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Title: Am I going mad? Post by: The Camel on October 11, 2017, 05:54:13 PM Just had a disagreement with a couple of mates.
Has a 2/1 shot in a race where they are betting to 140 got a better chance of winning than a 2/1 shot in a 110% race? Or have they both got the same chance? Title: Re: Am I going mad? Post by: arbboy on October 11, 2017, 05:58:01 PM If you make both of them 2/1 to 100% then they have the same chance. If you are assessing their chances based on the book margin and the 110/140% is distributed evenly then the 2/1 shot in the 110% book will have more chance of winning.
Title: Re: Am I going mad? Post by: The Camel on October 11, 2017, 06:03:13 PM If you make both of them 2/1 to 100% then they have the same chance. Obviously, we all agree with that. If you are assessing their chances based on the book margin and the 110/140% is distributed evenly then the 2/1 shot in the 110% book will have more chance of winning. The other way around surely? Title: Re: Am I going mad? Post by: Tal on October 11, 2017, 06:04:30 PM Is it a 2/1 shot (in which case it's 33% in both) or is it the bookie's price that's 2/1 (in which case that's irrelevant to its actual chances of winning).
In the latter case, you could say that the bigger overround means the price given gives a greater than true assessment of its chance of winning (or, more accurately, in the bookie's opinion). So, if it's 2/1 on the board in a 140% book, its chances of winning are perceived by the compiler to be less than 33%, and less than the 2/1 shot in a 120% book. But a 2/1 shot that is a true 2/1 shot wins 1 race in 3, whatever the overround. Title: Re: Am I going mad? Post by: arbboy on October 11, 2017, 06:07:20 PM If you make both of them 2/1 to 100% then they have the same chance. Obviously, we all agree with that. If you are assessing their chances based on the book margin and the 110/140% is distributed evenly then the 2/1 shot in the 110% book will have more chance of winning. The other way around surely? No the 2/1 price in a 110% book will be closer to be a 2/1 shot at 100% (probably a 9/4 poke) whereas in the 140% book the 100% price of a 2/1 will probably be a 3/1 shot and less likely to win (25% compared to 30%) Title: Re: Am I going mad? Post by: The Camel on October 11, 2017, 06:16:42 PM Yes. I am going mad.
Age is catching up with me. |