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Evening everyone

Only 10 days till the start of this once great event which is slowly veering into mediocrity :)

However, the first decent betting opportunity is available. With a mixture of the changing viewpoints about dirt racing in the states and the reduction in Lasix use and the understandable reluctance to take on Bob, "Mr. Drug Violation" Baffert on his own patch the entries for all dirt races are at record lows.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-filly-and-mare-sprint/winner

The pre-entries were released earlier and this race only has 7. Maybe 1 or even 2 will drop out but even if they don't the firms still going 3 places are making an error here.

Pre-Entered Horses
Bella Sofia (Rudy Rodriguez)
Ce Ce (Michael McCarthy)
Edgeway (John Sadler)
Estilo Talentoso (Juan Arriagada)
Gamine (Bob Baffert)
Proud Emma (Peter Miller)
Truth Hurts (Chad Summers)

Truth Hurts and Proud Emma will be 50/1 + on the day possibly 100s.

If I had the ability I would be backing Ce Ce at 6/1 each way with the 3 places as it stands with the few firms left.

Will be sticking up any bets I have on here.

Good luck all.

Good stuff John, thanks.

Thanks for this horsey

PS How the hell does Baffert retain his license?

Cheers chaps

Good question that there was talk he would be banned from entering but that would have just led to trainer switches in name only (hardly unique to the states sadly)

A lot of the persistent violation breakers of the last decade have actually gone now certainly at the bigger tracks

Good stuff, and good luck, horsey!

Looking like only 5 in the Filly and Mare sprint and that includes Proud Emma so essentially 4 a very nice spot.

One thing I hope I have learnt over the years is not forcing a bet the week in advance, most of the markets look about right now and it is more important to see any biases on Friday and act accordingly now.

The turf races are most interesting and competitive the shorter priced animals (like Space Blues) look about the right price but the Del Mar turf track is one of the trickiest to "learn" in America for a jockey and suits a horse that can quicken into the very short straight than a grinder. Space Blues isn't a grinder but maybe further back than ideal.

Presume this starts tomorrow.

Good luck, horsey!

Yep, Friday and Saturday cheers Marky...


24 hours ago I said this

"One thing I hope I have learned over the years is not forcing a bet the week in advance, most of the markets look about right now and it is more important to see any biases on Friday and act accordingly now.
"

Ignore the above as here I am with 2 bets for the Friday card :)

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2021-11-05-del-mar/21:50/winner

This is possibly the hardest race across the meeting so why not have an opinion. The front two in the market are both Wes Ward speedballs and history says one won't change tactic for the other, throw in at least 5 other possible speed types and we might have a speed collapse. The problem is this track doesn't do many of those. One who should be midfield but no further back is DERRYNANE 20/1 min, who has a bit to find on the figures been working well by many reports and this quote bodes well

“She's got speed,” said Clement's assistant Christophe Lorieul. “I really like her race at Woodbine. It was on a similar kind of surface and racetrack with tight turns. There was plenty of speed in front of her and she came closing at the end. She ran a very good race that day. I don't know how much she beat, but she looked very good doing it.”

Derrynane and Joel Rosario will start from Post 11 in the 14-horse field.
“For a 2-year-old she is amazing,” Lorieul said. “Wherever you take her, she never leaves any feed and she always acts very mature. That's a plus.”

She basically races like a more experienced filly than she is has already experienced a rough race on the second start and although maybe lacking the class and probably the early speed looks a tad overpriced here.



https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2021-11-06-del-mar/00:30/winner

The second bet is the stronger of the two for me especially at the Hills standout 14/1 on PORTFOLIO COMPANY in the juvenile turf.

Feels a bit scary going against both of Applebys runners especially from plum draws but that is all in the price.

The selection was beaten in a head bob by the original favourite for this which in itself makes the 14s wrong (i think the sp will be around 6s/8s) The draw in 10 is hardly ideal but he has the early pace to get a fair position at worst.

He has the highest speed figure in the race with a couple of the main speed figure providers in the states there isn't a lot to not like especially at double figures.

Nearly showtime

Quick race by race rundown of tonight plus some more bets I may have later price dependent.

9.50 Juvenile Turf Sprint

Already on Derrynane not much else to add if Run Curtis Run drifts to 60s+ on the machine nearer the race will have a small win only in that direction.

10.30 Juvenile Fillies

Have come round to JUJU'S MAP here as the week has gone on especially the biggest price of the 3 who can win this. Asmussen who trains the favourite has had an awful month which may or may not continue but is a small negative even not allowing for that Juju's has almost done as much as the fav and is proven over 2 turns. Hidden Connection has had 2 wins on the snaff and could be anything but has plenty to find on the numbers. I would have Juju closer to 7/4 2/1 here.  3/1 is a good bet.


11.10  Juvenile Fillies Turf

Betting like a handicap this and any of these winning would be no surprise. Haughty is probably the one with the biggest future of these but has enough to prove at sub 8/1. Cachet is the battle-hardened type who could thrive here she has the plum draw in 3 should have enough pace to be in pole position what I really like is Boughey has booked American jockey Luis Suaez who is a rare case of being a better turf jock than dirt in America, he is mega aggressive on the turf usually which is the only way Cachet can win this. I think she will drift a bit might even get 20s+ later. A small view.

11.50 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Race lost a lot of its shine with the late withdrawal of Jack Christopher he had a big chance of getting the front with Corniche being in 13. However now even though some other connections should adjust and perhaps send a rag forward even from 13 Corniche will lead these. The 9/4 with Hills is a bit of a standout and is small value. At any price, American Sanctuary might not finish last as prices suggest with respect to Sophie Doyle who has done really well and earned a lot of money since moving Stateside a decade ago a jockey switch to Geroux is worth a few lbs. He could have beaten Double Thunder with a better trip and that one is 25s. Can he win probably not but might be one for the underneath of forecasts/tricasts e.t.c.


12.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

We have a nice position on Portfolio Company here who is still a small bet at current prices nothing else to add here just hope I stay awake for this one.


Good luck all

Worth noting that these will be covered live on ITV4.

Good luck, punterers!

Will try and remember to fire into them.

Best of luck John and to all players including yours puntery truly  ;sexybanana;

Early signs on the turf say that inside is much the best but small sample

Doesn't bode well for Derrynane or Run Curtis Run but there we go

Derrynane runs a corker and was the moral winner but you don't get paid on that

Fantastic training performance by David Loughnane with Go Bears Go in 2nd

Certainly flying at the end. PP paid 4 places so all good.

Can't fault the ride you saw with some of the other high draws who tried to chase that early pace who were beaten after 100 yards way it goes

The market says I am wrong in the next with Juju's Map fairly weak

Have had a top-up at 9/2 on the machine

Nice bit of EW profit to get us started, well done John.

Thanks Tikay

No chance with those fractions on the lead she got 2nd which doesn't help anybody winner and favourite much the best

Wow, the winner really hacked up there.

Yep any stamina doubts were dismayed after the first quarter but it is doubtful it would have mattered

Cachet looks like being bigger on the US TOTE which you can play into on betfair and a few firms still offer (I think)

min stakes stuff this race is really really tricky

Absolute textbook ride from Suez thought we may have nicked it there alas not

Some decent EW money there I think?

Yep, 4th if you played that way !

In a different way just as frustrating as the first I thought we could get the lead but you could not have asked for a better trip and arguably should have won from that position

Nothing in the next can we stay awake for the last? 5/4 Yes at the moment (max stake £2.50)

Anybody backed anything here?

On Pinehurst 9/1 ew pre rule4 for small stakes and a dabble on yours in the last @17.5

Good luck Ralph

Draw not an issue when you have that early pace

Impressive win

https://twitter.com/i/status/1456764532110635009


Brilliant jockey cam footage this

Weave me up!

Let's hope that unfortunate stalls handler doesn't get lumbered with a massive medical bill as per usual in the USA

Horrible incident surprised a couple of the others including the well-fancied Dakota Gold have not been withdrawn sure it got struck into

Did they just say Modern Games will run but will not be in the betting?

Modern Games scratched and taken out of the market on the US Tote he is still running but not for betting purposes

Confused yep

Still out over here as well when they jump, what a mess

This one is going to be a mess for the firms to sort out

Lordy, the bookies CC staff are in for a trying night...

Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Tiz the Bomb wins for coming 2nd

All sorts of implications as win were markets everywhere for number of euro "winners" tonight for example

Ha, was only half watching that and was massively confused as to why he was still running and why he was also shown as scratched.   Very impressive tho.

Just watched it back and that was impressive.

Great shout with yours, horsey.

I gather that Sky (& I guess most others) paid out on both "winners" in that race.

A very odd situation.

3 placed on my e/w lucky 15. Thanks Horse.

Np Alan crossbar day here but pretty happy with how they nearly all went.

The day was probably summed up by a tweet congratulating Bob Baffert from a course where he is banned from having runners for 2 years. Watching back Corniche ran you wouldn't bet odds on there wasn't some help the fractions she went..... The odious Matt Chapman continues to put up Baffert as some kind of god figure weird at best.

The aftermath of the last continues lots of slips from the states with pick 4's and 6's where they had winning tickets onto the "winner" and actually ended up on Dakota Gold who not only did they not select was struck into pre-race and almost certainly lame before and during the race, a real mess and although we have had all bad beats in this game that would be hard to top.

The excellent Andy Serling summed it up well just now with this tweet.

Andy Serling
@andyserling
With the benefit of a little sleep and a little hindsight, here's the bottom line as I see it....there are two stakeholders in this game, bettors, and owners, and we have to do the best possible job of protecting both, and never one at the expense of another.


Thought the track was racing fair hard to be sure about any dirt bias as the fancied winners from the front were not pressured early at all, the turf looked very fair with only the very dreamest of runs allowing deep closers as expected (see jockey cam tweet) The turf horses that got relatively easy leads were not particularly fancied so being handy is still preferred for me.

Will post thoughts for tonight in a few hours.

I do think that the two Charlie Appleby horses being grouped together as an "entry"(usually 1&1a on the racecard) for tote betting purposes contributed to the subsequent fiasco after one of them was scratched.

7.05 Filly and Mare Sprint

No view here now hopefully some have the 3 places ante-post.


7.40 Turf Sprint

Golden Pal was 6/4 for this 2 weeks ago and now might hit 4/1 seen a few people reference the York run that is irrelevant here really the current price is at the worst fair. Lieutenant Dan looks solid and should have the ideal position here 2 or 3 back. Kimari has been away for ages but that is a plus for Wes Ward not a worry, at a bigger price Charmaines Mia might go well has been changed to a miler by connections after being a very good sprinter she doesn't really stay but isn't miles behind these back to her correct trip. Not a strong view here don't think it is a good betting race really even with 4 places plenty of depth.

8.19 Dirt Mile

Now, this is a better betting shape. Life Is Good has never not had the lead in a race, on paper gets challenged here the Japanese outsider Jasper Prince led the 6-furlong race here last year I can't see what other way they can race that one even though it has no chance of staying it can still influence the race. The obvious play either each way if the eight stand or win only is SILVER STATE 4/1 + solid horse races handy enough but doesn't need the lead however the race is run should be finishing well.


8.59 Filly and Mare Turf

This is a good race but a very hard one to read. The euros are definitely a class above Love is fresh and Audarya and Rougir should finish well-matched on the linked form. The big issue is there is zero pace bar one horse is GOING TO VEGAS a local horse still improving slightly stays well, in a lower grade race you might think someone will change tactics and go for the lead but that seems unlikely here. On form the current 20/1 is if anything a bit  tight but 25s+ later will be a win-only bet for me.


9.38  Breeders' Cup Sprint

No view at all here the favourite looks about the right price and is solid but there are plenty of talented runners
at their best all the way down, good race.


10.20 Breeders' Cup Mile

Have no doubt Space Blues has the least questions to answer in here he does however have to prove the mile is ok which I am sure it will be he might be a tad far back if held up to get the trip. Bit annoyed with myself I didn't chance Master of The Seas a few days at bigger prices as on his early-season form he could win not really an each-way play though.

With the 5 places with plenty, SMOOTHLIKESTRAIT is fine at 12/1+ very consistent always runs the same figures good draw a little soft in a finish at times and might lack the class to win each way for me.


11.00 Distaff


Lots of pace in here lots of in-form runners a few still improving the Hills 4 places probably makes it a betting race if you can with them Royal Flag would be my token pick but I would just go whichever they were most competitive on.


11.40 Breeders' Cup Turf

Corking race and Tarnawa rightful fav defending here crown. WALTON STREET for me at 9/1+ whose Dubai form looks a lot better than it did with the Arc Winner in behind he then bolted up in a grade 1 at Woodbine albeit a weak one looks a bit underestimated here.


00.40 Breeders' Cup Classic

The traditional hour gap and being honest we will be asleep by now (hopefully). A great race in prospect though so enjoy it if you are awake.


Couple of no interest races there but the rest of the card is difficult if you do get it right tonight fancy you get paid well, good luck all.

Oi oi

n1 horsey good to have you back

Not a penny on here :) But never mind


Charmaines Mia getting 3rd was nice

Early in the night for a key race but Silver State getting in the 3 pretty important now for me with regard to some multis

Yuk

That was impressive

Reluctantly leaving Going To Vegas bar a late drift

Corking ride on the Japanese horse there from a jockey I am not familiar with

Would have been nice to get a price on Going To Vegas leading the first time nothing like good enough

This is great Saturday night viewing to go along with your race previews, horsey. Thanks very much for your efforts.
Enjoying the ITV coverage too (no sign of the oaf Chapman)
Now it would be nice to cheer a winner past the post

^^^^ this

Thanks, chaps

The winner is the hard part as you could probably tell I wasn't that keen on anything tonight bar Silver State who upon watching the replay almost looked to have gone wrong very early on (normally a fluid mover very scratchy)

Still early

here we go again

Thought we might hang on there but a good solid run

Yep, but still a winning bet, so thanks for that

ditto

Don't think Space Blues was anything like his best nobody thought he would get that perfect trip and took a little while to do the job but showed the horse hs is late on

Now that was a proper race and a proper burn-up

Royal Flag went 2s on in running but was drawn into too soon for a sustained challenge

Walton Street never looked comfy there


That will do me chaps.

Thanks for the support I enjoyed it.

So did we John, a very enjoyable couple of evenings thanks to you.

Great thread, horsey.

Had family over tonight, but hope you all made some dough!