blonde poker forum

£20 to enter.

Make 2 picks each week of the playoffs (1 in the super bowl obv)

You get 40 points in total over the 4 weeks to move the spreads to your liking.

This week:

Oak +3.5 v Houston -3.5
Det +8.5 v Sea -8.5
Miami +10.5 v Pitt -10.5
Giants +4.5 v GB -4.5

So for example in week 1 you could add 7 points to the Oak spread and take 8 points off the Seattle spread and be on Oak +10.5 and Seattle -0.5. Then you'd have 25 points left to use on the remaining weeks.

One loser and you are out.

If 5 or more want to play, I'll run this.

I'm in obviously.

In

Just so I understand, we are moving the lines to suit our own confidence (or lack of it) in the bookies' lines?

Who wins if it's tied? Most points left?

What happens if more than one player left at the end of the superbowl?  Tie breaker being the person who used the least 'added' points out of the 40 available to stay alive?  Assume it is last man standing idea right?
 
In obviously.

Sounds interesting. It'd be rude not to enter. Can use my prediction league winnings ;)

Yep, we'll go with the player with most points left over after the Superbowl is the winner.

Correct.

Can you 'buy' additional points to the 40 by reducing the start received by a dog or increase the cap given up by a fav if you have a really strong fancy?  ie +10 fav can i take +3 and buy an additional 7 points to use later in the comp?

In

Sounds like a good idea.

Include that in the rules.

PM selections to me by 8pm tomorrow night.

Either send the £20 to The Camel on Stars or I'll PM my bank details.

Sounds like fun, can we get a general list of rules though rather than just adding things to see where we are and I am probably in. 

Ok, full set of rules.

£20 to enter.

Using the lines I put up, each player has 40 extra points to move the lines more to their liking.

Each player must make two selections each week.

If you have one loser, you are out.

You can add points to your total by moving the lines the other way if you wish.

If two or more players remain afterthe Superbowl, the player with the most points left over is the winner.

If the last 2/3 players get knocked out at the same stage, they will split the prize.

All picks must be received by me via PM at least one hour prior to the first game of the weekend kicking off.

I will PM bank details to everyone who wants to play in a few hours time.

Good luck!

If you PM me your bank details, and I'll send the score over this afternoon, Keith.

Just calculating my picks ;D

PM sent.

6 in so far.

Open til 8pm, let's try and make it a bottle to the winner.

£20 sent.

Now back to the pin studying.

Can I sort payment tomorrow? I'll msg you my picks anyway

I'll send for you if needs be, mate.


Guesses sent :)

Got money from Tal, and 2 Nationwide accts, which annoyingly don't show the acct holders name.

I'm guessing Marky Mark and PokerBroker?

Okay.

Can you send me bank details?

No idea what I am doing on NFL, but guessing these are near flips anyway.

Overtime is included?   

One is mine mate.

Overtime is always included yes.

Bank details shipped

Yeah, I'm Nationwide.

Thought I put Marky/NFL as references. Sorry, I must have gotten them the wrong way around.

It never shows on my statement when I get a transfer from Nationwide.

Ah, I see.

Mine ends in 888, anyway.

I just sent on nationwide account as well. 

OK this now closed.

Here are the picks

Marky (paid) Pitt -6.5 (4) NYG +7.5 (3)  33 points remaining
PokerBroker (paid) Det +10.5 (2) Houston -5.5 (+2) 40 points remaining
Doobs (paid) Maimi +14.5 (4) NYG +7.5 (3) 33 points remaining
Tal (paid) Oak +3.5 (0) GB -5.5 (+1) 41 points remaining
Horneris (not paid) Det +10.5 (2) Pitt -6.5 (4) 34 points remaining
arbboy (paid) Pitt -2.5 (eight) Sea -2.5 (6) 26 points remaining
cavey007 (not paid) Det +10.5 (2) Miami +13.5 (3) 35 points remaining
Camel (paid) Pitt -2.5 (eight) GB +3.5 (7) 25 points remaining


£160 to the winner (assuming Brent and cavey cough up).

GL everyone.

I thought if i was one of the first to go Brock would have been my downfall. 

Yeah I didn't think that the Lions would get blown out so badly :(

Down to two in the first week. 

I've definitely been more disappointed to get ironed out :D


He's a baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad man!


Good luck next weekend guys  8)

Rodgers v Brady for the Superbowl would a fitting climax of two great careers.

Just me and arbboy remain.

I'll PM my picks to someone before getting arbboy's selections so it's all above board.

AR is only 32 isn't he?

Brady reckons he has another 5 years in him, too.

Definitely the Superbowl I'm hoping for, that's for sure.

Oh Rodgers is still close to his prime for sure.

But whatever Brady wants, he won't necessarily get.

Look at Favre. Had pretty much a career year in 2009 at Minnesota aged 39/40. But the next year he was close to hopeless.

When a QB goes, he goes fast. And Belichick won't hesitate in moving on from him when Brady shows signs he is nearing the end of the road.

Would just be great for the two greatest QBs of the last 20 years having a shootout for all the cheese one time.

Someone on one of the shows I watch said the same about Favre & Manning last week.

Whatever happens, the crossbar for my 40/1 MVP bet feels even sicker after tonight :D

Thought that falloff season was gonna be this year for Rodgers as was so poor first half of the season, but fk me he has been out of this world good past two months

I came across a great stat. If Rodgers next 72 pass attempts are all interceptions, he'll still have a better QBR lifetime than Brady. I say it a lot but surely he's clear of the field as the best yet.

Great idea for a comp Keith. It would be interesting to discuss strategy for this format after it's finished.

Where did you find this please

Brady's got more rings though.

I do think Rodgers has benefited from a consistently better supporting cast.

Brady has had Gronk for about 5 seasons, and a season of Randy Moss and apart from those, no one to write home about.

Some of the offenses he's played with have been anaemic.

Whereas Rodgers has had Driver, Jennings, Nelson, Finley and Cobb.

I think Rodgers is more exciting to watch, but calling him better than Brady is a stretch.

They are both all time greats.

From watching some of the US debate shows, it has been mooted that Rodgers stats weren't actually that bad, given what he was working with, and he is held to an almost unrealistic level of expectation.

I'm on phone only for next few days so can't post a link. Google will find it. I was dubious, so I looked at maths as I understand it, seems to check out.

This was on FS1 today.

'Derek Carr was in the MVP discussion with a 63% pass completion. Aaron Rodgers completed 63% through the first 10 games, with 25/7, and people were saying he was done'

It would be really interesting to see their teams production on the ground through both of their careers, it seems to me that on the rare occasions when GB have been able to run it, Rodgers has been pretty unstoppable.

I hadn't looked at the stats, just what I watched in the early season. Throws were way of at times and obv he got picked a few times. But like I posted he has been ridic good, past couple of months. My Fav QB to watch and that's with me being a Bears fan..lol

I only get them from watching the debates. First 10 games weren't great, but I think he's just held to a higher standard. Understandable if he's meant to be in the GOAT discussion.

'Derek Carr was in the MVP discussion with a 63% pass completion. Aaron Rodgers completed 63% through the first 10 games, with 25/7, and people were saying he was done. Since then, 6 games & 1 playoff he has 70% 19/0'

Disclaimer: Sharpe thinks Rodgers is the most complete QB ever :D

Lines for this week

SEA +4.5 at ATL -4.5
HOU +15.5 at NE -15.5
PITT +1.5 at KC -1.5
GB +4.5 at DALL -4.5

Arb,

I will PM my picks to Tal (if he doesn't mind), as soon as I've done that, I'll post here that my selections are made and you can post yours here.

GL

Two games again? 

Good luck, chaps!

Yep. You've got 26 points remaining, I've got 25.

Can't believe I missed this - I won the last NFL competition that Keith ran ;)

GL chaps and feel free to PM me for any useful tips.

No problem.

I could do with a giggle.

Happy to help.

Sent my picks to Tal.

GB +14.5
NE -6.5

I've gone for NE -6.5 and ATL -0.5

Just to clarify, if one of us loses both of our picks and the other loses 1, the prize money is split.

Need 2 winners to survive.

Oops. I sent Tal ATL -2.5, so that is my other pick.

Confirmed.

GL Keith.

GL arb.

I like Dallas tonight, not sure if I like them -14.5 though!

I like your spot. Happy to chop it if you want!  Freeroll tonight and then a bunch of points in hand on me to use.  Was getting excited when Seattle should have been 14-0 up!  Folded badly after that.

YBA.

Decided to gamble by only taking a couple of points on Atlanta as they were my strongest bet of the playoffs.

Hopefully can use the extra points to my advantage in the Conference Championships!

Lines for this week

GB +4.5 @ ATL -4.5
PITT +5.5 @ NE -5.5

Arb has 7 points left to use, I have 14.

Again, I'll PM my picks to Tal.

Need two winners to survive or the money is chopped.

GL

Have you PM'd Tal your picks yet (can Tal confirm) before i post my selections for tomorrow?

I've got Camel's picks.

PM system seems to be having a wobble atm but email alert shows me what he has sent.

You're free to post ITT.

Atl -2.5
NE -0.5

All 7 points used for me now.

Good luck gents!

I've got

Atlanta -0.5
New England -0.5

Five points left for the Superbowl.

I am cheering on Pitt then!  Chop is my best result barring miracles!

Atlanta win a squeaker by 1 or 2 points please.

Don't mind that as long as Pitt win by 1 as well!  I so wanted to go against you as i knew you would double the jollies but the lines put up and the key numbers in the NFL just forced me to use my 7 points the way i did!!!!  I had no choice playing perfect strategy.  I couldn't give up points by siding with GB even though i really wanted to.

Really fun game although I went out week one.  I'd be up for this over a longer format next season.

I am slightly biased but I am on Packers this evening both on Money Line and and spread this evening.  #InRodgersWeTrust

Not quite the 1 point squeaker you wanted!!!  What a couple of judges we are!  Wish i had an acca on all these selections at the original spread.  Think i could have taken no points off any of the selections and still be alive with 40 points in tact!

With the line bang on 3 at the moment, I'll wait until the start of next week to set the line we use for the competition here, as it has to be 2.5 or 3.5 to avoid pushes.

If it stays at 3, we'll have to ask someone to randomly choose one or the other.

Interesting tactics whichever of the two lines is picked.

Could just take the -3 market on betfair and whichever one is fav say Monday noon next week is our line.  So -3 odds on then its 3.5, if +3 is odds on then its -2.5 for us.  Up to you.   It is currently bang on a flip.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/american-football/market/1.129306680

Ok, sounds good.

NE -2.5 it is.

Good luck son.  Sure you don't want to chop it?

Have you sent Tal your selection so i can post?

Pick sent to Tal.

Confirmed

NE -5.5 is my pick so i am buying 3 points to have a finishing total of 3 points if it comes to a tie breaker.

NE -2.5 is my pick, so I finish with 5 points.

So if Atlanta win then arb wins with the points?

If Atlanta win, we're all back in next year  ;scarymoment;


Think Keith wins, as he had NE - 2.5, but I never check the rules properly :D

If Atlanta win (or lose by 1 or 2) we chop it.

If NE win by 3 or more, I win.

I have 5 pts remaining, he has 3.

Congrats Camel.  Why didn't you do what i thought you would do and shave off 2 points and take NE straight up then it would have been a tie!

Thanks, I didn't back Atlanta, but I just favoured them.

Moving the line to +7.5 with my 5 points was nearly my play.

But you were virtually forced to pick NE as the line was 2.5 and I thought you'd move it to -6.5, so if I picked Atlanta I could lose. If I picked NE the worst I'd get was a chop..

So, as there isn't much between -2.5 and -0.5, I stuck with -2.5 so I'd still win if you went to -6.5.