A look at the “Gamblers Fallacy”.
In a past life, fifteen years ago now, I studied statistics. I studied statistics in economics and studied so much that I got to call myself a doctor and this past weekend a few innocent comments by players at a tournament got me to thinking of the unspoken links between what I studied then and what I informally study now.
course, having done the same, I've come to think that economic theory understimates
just how bad (or non-rational) we are when to comes to probability or statistics (and also misses out on the utility that we gain or lose just from being in a position of uncertainty, nevermind expected value)
Either way I don't think we need to look further than the fortune the national lottery makes (aka the worst bet you can get your hands on)
Another said to me
“I think I will just fold Jacks pre-flop next time. They are never any good for me”
When you get frustrated and are not catching starting hands, do you anticipate a change of cards that you know must be certain? Do you take more risks when you are behind in a cash game? Are you wary of "unlucky hands" or always play a "favourite" hand? This is all part of the Gambler's Fallacy believing past events influence future events in games of chance, or to use current parlance for poker “mixed games of skill and chance”.
I find this one particularly interesting tighty, because I still suffer from it. J9s is a particularly "unlucky" hand for me, even if I'm getting in cheap. I imagine the reason that it feels unlucky is because I am particularly bloody inept at playing it... so dodging "unlucky" hands might be a good thing, if its a clue to a dodgy area of your game. Similarly I often hear people saying how unlucky they are with bulelts or AK - perhaps thats a sign they aren't playing em well.
Benny Binion, ever the great showman and innovator, used to make a fortune on the Streets of Vegas. He had ten cent craps on a table outside his casino front door. It was crowded and manic and everyone had to really watch their own bets. All around the table were the system players writing down what the dice rolled and keeping a log. If a man noted an absence of boxcars, twelve, then he would muscle his way through the elbow to elbow crowd to start betting on twelve. Such games helped found the empire that built the WSOP as we know it today. The Gambler's Fallacy is believing that anything is "due" in gambling.
I love the way at the roullete table casino's give away a free pen, and a card with numbers on so you can keep track... positively encouraging the ol' gamblers fallacy - its an indication to the naive punter that the wheel does have a memory.
Now here's a question - Is this unethical? 
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