If there are any holes in provable facts in that story, the press will find them and he’ll be toast.

He came over better than I expected, although the test drive looks a bit dodgy.

How many miles can you go on the average tank of petrol in a Land Rover Disco?

Can you get from London to Durham, to and from the nearest hospital, plus a 1.5 hr round trip to Barnard Castle without ever filling up?

At around 30mpg in a 77 litre tank, I think it’s about 500 miles capacity ?

Boris was always going to dig his heels in.

Big mistake. The public will punish him for it.

Cummings has been less than streetwise given the attention he is bound to attract.

When his wife was ill, he could have looked at the kids himself. When he was ill he could have had help from friends and family in London.

Significant numbers of politicians from all sides seem to lose their common sense when they get some power.

Cummings should really know that whatever the morals/hypocrisy, what really matters is perception and damage to the Government.

If the first trip wasn’t bad enough, the other reported sightings are the nail in the coffin.

If Boris wants to keep Joe Public on side, he has to go.

Second expose tonight of another trip to Durham and a trip 30 miles away when there.

Top bins journalism after cabinet ministers all defend the indefensible all day

He should sack him quickly as this isn’t going to go away.

Unfortunately Boris will probably dig his heels in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356

Looks like Boris under pressure on this one.

Bound to be pressure for Cummings to go.

Andy Black plays in Dublin. See him at the IPO each year. Was on his PLO cash table last October.

An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.

What would your policy on returning children to school be?

A gradual return from 1st June (subject to the R caveats) seems a sensible step.

Most reasonable people including a previous labour education secretary seem too agree.

WHO have said in countries where schools have remained open there is no evidence of infection hot spots.

It’s surely about a sensible balance of risk. Plenty of workers in this country are doing that day in day out.

And tonight, Tony Blair is latest to endorse opening school as it’s based on evidence in his opinion.

Maybe, just maybe, the government are striking the right balance on this.

Good evening

I’ll write a full reply tomorrow, I’m suddenly tired now. It’s an interesting one, both scientifically and politically. Especially, as you say, with Adonis, Blunkett and Blair getting involved.

Good morning

Let’s start off with an excellent snippet of wisdom from none other than Dr Phil Hammond (I don’t know for sure who he is but he’s been on TV as a medical doctor, I’ve decided not to look him up as this excellent statement should stand on its own merits). He says (paraphrasing) ‘As soon as something becomes a secret, it is no longer science’. It’s the best criticism of SAGE and the government interpretation of science so far, in just one sentence. I’ll come back to this later but let’s talk schools. The SAGE position is that opening schools will increase epidemic spread by 2-4%. They can’t know this and so they should publish everything they’ve used to come to this conclusion.

Critical pieces of information will be:

1. What potential do children have to become infected? ONS data says prior to school closure the disease was as prevalent in children as any other age group, thankfully as we know, they are likely (in relative terms) to experience mild illness or be entirely asymptomatic. The outbreak of the Kawasaki like disease is small enough not to be considered at this stage but it’s vital that we understand it better going forward.
2. What viral load is carried by symptomatic and asymptomatic children? The German study suggested it was as high in both groups as any other disease carrying group.
3. What is the overarching priority in terms of what we are trying to achieve? I would put forward that avoiding a second peak with uncontrolled epidemic spread is #1, this is consistent with what the government say their priority is.
4. What pressures are the government under that might undermine their efforts on number 3? A lot of their core support and highly influential supporters prioritise the economy above everything and won’t fully understand the science. They will be desperate not to be ‘left behind’ in terms of getting the economy back up to full speed.

So far there is a broad equivalence between the badly impacted nations, we can make a strong case for the US, Brazil, Russia and the U.K being marked down, I’ll have another go at making this case later. The thing that would be catastrophic both in terms of deaths and economically would be a second lockdown. Without effective track and trace and with higher levels of infection than other countries that have tentatively reopened, what can the U.K do to try and avoid being a big second peaker, I would argue keeping the schools closed until September, even with all the downside that carries, is the right call.

In terms of the cross party/bench support for the idea, senior New Labour figures will be keen to move on from the period under Corbyn and they think they’ve found a safe option to side with the government on something that they believe will have support from across a wide section of the political spectrum, they might be right but we don’t know yet.

Life lesson (took me a long time to learn this one): When we don’t know something, be completely open about our ignorance, almost proud of it and then proceed with caution, an endless desire to learn and an open mind.

I very much doubt that Blair’s response to schools opening has anything to do with moving on from Corbyn. Agreeing with the Tories is still agreeing with the Tories. In may just be the case that there is “support from across a wide section of the political spectrum” because it’s the common sense, right move?

And if opening schools is so controversial (by your assessment) why would it be a safe option?

And whilst I’m sure unions will want to protect the interest of their members, there will definitely be a militant element in the leadership of certain teaching unions that will be very keen to make this a political issue and give the Government a bloody nose. 

An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.

What would your policy on returning children to school be?

A gradual return from 1st June (subject to the R caveats) seems a sensible step.

Most reasonable people including a previous labour education secretary seem too agree.

WHO have said in countries where schools have remained open there is no evidence of infection hot spots.

It’s surely about a sensible balance of risk. Plenty of workers in this country are doing that day in day out.

And tonight, Tony Blair is latest to endorse opening schools as it’s based on evidence in his opinion.

Maybe, just maybe, the government are striking the right balance on this.

An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.

What would your policy on returning children to school be?

A gradual return from 1st June (subject to the R caveats) seems a sensible step.

Most reasonable people including a previous labour education secretary seem too agree.

WHO have said in countries where schools have remained open there is no evidence of infection hot spots.

It’s surely about a sensible balance of risk. Plenty of workers in this country are doing that day in day out.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H2TEOnOnHVM

This Swedish Professor has interesting views on the handling and on the Imperial Study. Appears well qualified in this area.

Thought it was worth a look to get different views, not sure if he’s right or wrong.

Perhaps it’s fair to say that the situation has a long way to go and ultimately history will judge how this has been/should have been handled when it fully plays out.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/uk-freedom-movement-sheffield-lockdown-18246932.amp

UK freedom movement planning 60 illegal gatherings this weekend, including one in my local park in Sheffield.

Let’s not worry about the reproduction rate or people dying.

Crazy.

Seemed to me that Witty and Valance were happy to back the scientific reasoning on a slow loosening of the lockdown but wanted to distance themselves from the communications message.

This is completely anecdotal but I've just been to the supermarket. Same time, same day that I do every week. It was much busier. No queue outside everyone just allowed in. Social distancing out of the window.

One point there was a group of 8 people (2 to a trolley so only 1 allowed in seems to be gone) stood at the edges of 4 aisles talking to each other about how hard it is to social distance in a supermarket whilst people are having to walk past them. No awareness whatsoever.

What with the magic Monday headlines, the Government's lack of talking back hard against them before the bank holiday, the Government's new confused messaging, it's hard to see how this doesn't explode again. So lockdown for longer, more deaths, and more long term damage to the economy.

This is the danger, a large percentage of population have no common sense and don't give a fuck about the consequences of their actions.

You see it in supermarkets or out for a walk, 2 metres distancing is ignored constantly. I've experienced it regularly (I know its anecdotal but its still happening)

Whilst if you have any degree of reasonable intelligence, the new rules will be easy enough to understand (as someone said, this isnt rocket science), a significant minority will just take the piss and push/break the rules - and the numbers doing it will only increase.

I said before, I would have waited another couple of weeks, largely because of the clueless that will just not play by the rules. At least it would give more time for the lockdown to have its intended effect. 

I would have waited another week or two before this announcement. Let the R drop a bit further.

At least those pressing Johnson for an exit strategy from this have now got a plan.

They didnt like a simple stay at home message and wanted more. Now they don’t like his plans (which are subject to change).

He will get criticised which ever route he takes.

R wouldn't have dropped in 2 weeks, it would have likely risen.  I think you have misunderstood R.

Why would R have risen if we had continued with lockdown?

It is the rate of infection per person.  Having less people infected doesn't change that.  Having people wandering round does.  Given more people wandering round by the week means that R was naturally increasing even if number of infected was falling

can't explain more, Sunday big poker night

That makes sense, I suppose if we maintain R at say 0.7, it doesn’t have to fall further for the virus to run out of steam.

So I get that maintaining and not necessarily reducing R further (if it’s under 1) is effective.

It also true to say that lockdown and probably as importantly social distancing measures do reduce R initially.  

And on my 2 week point, if lockdown/distancing/better testing/improving care home conditions etc work then we could theoretically see R fall further.