blonde poker forum

From the following information can someone tell me the probability of the following happening on a roulette wheel ?

1. The probability of 5 being the highest % of plays and 17 being the joint 2nd highest ?

2. The probability of 5 , 17 , 35 being 1st , joint 2nd  and joint 6th highest in % of plays ?


      number drawn     % of plays
1         5                     4.5
2         17                    4.1
3         33                    4.1
4         25                    3.9
5         13                    3.7
6         35                    3.5
7         11                    3.5

Just curious ;)

Should add this is a UK roulette with a single zero.

dont know but the 'number 'is irrelevant, the % or odds will be the same for any given number and or combo, but you prob know that , so my post is pretty unhelpful  :D

By number of plays you mean landed on?

Yeah  , the actual numbers drawn are irrelevant in terms of odds/probabilities.

Obviously any number can have the highest % of plays so for any one single number it is 37-1 including zero.

Trying to work out the double with a joint 2nd has got me a tad confused ;grr;

The second question I haven't got the foggiest.

Doobs is the man for the job I think ;)

Yep

1. Probability of 5 being most popular = 37/1. Probability of 17 being 2nd most popular of the remaining numbers = 36/1. Probability of both = 37/1 x 36/1 = 1332/1.

2. Depends on how specific you want to be regarding "joint 2nd" and "joint 6th" i.e. exactly the same number of rolls or just the same number to one decimal place as a percentage - I think the answer differs depending on which one you choose. Not 100% sure what the maths is irrespective of which one you want  ;D

That's how I worked out a pretty basic probability , so if the numbers 5 17 35 came out the most it would be 37 x 36 x 35 which equates to 46,620-1.

The argument I was having is that the guy from the gaming company supplying the machines said that it was within normal parameters of play but he was only looking at one specific number each time. My argument was that the 3 numbers in question , 5 17 35 , were 1st , joint 2nd , joint 6th in the % of times they came out. The sample size was not over 1 session either , it was over many sessions and many plays.

He argues that its "variance" and nothing unusual for a guy to bet mainly 3 specific numbers and for them to have those percentages. My argument is that I can understand 1 possibly 2 numbers in the top percentages but to get 3 in the top 6 the probability must be extremely high.

What that probability is , is the question.

Don't understand.  Why are you picking these 3 numbers?  One number is always going to be most drawn.  Are you suspicious because these are the 3 most popular numbers for instance.

A guy kept backing those 3 numbers. He had other numbers but those 3 were his "bankers" , usually putting the max of £13.80 on one of them and around £5-£10 on the other two.

Over the course of around 10 days he won every time he played except once when he lost a nominal amount.

The actual numbers themselves are obviously irrelevant but I am trying to get a handle on the probability of those numbers
continually coming out like they did day after day. The machine guy says it's nothing unusual and the percentages are what you can expect.

My point to him was that the 3 numbers were ranked 1st , joint 2nd and joint 6th in there "hit" rate.

Trying to express that in a probability was pretty hard to do but it must be a big bloody number !!

The losses I incurred during that period will take around 6 months to recoup IF the machines run at "normal " variance.

So I am just trying to get some perspective on how the machines under performed shall we say.

You need to provide a complete breakdown of the number of spins and the times each number came up. 

Ok , I am on the case and will report for duty in the morning hopefully  :)up

50p? :P

Thinks me might get round his shop today and make him squirm a tad more

One miserable old git in the shop is enough thank you very much.

It's only 46,620 if they have to come out in that order. But surely it doesn't matter what order they come out - you would still feel the same way if the top three were 17 35 5 or 35 17 5, etc. So the probability of them being the three most occurring numbers (in any sequence) would be 3/37 × 2/36 × 1/35, which is 6/46,620 or 1/7,770. I think the probability of them occurring in any three nominated positions would be the same. The probability of the three numbers occurring anywhere in the top seven would be considerably lower.

Yeah , never thought of that , we're getting there slowly.

Thanks Trev , far more helpful than the other Trev , he's a right stick in the mud.

Just play those numbers yourself until you get your money back.

No need to thank me.

Are you related to Typhoon Trev by any chance ?

Right I have some data from the sessions they gave me. There are a few more losing days still to be logged to

see if it was the same chap but the data for the numbers I gave earlier are...

538 spins with  5... 24 times ; 17....22 times ; 35...19 times.

So , those 3 numbers came out a total of 65 times out of 538 spins.

If my maths is correct you would expect any 3 numbers to come out 43.63 times and any one number 14.54 times ,

obviously over a much larger sample.

So can any maths expert work out the probability using the above figures ?

Stolen from here: http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/102769/how-do-you-calculate-the-standard-deviation-for-roulette

That is for an american roulette wheel but we'll go with it for now

standard deviation = root 33.207 = 5.7625

Your man landed 65/538 with expectation of 44/38, so the difference was 21 hits which is 21/5.7625 =  3.644 standard deviations away from the mean over his sample

(http://libweb.surrey.ac.uk/library/skills/Number%20Skills%20Leicester/images/pic011.gif)

Which puts you pretty far down the chart, so if they took 1,000 machines and they all had 538 spins and were ordered by amount paid out, yours was the 5th highest paying machine this time if it had two zeroes

With only one zero your edge is smaller so his results won't be quite as far away from the mean. My intuition is that it won't change it by very much since the second zero only represents one of 37 possible outcomes but I'm not sure on that.

Its pretty gross but it is (just about) within normal bounds assuming that the calcs are correct.

Having looked at the numbers the 50p was a bit harsh so apologies for that, I'm a little sensitive about people running bad this month :P
(http://i.imgur.com/TiTXji2.png)

add all the numbers up on a roulette wheel and it comes to 666

stay the **** away, the devils game

Bookiebasher is a provider of the service, not the player....

The devil operates in mysterious ways...... Makes sense in this case as he is masquerading as a good lad  ;snoopy'sguns; ;snoopy'sguns; :)

Thought you were banned

Hey no worries Darren , thanks for your input , much appreciated . Will make it a £1 next time I post  ;)

All I basically wanted to know was how bad I ran .

The company supplying the machines said it was normal "variance"

I disagreed but could not argue my case with correct statistical analysis .

well aware of that, was a tongue in cheek observation.

calm down  :tikay:

You ran worse than bad but not impossibly bad. Google three sigma events....

Oh no , that's going to get me really involved and I am slightly drunk at present so will investigate

 " three sigma events "  in the morning.

Come on then , probability , anyone ? 1000-1 , 5000-1 ?

Where's Woodsey when you need him ? rotflmfao

Funnily enough I'm out of the office this week and at least a couple of sheets to the wind already 😄

DTD , cash game later ? , go on , you know you want to . ;D

In the Isle of Wight currently mate, otherwise yes  ;danafish;

Poor excuse ;bumwiggle;

Its Dan but no worries :)

0.2% makes it a 500-1 shot

Yeah sorry Dan , course it is . Getting confused with the snooker player  and a few pints of cloudy cider  :blonde:

Talking of "three sigma events" did you know that in the world of particle physics, especially at CERN, to ensure they are not just looking at statistical deviation when analysing data, they require a FIVE sigma threshold before they accept something as valid rather than just statistical deviation.

That's a lot of sigmas, whatever they are. 

That also tells us that in truth, Lucky Jim is really running rather well. And he is a BOOKIE looking for sympathy. Good luck with that. 

I am not looking for sympathy , I am looking for the statistical probability of it happening. That way I can put it into
some sort of perspective rather than thinking the machine has a glitch/software malfunction/security breach , all sorts
of things go round your head .

I know I am there to be shot at , and I have been shot many times but this one was much more than a flesh wound.

Hard to argue with the "yield" men at the gaming company when you can't get a handle on the probability.

It's great that you can post on Blonde and get some really good information from more knowledgeable than myself ,

such as Typhoon , Red Dog and Woodsey ;D

And this one man is a 500/1 shot.  If you have had 50 similar people come through over the years then you are getting close to 1 in 10.

I certainly wouldn't dismiss it.  There can always be a glitch in software.  Machine man should file a report so that they can spot a pattern if it happens again.  There was a story I read a year or two back about somebody making millions from a machine glitch in Vegas.

The most likely reason is just bad variance still.

Have you banned him yet? 

What is your hypothesis?  The machine is malfunctioning or the player is interfering with it?

If the former the relevant numbers should be coming up with a higher frequency for ALL players not just one.  If the latter, it would be surprising if the issue was restricted to your shop.

Jeez , I have a headache and it's not the cloudy cider from last night.

I wonder if the guys at the gaming company have heard of three sigma events , I wonder  :)

Where's Woodsey when you need him ?

I was going to ban him but my rep told me to hang on in and over the next two days he won a few thousand more.

Current circumstances with separating from the modern day version of  Queen Mary , and monies being "locked" with solicitors meant I didn't have a lot of choice but to politely request we have a chat and while paying him his last £2500 I said to the young lad that he was in a unique and privileged position in being the first person I have barred in 26 years at this particular office. He was quite chuffed.  :(

We had quite a long conversation which gave me complete confidence that he was not interfering in any way with the
machines. As a back up I had someone outside to take his car registration number , just in case ;)

I know that it is a backward step by barring him but I was forced into this position by external factors although I must say
I don't have the fear of seeing his face come through the door now :)

I haven't got a hypothesis. All sorts of stuff goes through your mind when it's relentless , day after day and totally
off the scale of anything like it happening in all the previous years. That's why if I can get a rough probability figure
I can put it into some sort of context. Off the top of my head I thought it was in the thousands to one it happening and
it was slightly annoying the gaming guys saying its within normal variance.

As Jim Royal would say ..... normal variance my arse.

Sorry Jim, but I did laugh at "Queen Mary".......

Never mind, roll on Saturday when all those short priced accas go down, & you get the lot.

Sky Bet do a "Price Boosted" Treble every Saturday, which really looks appetising & good value. Can't remember the last time all 3 won though. They know, them bookies, they know. All 1 sigma stuff there.

Still waiting for you to go in a proper bookies and do the write up !!

Put some "tips for tikay" money on 5 17 35 , can't lose  ;)

I know a member of a syndicate that made a lotta cash on these machines

They moved around bookmaker shops backing certain numbers at certain times in the day

Some software geek from control was making sure a percentage of these numbers dropped in on time

But like every good thing in life they all got a tad greedier and software geek got caught

Wherever cash is involved there will always be some form of corruption

Not saying this is what happened in Jims shop

Poor bookiebasher he now knows how it feels for a change

Talking of extreme variance, & pardon the sharp change of tack, but did you see the story in today's newspapers about three people drowning in unconnected incidents at Rye, Camber Sands yesterday?

All three died whilst swimming in the same bay in a 15 minute period.

The odds of that must be astronomical. 

Shush, they seem to have forgotten all about that.

Anyway, no chance this weekend, I'll be far away from any place that has internet or a Ladbrokes.  Such places do exist, apparently.

Since splitting up I have forgot how it feels actually.

Has Caroline managed to eventually get a smile out of you yet ?

I understand it's been many years.

Clue - it's not Glasgow, which is where this place is, according to a Tweet I saw from Ryan Spittles.

If it was just variance by barring him you are losing the chance for him to give you some of the money back...

Yes , I totally understand that , although the phrase " give " does not seem the correct word.

"Invest " would be more appropriate.  ;)

But you could say that about the thousands of accounts online bookmakers close.

I know it was the wrong decision financially long term ( with normal variance ! ) but sometimes you
just have to bite the bullet. The guy could effectively have wiped me out if he continued his run for
another week or two. Other external factors were also a contributory factor in making the tough decision
to bar him .

All I am saying is that at this particular moment in my life , it WAS the correct decision for me.

I wouldn't worry about it, it isn't entirely illogical. The more he won, the more likely it was a scam.   Now you at least have piece of mind he isn't going to scam you in future. 

How will you feel if come Monday morning some new bloke comes in maxing out on all mateys numbers?!

Uneasy to say the least . Suppose I could give him £500 to get a share of the action :-).

Would probably watch on the back office and if the numbers continued to hit I would probably block all
the terminals .

I did hear of a Ladbrokes shop very close to me , had a winning punter on one of the machines and within two hours
that machine was taken away physically out of the shop.

In the interview it pleaded the fifth amendment.

fixed

Well I did see that he has recently added a swimming pool to his abode and proudly posted a picture of it.

I wonder which number he hit ?

That's enough taking the piss out of Jim. I for one feel really sorry for him.

I do. Honest.

You met the ex then Tom ?

Now that you mention it, no Jim, I haven't. I've never looked at you as the marrying kind, and yet, as I type, I'm starting to remember a conversation we had about 10 years ago when you gave me a lift back from Brighton.

BTW- before anyone jumps to any conclusions, he didn't propose to me or anything.

I remember that very well and your kind hospitality with Mrs Red.

The swimming pool wasn't built then.

Not the marrying kind ?

That does intrigue me.

Well I don't know if I mean not the marrying kind really, just that you always seem like a man who does what he likes and goes where he likes and answers to no one.

There aren't many of us left.  :P

Your missus no long looks at Blondepoker anymore Tom? :)

She's away, I don't think she has access to wifi.

Not that I'm bothered.  ;nemesis;

 ;tightend;

Well it may have seemed like that and it was probably like that but not necessarily through choice.

Every friend/mate/punter/ neighbour she objected to or seemed to fall out with. Never had a good word
to say about anyone.

I was quite liberal with money , she always thought people took advantage of me where as I thought
apart from being sociable it was "good business".

She loved to create a scene in our younger days when out in public so eventually I stopped going out
in large groups or even in a 4 because it was embarrassing .

Even last year she stormed out the pub when she tried to listen in on a conversation I was having and got
totally the wrong end of the stick. I finished up in Derby police station till 1 the next day because of that.

You may be right in your assessment and obviously two sides to every story but I certainly missed going
on so many jollies/holidays with other couples because of Queen Mary. ;D

I remember one funny story when we were at Cartmel races for a couple of days with a group . Queen Mary
wanted an early night and  I am a lightweight drinker so we went to bed and I was wrecked.

She started messing around and to be honest I was struggling and she said " Tell me what turns you on ? "

My immediate response was " A pair of aces " . I started laughing and she just didn't get it , literally .

That was a long time ago !!

Loving the diary Jamie :)

Was he new to your shop? Did he punt on anything else?

A family friend was a bookie, just retired but had a similar thing a few years back.

Never found out why this guy cleaned up for days/weeks, he did eventually ban him.

Hope things sort itself out for you.

I thought I had seen him before but just a small stakes player £10-£20 a visit.

Certainly not a regular.

Certainly not anymore anyway  .