blonde poker forum

Hi Everyone.

Decided to start this thread to record my Southwell thoughts for the all weather winter season.

I am currently travelling for rehab twice or three times a week. This taxi journey has so far been partly funded by the NHS and is currently costing me £50-£100 per week.

It will shortly be costing me £150ish a week (the hospital that offers the rehab is not that local as you can tell). I have considered starting a paid tipster service/blog but with the health issues, I do not feel I can do that with the slight uncertainty that still remains.

I have decided to record everything here, if you profit/enjoy the selections and analysis then maybe you could send a few quid my way.

I am no way saying you need to or have to. The selections will be here available to all, if they benefit you Pm me for details.

I had "bought" access to a 365 and Hills account shortly before I got ill. These are no longer available to me so I will not be personally backing these selections.

I will only be watching Southwell. I have spent the free time I have the last fortnight watching replays catching up with the form book and have a list of horses both I think will go well there and those that have done so previously. Anything I put up here I would be happy to back at the price I advise them at.

I also toyed with the idea of doing some kind of just giving page or similar. I have decided against that as the money if any will mostly be used for transport. Anything over and above that I will be using to help the Intensive Care Dept at the hospital in question in whatever way I can.

I hope people take this thread with the intention it was setup with. I have cleared this with Tikay before posting.

Southwell All Weather fixture list.

Thursday 10th November 2016
Tuesday 22nd November 2016
Tuesday 6th December 2016
Tuesday 13th December 2016
Tuesday 20th December 2016
Thursday 29th December 2016
Sunday 1st Jan 2017
Monday 2nd Jan 2017
Thursday 5th Jan 2017
Tuesday 10th Jan 2017
Thursday 19th Jan 2017
Tuesday 24th Jan 2017
Thursday 26th Jan 2017
Monday 30th Jan 2017
Thursday 2nd Feb 2017
Friday 10th Feb 2017
Tuesday 21st Feb 2017
Tuesday 7th March 2017
Thursday 9th March 2017
Tuesday 14th March 2017
Wednesday 15th March 2017
Tuesday 21st March 2017
Wednesday 29th March 2017
Tuesday 4th April 2017
Thursday 6th April 2017


That takes us all the way to All weather champions day on Good Friday elsewhere.



Betting Style/Bank

I will be putting up thoughts/bets between 5 and 6pm the evening before and then again at 10am on the morning of the meetings.

The bets will either be a total of a 1pt or 2pts (0.5pts each way or 1pt win or 1pt each way or 2pts win)

I will not look at nursery races or the majority of sellers and/or claimers. I will look at all the maidens but the majority of selections will be in all age handicaps (still leaves plenty of races).

I will try and give opinions/bets for each meeting but can't guarantee I will be around for all of them. If there is not anything of interest I will post.

Thanks guys will post Wednesday evening for Thursday.

Hi John

I will definitely support this, and I hope others do, too.

You have given us loads of decent winners, now we have a chance to repay one of our own when they most need it.

Good luck mate.

Good luck with this.

What bank are you suggesting? You mentioned 1 pt or 2 points but not the bank?

Have you appealed over the NHS not funding all the transport to rehab, seems a bit redic you have to stump up so much to get there and back?

In.

Signing in to this. What an excellent idea.

Best of luck with this, and even more with your ongoing recovery.

GL horsey and look forward to sending you some dough :)up

Hey, any particular reason why you are only recording Southwell thoughts/tips?

Best of luck btw.

Would love to participate and support if at all possible.

Best of luck sir.

How much did it cost to have access to a Hills account?

I may or may not know someone who might or might not have an unrestricted account  ;whistle;

Good luck with this, would be happy to donate.

Happy to help get a bet on if you need it. One of the few I have left personally is Hills.

Hope you smash it.

Best of luck with it Horsie!

This! Good luck!

Very interesting

I am massive Southwell fan of the sand racing visiting quite often

Hope this goes well

Very best of luck

In!

best of luck with this and the rehab.

John may be too bashful to answer that honestly, so I'll give it a try.

He has always specialised in Southwell AW stuff, & previously wrote some really insightful stuff on Southwell, some of which he shared with us.

I'll be very surprised indeed if his tips don't turn a profit.

Fred has been gifted with 4 or 5 really good horse racing judges, including (alphabetically.....) Adzy, Chomps, Doobs, Horsey, Mr Ambo & several others. (No slight intended if I forgot 1 or 2 others).

Most of the Elders here would give Horsey good references for Southwell, imo.

Horseplayer,

Whilst others have sneered, I have always been fascinated by Southwell.

It has always seemed to me that the Southwell surface is very different than the other all weather tracks in that its somewhat deeper sand, there is more kick-back and is softer. There are a lot of horses, on occasion good horses, who just hate the surface so much they throw their toys out of the pram, run way below form then never return.

Without giving away your secrets, I have some questions if you have time to answer:

How would you certify the ground at Southwell? Obviously its officially "standard" but it rides way slower than say Kempton.

Do you focus more on horses with course form than you might with other tracks?

In maidens, do you dig deep into each horse's pedigree to try and guess which horses may appreciate the surface?

Do you focus more on front runners or horses that like to run closer to the pace rather than horses whom like to come from the back, thereby avoiding the kick-back which horses usually despise? To the naked eye, it never looks easy to make up ground.

Good Luck with this.

 more importantly.......










Is it South Well or Suthell?  :)

In

Never liked the place, as racing there just isn't easy on the eye, but sure there's money to be made.

The argument that horses that prefer cut on turf should like Fibresand is guff imo. Some fast-ground horseys like it, some soft grounders don't. But there doesn't seem to be any way of knowing before they've run on it.

Dave Bellingham used to look for horses with frequent IR comments like "prom, one pace", the logic being you want a horse able to keep up one decent tempo for the entire trip. This place certainly isn't one for turn of foot merchants.

In

Happy to help "get on" if you want me to also. Or start a little fund which is John's fund to use as he see fit. I have a couple of options for B365 at the moment and WH.

Thank you Tony your support is much appreciated as ever.

Think I'm going to rethink the bank idea will post about that later. Obviously feel free to follow as and how you like,

The transport is a thorny issue. They state as I can now walk (which I can to a degree) the funding is no longer there. Tbf I hate to think how much the nhs has supported me over the years especially this one. The rehab I had when there was first class.

I want to keep going as the rehab guys at the original Hosptial are the best around.

Thanks reds

Good luck at the 'grinding' track Horsey.  It always looks such hard work getting home there maybe it is just because the horses that run there are garbage or the home straight is nearly a mile long.  Agree with Chompy on it not being easy on the eye but definitely a potential gold mine if you do your homework.  Can't remember coming away from there in the few visits i have ever made with more money than i went with though.  Only time ever was a NH meeting.  Grim place to drive to and frequent but like you say money is money.

Thanks everyone  every message is appreciated

Hi Brett

Good questions wish I had all the answers....

The going is nearly always standard officially but often is deeper than that. Personally agree with Chompy the soft ground theory does not wash it can be quite random what does and doesn't act at Southwell.

There are quite a few examples of course specialists who first time looked to hate the track. I think a lot is getting into the rhythm usually near the front and as others have said staying there by grinding away.

Re maidens thinks like US in the breeding tends to be mentioned a lot more these days than 8 years ago and is probably factored in. Personally I try to look at trainers who do better than they should here.

An example would be Andrew balding. He is in the top tier of trainers or close to it but most that he runs act even those whose pedigrees say they shouldn't .

I'll try and expand on all this over the season.

That old chestnut ;)  If you buy the mentions of this on atr this winter we will all be in clover.

Like daves theory makes a lot of sense. As said on other post a decent angle is a spotlight or form comment mentioning the soft ground thing as a given.

Cheers chomps

Cheers arb certainly seems a bloody long way home when yours is two clear at the top of the straight and nothing happens for the next minute ;)

Thanks Callum appreciated


Thanks Lisa appreciated

Hope I didn't miss anyone there I'm typing on a tablet at present so please allow the odd or more error.

Special thanks to someone who has already been very kind, won't embarass him on here but deep rooted thanks.

Re the bank I will start with a fictional bank of £2000. A 1pt stake will be 2.5% A 2pt stake will be 5%. Adjusted as we go.

The quality of the racing gets better the closer we get to the new year. There is a good sprint tomorrow at this stage bets if any will be in the first two heats good old class 6 mile handicaps ;)

Will post tomorrow around 5-6pm and then again 10am approx Thursday.

Thanks all

All the very best of luck with this John.

Will be following with interest...hopefully.

In, not sure what it is or how to participate but can smell something good from a mile off.  Love Blonde.

So sorry to read of your health travails, Horsey, but pleased that mending progress is being made. I'm "in with the in crowd" on this thread, and hoping to be making monthly transfers to your travel fund.

As a footnote, like others I've found Southwell hard to decipher in terms of translating form from other courses and ground. Delighted to discover that far better judges than me have found this tricky too. Delighted to have a chance to learn from a Southwell specialist.

Very best of luck, sir.

Good luck Horsey. Hope you smash it!

The brain certainly does not work at the same speed it used to! Taken me 3 hours to do forecasts and notes for the two races im interested in tomorrow.

When doing these regularly you would be looking at 30 minutes per race max and that's for a race with less form and more digging required.

That has definitely made my mind up to stick for a couple of races max for now at least.

Back at 5/6pm with selections at this stage.

And after all that at this stage

No bets ;)

Frustrating but there is very little which differs wildly  from my tissue at this stage could change by the morning of course.

Be back at 10/11 tomorrow

gl with the fibresand and all the best with your recovery

On the cost of taxis, have you tried contacting local private hire drivers that do airport runs etc? They might cut you a better deal for a regular journey. Depending on where you live, grinding the Uber signup bonuses can be pretty effective too. The first person in my group of friends to use uber referred everyone else and ended up getting a good £200 worth of free trips.

Thanks for the post Dan

I am already getting a good price (or the best I can) tbf to the hospital they are offering me ambulance transport once a week, however this turns a 30-45 minute journey each way into a 2 hour one. I am in no rush but getting there knackered defeats the point of the rehab.

Hopefully if things keep improving it will be an option in the new year

Thanks again

For those that can get £25 on with Patrick online, southwell is free bet if 2ND to sp fav.

Thanks for that Simon

I won't always post my tissue but for today I will. Am keeping records of all tissues to see how accurate I am or am not.

The 12.55 has no interest can't quite get my head around it.

I did this tissue for the 12.25 at 2pm yesterday. I appreciate most people will do this anyway but for those who don't, this is a "blind" tissue I had not looked at any forecast prices before putting together.

MY TISSUE AT 2PM 09/11/2016

niqnaqpadiwaaq 4/1, cascading stars 5/1, barista 6/1, princess peaches 15/2,
limerick lord 8/1, bunker hill lass 10/1, east coast lady 16/1, albert boy 16/1,
davey boy 20/1, general tufto 33/1, or so 40/1

Fairly accurate at this stage a lot can change by the race of course. I would expect to get these sort of heats at least close, the horses are all exposed most have ran here before and there are no trainer changes of note.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/southwell/12:25/winner

A lot at the top of the market are similar types. Here are some of my notes on the runners from yesterday again I won't post this every race will get a bit much to read.

Bolded comments are added today to reflect the price as of now.

niqnaqpadiwaaq  = aqlaam small sire sample at southwell doing ok (3-15) horse looks ideal type (keen going likes to lead one paced late)

The horse is 1-17 for career (a recurring theme) doesn't appear to do masses wrong in its races, at current price happy to let it win.

cascading stars = tagula average sire here, held up last time never ran well when held up best recent runs when close up running style suggests suits.trainer in decent form ( 3 winners in last week after a quiet spell)

The horse is 1-28 with 6 seconds hardly compelling. I may have been in a bit short at 5s but have to suggest a small bet at 10/1 win only. Horse looks the type to take tothis test very one paced best when raced from the front. Can easily forgive Lingfield last time dropped out back not quick enough to run that track well anymore it seems.

davey boy  = won a maiden here at 50/1 on that win a mark of 63 looks fine (2nd and 3rd in that maiden solid 70 animals now) however been beaten 170 lengths last three starts.

This is the one horse in the race that could win or finish tailed. I may have been over at 20s but I couldn't touch it at 8/9-1 now after being beaten so far last three starts even though elsewhere. I presume the gamble is on the maiden win which makes the horse well handicapped now.




SUGGESTED BET 1PT WIN CASCADING STARS 10/1 (3 FIRMS AS OF 9.50AM)

Lovely write up Horsey. Generally speaking, how far above your tissue would you want a horse priced before you make it a bet?

Also paddy in shop are 1/4 1-4 the 1:55. That must throw up some value darts.

With BOG until 1pm, where's my spider....

Agree with this.  One question.  Why do you price your tissue to 105% and not 100%?

That is a hell of an offer. I added Elusivity to my notebook for Southwell after the Nottingham run last time where he showed plenty of his old speed. This grade might be to hot but I will be watching for further down the winter.

Clerk of the Course just told ATR that the track should be riding standard after the recent rain otherwise might have been deep/slow fwiw.

Thank you, I would want a bit of wiggle room no hard and fast rules for me. A tissue is very useful as a guide but if I put in a Barney Curley horse (ok not now but similar connections) at 10s and it was 100s on Betfair would I then back it? Not for me.

There are I am sure plenty who will just back anything out of line on their tissue. I try and use a bit of "feel" along with the tissue.


Thanks Arb. Good question! Habit from when i tried to get onto the Rp i think (even though that was 1% or 2% a runner) will price to 100% from here on in.

Thanks for all feedback.

Surprising late punt on East Coast Lady hold up animal who often looks awkward at the start and can miss the break totally.

Fwiw here are the notes on that one.

east coast lady = kodiac slightly below a/e at southwell, horse often very slowly away class dropper trainer very cold 1/60 but has had 9 seconds.

No excuses there , they possibly went a touch hard but had a good position 2 out head went to the side and chucked the towel in.

The very old boy General Tufto running on for 3rd was good to see. Be back later tonight or possibly tomorrow with notes from today and in general.

Thanks all

Ok I will ask, what do we mean by "tissue" ?

Steve

Hi Horsey, good stuff.
Wont you be better off keeping your tissue prices to 105-108% like you were pricing up for a bookie, as they wont be betting to 100%

Just a price guide Steve. The thing you see in the racing post/ sporting life online think Oddschecker has one as well.

Just helps to start the analysis of a race, if i was a bit less rusty I would not always do one especially for a race like that with not to many unknowns.

Hi atdc thanks.

The on course return was 115% obviously this is outdated maybe 105-110% is better the night before, I am very much open to feedback on that.

Right must go now, thanks all

The whole idea of a tissue for a pro punter is to back things with a bigger chance of winning than your tissue says.  You are not a bookmaker.  You shouldn't add a margin to your tissue.  You are trying to beat the bookmaker by backing true 4/1 shots at 5/1+  If you make a horse 5/1 and put a margin into your tissue it becomes a 4/1 or 9/2 shot and when you see 5/1 you think you have an edge when you don't.

To use a similar view of a dice.  The tissue is 5/1 each of six.  If you price your tissue like a bookmaker you will go 4/1 each of 6 and bet to 120%.  If you then see 9/2 or 5/1 about one of your selections you will back it based on your tissue but the true price is 5/1.  A tissue should always be priced to 100% exactly.  It is a probability guide to each selections chances of winning.

Ah ok Arb, i see from the point of view of betting we want to work from 100%
Years ago when i first started betting i knew man who worked out tissue prices for bookmakers, obvs he worked to their margin, thats what prob confused me.

No worries.  As horsey says earlier regarding how close to your tissue do you bet that generally comes to how skilled you are at pricing up things.  The better you are the more confident you can be of pushing smaller edges.  It also comes down to your risk profile as an individual (ie how risk loving you are) and also whether you wish to operate a high margin model or a high volume model.

In pre Betfair days I used to make my tissue a 90% book.

With a view that if you got your tissue price you had a bet i assume as you had the edge you needed?

Southwell Review 10/11/2016

12.25

Mostly negatives I am taking from this race. The two main gambles were Davey Boy and East Coast Lady and both never looked liked getting involved let alone winning.
Davey Boy just looks devoid of ability and the maiden win must now just go down to one of those freak efforts and the only time he has been near the lead. East Coast Lady was a bizarre late gamble, missed the break badly as per Curtis panicked and rushed her up. She then hit all the kickback and looked to resent it and dropped away. Be amazed if she runs here again this winter.

Cascading Stars the selection had no excuses, had a good position having shown good speed early once pressure was applied his head went to the side and he just plodded on once paced to the line. Only way he can win here is if he can get an easy lead in an even weaker race probably a seller/claimer. Won't be for me after that.

Credit to the winner Barista, now 9 wins in a long career he ran poorly only other try here years ago which was the major negative but he won easily in the end. In a field of horses that like to place he showed a good attitude and no doubt will win once or twice more before the turf starts again.


12.55

The second division saw a track regular win easily in Stun Gun. Fourth win here for this likeable animal showed a good attitude throughout. Will now be up to 0-70 class which makes life harder but can never rule out around here.

Swansway made his Southwell debut, breeding all positive and was backed from 7/1 very early the night before to a solid 2/1 fav come the race. Had first-time headgear and raced closer to the speed than before. Never looked like getting to the winner but for a 3-year-old to get close to Stun Gun on debut here is a good effort. The way it was backed suggests it he should win here before the season is over. Added to tracker albeit could be short next time.


1.25

For a maiden auction stakes this looks a fair enough race. The winner was a surprise but it looks believable, the horse with the most form and the James Tate horse in third.

Otomo has a frustrating looking profile but didn't do a lot wrong and looks worth trying at 6 or especially 5 furlongs around here. Has now shown very good pace all starts since debut. Added to tracker for a maiden/handicap around here (chance might even get dropped from 66 for this).

Lulu The Rocket had her third quick run for a handicap mark here and has been beaten slightly less each run. Very slowly away then pushed up halfway in touch before taken to the usually worst part of the track. This showed some promise and depending on the handicap mark may be of interest back here. Trainer does well here without too many runners. Added to tracker.


1.55

Best race on the card by a long way and produced a winner likely to be in all the best sprints here this winter. Showdaisy looks a different filly since the cheekpieces have been applied.

Oriental Relation is a very good all weather sprinter but ran a strange race here. Has not been held up for a long time but was deliberately taken back here and all chance had gone. A mark of 83 is a touch high but a return to front-running will surely come next time. Added to tracker


2.25

No view here it is a nursery.

2.55

Looks a touch weaker than the earlier maiden.

Fleeting Glimpse was quite solid in the market for Andrew Balding. Raced keenly on debut and hood on which suggests she has shown that at home. It didn't calm her down here but the free going style could pay dividends eventually here. Baldings very rarely win on debut so improvement can be expected. added to tracker


3.25

Probably most interesting race on the card.

The winner High Command started fav for a Doncaster maiden on debut and didn't run a yard in hindsight 10 furlongs would have been way too short. Had two more runs for a mark showed promise at Newcastle and then won this easily enough from 69. Looks a thorough stayer don't think the track was of particular benefit just ahead of his mark, looked one paced two out before running on strongly to the line. Has an entry at Kempton and will be short to follow up.

Safrina Marina ran on first look an amazing race here. 6 lengths behind after a furlong the rider at no stage panicked and she made smooth progress until 3 out when she was taken to the far rail (normally a disadvantage but seemed ok yesterday). She is usually held up but not that far out of her ground and she finished full of running. Her trainer Martin Smith has had a 50/1 winner this winning at 33s in recent weeks so maybe the stable is coming right. Her running style is possibly not ideal around here so she is reluctantly left out of the tracker.

Captain Swift is hardly a win machine. However, if he remains on a mark of 62 after this he should be capable of winning around here. Again the hold-up style is not ideal around here but he is definitely well handicapped. added to tracker


3.55

Hands and heels race, main thought is well done Charles Smith a win for a veteran here in Alpha Tauri at 20/1 after the Southwell legend General Tufto ran third in the opener at 66/1. Great to see these old warriors still going.

RECORD SO FAR

Starting Bank £2000

Bets

Cascading Stars 1pt win (£ 50) 10/1 SP =  8/1  Finished 5th of 11. LOST

End Bank £ 1950

Tracker Horses

Already in tracker

Elusivity

Added from meeting 10/11/2016.

Captain Swift
Fleeting Glimpse
Lulu The Rocket
Oriental Relation
Otomo
Swansway

No entries at present.

Next meeting is this Tuesday

Done tissues for two races today. Got a very busy day tomorrow so if there any bets Monday night I will just post brief reasoning and try and catch up a bit Tuesday.

Tracker Horses

Already in tracker

Elusivity

Added from meeting 10/11/2016.

Captain Swift
Fleeting Glimpse
Lulu The Rocket
Oriental Relation
Otomo
Swansway

Captain Swift entered tomorrow in 12.50

Decided nothing for tomorrow.

It is a very tough card and I have had a very tough and tiring day at rehab and need sleep badly.

Will watch all of tomorrow and update the tracker horses as and when after racing.

Next meeting December 6th

Cheers all

I saw Pancake Day opened at 12-1 for the 11.50 on 365, would have loved to have had some of that.


Enjoy your sleep, I look forward to the next write up  :)up

My man for horse tips has put up Sir Geoffrey in the 1220 and Kafeel in the 1250 at 7/1 and 66/1 respectively.

Southwell has been abandoned due to a waterlogged track

Wonder if sky dogs from Nottingham tonight will survive given it is right next door?

Nottingham horse-racing track is literally right next door, Southwell is about ten miles away and prone to flooding.

John,

Did you see the Southwell results this Tuesday?

Of the 7 races, 6 were won by the jolly, & the 7th by the 2nd fav.

Those poor bookies, eh?

Sorry tikay only  just seen this

Was a jumps card certainly good for the shop punters

Next card Tuesday slight issue with laptop being broken so will post selections at least. Still be doing the work

Tracker Horses

Elusivity
Captain Swift
Fleeting Glimpse
Lulu The Rocket
Oriental Relation
Otomo
Swansway

Captain Swift entered tomorrow in 1.20

1pt win captain swift 10/1 sports book 1.20

1pt win st Patrick's day 12/1 365 2.50

1pt win Bapak bangsawan 25/1 365 3.20

Will do reasoning tomorrow am when hopefully have laptop access

Cheers

Brief reasoning now that rush is over.

Captain Swift, shame not a 8 runner heat, nothing changed since went into notebook infact this is a similar race as to last time just a smaller field. The fav could be 8/13 come the start and will probably win. However we have at least one other genuine front runner this time who I hope can at least make High Command go a bit quicker early on. Captain Swift does not win often so could well be wrong but this step up in trip looks to suit. In my tissue at 5-6/1 fwiw,

St Patricks Day, captain obvious this won 2 from 3 here still only 4 had a lovely spin at wolver last time without the visor where despite looking well beaten got no run and Aspell then found more trouble again just to be sure (was any price on the machine). Visor back on, handicap mark is fine and either of its wins here give it a good chance here. Not got an obvious running style for here (slowly away can fly jump) but hasn't stopped him before. Loads of pace on here with Royal Holiday the seven time course winner the rightful fav and one who is very hard to pass. Tissue price was 7s for me, guess they booked Aspell to try and help the price that has not appeared to have worked judging by the quick crash.

Bapak Bangsawan, ladies and gentlemen we have a Ann Stokel horse :). Those who have not seen her she is not a good rider but if she does win anywhere it is here over a sprint trip where she just has to send them. She has done well with this horse and the horse is all speed. There is loads of speed in this but there always is over the minimum here. What makes a bet is the fact one first time after a similar break last year here and the handicap mark is fine. Tissue was 16s, would not amaze me if this actually drifts in the morning.

Wow!

These have all shortened a lot!

Bugger, the prices have all gone.

GL today John.

Cheers gents


Especially with the earlier meetings the prices will go quickly, lots of horses that have not been here for a while running awfully elsewhere but probably been waiting for this place to get going again.

I didnt spend one minute on the first three races.

1.20 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/southwell/13:20/winner

Encouraging to see the Appleby horse being backed at big prices with first-time blinkers. Suggests this will be ridden aggressively hopefully puts the fav under some pressure early at least. Captain Swift seems settled around the 6s mark now.

1.50 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/southwell/13:50/winner

Very very tricky race. Plenty of regulars and types that look likely to go well here spent ages on it by my tissue was fairly close to the prices.

2.20 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/southwell/14:20/winner

Best Tamayuz was close to a bet at the opener 6s last night but was not quite big enough over the tissue, the jockey has ridden a couple of winners lately but is not the strongest.

2.50 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/southwell/14:50/winner

In a nice position with the selection now. However for a class 5 this is very deep Royal Holiday is rock solid, the Roger Fell horse is being backed and has a good strike rate in career and the trainer is on fire since moving into O Mearas old yard. Summer Collection is likely to improve at some stage for joining Burke from Hills and Limerick Lord is solid enough around here. Even Whozthecat has some form from way back when over 5 furlongs when nearly beating Even Stevens around here (one of the best fibresand sprinters ever) he is better over shorter but a big run would not amaze me.

I would not be surprised if St Patricks drifts a bit just before the start with the in-running players well aware of the slow starts.

3.20 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/southwell/15:20/winner

Pancake Day been well backed again (was very well backed before abandoned last week),certainly has a chance but is not thrown in. John Egan rode really well at Lingfield yesterday and seems to have his winners in streaks these days so that is a positive.

Bapak around 25s still not much more to say, just as likely to finish last as win but that run this time last year wins this or goes very close.

Good luck all back tomorrow to review and update the tracker.

Unlucky with St Patricks Day, always extra annoying when they are backed in from 12/1 to 7/2 and don't win.

Probably did well to finish 3rd given its awful start (something you did note). Saying that, Kirby stole the race as he often does.

Review of Bets

Happy with two of them not so much Captain Swift.

1.20

High Command is just to good for this grade, highly doubt we see him here again. Captain Swift is a flatterer and I got sucked in after last time closing late into a field that was stopping bar H Command. Removed from shortlist.

2.50

St Patrick's Day no excuses ran probably similar to last year just could not make up the ground quick enough, Kirby as Horneris says did what he does at Lingfield here, he normally hates riding here maybe a sign he will ride here more from now on? Today was the day for Patrick in terms of a big price anyway (until next year)

3.20

Bapak Bangsawan started 8/1 from the 25s suggested, didn't see that coming but good that others seemingly agreed. Led showed pace then stopped Ann got seriously stuck in and response. Not for notebook but could be of interest at those prices again.


The fog means I cant suggest anything added to the tracker mainly because to much of the races were "missing".

Already in tracker

Captain Swift
Fleeting Glimpse
Lulu The Rocket
Oriental Relation
Otomo
Swansway
Elusivity

Captain Swift Removed from tracker after 06/12/2016 run.

Nothing added from meeting 06/12/2016 due to visibility issues.

RECORD SO FAR

Starting Bank £2000

Bets

Cascading Stars 1pt win (£ 50) advised 10/1 SP =  8/1  Finished 5th of 11. LOST

End Bank £ 1950

06/12/2016

Starting Bank £1950

Bets

Captain Swift 1pt win advised £48.75   10/1 SP = 12/1 Finished 6th of 7. LOST

St Patrick's Day 1pt win advised £48.75 12/1 SP= 5/1 Finished 3rd of 11. LOST

Bapak Bangsawan 1pt win advised £48.75 25/1 SP= 8/1 Finished 8th of 14 LOST

Bank Carried Forward £1803.75

Thought you may have some insight on this story, John, as I gather Graham Gibbons is a sort of "all weather track" specialist.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/gibbons-takes-leave-of-absence-after-sample-allegations/2207428/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

Always been a very good rider when his head is straight. Had numerous issues with the drink and taken time out before either by choice or a ban.

He was arguably to blame for the massive pile up at kempton that has left tylicki paralaysed. Whether that has affected him as well I have no idea,

He will be back as he can do the job better than most especially in the low grade events.

Oriental Relation has just won at wolver at 25/1 (37/1 sp) always great for your spirirts getting that email without a penny on.

Fleeting Glimpse runs later at Wolver in a weak maiden

Tracker update

Fleeting Glimpse
Lulu The Rocket
Oriental Relation
Otomo
Swansway
Elusivity

Lulu The Rocket ran well to get 2nd on nursery debut at Newcastle on Friday. Happy with this as shows the tracker entry was justified probably goes up a pound or two but hopefully stays 60 or lower to get into a rubbish nursery around here.

Fleeting Glimpse ran on Saturday night at Wolverhampton and ran on paper poorly in finishing 8/12. However just like when put into notebook at Southwell ran very keen possibly even more so and faded late. Still looks a likely type for a poor maiden at Southwell or even a weak nursery. Stays in for now.

As mentioned Oriental Relation won at 25/1 which was painful, this probably lessens the chance of getting a big price back at Southwell plus it is possible he is not fast enough for the five here anymore. Regardless a tough genuine horse, stays in but whether we get the price I hoped is doubtful.

Entries

Tuesday 13th December

Swansway 3.00 Southwell
Elusivity 2.30 Southwell


Not many races I am interested in tomorrow but the ones I am look promising at this stage. Again having to do this on my mobile so lack of detailed previews will continue.

Have a long rehab session Tuesday and a meeting about stuff so no update until Wednesday earliest.

Unlucky Horsey. I know that feeling, having similar happen with one last week.

All the best with the rehab, and meeting.

Thanks marky

Horse I kept trying to get beat at Southwell high command just been beaten at 1/4 at Southwell

1pt win clubland 9/2 betfair 12.30 5/2 on my tissue

0.5pt win secret glance 3.00 25/1 365/betfair

Clubland very very obvious thrown in on old Southwell form and ran perfectly well last time. A few dangers but this really could be 2s come the start.

Secret glance a lot more chancy, never been here and been in desperate form. However the Rowe yard have picked up of late and this is very well handicapped. Was obviously keen on swansway but I didn't make that any shorter than the 3s

230 still being decided on intriguing race

Might be something on 230 tonight or very early tomorrow otherwise thats the lot

230 elusivity 10/1 1pt win 365

Secret glance into at best 18s and  as short as 12s with coral

Clubland 3s/10/3 and elusivity 7/8s

One more of interest in 230 but think it may drift in morning so will wait

No more bets, red stripes the possible bet is now a non runner

Secret glance heading to single figures fwiw

They knew!

Amazing how accurate market moves are on the AW, especially late ones.

It's almost like somebody knew today wasn't the day for Clubland.

Screaming springers and stoppers
And call out the coppers
But the money still gleams in my hand like a light.

(Shane MacGowan)

Still no word from horsey.

Hope he is OK

Logged into his account 2 days ago.

It's a bit worrying Keith, as I sent him a PM over Christmas asking if he was OK, & he always replies, but I've not heard back.