One I quite like the look of...

Bahrain-Merida to win the TdF team classification at 12/1 with BetUnfair.

Now that Nibali's out, the team don't have much else to go for besides stage wins. Which means that their riders will be gunning for the breakaways most days next week.

At the moment Movistar are leading the team standings with Bahrain-Merida at 10:16, Sky at 19:40 and LottoNL-Jumbo at 29:18. Movistar have nothing to gain by being in the breakaways, and will be keeping men back to try move Landa and Quintana up in the GC. Sky have even less reason to have men up ahead. Looking at the stages to come, they all seem to suit breakaways, except for the short, punchy Stage 17 which shouldn't produce huge time gaps.

Bahrain-Merida are half decent at TT's as well, so shouldn't lose much time to Movistar on Stage 20 either.

And there's the fact that after what happened to Nibali, I don't think that any of the other teams would begrudge Bahrain-Merida winning the team classification.

Recommend £40 Bahrain-Merida to win Team Classification at 12/1.

Bad news, but Tsgabu Grmay didn't come anywhere in yesterday's crucial stage of the Tour Down Under. In fact, Lampre, as a whole, disappointed. Unless the peloton get attacked by a pack of marauding kangaroos, we're going to have to put this one down as a loss.

Welcome to the cycling club, Tommy. Hopefully we can turn our collective knowledge into some hard cash this year.

Not the best of days for our cycling bet. Grmay didn't lose any major time, but it would seem that his team leader, Ulissi, is in good shape, picking up 6 bonus seconds. Another pre-race favourite, Rohan Dennis, also managed to pick up a time bonus. Tomorrow sees the first proper climbing stage of the TDU with multiple ascents of the Corkscrew. Fingers crossed. BTW, Jay McCarthy of Tinkoff-Saxo won the stage in a sprint. He must have been about 200/1 at the off, so long-shots do happen in cycling. Apparently, Stage 2 had been a goal of his. Would have been nice to know.

https://youtu.be/Nz0GEwTmQ-k

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but doesn't Fred have a policy of unloading the clip when Carlisle plays midweek matches in the South?

not a policy

i mentioned it ahead of a trip to plymouth where i saw the team was doing it on a coach trip, there and back in a day. carlisle lost 4-0 but we didn't back it

the next time, maybe the week after, they won on a trip to the south east

where are they tonight?

carlisle have been playing home games at blackpool and preston since the floods so i expect a lot of this travelling/disruption si water off a ducks back(no pun intended) these days

They're playing Yeovil tonight in an FA Cup 3rd round replay. But just did some research, and apparently they've stayed down South after playing Barnet on the weekend. My bad.

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but doesn't Fred have a policy of unloading the clip when Carlisle plays midweek matches in the South?

In the cycling, Caleb Ewan won an impressive bunch sprint, and our boy, Grmay, finished safely in the pack. On the plus side, none of the favourites picked up any time bonuses ... on the down side, Grmay did a lot of work in the peloton for Lampre. Tomorrow's hilly parcours should thin out the field a touch.

https://youtu.be/pIK2tFZzp-4

[Tsgabu Grmay]

Aaaah... at long last cycling is back on the menu. The Tour Down Under starts tomorrow, and although there isn't much value to be had (Simon Gerrans to win outright @ 7/2 and Caleb Ewan to win Stage 1 @ Evens are about right price-wise), there is one banzai bet that I'm pretty sweet on.

Tsgabu Grmay is a young Ethiopian who rides for Lampre-Merida. He came 11th overall in last year's edition of the race, and has been training at altitude back home over our Winter. On paper, he'll be riding for team leaders Diego Ulissi and Louis Meintjies, but I'm thinking Lampre might be holding something back. I'm not yet sold on a drug-free Ulissi, and Meintjies seems to have had a relaxed Winter (possibly holding back for the Tour de France which he is aiming for). Meintjies has also said in an interview that Grmay is in top nick, and that the TDU is a big goal for the youngster (he might not get another chance to shine what with Ulissi, Meintjies and Costa sharing the captaincy). Curiously, Grmay has also been absent from all of Lampre's training/promo videos and pics. Are they keeping their dark horse under wraps?

300/1 at BetUnfair SportsBok is a big enough price for me to flick in a small each-way bet. I suggest £5 e/w for Fred.

oioi, welcome back Wetty, & HNY to you.

Hi cws,

love the banzais, keep em coming. Was going to watch, but on here at 2am. Please post a link of any highlights you see, ty.

Good to be back, teeks. Would be great to get the new year started with a banzai boom. Tonji, I'll try my best to do daily updates, and will post up links when I see them. Good luck to us.

[Tsgabu Grmay]

Aaaah... at long last cycling is back on the menu. The Tour Down Under starts tomorrow, and although there isn't much value to be had (Simon Gerrans to win outright @ 7/2 and Caleb Ewan to win Stage 1 @ Evens are about right price-wise), there is one banzai bet that I'm pretty sweet on.

Tsgabu Grmay is a young Ethiopian who rides for Lampre-Merida. He came 11th overall in last year's edition of the race, and has been training at altitude back home over our Winter. On paper, he'll be riding for team leaders Diego Ulissi and Louis Meintjies, but I'm thinking Lampre might be holding something back. I'm not yet sold on a drug-free Ulissi, and Meintjies seems to have had a relaxed Winter (possibly holding back for the Tour de France which he is aiming for). Meintjies has also said in an interview that Grmay is in top nick, and that the TDU is a big goal for the youngster (he might not get another chance to shine what with Ulissi, Meintjies and Costa sharing the captaincy). Curiously, Grmay has also been absent from all of Lampre's training/promo videos and pics. Are they keeping their dark horse under wraps?

300/1 at BetUnfair SportsBok is a big enough price for me to flick in a small each-way bet. I suggest £5 e/w for Fred.

David Johnson anytime anyone?

Thanks Tal. Great spot. I always look forward to your NFL tips.

So much of a lottery that I haven't really bothered this year, aside from a cheeky bet on Jempy Drucker. I do recall that Nacer Bouhanni once said that he prefers riding in the rain... Good luck, Tonji.

Absolutely cracking day of competitive cycle racing at the Vuelta today. The final 4kms were a brutal slugfest up a wall, with the lead changing constantly. I highly recommend watching the highlights on ITV4 at 19:00. Best day's 10 minutes of cycling I've seen in ages.

You do know it's Friday today, Tal? Quickly updated

I was expecting a much better performance from Brandle, but even so, I'm guessing he won't be 100/1 tomorrow morning. The sweat is still on, but Kelderman, Boom and van Avermaet are looking like the top 3.

He's actually 250/1 in one place (miles out of line with the others). Going back in?

Should be 1000/1 after today's performance. Brandle now outside top 10 and about 30sec behind 3rd place. gg

[5. Matthias Brändle +0.11]

Pretty mixed bag in the cycling today. The TT stage finished like this:

Top 10
1. Jos van Emden 16.34
2. Wilco Kelderman +0.05
3. Adriano Malori +0.07
4. Lars Boom +0.07
5. Matthias Brändle +0.11
6. Greg Van Avermaet +0.14
7. Manuel Quinziato +0.16
8. Philippe Gilbert +0.20
9. Michael Hepburn +0.21
10. Michael Rogers

Which means the GC looks like this:
1. Jos van Emden 12.30.09
2. Wilco Kelderman +0.05
3. Adriano Malori +0.07
4. Lars Boom
5. Matthias Brändle +0.11
6. Greg Van Avermaet +0.14
7. Manuel Quinziato +0.16
8. Philippe Gilbert +0.18
9. Michael Hepburn +0.21
10. Michael Rogers

I was expecting a much better performance from Brandle, but even so, I'm guessing he won't be 100/1 tomorrow morning. The sweat is still on, but Kelderman, Boom and van Avermaet are looking like the top 3.