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14476  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: opinions on: November 15, 2010, 06:37:48 PM
30secs of diliberation? i hope this is because you were smashed, cos this is pretty much a snap call every day. you have the 2nd nut flush on a 4flush, paired board. no point in raising, and we're never folding vs someone that 11xs it pre with A8 then calls a 3bet (albeit a way too small 3bet) oop, then bets 25 into 160 on the turn with trips when there's 3clubs out.

The only other reason for not snapping it off is so you can high five the dealer first.
14477  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: opinions on: November 15, 2010, 06:32:57 PM
raiser checks(smelt fishy) - why?

sometimes checks do smell fishy
14478  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: opinions on: November 15, 2010, 06:32:07 PM
Have I read it right that he makes it over 11+ BB's to start with then you just over min-raise him?

jam pre
14479  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Pre flop raise sizing on: November 13, 2010, 06:35:09 AM
4225. i think over 5k and he thinks he has to make an 18k decision. make it 4100-4500 and he might peel wider and we can get our stack in on the turn. cbet 5.2k, shove ~9k on turn. im not a tourni player rele, just my initial thoughts...
14480  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Top two oop on flushing turn - line check pls on: November 09, 2010, 06:55:17 AM
Assuming you cover the guy with 300, seems like a pretty standard bet/fold

yup but how much to bet? im just 2nd guessing myself with this i kno its pretty standard. i bet £60 the guy flat called with  ...yes i had him covered
14481  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Top two oop on flushing turn - line check pls on: November 08, 2010, 05:12:28 PM
Check/call

seems to be locked up and ready to go home, but still calling raises with J3suited

Lol wtf are you talking about?

lol yeh doesnt make much sense does it?! Locked up as in he's not going to get involved in any big pots without a strong hand, but is still ultra fishy calling vwide pre. 

elaborate more on check /call pls.
14482  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Top two oop on flushing turn - line check pls on: November 08, 2010, 05:00:49 PM
£0.50 / £1 cash at Gala. On a very loose table I open   over one limper from EP to £8. Guy playing about £300 calls from cut off (who bought in for 50 and has run like god, seems to be locked up and ready to go home, but still calling raises with J3suited etc) . The limper calls.

  . limper checks, I bet £20 into £25. Villain calls, EP folds.

Turn  . Hero? I thought even though he has a flush here a lot, his range includes a bunch of worse hands that will call a bet here (Ax with a heart, KhJx, A9, A4, J9, QT with a heart). If i check and he bets, I have to decide whether he is betting a flush or betting A4, A9 thinking he's good. I decided to bet £35. He calls.

River is an offsuit 3 or something irrelevant. Line here?
14483  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Bet folding trips in DTD 6max -River line check pls on: November 08, 2010, 04:16:06 PM
the old weaktight guy replies. not a bad description for a guy whos only 44. ur too kind cambridgealex but the truth is u were bluffed off the pot with q9. plus u got the flop wrong it was 7 10 jack, id already decided what i was going to do on the river while u were playing the turn. i also notice that u forgot to mention about ur great play a few hands later when the blinds were 400/800 and it was the classic sb v bb situation and u looked across at my humble 10k stack with approx 27k sitting in front of you. u announce all in,( i really must check up on which book thats in) beleve me 2400 would of been more than enough for me to fold. then we got moved tables, pity really. especially a short time afterwards u were seen heading to the rail.

                                             regards the old guy

Does the old weaktight guy always refer to himself in the third person?

I don't know Jamie. I am obviously not a good judge of character. How does someone of this description a) find a bluff in that spot. and b) join an online forum to tell me about it! How bad to I run!? The intraweb is not just for us kidz apparently.

Maybe you can ask him yourself, he did join Blonde specifically to try and rinse me. (btw no-one has written a lovely "Welcome to Blonde" post yet...).

14484  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Bet folding trips in DTD 6max -River line check pls on: November 08, 2010, 03:57:12 PM
raise to 4x, if he shoves you know he has a pair and you can fold. ITS CALLED THE INFORMATION BET YO.

Is this with AK? cos i dont even think raising with AK is a good idea. Maybe to find out where I'm at. Might just call, try and see a cheap flop you know?
14485  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Bet folding trips in DTD 6max -River line check pls on: November 08, 2010, 03:55:33 PM
then we got moved tables, pity really. especially a short time afterwards u were seen heading to the rail.


fwiw this was level 2, and I bubbled at least 5 hours later (brag?).
14486  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Bet folding trips in DTD 6max -River line check pls on: November 08, 2010, 03:43:19 PM
lol just seen thiis - brillaint! cant believe I got bluffed - disaster. And also can't believe pushing 11.5 bbs sb v bb caused such offence! Actually I guess I can...

You young aggressive kids, you'll never understand. ITS JUST ACE HIGH!

tbf, AK is just ace high.
14487  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Bet folding trips in DTD 6max -River line check pls on: November 08, 2010, 03:33:32 PM
lol just seen thiis - brilliant! cant believe I got bluffed - disaster. And also can't believe pushing 11.5 bbs sb v bb caused such offence! Actually I guess I can...
14488  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD November Deepstack £100,000 Guaranteed on: November 07, 2010, 05:36:10 AM
great job again guys. GL JAMIE KAY! and Simon Deadman plus all blondes.
14489  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD November Deepstack £100,000 Guaranteed on: November 06, 2010, 07:37:10 PM
pic of jamie JK kay pls think 45 5. with awesome hoodie on. gold star if u can catch him playing a hand! thanks
14490  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Bet folding trips in DTD 6max -River line check pls on: November 04, 2010, 06:08:54 AM
From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

in all seriousness, really fold pre? 6max vs 3.25x. We are in small blind and can be pretty sure BB and limper will call too. 225 into pot of 325x3 + 100 = 1075. everyone with about 10k chips. Sure we're oop but I wouldn't ever fold suited connectors/ one gappers in this spot. Would you be folding 45s or 68s? is it because we're often dominated? JTs?

Ok. I gave each player a generous range and randomly selected a hand from that range for this example (franky's obv the tightest and BB the widest).

Hold'em Simulation ?
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Jd9d   21.31%   224,335   15,193
KhJc   21.07%   221,795   15,193
AsQs   33.05%   358,378   2,188
5s5c   24.57%   266,307   2,188

Given this exact example you have 21% equity and you're pot equity is 25% at current assuming BB is peeling. Then coupled with the potential for the BB to have limped to 3bet makes pre-flop too loose imo.

with only a 4% deficit pre flop you could justify a call if you're gonna win a big pot if make smash the flop.



But you see we flop suitable equity such a small % of the time, plus we have no reason to think we're gaurenteed to stack someone without really coolering them, as people are generally more cautious in multi-way pots.

I know this example is likely to change drastically with different cards but I pulled them at random and I think it gives a decent idea of the reasons why you will struggle to show a profit peeling OOP here.



end of discussion Wink
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