Morning all. Sorry about the Copeland La our bet. In the end the Tories won relatively easily although Labour did go odds on briefly when Dimbleby crashed the market by saying Labour had won.live on Question Time!
In the end Corbyn was just too unpopular.Hope.you all followed Arbboy and Tight Ends bet in Stoke!!!

steve hawkes Verified account‏@steve_hawkes

By-election: one source, Labour now think they COULD win Copeland as postal votes good- and believe they have romped it in Stoke

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Any love for the turnout in Stoke at 5/6 below 34.5 bearing in mind a combination of abysmal candidates, Hurricane Doris and the historic low turnout in the constituency?

I'm tempted but the relatively high profile and media coverage is a little off putting.

Just a brief update RE Copeland by-election. Labour who we have backed are now available to lay at 3.1 having shortened a bit more overnight.
Anyone able to bet with Patrick might consider taking the 3/1 available there.

And let's not forget the first ever World Cup match in 1975 when, chasing England's 334 in 60 overs, India finished on 132-3 with Sunil Gavaskar scoring 36 not out from 174 balls.

Tony Greig let England down by going for 2.88 runs per over...

One of my first cricketing memories was the 1979 world cup final and watching Brearley and Boycott plod along at about 3 runs an over in pursuit of the Windies 290 odd. Unsurprisingly once they were out the inevitable collapse took place as I'd imagine the run rate must have been astronomical!

Thanks. Might have a look at that. I think Copeland may be a litttle like Eatleigh in the last Parliament in that the Tories may struggle in a By-election due to local factors but win it in a General. We shall see

Really interesting write up Tight End thanks very much. I'm quite surprised at the level of support UKIP are still getting which I guess is great for Labour backers. Personally I couldn't have UKIP on my mind particularly after the Nuttall shenanigans. Agree re the Labour candidate, I would worry backing them at too short a price because of him and of course the Corbyn factor.
I think the postal votes will probably see Labour home ultimately but it will be intersting to see how the Lib Dems fare.

Any views on Copeland?

Price on Labour shortening in the Copeland election. Into 3.45 to back and 3.55 to lay. 11/4 still with Paddy and Betray.

Will do.

Brilliant. Good luck us!!

Yes please.  I think it's worth a small bet.

The other By-Election.....

Theresa May is visiting Copeland tomorrow – obviously the Tories believe they are going to win. The PM’s 700 mile round-trip comes with just over week left until polling day (23 February). Copeland has been Labour since the seat was created in 1983. She wouldn’t be going up there if the Tories didn’t think it was a cert….

Still 2/5 at Hills, as low as 1/5

Be tempted to back Labour to cling on here. Their candidate is former doctor and blue light ambulance driver for St Johns and is campaigning on the closure of the maternity ward and other services in the local hospital ( the next nearest unit is 40 miles away for some).  She's not mentioning Corbyn at all. Labour have never lost this seat (although it's often been close).  The Tories are primarily campaigning on nuclear power issues which are a big issue here as Sellafield is in the constituency and Corbyn is strongly anti things atomic.

In a general election I think the Tories  would win but it's possible enough of their supporters won't bother to vote in protest at the hospital cuts, and equally enough disgruntled Labour supporters will either stick with them or look at other alternatives.

Labour are making positive noises about their chances here which is in itself unusual in an age where parties try to play down their expectations.

Again the Tories may well win but I think the NHS issues are a big problem for them to overcome and the market has overreacted to their chances. Labour are available at over 3/1 on Betfair albeit for pennies and 11/4 generally with the bookmakers which seems a more than fair price to me.

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Hasn't Brexit and Trump proved that lying doesn't damage a politician's chances any more?
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Lying about Hillsborough is easier to prove than most politicians porkies. Think that's UKIP done for (in Stoke)  and probably Nuttalls career as well.

Think the move to Labour was a result of Nuttall admitting he wasnt honest about either being at Hillsborough or having friends there...not sure which. Would the Lib Dem candidate being Asian help attract votes from the community too? Can't see Labour losing but can easily see their voters not being motivated which the Lib Dems definitely will be. Either way I think the price is wrong.

Ok. I'l be interested to hear your thoughts!!