blonde poker forum

200/400/50 WSOP 1500 Summer Solstice level 6

Villain#1 is a v.good reg. Expect him to not make a lot of mistakes, not crazy aggro, but decently aggressive. Plays reasonably high-stakes online and live MTTs
I'm reasonably new to the table, but villain knows who I am, knows i'm a pro, but we don't have much history. Villain covers Hero (just).

4 folds
Villain#1 (HJ) raises to 900
Hero (CO) calls
Villain#2 (BTN) calls
2 folds

Flop [3,750] Q84r
Villain#1 bets 2,000
Hero calls
Villain#2 folds

Turn [7,750] Q84 2 (still rainbow)
Villain #1 bets 3,800
Hero calls

River [15,350] Q842 4
Villain#1 all-in
Hero?? (~8k remaining)

What do we think Hero's calling range should be here? We don't perceive Villain to be getting very OOL on these kind of dry runouts. Would assume my range getting to the river looks like Qx, 88 + a small % of AA/KK. Villain's range looks like AQ/88/22/QQ+ for value and a small % of T9s/JTs/J9s possibly rarely as bluffs (not convinced he would triple this runout very often at all with those bluff combos tbh, but can't be sure)

I'd always call aq and most likely kq if I think he's likely at all to bet the turn with it.

Sorry we obviously 3bet aq pre flop, call kq. Qj/qt pretty bad bluff catchers here. This is why tripling all in flop/turn/river is so good because people fold the top of their range a lot

I know GTO-wise folding hands like KQ/AQ isn't a thing in this spot, but when villain gets to this river after doubling hands like JT/T9/J9, it's a question of how often he really expects to get folds from hands like QJ,KQ, which are hands he really needs me to fold for a 3rd barrel to be profitable. Seems to me that a lot of players would just give up, but it's such a 'it depends' spot. Even a hand like AQ really isn't loving life otr in my spot vs a solid reg imo.

you're never loving life when you have a bluff catcher. Bluff catching hands kinda suck for morale.