Betfred going 8 places from 10am-6pm today all channels, they will probably slash all their prices just before but they havent as of yet. If they dont Gmac @ 25/1 with 8 places is very hard to resist.

I'm generally loathed to follow these weather forecasts as they are often proved wrong, but there is a strong suggestion that you probably want a late/early draw by the looks of things. 10mph stronger breeze on both days for those drawn on the other half.

http://www.myweather2.com/activity/forecast.aspx?loc=Five%20Day%20Weather%20Forecast%20for%20Muirfield&rt=plugin&id=141385&sday=1
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?hourly=1&query=zmw:00000.5.03174&yday=198&weekday=Thursday

On that basis, Gmac is main selection with darts thrown at Danny Willett, Marcus Fraser, Thongchai Jaidee, Ryan Moore, Stephen Gallacher and Harris English.

Good luck all.

[Loss on Month -£38.68]

Daily Report

Loss on Month -£38.68

Outstanding Bets £1309.50

Overall Profit £1123.79 ROI 2.08%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=24

Yesterday we won just over £100 with three winning bets and a sole loser

In an excellent Golf day Fellaini85's bets were both winners, Lee beat Karlberg by five shots - +£50 and McDowell won at the Matchplay 5 and 3 - +£40

Grasshoppers beat Sion 4-0 away for Maldini32 to record a £34.50 win at 23/20

In the sole loser Kvitova failed to overcome her androgenous opponent and the Milkman found his Gold top curdled for the day - £24

Looking at other bets the Claypole's Calypso Golf bet, Henriques at 250-1 is in the top 20 at -1 after a round, seven shots off the lead.

An Aidan O'Brien horse lost a Derby trial, to a 33-1 shot leaving only four A O'B raiders in the hunt to try and topple Dawn Approach and sink Chompy's bet

In the cricket (stat alert) yesterday's Test action was to the IPL as the IPL is to financial propriety.

160-4 off 80 overs included 421 dot balls. Since Cricinfo started recording (stat alert) the data in 2001 this is the most dot balls England have played in any Test Innngs of 80 overs and the second highest number of dot balls of any country over 80 overs in a Test Innings in that same period

Attritional might be one word for it, boring might be another. It was a dig in day. Optimistic about the Swann bet on this pitch

In County Cricket Middlesex are all over Somerset like a rash. Taking 15 Somerset wickets yesterday, forcing the follow on and warm favourites to record another win

Northants got 4 batting points but weather is likely to stop them recording another win this time against the weakest county of the lot Leicestershire. Encouraging stuff though, and we are well in the hunt.

Cricket aside, our main interests today are Golf related. Henriques as mentioned above and Milkman has us on McDowell for the Bulgarian Bounty at 17/2.

Just a point Mr Tightend, the Craig Lee bet was a tournament matchbet, not an 18 hole one. So while a decent start, is still a open bet.

Although not as good as the Jacquelin v Jimenez match bet from a few weeks ago, I think there is a decent match bet opportunity in the Madeira Island Open Golf tournament commencing tomorrow morning. Rikard Karlberg has stated on his blog(http://rikardgolf.com/) that he is playing with an injured left shoulder, he only hit some balls yesterday after not being able to since last Wednesday. He mentioned he struggled to control the height of his shots, and considering this is due to be a windy tournament, not being able to fully turn through shots is likely to lead to a poor performance.

Ladbrokes have placed him in a match bet with Craig Lee @ 10/11, Craig Lee is no superstar but has a top 10 this year and a couple of top 20s in much better class events. He is a fairly consistent golfer, who should be used to playing in the wind. His past form here isnt great, but at least hes played this course the last two years, whereas Karlberg hasnt played it since 2007(when he shot +11) . They are both due to play in the afternoon, so they should face the same weather.

I think this is probably worth £55 @ 10/11 Craig Lee to beat Rikard Karlberg with Ladbrokes.

I have doubled this up with McDowell to beat Chris Wood in his match in the group stage of the matchplay, Ladbrokes are joint best at 4/5 and although traditionally a lottery(and I dont normally get involved), I think there are plenty of reasons to think this is a decent price.
1/ Wood hasnt played competitively for 8 weeks after a niggly injury,...he thinks his game is in solid shape, but he has to be rusty.
2/ Wood had a nightmare 16 hour journey to get to Bulgaria from Bristol! http://chriswoodgolf.net/golf-players-blog-detail/id/502.html He had only played 3 holes at the time of writing.
3/ McDowell travelled by private jet from the players championship, is an excellent match player, and has stated his "game is in very good shape" as shown by his win a cpl of weeks ago. The course is nicknamed the pebble beach of Europe, and pebble beach was where McDowell won his major.

I will leave it the thread to decide whether to include the 2nd selection with the first.

What are peoples thoughts on McIlroy to miss the cut at 9/2 with Stans(under their website as to play in the 3rd rd), i know his game seems in decent shape but he has missed all three cuts here and has been clear about his dislike for the place: " "It's a Pete Dye course and I find it very awkward off the tee." "You're hitting across fairways all the time. It creates angles and visually it's very tough off the tee,” he explained. "He makes you feel uncomfortable because it looks like you've only got a little bit of fairway to hit, but actually once you get up there it's a little bit wider."

He hasnt broken 72 in 6 attempts, and the cynic in me thinks he has a few weeks off before Wentworth and would be quite keen to get over to Madrid and see Wozniacki, who lost her 1st rd match a few days ago. I think 9/2 is probably too big.

For those that can get on. Stan James paying 7 places 1/4 on the TPC this week. Top price on Horschel and Westy which I have backed for interest due to recent form. Seem to be top price on a few others I cross checked too

they've only got 6 on their website?  Was ths a limited time thing?

7 places is available only when betting through their mobile site. Decent offer.

Not sure if this has been discussed yet but Ladbrokes have an offer on the 2000 Guineas tomorrow. If 15/8 fav Dawn Approach wins they will refund all bets as free bets upto the value of £25. Its available to all customers, but only on the first bet you place on this race(e.g. you cant back all the runners). T+Cs are on their website, but all seem fair enough.

They are 2/1 Toronado, currently 3.05 on betfair. Ive havent done the maths on this but reckon this is a fairly solid selection. Front page of the racing post, shows Hughes stating it could be the best its ever ridden and that he expects to win. I actually wouldnt be suprised to see if go off fav.

So I think £25 on Toronado at 2/1 to win the 2000 Guineas(3.50 Newmarket) is a fair investment with Laddies.

Thank you very much Everton Bloke. You must be very pleased with Mr Moyes & Co once again?

Will look at that 2000 Guineas freebie later this evening.

Another solid season again, but would be nice to turn over the enemy on Sunday, cant see it happening tho.

Wasnt best pleased about Jacquelin winning that golf tournament when we were only him for in a matchbet,....best not to be greedy tho.

Not sure if this has been discussed yet but Ladbrokes have an offer on the 2000 Guineas tomorrow. If 15/8 fav Dawn Approach wins they will refund all bets as free bets upto the value of £25. Its available to all customers, but only on the first bet you place on this race(e.g. you cant back all the runners). T+Cs are on their website, but all seem fair enough.

They are 2/1 Toronado, currently 3.05 on betfair. Ive havent done the maths on this but reckon this is a fairly solid selection. Front page of the racing post, shows Hughes stating it could be the best its ever ridden and that he expects to win. I actually wouldnt be suprised to see if go off fav.

So I think £25 on Toronado at 2/1 to win the 2000 Guineas(3.50 Newmarket) is a fair investment with Laddies.

Golf - Open De Espana

I was looking to oppose Miguel Angel Jimenez in this tournament, as for those who dont know, Miguel broke his leg at the end of December(http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/20872268) and this is is his first tournament back since. He actually only confirmed his participation in this event last week and stated he has played rounds of golf but almost all of them has been using a buggy. He played a pro am event on Sunday, and walked some of the course and used a buggy for the rest. He has stated he is not 100% and merely stated he aims to make the cut. Its no surprise he has drifted from 55.0 to 75.0.

I suspect he is rushing back too early and is only playing here due to this being the only Spanish tournament on the european tour schedule this year, as opposed to the 7 it hosted in 2010. All of the Spanish players are attending, and contending is probably at the back of his mind. He clearly loves the course, and knows it well but its due to be a windy tournament and is certainly not one to be taken on with a rushed preparation. Corals have placed him in a tournament match bet with Raphael Jacquelin @ 10/11. Excellent golf tipster SportsBettingIndex has tipped Jacquelin up to win the tournament, and makes a good case stating that he has played this venue a few times himself and has a "great long term record in Spain". He has made 5 out of 6 cuts this year, 17/25 last, and played fine in a warm up event in France last week, finishing mid pack and closing with the joint 2nd best closing round. All in all, hes a very solid/dependable player, whos good in the wind and likely to play well and make the cut. Making the cut, will actually probably be enough to win the bet.

There are a few different players(E.Molinari and A.Quiros) we could oppose Jimenez with, but both of those have been out with injuries and are a little unpredictable. So I think Jacquelin to beat Jimenez with Coral in their tournament match bet deserves a decent investment. Maybe around £55

I happy to hear any alternative views.

Hi Fellaini,

Well done last night, good point that.....


I don't know enough about golf to know what is what, but you have painted an amazing picture there, & at face value, it looks a terrific bet.

We are on, exactly as suggested.  Am doing my bedding plants right now, so details to follow later.

Thanks.

Aye, it was a decent performance and probably just about a deserved point.

For those interested as well, Francesco Molinari tweeted that he withdrew from the pro am today due to a back problem which surfaced on Saturday at the Masters. He also revealed on European Tour Weekly on sky, that he hasnt hit a ball in since the Masters, you can get 10/11 Fernandez-Castano or Manassero against him with a few firms. That wouldnt be the worst bet in the world, but Im happy with the Jacquelin one. Beware the injured golfer, mind you.

Golf - Open De Espana

I was looking to oppose Miguel Angel Jimenez in this tournament, as for those who dont know, Miguel broke his leg at the end of December(http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/20872268) and this is is his first tournament back since. He actually only confirmed his participation in this event last week and stated he has played rounds of golf but almost all of them has been using a buggy. He played a pro am event on Sunday, and walked some of the course and used a buggy for the rest. He has stated he is not 100% and merely stated he aims to make the cut. Its no surprise he has drifted from 55.0 to 75.0.

I suspect he is rushing back too early and is only playing here due to this being the only Spanish tournament on the european tour schedule this year, as opposed to the 7 it hosted in 2010. All of the Spanish players are attending, and contending is probably at the back of his mind. He clearly loves the course, and knows it well but its due to be a windy tournament and is certainly not one to be taken on with a rushed preparation. Corals have placed him in a tournament match bet with Raphael Jacquelin @ 10/11. Excellent golf tipster SportsBettingIndex has tipped Jacquelin up to win the tournament, and makes a good case stating that he has played this venue a few times himself and has a "great long term record in Spain". He has made 5 out of 6 cuts this year, 17/25 last, and played fine in a warm up event in France last week, finishing mid pack and closing with the joint 2nd best closing round. All in all, hes a very solid/dependable player, whos good in the wind and likely to play well and make the cut. Making the cut, will actually probably be enough to win the bet.

There are a few different players(E.Molinari and A.Quiros) we could oppose Jimenez with, but both of those have been out with injuries and are a little unpredictable. So I think Jacquelin to beat Jimenez with Coral in their tournament match bet deserves a decent investment. Maybe around £55

I happy to hear any alternative views.

I'd be very surprised if Hills's priority price isnt Tiger to win the masters, so altho you wont be able to get much on and wont be able to take advantage of the generous ew terms. I would imagine they will go at least 5/1 for a short time period.

I seem to remember them going 9/1 Rory last year, when he was a general 11/2 chance and that was before the "priority prices" campaign was launched.

[20/1]

I see Betfred are offering 25/1 on MTOY, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly and Quevega all winning. This is of no interest to me, but they are offering 20/1 on all of them to get beat. I maybe looking at this wrong but at the current betfair prices, an acca on them all to win would be 28/1 and all to get beat is 11/1. This offer is available on the web under day 1 acca till 11am. I think this is worth bet even if its only a fiver.My amateur workings out;

MTOY not win (1.5)* Simonsig not to win (2.37) * Hurricane Fly not to win (1.42) * Quevega not to win *(2.42)  = 12.21 = 11/1






      

I think this may have been missed today, but it appears the thread has another winner....As our friends at Paddy Power have decided to payout early on Obama winning the presidential election. I believe the bet was placed with them, so congrats to Mr Tikay for pulling the trigger....

http://blog.paddypower.com/2012/11/04/paddy-power-pays-out-400000-on-obama-victory-in-u-s-presidential-election/

Should prob add i don't think we will see a price as big as 8/15 again.

Do you really think he might be a 1/5 shot, subject to that caveat?

 
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

I'm no politics expert, but it seems the drift on Obama(2/5 to 8/15) over the past 24 hrs was due to an "major" announcement to be made by Donald Trump today about Obama. This seemed to spook the market as rumours circulated this could be releasing details about marital problems, or something similarly negative.

But it turns out he will just give $5 million dollars if Obama releases his high school records http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-fails-drop-bombshell-offers-cash-obama/story?id=17553670#.UIgrdcXomf5

So essentially it was a complete non-announcement and was met was with widespread ridicule. The price of 8/15 probably should revert back to the 4/9 at some point.

Some interesting odds flying around for to score a hat trick for England v San Marino on Friday. I know there are doubts about who will play, and if they will play the whole match? Especially with Poland away on Tuesday.

Rooneys price ranges from 6/4 to 7/1, it looks as though Stan James have just used a chart to generate their price. But I dont think these charts work for matches invloving San Marino.

Would be interested to hear the thoughts of others?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/to-score-a-hat-trick

Anyone feel this move for Everton has gone too far now?

yes

I have to agree, whilst I expect a victory tonight, 1.62 seems very short. Newcastle clearly have a lot of injuries, but we are also missing an important player in Gibson,whose been excellent since he joined and fits the system very well. Neville will most likely return to centre mid, but doesn't have the composure or passing ability of Gibson, so thats definitely a negative.

With all the value been sucked out of the Everton price, ppl looking for a bet could do a lot worse than take a look at Boylesports new anytime assist market.

They are 9/2 about a Leighton Baines anytime assist, he has 33 assists in the last four seasons(139 games), which is 23%....Im no expert, but I think this makes it close to a bet.

But there maybe reasons to think his chances of gaining an assist maybe slightly better than normal due to two factors:

1/ Newcastle are missing their usual right back in Simpson, so this may mean Perch or possibly Anita play there. So this should allow him to attack a defender, who is clearly not first choice.
2/ Gibson usually takes all the corners from one side(baines the other), but with him out injured either him(or possibly osman) will take them.

So in short, he is our best attacking outlet who will take all free kicks, most of the corners and will be looked upon to get forward as much as possible. The market expects us to win, and Ive noted the over 2.5 market has been well backed.