sick episode. liz did just fizzle out after impressive start. A bit like Kate last year, good early on but not enough spark. Stuart did really well in the boardroom obv, but may be undone in the interviews. Really looking forward to them getting ripped apart by those guys next week, should be great TV.

Thought Stella made a good attempt in trying not to be wooden and corporate, but she was clearly well out of her comfort zone and that came across to the ppl on the bus. Jamie did come out with some cracking lines (both mentioned above) which lead me to believe that he is actually not that smart at all. Honestly think its between Chris and Stuart ftw. 

just pot the aces with a speech "i have aces, please fold i cant afford to lose this" or simila. maybe even pot it and show them if thats allowed?

That would be the worst thing he could do, everyone would call knowing he is going to fold to the first half pot bet on any flop that doesn't contain an ace.

yeh true...

just pot the aces with a speech "i have aces, please fold i cant afford to lose this" or simila. maybe even pot it and show them if thats allowed?

gl mitch, deadman and keys +blondes, get the lot!

top 3 predictions are 1) Liz 2) Jo 3)Chris

Stella will be gone soon enough as will Stuart, his run has lasted long enough but has been terrific value.

yup, shove to isolate. if u run into QQ+then its just meh. the rest of the table will snap fold almost everytime here. They will probs fold any pair up to and probably including JJ cos two ppl have moved allin before them from early position.

Playing 6max cash on Sky Poker. 0.50/1. New to the table, first session so no reads or history.

Im playing £100, everyone covers. UTG opens to £3, CO, BTN, SB call. I call with 

Flop comes  . checked to UTG who cbet £5, folds round, I called.

Turn  . I checked again, he bet £9.50. I raised to £25. He called.

River  . Hero?

What is our best move on each street here? Once he calls the turn I put him only AK, AQ, AJ maybe AT. And maybe KQblue. OTR he'll call a bet with any big Ace, but could I win more by c/raising? The result is quite interesting...

Yes but EVEN if u think he can have the nut flush draw- then there is still only 4 combos- thats the point im making. A2cc A5cc A8cc Ac7x.

And bear in mind you said this "No, i said I disagree that there are few  AcX combos (ie. i think there are many)."

So im asking what are the many combinations? Cos obv no-one would consider 4 to be many

OK not many. But yes 4 combos, I dont know whether he'd raise ATcc from the straddle, possibly not, but given description, probably. 

". Even if he's bluffing in this spot 40% of the time it's still a fold. In live cash he doesnt need to risk 125bbs (or more) by making this gamble. He is basically just guessing and has no idea what frequency villain is bluffing/has the nuts. He can win 125bbs far easier in another spot because ppl put their money in dead so often. "

I wouldnt even know where to start with this. So il just say its basicallly all wrong

Do explain what is wrong with this. The 40% was off the top of my head, so i'll go into more detail. The pot is 76*2 + preflop (say 30). Lets say 185. If he calls the 250, he needs to be correct 36.5% of the time to break even. Therefore villain needs to be bluffing at least 36.5% to make it a call.

The point about there being better spots is so standard. These games are so easy, you can get ppl to put their money in dead.

Just so u realise- even if u insist he can have the nut flush draw on the flop, which seems dubious at best, the only combos he can have given pre is surely

A2
A5
A8

A5 is a gutshot, so no idea why he is tanking with that. So even if you want to say he can have the nut flush draw you are basically saying his combo of hands he is repping is Ac7x Ac2c Ac8c. Personally i think the only hand he gets to the river like this after dwelling is Ac7x. So when I say he is repping a narrow range which makes it a shove I cannot see how i can possibly be wrong. But you are more than welcome to enlighten me

the dwelling from a good/capable player does not mean hes unlikely to have just the nut flush draw. He could be thinking about raising with the A5cc or thinking about raising with all the Axcc combos u mentioned. If you believe Ac7 is the only hand he can have that gets to the river, then I agree, of course it's a shove.

i'd raise pre. Raise the flop 100% of the time as you did. Definitely bet the turn - that is the biggest mistake imo. You get loads of value from worse hands, protect your hand vs random pair plus small/medium clubs and you can define his range much better. By checking the turn, you really don't have a clue where you stand and are left guessing by the river as to whether he's bluffing or not.

As played, if I know villain is capable of doing this with air then i might find a call, but against an unknown its a fold for me. I disagree that there few AcX combos, I think he bets the flop with  ,  plus all nut flush draws. I agree with Dubai that ppl in live cash do tend to call quickly rather than tank call with the nut flush draw. But having said that, you said he was good and capable, unlike most live cash players, so that logic doesn't really apply.

Also, it's unwise to assume that his range is polarised to  or air. Vs an unknown he could be doing this with a small club to bluff you off a bigger one or using the classic thought process "I knew you didn't have the Ace" and bet this with the K or Q. Again if he's good this is less likely. But still possible that he is bluffing with the best hand. Also, don't be levelled by him rechecking his cards on the river. Good players do this as a level so I'd try to ignore that.

All in all, this is a fold imo.

Given all you have said it makes it a shove not a fold surely?

No, i said I disagree that there are few  AcX combos (ie. i think there are many). So he has the nuts here quite a lot. Even if he's bluffing in this spot 40% of the time it's still a fold. In live cash he doesnt need to risk 125bbs (or more) by making this gamble. He is basically just guessing and has no idea what frequency villain is bluffing/has the nuts. He can win 125bbs far easier in another spot because ppl put their money in dead so often.

i'd raise pre. Raise the flop 100% of the time as you did. Definitely bet the turn - that is the biggest mistake imo. You get loads of value from worse hands, protect your hand vs random pair plus small/medium clubs and you can define his range much better. By checking the turn, you really don't have a clue where you stand and are left guessing by the river as to whether he's bluffing or not.

As played, if I know villain is capable of doing this with air then i might find a call, but against an unknown its a fold for me. I disagree that there few AcX combos, I think he bets the flop with  ,  plus all nut flush draws. I agree with Dubai that ppl in live cash do tend to call quickly rather than tank call with the nut flush draw. But having said that, you said he was good and capable, unlike most live cash players, so that logic doesn't really apply.

Also, it's unwise to assume that his range is polarised to  or air. Vs an unknown he could be doing this with a small club to bluff you off a bigger one or using the classic thought process "I knew you didn't have the Ace" and bet this with the K or Q. Again if he's good this is less likely. But still possible that he is bluffing with the best hand. Also, don't be levelled by him rechecking his cards on the river. Good players do this as a level so I'd try to ignore that.

All in all, this is a fold imo.

Barring any major fuck ups I reckon its between Chris and Jamie. Liz and stella have both been way more quiet and it tends not to be the quiet ones that win it from the series' that I've seen

I dunno, last year Yasmina was pretty quiet until the final. Although most people thought Kate would win and she came 2nd. I think Stella is out of the running and that it is between Chris, Jamie and Liz.

Set up:
$30 freezout double stack on line, 230 runners, 8 players left. In terms of a chip stack I am in 6th position.
BB 3000k, SB 1500k, Antes 300

woah and you have 40k? with a 3000k BB? tough to win this one imo.
with 13bigs "speculative hands" have little or no value. you should never be calling preflop (though i have trouble folding these hands in tourneys cos im a donkey cash player)

so as said before, defo fold pre, i dont think shove, you have vlittle fold equity vs chip leader. as played id be check shoving this flop.

awful decision by sandeeeeesh there...