[They even grimmed me on my travelling expenses]

Bald just admit you are clueless like all your traders and head of trading and say you fecked up.  Digging a hole this deep is just embarrassing.  Everyone in the game knows you are the most clueless firm going you don't have to pretend otherwise.  The interview i had with the head of trading at bald in early 2004 with his two right hand men was comical.  Their PR man sounds like he is an ex betting shop manager. They even grimmed me on my travelling expenses even though they were agreed pre interview attendance.  Horrid firm of the highest order.

Maybe Freddie isn't so bad after all  

Only reason i attended the interview was to effectively get paid the petrol money to travel from the south coast when i was with Canbet to a bet365 jolly at stoke via Warrington.  Must be the only firm in the world who before interviewing you ask you what your current salary is then invite you to an interview which pays less than half of what you are currently earning and expect you to seriously take a 55% pay cut to move to Warrington to go and work for bald!

My friend went on to enquire about it. He was firs told the offer ran until the 10th, then that it wasn't available...

 [xxx] OK, so you have withdrawn your main Masters promotion two days before it starts?


[xxx] well done marketing department!


[James W] yes it is no longer available


[xxx] ok thanks for clarifying


[James W] we have it our limits for that promotion


[xxx] as a matter of interest, how could you hit your limits on that promotion?


[xxx] given that is applies to all the golfers in the Masters?


[xxx] did you decide that you would lay £1000 of bets on the Masters and then withdraw the offer?


[xxx] your explanation doesn't really make sense


[xxx] How much was your limit? £50? £100?


[James W] we would have had a max payout. once we had meet that risk we will remove the promotion


[xxx] I don't see how that works on the Masters


[xxx] what was the max payout?


[James W] I can not say I don't have that information

[xxx] ok, thanks for your help


 

Bald just admit you are clueless like all your traders and head of trading and say you fecked up.  Digging a hole this deep is just embarrassing.  Everyone in the game knows you are the most clueless firm going you don't have to pretend otherwise.  The interview i had with the head of trading at bald in early 2004 with his two right hand men was comical.  Their PR man sounds like he is an ex betting shop manager.  They even grimmed me on my travelling expenses even though they were agreed pre interview attendance.  Horrid firm of the highest order.

This is no different to Rob offering a £150k gtd for the deepstack.  It making £110k and Rob saying the gtd is cancelled sorry lads.  In some ways it's even worse because they had all the information available to them and just totally fecked up their calculations yet expect the punters to take the hit.  1.01 that no member of staff responsible will be held to account for it.  Blind leading the blind at bald's.

Incoming amusing Betfred story...

 Betfred have been forced to withdraw their main Masters (golf) promotion after discovering that it was mathematically unsound.

 They were offering:

 Bonus King Betfred have a US Masters offer of their own. Just place a bet pre-tournament on the outright winner and if your player makes a hole in one at any time during the tournament Betfred will pay you out as if your player won the Masters!

 It is about 85/1 for any player to score a hole in one so betting any player bigger than 500/1 to fluke a hole in one was huge value.

 They have quietly withdrawn the offer this morning but haven't told any of their affiliates etc so customers may well still place the bet without knowing it has been withdrawn.

typical bald.  Clueless 'loltraders'/marketing people of the highest order.  So typical they don't honour their feck up as well just grim punters quietly.

Psg have lost by 2 goals just once in 110 games.
Enough data for any kind of bet that could be value?

Data is irrelevant.  How many times during that sample have they been nearly a 4/1 shot to win the game?  In a piss taking sort of way i have only been beaten in a 100m race once in 110 times by all the 65 year beer drinkers in my local boozer.  Today Dwayne Chambers and Arron lennon are turning up today for a pint and fancy a race. 

I'm staying at Treasure Island for 2 weeks from the 15th June.

Looking at the schedules out so far I think I'll probably be heading to the Golden Nugget for the mixed game tourneys most days.

Question is what's my best bet for transport there and back? Taxi's, buses (I'm quite fit but I'm guessing the heat and distance will be a killer to walk).

Is it worth hiring a car?

I'm heading out on my own so I have no wish to see the major sights as I'm going just to unwind and play poker away from the interruptions of work/family.  

Thanks in advance.

depending on how many nugget games you are playing in 2 weeks i would suggest staying there if you can cancel your current accommodation.  The nugget events have very deep structures for 1 day low buy in/relatively low runner events.  I won one in 2011 (thin i know) and it didn't finish until 4am after a pretty early start.  Taxi to the strip going to set you back $25 minimum.  Also as has been said before make sure you get the NI number sorted for tax reasons as the nugget dont help you in this like the rio and will tax u 30% withholding tax without even thinking about it.  One of the downsides of playing at the nugget.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/top-scandinavian

Henrik surely a rick with someone?

Just seen a tweet from BF sports book, as of 7pm tonight they are offering industry best prices on certain players. Would explain a few of there genorous prices.

They are laying a lumpy bet as well for a change.  Given i can barely get a copper coin on most things with them they will lay me an outright bet to win £25k.  I think they monitor your exchange business and base your sport by sport limits  in the sportsbook based on your success at sports on the exchange.  Sports i am successful at on the exchange i cant get 1p on at the sportsbook yet sports like golf which i rarely bet on the exchange they will lay me a bet to lose £25k.  Anyone else got any views on bf sportsbooks restriction policy?

[13/8 sportingbet tikay.]

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/top-senior

couples 15/8 satan j is a no go

13/8 sportingbet tikay....don't have that account

adz to yay or nay at that price

bf sportsbook are 7/4 per oddschecker you should be able to get on there fine surely?

i've er, um, emptied that account.

those golden scousers have a lot to answer for!

[13/8 sportingbet tikay.]

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/top-senior

couples 15/8 satan j is a no go

13/8 sportingbet tikay....don't have that account

adz to yay or nay at that price

bf sportsbook are 7/4 per oddschecker you should be able to get on there fine surely?  Ladbrokes have been knocked over for their 15/8 today and are now quoting 5/4.

Fred Couples last four finishes at Augusta:-

2010 - 6th
2011 - 15th
2012 - 12th
2013 - 13th

Loves Augusta. Still hits it a long way averaging 299.4 yards this season. Won his 10th Champions Tour Classic last month and has been playing great for a long long time on that tour.

Bwhine are best priced 4/1 to finish in the top 20 at Augusta. What do we think?

Fred as Top Senior at 15/8 looks a solid bet to my eyes. That group looks v weak by comparison and looks at worst a flip between him and MAJimenez

Any option to lay it off after he's leading the first round?

Saw that market earlier, looks a cracking bet considering Marks stats that he put up.

Given he is around 33/1 to top 5 (3%) and 10/1 (9%) to top 10 4/1 (20%) top 20 looks very fair.  He has to be way more like to finish in the 11-20 slot than the 1-10 finishing spots.  Like the 4/1 a lot.

I did say all this the other day.

but that was before a good bet appeared on the other side.  Also people want to bet other players and it allows Tikay to decide on merit without worrying about betting too much on one event.

If you are happy the 3/1 is another good bet then go for it but stake the bet according to its relative edge we have not just to lock in on the first bet which clearly has a much bigger edge.  There is no need to worry about bets 'conflicting with each other' so to speak.

This is the former winners best odds and derived %

as   13   7.7
bw   29   3.4
cs   41   2.4
pm   15   6.7
ac   67   1.5
ti   201   0.5
zj   36   2.8
fc   175   0.6
sl   1001   0.1
lm   1001   0.1
bc   1001   0.1
cs   1001   0.1
iw   1001   0.1
tw   1001   0.1
mw   1001   0.1
mo   1001   0.1
jmo   1001   0.1
bl   800   0.1
vs   700   0.1

               26.8%

So 3-1 is good and we are making more money by doing the bet.


and btw if traders aren't going to notice the initial bet, why should they notice an entirely differently designed bet?

£25k a year 'loltraders' are funny creatures and some take offense if you arb against them although this isn't technically an arb.  It's not certain to happen just warning that certain less educated traders might take offence if they spot it.

Think the 3-1 is slight value seems to be about a 26% shot based on present odds - and also allows other bets without conflicts.  

Think having 8/11 and 4/5 about a 1/5 is going to RIP the account anyway......

No chance the major reason for this is tiger not being there which has changed the price massively (not the only reason as the price was wrong as well to start with) plus its on a golf major for £200 on an odds on shot.  Would be amazed if victor's golf traders have even seen the bet never mind care about it.  Victor will have made far more than the £200 they owe you if your bet wins by the amount they will have hoovered on tiger ante post bets (i assume these are settled as losers - i never bet golf ante post but assume they are settled the same as horse racing ante post bets)

For Team Maths, a question please.

With the propensity for people to tie places in golf is 35-1 1,2,3,4,5 better than 33-1,1,2,3,4,5,6?

i would take the extra place given the tiny difference between the prices but given the number of dead heats for place terms i wouldn't be sure of the maths to back it up.

So if we put £75 on the 3-1 we have bet £275

and get £300 back if a former winner

and £353 back if a maiden

and dosh freed up to back any other stuff

The money won't be freed up to back other stuff. £75 extra will be tied up until Monday (this isn't a problem from a cash flow point of view).  Also backing both outcomes with the same bookmaker and effectively locking in a massive profit might create issues with the account life depending on the views of the traders involved.

We can reduce our BMU maiden winner liability with this

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/us-master-winners-v-non-us-master-winners

Unless I'm missing something they now think maiden winner is 1/5......

Non maiden ie former winner is 3-1 - I think its actually a touch shorter than that.

We have had £200 on a 1/5 shot now at slightly odds on.  This is well within bank roll limits given the edge we have.  I really don't see any reason to limit the liability just embrace the variance.  I know this was the initial plan but given the huge edge we know seem to have i don't really see the need to do this.  Seems a lovely spot to just let it roll unless the 3/1 former winner is actually value itself and we can have 2 max bets which provide us with no variance at all.