I had a draw super yankee the first week this year when every game was a virtual flip.  First time in the events history that has happened as far as i am aware as taylor has always been big odds on for years in most of his game.  Safe to say taylor got drilled 7-0 and all 5 didnt end up a draw even though the first game went big odds on in running for a draw.  I am losing on these bets over a relatively small sample but pretty sure the maths is right and you just have to ride out the swings.

Curveless stats posts should be banned IMO.



Sort it out, lads!

impressive use of graphics!

Its nowhere near as complicated as it sounds.  For the draw to happen each player has to win 6 legs.  Therefore if you think about it as spinning a coin you need exactly 6 heads and exactly 6 tails. 

The assumptions are as follows: Firstly that each individual leg is totally independent from each other ( it can be argued in a game like darts about confidence/mind games/momentum that this is not the case but i generally think each leg is independent).  Secondly although each leg isn't a coin flip in the sense that the player throwing first is around a 65/35 fav to win the leg this is countered by the fact that he is obv a 35/65 dog in the other 6 legs where he throws 2nd therefore over the whole 12 legs this effectively balances out to each leg being a 50/50 flip even though each leg never is if you follow.  This assumes that one players scoring style isn't more conducive to winning legs throwing first than 2nd.  Given both players are a flip to win the game then its fair to assume that this wouldn't be the case in the vast majority of cases.

Therefore the calculation of exactly 6 flips being heads out of 12 is the likelihood of the match effectively being a draw which comes out at 0.2255859 = 22.56% or 100/22.56= 4.43 as a decimal or 3.43/1 as a fractional price.

This bet was always value in the old format of best of 14 legs where the draw was obviously 7-7 where if you do the same calc but exactly 7 out of 14 the correct price came to 3.77/1 as a fractional price.  With hearn adopting the shorter best of 12 leg matches now it is even more value although the firms can continued to offer 4/1 or bigger generally about the outcome presumably because hardly any casual punter bets the draw and they are happy to put additional margin into the 2 outcomes which they do lay much more of (ie player A and B) to increase their long term theoretical margin for the product.  As a result we can benefit from swimming against the tide so to speak on a regular basis.

Darts bet for tonight

Prem league games which are close to a flip are pretty much always value on the draw.  True maths price based on a binomial distribution calculation makes the draw around a 7/2 shot to 100%.  Closest game tonight is Newton Anderson which is virtually a flip on paper.  I will be looking to get north of 9/2 on bf pre match once the market tightens.  There is obviously not much liquidity in the market currently and all firms are 4/1 which is still value but 9/2 or more should be available on the machine closer to kick off.

£50 recommended at 9/2 or bigger if available later on bf or with fixed odds firms.  If not then £30 at 4/1 is acceptable for a smaller investment given the edge is smaller and/or you are not available to place the bet later with TV commitments etc.

[grumpy]

Firstly would like to thank Tighty for inviting me back to the forum after a near 4 year gap at DTD at the weekend.  After taking plenty from this thread in the past 2 years and not being able to give anything back apart from private skype discussions with redarmi/Mrs Bandit/Tighty

Interesting point for discussion here.

A lot has been spoken recently about the EPL outright market on this fred and it being perfectly formed etc etc 'all the info is out there' etc etc. Whilst i agree with that in most markets there are plenty of other factors which 'alter' these markets this time of the season and historically has always been a profitable way of punting for me over the years exploiting firms ante post positions in 'giving' away profits to green up on their ante post liabilities on teams they haven't laid 'to get a bit in the book' or 'it suits to lay' blah blah blah.

I think this season is even more likely than ever to provide these opportunities for the following reason.  Looking at how the 4 football league tables in england stand at the minute virtually every mug ew acca/yankee/lucky 15 that punters have placed at the start of the season on the ante post fav or 2nd fav is going to win at least the place part of the bet with some truely massive potential liabilities running up on the win parts of these bets.

EPL is obvious front two in the market ante post are sitting 1st and 2nd and Manchester Utd who were co favs of 3 when the betting opened drifted like a barge towards the start of the season as money poured in ew for arsenal and liverpool.

Championship the front two in the ante post market were qpr and leics.  Div 1 Wolves and brentford the same.  Div 2 Chesterfield and Scunthorpe the same.  Luton in the conference.  With the exception of qpr all of these teams are massively odds on to finish in the top 3 of their league so virtually every 'mug' ew acca/multiple bet will have already copped for the vast majority of customers for the place part of the bet.  The liabilities running onto the win parts of these bets could truely be huge and a lot of firms systems will not be able to compute the liabilities they actually face on these accurately.  I think the two key teams the layers will be wanting to get 'beat' will be QPR and Wolves who were both such solid favs for their division compared to their other rivals and will be the cornerstone of so many multis.  If they can get QPR out of the top 3 a lot of the place multiples will lose.

Its these types of situations which could easily give us the opportunity to find firms 'happy to lay' certain teams 'over the odds' up until the end of the season at bigger prices than they should be.  I think we should be actively looking at these markets over the next 2 months for these types of opportunities.

With that in mind the current EPL outright market and top 2 market looks quite out of line with expectations especially the liverpool and arsenal prices.  In the outright market Liverpool are 8.6-8.8 on bf arsenal are 9.0-9.2 on bf both obviously for decent money.  Both are 8/1 with the fixed odds firms if you shop around.  However in the top 2 market its somewhat different with arsenal a 2/1 shot and liverpool nearly a 4/1 shot on bf.  Surely these two markets are a function of each other and these differences should never be in place to this degree.  To add further data to the case sporting index have arsenals season points 2.5 points higher than liverpool.

Looking at the data above it would appear that either liverpool are a great lay at under 8/1 on bf in the outright market and/or arsenal are a great bet at 8/1 comm free with a selection of firms.  I am not entirely sure which gives us the biggest edge.  Happy to receive feedback from the elders on here but this market has to have value in it somewhere given these distortions.

Goal difference is obviously a factor in liverpool's favour but is never such an issue to have such a difference in the top 2 prices.  We can assume that sporting index's quotes will absorb all remaining fixture/scheduling differences between the two teams.

My recommendation is a £100 win bet on arsenal at 8/1 although i have backed arsenal personally and laid liverpool at 8.6 today i dont really want to open my account on the fred laying an ante post 8/1 shot.

Look forward to everyone's thoughts.

Morning Mr Arrboy.

Fred needed you, where have you been? Oh, wait......

Very much enjoyed that Post, & subsequent stuff, you will be a great asset to us I believe.

So, this Arsenal Bet. I followed the logic just fine, but I just have 2 questions.

1) Is this an outright bet purely on price, or is there a potential trade down the line?

2) We already have £60 @ 15/8 for Arsenal to finish Top Three. Presumably, both bets can work OK independently if they are, or were, value?

I'm quite happy to climb aboard as suggested, but just need to learn how to tell my arse from my elbow first.   

Answers to Questions

1) This is an outright bet purely based on price/logic given the data presented.  I don't have any view that arsenal 'are certs' to win the EPL this year etc etc.  I don't operate like that.  They should be shorter than Liverpool by all known data in the market place and they are not therefore it is a bet.  There is always the potential to trade down the line with any bet but i am firmly in the camel/grumpy camp that this should always be done independently and treated totally as a separate bet and the previous bet ignored.  Although i appreciate that Mrs Bandit/Chompy often back something for way more than it is comfortable bankroll wise and lay it shorter at the same time on the machine if possible to actually get an even better price for their bet for the stakes the bankroll is comfortable with.  I am all for doing that option if and when it is available but that is not available in this case as arsenal are the same price on the exchanges as they are with the fixed odds firms.

2) This is an issue to some degree as you cant keep piling into bets which are related with unlimited funds when you work on a fixed bankroll.  However i don't see this as an issue in this case.  As most people who know me will tell you i am a bankroll nit when it comes to staking etc i always go on the side of caution however a lot of the stuff i do will be at odds on and quite often big odds on which might seem high risk but as long as the margin is there i never worry about whether something is 1/100 or 100/1.

With this in mind i would really like to recommend laying Liverpool at 8.4 to win £25 on bf with a liability of £185 (they have contracted further overnight in the outright market from 8.8 to 8.4 for no known reason) however i appreciate this ties up significant working capital over an extended period including Cheltenham so i will recommend avoiding this unless the bankroll going forward medium term can afford this amount of cash tied up for up to 10 weeks (the market on bf will be settled as soon as its mathematically certain that Liverpool can't win the league)

Good work, thank you, & that all makes sense, even to me.

Especially pleased to see you use the name grumpy for one of our Elders.

I don't have a problem tying thast cash up for 10 weeks (probably a little less, in fact......) so I think that may be the way to go.

Liverpool are currently 8.6 to Lay, should I insert 8.4 & wait to see if we get Matched? Pardon my ignorance on Betty, which I find a bit confusing.

Yes i would insert 8.4 for £25 and it would get matched within 24 hours given there is only £400 waiting at 8.4.  There is no rush to get matched as there are no games until Saturday.  Take the 8/1 win on arsenal with victor and/or paddy to avoid paying commission on the bet.

Firstly would like to thank Tighty for inviting me back to the forum after a near 4 year gap at DTD at the weekend.  After taking plenty from this thread in the past 2 years and not being able to give anything back apart from private skype discussions with redarmi/Mrs Bandit/Tighty

Interesting point for discussion here.

A lot has been spoken recently about the EPL outright market on this fred and it being perfectly formed etc etc 'all the info is out there' etc etc. Whilst i agree with that in most markets there are plenty of other factors which 'alter' these markets this time of the season and historically has always been a profitable way of punting for me over the years exploiting firms ante post positions in 'giving' away profits to green up on their ante post liabilities on teams they haven't laid 'to get a bit in the book' or 'it suits to lay' blah blah blah.

I think this season is even more likely than ever to provide these opportunities for the following reason.  Looking at how the 4 football league tables in england stand at the minute virtually every mug ew acca/yankee/lucky 15 that punters have placed at the start of the season on the ante post fav or 2nd fav is going to win at least the place part of the bet with some truely massive potential liabilities running up on the win parts of these bets.

EPL is obvious front two in the market ante post are sitting 1st and 2nd and Manchester Utd who were co favs of 3 when the betting opened drifted like a barge towards the start of the season as money poured in ew for arsenal and liverpool.

Championship the front two in the ante post market were qpr and leics.  Div 1 Wolves and brentford the same.  Div 2 Chesterfield and Scunthorpe the same.  Luton in the conference.  With the exception of qpr all of these teams are massively odds on to finish in the top 3 of their league so virtually every 'mug' ew acca/multiple bet will have already copped for the vast majority of customers for the place part of the bet.  The liabilities running onto the win parts of these bets could truely be huge and a lot of firms systems will not be able to compute the liabilities they actually face on these accurately.  I think the two key teams the layers will be wanting to get 'beat' will be QPR and Wolves who were both such solid favs for their division compared to their other rivals and will be the cornerstone of so many multis.  If they can get QPR out of the top 3 a lot of the place multiples will lose.

Its these types of situations which could easily give us the opportunity to find firms 'happy to lay' certain teams 'over the odds' up until the end of the season at bigger prices than they should be.  I think we should be actively looking at these markets over the next 2 months for these types of opportunities.

With that in mind the current EPL outright market and top 2 market looks quite out of line with expectations especially the liverpool and arsenal prices.  In the outright market Liverpool are 8.6-8.8 on bf arsenal are 9.0-9.2 on bf both obviously for decent money.  Both are 8/1 with the fixed odds firms if you shop around.  However in the top 2 market its somewhat different with arsenal a 2/1 shot and liverpool nearly a 4/1 shot on bf.  Surely these two markets are a function of each other and these differences should never be in place to this degree.  To add further data to the case sporting index have arsenals season points 2.5 points higher than liverpool.

Looking at the data above it would appear that either liverpool are a great lay at under 8/1 on bf in the outright market and/or arsenal are a great bet at 8/1 comm free with a selection of firms.  I am not entirely sure which gives us the biggest edge.  Happy to receive feedback from the elders on here but this market has to have value in it somewhere given these distortions.

Goal difference is obviously a factor in liverpool's favour but is never such an issue to have such a difference in the top 2 prices.  We can assume that sporting index's quotes will absorb all remaining fixture/scheduling differences between the two teams.

My recommendation is a £100 win bet on arsenal at 8/1 although i have backed arsenal personally and laid liverpool at 8.6 today i dont really want to open my account on the fred laying an ante post 8/1 shot.

Look forward to everyone's thoughts.

Morning Mr Arrboy.

Fred needed you, where have you been? Oh, wait......

Very much enjoyed that Post, & subsequent stuff, you will be a great asset to us I believe.

So, this Arsenal Bet. I followed the logic just fine, but I just have 2 questions.

1) Is this an outright bet purely on price, or is there a potential trade down the line?

2) We already have £60 @ 15/8 for Arsenal to finish Top Three. Presumably, both bets can work OK independently if they are, or were, value?

I'm quite happy to climb aboard as suggested, but just need to learn how to tell my arse from my elbow first.   

Answers to Questions

1) This is an outright bet purely based on price/logic given the data presented.  I don't have any view that arsenal 'are certs' to win the EPL this year etc etc.  I don't operate like that.  They should be shorter than Liverpool by all known data in the market place and they are not therefore it is a bet.  There is always the potential to trade down the line with any bet but i am firmly in the camel/grumpy camp that this should always be done independently and treated totally as a separate bet and the previous bet ignored.  Although i appreciate that Mrs Bandit/Chompy often back something for way more than it is comfortable bankroll wise and lay it shorter at the same time on the machine if possible to actually get an even better price for their bet for the stakes the bankroll is comfortable with.  I am all for doing that option if and when it is available but that is not available in this case as arsenal are the same price on the exchanges as they are with the fixed odds firms.

2) This is an issue to some degree as you cant keep piling into bets which are related with unlimited funds when you work on a fixed bankroll.  However i don't see this as an issue in this case.  As most people who know me will tell you i am a bankroll nit when it comes to staking etc i always go on the side of caution however a lot of the stuff i do will be at odds on and quite often big odds on which might seem high risk but as long as the margin is there i never worry about whether something is 1/100 or 100/1.

With this in mind i would really like to recommend laying Liverpool at 8.4 to win £25 on bf with a liability of £185 (they have contracted further overnight in the outright market from 8.8 to 8.4 for no known reason) however i appreciate this ties up significant working capital over an extended period including Cheltenham so i will recommend avoiding this unless the bankroll going forward medium term can afford this amount of cash tied up for up to 10 weeks (the market on bf will be settled as soon as its mathematically certain that Liverpool can't win the league)

john mccann top bloke as you say.  Been one of my best mates for years in poker we used to travel around in 2008/9/10 everywhere together.  Possibly the unluckiest poker 'internet kid' to ever play the game and still never have had a job in 8 years.  No one in the game deserves a huge bink more than him.

Nice to be back Marky.  I will remember how to quote in posts tomorrow i think!

Nothing to do with my first bet being on the gunners surely!  Assume you would be too biased to concur with the selection.

and in order to pay for the offer they have now made half the field in the race bottom price on oddschecker.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novices-hurdle/winner

To add some balance they have gone NRNB so the cuts are more than justified.

my personal view is that the top 2 are correctly priced based on sporting index season points totals and the only error is in the win market for liverpool and arsenal.  As to why this can happen in such a big market i don't know.  Liverpool's GD is obviously an advantage they have over arsenal but not to the point that makes them a shorter price than arsenal in the outright market.  Another way to look at it would be if someone forced you to have a bet on liverpool top 2 at 9/2 with stanjames or 8/1 to win the league (vc and Paddy) i think i know where my money would be going.  Sometimes in huge markets like this prices can be wrong just because of weight of money.  I remember reading coral laid an £8k ew double to a high roller last year on liverpool at 33/1 and the ascot gold cup winner (the queens horse) at 5/1.  After the queens horse won they went 16/1 from 33/1 and were obviously ducking liverpool for the whole of the pre season on oddschecker.  Things like this can make these markets 'wrong' even though all the information is out there so to speak.  Liverpool are a more 'sexy' team around the world esp asia having been over bet for seasons so it could just be the bf layers who lay ante post have run out of liquidity they are prepared to tie up in liverpool and this is a supply and demand issue of more backers than available layers.

Firstly would like to thank Tighty for inviting me back to the forum after a near 4 year gap at DTD at the weekend.  After taking plenty from this thread in the past 2 years and not being able to give anything back apart from private skype discussions with redarmi/Mrs Bandit/Tighty

Interesting point for discussion here.

A lot has been spoken recently about the EPL outright market on this fred and it being perfectly formed etc etc 'all the info is out there' etc etc. Whilst i agree with that in most markets there are plenty of other factors which 'alter' these markets this time of the season and historically has always been a profitable way of punting for me over the years exploiting firms ante post positions in 'giving' away profits to green up on their ante post liabilities on teams they haven't laid 'to get a bit in the book' or 'it suits to lay' blah blah blah.

I think this season is even more likely than ever to provide these opportunities for the following reason.  Looking at how the 4 football league tables in england stand at the minute virtually every mug ew acca/yankee/lucky 15 that punters have placed at the start of the season on the ante post fav or 2nd fav is going to win at least the place part of the bet with some truely massive potential liabilities running up on the win parts of these bets.

EPL is obvious front two in the market ante post are sitting 1st and 2nd and Manchester Utd who were co favs of 3 when the betting opened drifted like a barge towards the start of the season as money poured in ew for arsenal and liverpool.

Championship the front two in the ante post market were qpr and leics.  Div 1 Wolves and brentford the same.  Div 2 Chesterfield and Scunthorpe the same.  Luton in the conference.  With the exception of qpr all of these teams are massively odds on to finish in the top 3 of their league so virtually every 'mug' ew acca/multiple bet will have already copped for the vast majority of customers for the place part of the bet.  The liabilities running onto the win parts of these bets could truely be huge and a lot of firms systems will not be able to compute the liabilities they actually face on these accurately.  I think the two key teams the layers will be wanting to get 'beat' will be QPR and Wolves who were both such solid favs for their division compared to their other rivals and will be the cornerstone of so many multis.  If they can get QPR out of the top 3 a lot of the place multiples will lose.

Its these types of situations which could easily give us the opportunity to find firms 'happy to lay' certain teams 'over the odds' up until the end of the season at bigger prices than they should be.  I think we should be actively looking at these markets over the next 2 months for these types of opportunities.

With that in mind the current EPL outright market and top 2 market looks quite out of line with expectations especially the liverpool and arsenal prices.  In the outright market Liverpool are 8.6-8.8 on bf arsenal are 9.0-9.2 on bf both obviously for decent money.  Both are 8/1 with the fixed odds firms if you shop around.  However in the top 2 market its somewhat different with arsenal a 2/1 shot and liverpool nearly a 4/1 shot on bf.  Surely these two markets are a function of each other and these differences should never be in place to this degree.  To add further data to the case sporting index have arsenals season points 2.5 points higher than liverpool.

Looking at the data above it would appear that either liverpool are a great lay at under 8/1 on bf in the outright market and/or arsenal are a great bet at 8/1 comm free with a selection of firms.  I am not entirely sure which gives us the biggest edge.  Happy to receive feedback from the elders on here but this market has to have value in it somewhere given these distortions.

Goal difference is obviously a factor in liverpool's favour but is never such an issue to have such a difference in the top 2 prices.  We can assume that sporting index's quotes will absorb all remaining fixture/scheduling differences between the two teams.

My recommendation is a £100 win bet on arsenal at 8/1 although i have backed arsenal personally and laid liverpool at 8.6 today i dont really want to open my account on the fred laying an ante post 8/1 shot.

Look forward to everyone's thoughts.

I never understood what the benefits were of using the new exchange site compared to the old one.  Maybe someone could let me know the benefits as i have never seen any.

yes never use the new site.  Dont like it at all

They are still there on the greyhound markets i am using now.  Just click on 'place bets' tab on the right where it normally defaults to 'rules' and they should be there as usual.  Nothing changed as far as i know

James

Sounds to me like the guy (a reg u say) probably dumps a load on the tables and they let him get away wiht murder.  Similar happens all over the place.  There is a guy at Brighton Rend who does similar stuff and never gets barred. He threw the deck of cards at a fellow player once in a self dealt game once yet not even a time ban.  Just part of the game u have to suck up sometimes.