pair (Prescott & Elliott) do look a bit special.  I know this OL can make anyone look good but this pair are beyond that?  You see a bright Cowboy future in Tightland?

Big question is do the Cowboys bring back Romo.. I say not.. opinions Tighty ? Hot Hand and all that...

Getting there

The OL and the running game should really set up the rest of the offense either when Romo comes back or Prescott develops further.

On the OL it was absolutely incredible to watch Zeke's long touchdown yesterday. Zack Martin annihilated a DT one way, Travis Frederick swallowed up the other DT the other and Zeke goes 60 yards untouched.

So far Dak has shown incredible poise, no mistakes and the game plan is nice and conservative. Hopefully a bigger play game can follow

Defenses will have to pick their poison. flood the box to stop the run leaves Dez and co one on one outside. Six or seven in the box and Zeke should have his way

Probably a draft or two of high defensive picks (pass rusher, couple of corners out of contract this off-season) from being really competitive for the post season but on the way. Then again with Wentz so are the Eagles so its fun times

I mean look at what the Vikes are doing. Over half their offense is out and that defense is so good that they can still be competitive. We are a way off that.

There's a lot of luck involved. The Cowboys would have loved Wentz, Lynch or Cook but couldn't draft any of them. "Settling" for Dak they expected to groom him behind Romo. Forced to start him, no one expected him to be as good as he has been. Part of the credit has to go to the offensive coaching staff, a much maligned group, but part of it is a happy accident of circumstances.

Nice problem to have. If (big if because its Lambeau then the Eagles) we are 5-2 going into the second half of the season then they can easily say Romo's not quite ready and ride it out

In practice though Romo should be (subject to his usual brain fades) dynamite with this running game as he offers a big play ability that they haven't asked from Dak yet.

When you watch Ryan with Atlanta this season, defenses have the same problem. Take away Julio Jones, as Denver tried to yesterday, and Freeman and Coleman kill you because without 8 or 9 stopping the run a competent OL can scheme the neceesary openings.

In theory with Romo back there not Prescott opposing defenses have real problems.

In poker terms Romo is the Laggy option, Prescott the taggy option.

Very impressed with the cowboys looked like they can go on a deep run in the playoffs..

No aggression last night just going through the motions.I love coach Lewis but he's not one too stir up the troops into a frenzy.Miss zimmer throwing a few fucks into them now and then.

was an easy spot and the line went off at 51..65 points easy win nice double with johnson yards

wow Atlanta Defence really outperformed themselves.. and denver o line along with  a nervy paxton lynch performed poorly... was seen as a bit of a shock... eagles decided to give Detroit a 14 point running start for some reason and almost got them..

vikings D just a wrecking ball

Early doors in NFL are my current favourites the Oakland Raiders Total points line.

Raiders are fantastic in offense and dire in defence which creates a sublime paradox of potential shootouts against any opponent, of the 5 games so far this season only one of them has been under 55 points.. the exception being against Baltimore who have one of the most lacklustre offences in recent times and a defense that continues to be stingy in all departments.

This trend seems set to continue and I see no reason to oppose the over points market any time soon. Sunday brings the Kansas chiefs to Oakland… offensively they are no better than average but against this Raiders D.. 24 points + looks likely.. defensively they seem to have lost a step from recent years and gave up 43 last week to a rampant Pittsburgh.

Carr ( in the form of his short career ) and a balanced Raiders run ( even without Murray ) pass attack look set to pile in another 28+ score.. Carr can hit instantly from anywhere on the field to elite deep threats like Crabtree and Cooper.

Recommend over 46.5 Total Points

 

New Orleans host Carolina in the Superdome in a potential shootout.. although Carolina’s offense even with Newton at the helm has looked patchy at best.

Defensively Carolina seem a shadow of their former selves and now with two rookie corner backs and struggling to get to the QB they have the potential to get scorched by a top NFL QB. Drew Brees is that QB, the future hall of fame lock is a secondary’s nightmare.. he can shred you anytime anywhere and has the ability to keep a play alive even when the protection breaks down and when in the superdome with that crowd.. the danger is multiplied.Even without a running game Brees can still destroy a team.If this one turns into a Wild West shootout as many expect Brees is going to be firing bombs all day long.

So the generous line for New Orleans total points of over 24 is a must. At home Saints have only failed to score less than 26 points once in the last ten home games ( and put up 38 in this fixture last year when Carolina’s defense was one of the most feared )

We spoke already regarding the Raiders game and the line for the Raiders points is 22.5…??

Kansas defense numbers so far this season are a little misleading.. they restricted the Jets and the Texans in points.. you know those two powerhouse offenses ranked 24th and dead last respectively. You would kind of expect them to show up good against those.. so what happened when they came up against teams that can score.. San Diego put 27 past them in Kansas and the Steelers buried them for 43 last time out. Raiders offense is ranked top 5 and should be able to muster more than 22.5 against the deceptively 17th ranked Kansas Defense

Recommend

Sainta over 24 points

Raiders over 22.5 Points

Singles and a double on this line

I like the team points double.

Justin Forsett is 7/1 on Skybet (12/5 on paddy) Theo Riddick is out. Washington is questionable i believe. Forsett may be their only option.

The dreaded @ Patriots week.Good luck today with your bets Sicilian and cavey,I've gone for an anytime touchdown patent of West,Jones and Bernard.Also thrown away £50 bengals 3/1 £50 bengals +13 winning margin 25/1 in hope of a bounce back game that's highly unlikely.

Ok.. my bet of the week.. was waiting for the line to see if the compilers were going to be lazy..and yes they are🙂

LeSean McCoy over 87.5 rushing yards…

The Bills are a run first offense and McCoy is in great form.. Bills have the 3rd best rush offense in the league avg 137 yards per game.. they come up against our old friends the 49’s who have the 2nd worst rush defense in the league averaging 146 yards to opposing runners and have lost their defense general linebacker Bowman for the season.

McCoy has run for 58,59,110,70 and 150 yards in each of his games.. but lets look closer.. the 58 and 59 totals game against the Ravens and Jets number 4 and 2 in rush defense..so a tough time would be expected he ran 110 v Arizona 23 rd rush defense 70 v New England 9th ranked and last week tore the Rams up for 150 who rank.. 28th in the league.

So not hard to figure out.. but the compilers have basically added up and divided by 5 and you get 89.4.. many lines are at 89.5..B365 currently 87.5.. so no account has been taken for the opposition etc..etc.. just average it up and bang a line out there..remember the 49’s last game against Johnson we had.. he ripped them for 157 yards.. McCoy in a run first offense v this rush D..should have 100 + ..

good luck.. my anytime TD acca goes murray Tennessea..brown Steeleers..hyde frisco and nelson GB

I've got a whole host of bets on my blog. Nap is Murray anytime at 10/11 on paddypower. Can't see that not landing 

I may be crazy. But I think 100/1 on Gurley and Zeke both to be o120yds rushing and a TD is over priced. GB have had a good rush defence. But it's been against crap. Zeke is one of the best in the league

You score a touchdown to go 19-28 in the fourth quarter.

Do you:

a) Take the extra point, leave yourself 8 points behind so one score away.

b) Go for 2, meaning if you get it, you still need a touchdown and if you don't, you need two scores?

If you answered (a), you're never going to get a job in Cleveland but, good news, you're clinically sane.

They needed 2 at some point. Went for it then instead of the next score? I can see their thinking. I had Browns +7 so good for me either way :/

Need Cowboys +4 for a nice little 4 fold to land

Does it make a difference?

You need to hit 2 points this time or next time.  If you miss the 2 pointer you go for, you still need an extra score.  Either way 2 scores is not enough.  Might be better to go now, if it is the time the defence least expects it?  This ignores the different psycholigical impacts on both teams of an 8 or 9 point difference. 

But you throw away the game if you don't get the conversion. That's exactly what they did, too.

Good luck with your acca.

I predicted a team from the Super Bowl wouldn't make the playoffs. Granted, not this one...

Teams will be prepared either way as the offense will be on the field for the 2.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but the certainty of being 8 behind seems far better than the possibility of being either 7 or 9 behind.

I have had a look around, and there are charts saying you should do as you say Tal, but.

Say chance of 1 point conversion = 0.95 and chance of 2 point conversion = 0.5

Chance of 1 point then 2 = .95 x .5.  Chance of 2 point then 1 = .5 x .95.

.5 x .95 = .95 x .5.

Other than the psychological effect of been 1 score away, I don't see the difference.  The psychology thing should only be a minor secondary effect, but humans are weird.

It is getting late, so not going to worry about this much more, would be good to see some proof that one is better than tge other.

 

Raiders turned the ball over on several occasions .. Kansas performed as expected with 26 points ( predicted 24 ) raiders just didn't hold up their end for the bet to come in.

Saints over 24 was like printing money.. smashed 41 past the ailing Panthers

Glad to see my homework paid off .. McCoy smashed that 49 er defense for 140 Yards and 3 TD... will be looking for runners v this D all season

im awful at TD scorers LOL

really like this photo

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu-n8iZXYAAqXni.jpg)

dolphins have done a great job on that stadium refurb too

anyone going to the first game at Twickers this weekend?

I tipped up Gillislee. LaFell and Kuhn at big odds and won on Murray too. Few lovely little earners at 11/4 and 10/3

BIlal Powell is my bigger odds for the night. Around 3/1. He's been getting equal snaps to Forte and playing better. They'll need to try and get the ground game going otherwise they'll just be letting Fitz throw it to Matthieu and his mates all night. It's big at that price

Yes. Is it a royal pain to get to? Some of us folk are heading from north of Watford and it looks like it'll take longer to get to Richmond from Euston than it takes to get to Euston from Birmingham.

Thought London was supposed to have transport links ::)

Was hoping you'd be able to help me!!! I'm coming from Notts sonny train goes to st Pancras and it looks like it's gonna be a challenge to get there to say the least!!!

such a bad game tonight

Now now, it has amazingly good transport links, plus, as a bonus, you get to enjoy the engineering marvel of the London Underground system, as well as the stunning punctuality & reliability of South West Trains.

Assume you will get the big train to Euston?

Then you want a Northern Line train southbound (that's the black line on Underground maps) direct to Waterloo. These run every 2 minutes on a Saturday. Journey time is 16 minutes.

From Waterloo, you want the Twickenham train, these run 12 times an hour this Sunday, & it takes around 30 minutes on a stopper.  

So, from Euston to Twickenham in less than an hour allowing for changes.

It's a short walk to the Stadium from Twickenham Station, or you can alight at St Margarets, which is a slightly longer but more pleasant walk.

I'm guessing you have not been to Twickers before? It's a fine, fine stadium by UK standards. The oddity, which has always bemused me, is that right opposite Twickenham Stadium - & I do mean right opposite, literally the other side of the A316 - is The Stoop, which is home to Harlequins. Land costs in London being what they are, that's just bizarre.  

The Stoop Car Park is the VIP & Media Car Park for Twickenham Stadium on match days, it's that close.

Both stadiums can be seen in this photo;

Not at all.

From St Pancras Station (which is, effectively, the same place as Kings Cross Station), you can use the Northern Line, but it involves quite a trek at St Pancras, so better to take the Victoria Line to Green Park, then Jubilee Line to Waterloo. 

Nevada governor signs bill to approve Las Vegas stadium plan

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000722987/article/nevada-governor-signs-bill-to-approve-las-vegas-stadium-plan?campaign=Twitter_atn

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu_7ypOUkAA9_VQ.jpg)

Thanks for this Tikay. I'm currently in a pot due to broken foot so minimal walking is my aim!

Yikes, you have a tidy walk at the Twickenham end of the journey.

How did you manage that?

Not thrilled about that walking then!!! How far we talking? I had thought maybe I should go to Vauxhall and get the proper train from there?

Very embarrassing - fell off a climbing wall the first time, then just when it was on the verge of being fixed, I fell over putting my shoe on to re-break it.

Classy bloke, me.

Vauxhall to Twickenham 35 minutes

up the stairs, turn right out of Twickenham station. 10 minute walk without a pot on/follow the crowds

Shuttle buses will be running from Richmond, Hounslow and Waterloo.

http://www.nfluk.com/news/internationalseries/article-1/Getting-To-Twickenham/0e21a072-a5bb-4955-ad8d-1d58a07a6f65

What was the reason given for playing this match at Twickenham?

Can't imagine it will have same atmosphere/vibe as the Wembley games.

3 games going there in the next three years. RFU outbid Wembley stadium Ltd for a package of games

Proximity to heathrow and training bases that side of London reduces travel time for the teams too, and reputedly the Giants (who i think fly in late) were quite happy it wasn't Wembley

Obviously Wembley is great, agree on the atmosphere. A full Twickenham is some sight when you are in it though, very good acoustics

Would imagine the pitch will take the punishment better than Wembley.

Yup, Victoria Line to Vauxhall works just as well, but it's a naff station, whereas Waterloo rocks.

I'm going to the game at the weekend, via Victoria. A couple of the guys going go to twickers or the Stoop regularly so should know our quickest route there

Any opinions on tomorrow nights match? I'm really uninspired by it tbh. Packers aren't playing well. Bears aren't very good. Division match. And at Lambeau so have to look towards Green Bay. But man. I'm really not feeling anything.

Can't see Knile Davis doing too much after 2 days. Guessing it'll still be Montgomery out of the backfield and a lot of passing. The green bay o line has been giving Rodgers so much time but he hasn't been finding players. Thinking it might be a decent game for Cobb providing Davis doesn't get too much workload.

Hoyer throws 300 yds per game. But struggles to get tds. Guess Jordan Howard. Cameron Meridian and Zach Miller there. Packers secondary is fairly good in general. They were top rush defence before Zeke. But in fairness they were the only decent rush team they've played so far. Jordan Howard has looked pretty good so far. So I think he'll be fine

Cavey, looks like a rotten game to bet on. Actually, looks like a rotten game full stop. Would quite like the Bears to find a win. If Jeffery is fit, the Packers have been allowing 118.8 yards per game to opposing WR1s this season, and it's not like it's all garbage time stuff.

That's all I have there. Time better spent sleeping, I'd venture.

Strength of remaining schedule. Comparing the teams in contention for the number 1 overall pick next year, it's impressive how much the 49ers have ahead of them, compared with the Browns and the Bears (who seem to be the other two).

http://nfltraderumors.co/2016-nfl-strength-schedule/

Anyone think it could be a fourth team, out of interest? The Jets seem possible, although I can't get over that they should have enough talent to win 4 games.

That was pretty much my thinking on tonights game. There's nothing there that interest me. I'll do a little write up. And probably pick something. But won't be much. Jeffrey seems fit enough. Just not targetted at all.

Regards to first pick. I think the Browns will get a win. There's at least some effort there. Hopefully not this week vs my Bengals. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Hue come in and get the W. Not sure on the injury update for Hyde after last week. But if he's gone. The niners are done. I don't think the Bears are in the same category as them or the niners, for some reason I think they're ok, I can't really explain it! The Jets have had a horrible start. And a horrible schedule. I think they'll be fine. Until last week I might of floated the Dolphins as they were garbage. But that win against the Steelers could be a turning point. Apparently they had their ideal OL out there and it obviously helped Ajayi.

Any idea where exactly in Vegas this is planned to be?

I was going to say that in Vegas they might struggle for "home fans", but thinking about it really nobody lives in Foxboro, and that still sells out every time.

The transient nature of Vegas tourists would fill it, I'd say. It'd be part & parcel of a Vegas trip for most. And regular NFL fans can use it as an excuse to pop to Vegas for the weekend. You can fly a long way for $100 on SouthWest Airlines.

one of two locations west of the strip

http://vegas-raiders.net/stadium-location

So Devontae Adams played last night then. Was sure he'd be missing with concussion.

Hoyer suffered a broken left arm which messed up an already miserable game even more (by the look of it)

Bonus being the only person in our friends and family who likes American football is that you bag all the freebies.Wangled free hospitality to jags colts and now get me and the missus free rams giants tickets as my mate 'has something better to do'

A tough week for spots.. those pesky bookies dont like giving it away do they😦

However there are still some interesting spots if we delve deep enough and spot a lazy compiler.

NY Jets v Baltimore

Matt Forte of the Jets had a great start to the season running for 96 & 100 yards against the bengals & bills who rank 20th & 15th against the run so not exactly brick walls.. since then its been ugly for Forte and his looked disinterested.. His last 4 games his gone for 65,27,53 and 19 v 24th,3rd,13th and 17th ranked run defences. The only really run stopping defence was Seattle who stuffed him up for the 27. Powell the back up has also been taking touches off him.

The jets are a mess offensively.. The QB’s are a joke and as touched upon the run game isnt much better. Sunday they come up against the equally inept offence of Baltimore.. however they do have a pretty handy defence and rank n0.1 against..you guessed it ..the run allowing an average of 69 yards.

In all honesty they have come up against some poor run teams and there numbers may look a bit better than an honest line.. but in order they have allowed 15..31..30..17..133 and 58.. the 133 v cleveland is a little skewed as one massive busted play alone went for 85 yards.. take that anomaly away and Crowell went for 48 on the day.

So they rank number one v the run against average to poor run teams.. hey the jets are an average to poor run team and Forte looks like he wished he never left Chicago.

So the line for Forte rush yards is 60.5.. thats odd divide his yards to date by the number of games and you get.. 60… wow could you be any lazier Mr compiler..

So Matt Forte under 60.5 yards has to be this weeks nap selection

Good call there. I think Powell actually aged more snaps than him last week. But can't verify that. Sure I heard it on a podcast. Not sure on my nap of the week tbh. Just done my write up on the Twickenham game and it's largely Beckham-centric which I'm sure he'd appreciate. Will look tomorrow for other bets.

Early thoughts would be the Mike Gillislee anytime at 11/10 or Jacquizz Rodgers over whatever is on offer (looks like 63.5 which I may well suggest lumping on to a large extent) would be competing for nap/nb. However you can also get near Evens for AJ green any time vs a depleted Browns defence.

Apologies. Probably need to explain my reasons more. It looks very likely that shady McCoy will be out for the Bills. They are now a run heavy offence and even with Shady there Gillislee has been scoring. He went for o60 yards and a TD last week as second choice. Shove him in at no. 1 and with his over 5 ypg average. Against a poor run defence. Surely he's going to eat 

Rodgers is the only guy left in the run game for Tampa. Martin suffered a set back. Sims is on IR. Against a team who gave up over 300 yards last week. And 138 the week before to Zeke (the loss of Navarre bowman has killed them) Rodgers was o100 in their last match. They've had a bye and time to rest and analyse. 64 yards seems perfectly acceptable.

been waiting for the line on Rodgers yards as san fran look like they would give up a hundred + to my granny carrying me on her back... after last weeks performance and against the worst run D.. i can see Tampa just pounding it like last week v Carolina

Interesting to see the the handicap has flipped on Tampa now. They were -1 in the week at San Fran. Now +1 so obviously a lot of cash for San Fran. I can't see Tampa losing tbh. I know the niners play better at home. But they're crap. They have lost their best rusher for the week too. Kap isn't very good even the td they had last week was from an awful underthrown pass. Tampa haven't been impressive but have had the week off to concentrate on getting right for this game. What am I missing?

Kaepernick has a lot of baggage but he did throw the ball reasonably well last week. The Buccs haven't scored well in most of their games this season. Perhaps there's a view that they might nick a close one?

I do like Cameron Brate first TD, though, at 14/1. Wouldn't worry about who receives first, as neither team is a heavy scorer.

LOL

It just goes to prove how long it's been since I watched a rugby match, I thought Twickenham had 4 individual stands!

Rodgers yards practically in after 20 mins. I doubled it with AJ green anytime for a little boost.

Over 100 after 21 mins. Printing money

Ari Sea did they both forget there offenses?


has there ever been a 3-0 game at full time ?

Lowest scoring OT game in history

Ah. Apparently lowest scoring overtime tie in history. Won't let me modify that previous one for some reason.

All star receiver struggles to comes to terms with a draw

US Sports don't do draws....

Larry Fitzgerald: "It feels like you lost... You didn’t win, but you didn’t lose. A perplexing feeling.”

a remarkable match really, 27 and 24 yard FGs missed by Haushka and Catanzaro in overtime!

Yes - There was a game between Miami and Pittsburgh on MNF a few years back. It was insanely wet, there was a field goal with about 20 seconds left in regulation to break the 0-0 tie.

EDIT - Vid won't play when embedded because the NFL blocks it being viewed unless you're watching on YouTube's website. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7DTNEa2E7w

Here is a list of all the games in NFL history that have finished 3-0; there's been 6 since the 1970 merger. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_scores_find.cgi?pts_win=3&pts_lose=0

wow 4 games in history have finished 2-0  wonder if thats same scoring system and games were won with a safety
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_scores_find.cgi?pts_win=2&pts_lose=0