14357
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Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: Everyone has one so why not..
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on: December 31, 2010, 01:35:36 PM
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well done sir. sounds like you've had a very successful and disciplined year of grinding and must've been great to achieve your goal, as well as finishing the year off in such style with the MC cash. All the best for 2011.
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14360
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Another river spot. 1/2 live cash.
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on: December 31, 2010, 06:23:21 AM
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At a frustratingly shortstacked 1/2 table (everyone is playing between 100 and 200) 6people limp to my BB, I check . SB checks a flop, I check, MP checks, MP2 bets £10, button calls, SB calls, I call with a gutshot, an over and a backdoor flush draw. Pot is now £54. Turn is an offsuit . SB checks I decide to lead smallish for £21. I thought this card would most likely get checked around and I didn't want to miss a bunch of value from draws, worse pairs and pair+gutter combos. everyone but the small blind folded. The river was the . SB checks. No reads on him whatsoever, except that he was between 35 and 45. Is this a value bet? Surely I have the best hand here most of the time? What will he call with though? Also is my call on the flop profitable or spewy given stack sizes? What about my turn line? Finally, is it better to move tables to a 1/1 where everyone is playing 50-200bbs than sit at this table where no1 has more than 100bbs?
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14361
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: How do i play Ace King suited
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on: December 31, 2010, 06:09:35 AM
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actually as a touni noob i'd be quite interested to know what the bottom of our shoving range should be in this spot with 12bbs.
Also, how many bbs would it take to make AKss an open rather than a shove? Would this change for AA?
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14362
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Strategy for bad beat jackpots
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on: December 31, 2010, 06:00:33 AM
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I don't think you can make any adjustments profitably. I mean the odds of a straight flush vs straight flush are so vast that even 500k isn't enough implied odds to make even -ev $4 decisions.
I suppose if you flop quad TTs and suspect they have say JJ, then perhaps slow play everytime rather than raise and risk them folding. It'll come running JJ 0.091% which is 9 in 10,000 times. Worth a punt for 500k.
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14364
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: How do i play Ace King suited
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on: December 31, 2010, 05:47:14 AM
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i tarp em with a flat. i limp then want to kill myself when it comes 8 high all spades.
FYP ps, get it all in pre. lol facevalueaments I tank for 5 mins and then fold face up 3bet, tank for 5mins then fold face up. best way to ladder ldo spagetti lolonaise. ps. I also like an open fold face up. Don't wanna get your chips in with ace high.
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14365
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / 1/1 live cash river spot
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on: December 31, 2010, 05:43:45 AM
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At the vic, a fish who is playing about 350 opens UTG for 6, folds round, I call with from the button. SB peels as well playing about £150 (same as me). SB looks late 20s, looks pretty recreational but likes to think he knows what he's doing (but probably doesn't). I'll go through my thought process on each street. They both check a flop. OR not the type to check overpairs at this point so I bet £13 for value/protection. SB calls pretty quickly, UTG doesn't really want to call but he does (not at all like he was trapping, more that he was confused that his AK or AQ hadnt hit and he might be beat). SB range is vwide, but I thought he'd likely not snapcall with 99 or Tx and at least think about raising. So I'm predominately putting him on 9x, smaller pairs and a plethora of draws. The turn is , they both check pretty quickly. I thought a strong 2nd barrel would be enough to take the pot down a lot of the time and fold out 9x hands as well as getting value from all the draws too. If SB has Tx then I thought likely continue to trap and not raise and I'll have 2outs to his stack and 4 outs ftw. I bet £35, SB called, UTG folded. The river is . He checks. Pot is £125ish. JQ gets there, 9x spades gets there, J9, JT. I beat all missed diamond draws and Tx hands (98 possible as well I suppose). Questions: Is my turn barrel spewy or alright? What to do on the river?
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14366
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: OK I AM a donk but halp...
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on: December 31, 2010, 05:17:05 AM
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I think it's a pretty trivial fold as opposed to call. But whether a shove is profitable is the interesting point here. His range that may fold is AK, AQ, 44, 55 and KQ imo (in order of likelyhood/combinations imo). His range that won't fold is TJcc and KJcc as said previously.
I think this player is capable of folding all sets and 2prs, even with the 3:1 price on the end (disclaimer: maths copied from beanie). This is easily enough to make the shove profitable, so long as he folds this portion of his range.
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14368
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Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Liverpool FC
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on: December 31, 2010, 05:03:55 AM
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It's unfortunate to always point the finger at the manger when things go wrong, but in this case I think entirely necessary. Yes we have some pretty awful players, but a good manager can get the most out of them and that is the short term solution. Long term we're going to need a massive overhaul at some point, but we need some results over the next few weeks. RH is not the man for either job. He has to go.
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