Does anyone else have any opinion on who will will the actual trophy itself? Theres lots of ideas about who is going to be top goal scorer etc but is there no opinions about who is going to win it, bar the mention for Belgiuim, which I would say aint worth following at its current price which looks too short at 16-1, but they were worth a bet quite some time ago at 100-1.
Basically, in my opinion, the World cup is typically won by 4 teams, Brazil, Germany, Italy and Argentina. There are exceptions to this, typically when some teams win it when they are the host nation, Uruguay 1930s, England 1966 and France 1998. the only other exception to this would be Spain, when the tournament was held in South Africa in 2010. Brazil are the hosts which rules out an oddity happening, will be interesting to see what happens in Qatar.
Obviously there the geographical factor, which can or cannot be discounted depending on your view. in South America the tournament has always been won by a South American team which would leave you with two from the mentioned above four, Brazil or Argentina. The sample size is small granted, but i would suggest it is certainly more beneficial for those teams such as Brazil or Argentina rather than a hinderance. The players are more likely to feel at home, than say italy Spain or Germany for that matter.
With Spain and Germany in horrific groups, and Italy not being the force they normally are, it would leave us with the top two in the betting which is no great surprise.
It is very rare for the Worlds best player, who plays for the big four, so to speak, to not win the World cup. i would suggest that Lionel Messi, as he is peaking at 26 I believe has an amazing chance to lead his country to victory in six weeks time. the only exception to this is Zico who never won it, but that is subject to personal opinion.
People can talk about Cristian Ronaldo being currently worlds best, but I couldnt even name one other team member, and they wouldnt even be a bet for the Euros, never mind a World cup
Quite whether a young Neymar will be able to cope with the pressure placed on his shoulders like Ronaldo in 1998 when he had a fit, remains to be seen, and I imagine, a World Cup win is too soon for the young man.
Also with the various problems Brazil are facing economically and socially, that cannot benefit the teams morale, with so many protests going on, it surely is a burden that they could do without.
Argentina, whos balance appears much better than 4 years ago, having breezed through qualification, with toxic Tevez effectively removed from the squad after the Man City substitute debacle, so the team revolves around Messi alone, are surely the bet at a best priced 9-2. the group win is surely a cert and a final against Brazil is a good probability
Di maria is very impressive, and with Higuian, and Aguero up front, with Messi pulling strings in midfield, they have without question the best attacking line up, instantly putting others on the back foot. They have beaten Germany Italy and Sweden away in friendlies over the last couple of years too.
The current manager, unlike Maradona, is a much quieter man, and less of a hinderance shall we say.
In short I feel it is Argentinas year, and the 9/2 is a good bet, having come in from 6-1 that was available 3 years ago when i first started backing them.
Watch this, and say to me he isnt destined to win one World Cup. This is his best chance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJdlMBrX1-8Thoughts welcome.
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on betfair if I fancied?! Anyway, the fact is that in my opinion, the 2/1 is probably not very wrong given the relative strength of the team being put out. You mention the points points differential between the two teams but those are points accumulated by a completely different, higher class, more experienced set of players. As such, I don't feel it is value. If you or others disagree and feel like it is because it's a Man Utd team at home at 2/1 in the PL then fair enough. 