Maybe you're not 3betting light off 20-40bb? E.g. late position raise, making it 5.5bb on the button with KJo, 98s, A5s, Q8s and the like? Can be a nice way to chip up, without needing to commit all your stack? Can cbet 1/4 pot on a lot of textures so not risking too much, maximum leverage. Often people just call or fold these hands so miss out.

Defending bb wide enough? Have a look at some preflop charts? Apart from like T5o and worse, J4o and worse, 94o, 84o, 73o you can defend almost anything to a raise 2.2bb or less. Certainly any suited cards. Then learn to check raise more flops with good top pairs, gutshots, combo draws etc. This gives you other ways to win pots other than just passively hoping to make big hands.

I've been there too many times - just can't get that luck in that crucial period and bleed out - so much of it will be just variance, but there's a chance you're not playing aggressively enough also.

Good luck.

WILD session in the books. Flights to Vegas were about $400 Friday compared to $180 Saturday, which is probably what made me stay... I ended up playing one of the best public games I've ever played...It started so well, I can't even remember how but I was 8k up in no time and was feeling quite cheery when I made the classic error of telling Viktorija it was going well.

Then I played two of eventually four big pots with a young Japonese chap. First one was $15k QQ vs KK, I call the 4bet and xjam over a big cbet on 966fd. Unavoidable.

Second one I open to $100 in the cutoff, he 3bets the BTN to 300, a rec cold calls from the bb. I call. and the rec leads for 500, I call and Japan calls. and the rec checks. I have an interesting bet here - I can of course get called by worse in either spots, protect or get value vs draws and I can potentially bluff Japan off better on the river. I bet $1200 and only Japan calls.

River is and I feel this is a must bluff card. I have advantage in the 66/77/88/87 region already, and now 98/99/T9 region, plus I unblock clubs that autofold. Not saying he can't ever 3bet these hands, but certainly he's more overpair heavy than me and less likely to have these types of hands. Allin for $4.6k and he tank calls 99. Unfortunate - wasn't trying to get him to fold that.

So I'm -10k and I tell Viktorija again about our recent change in fortunes. I suppose it's quite funny how after 8 years of being together and 13 years playing professional poker, I'm still so invested in every session that I'm updating her how I'm doing multiple times per day She goes to sleep and wishes my luck turns around. I'm on my own now...

I rebuy 10 and get it up to 20 in one way or another. A hollywood film producer tried a wild bluff on me when I had top two was probably the highlight. Then the dream scenario.

The game has been kicked up to 20/40/80. Open $200 BTN, Japan 3bets $1050 from the SB, I call. Flop and he cbets $2400. Over pot flop cbet...kinky. I'll see it. Turn . Uh oh. I was set over setted for $20k pot a few days ago like this where the villain turns top set after I'd flopped it. He checks and I probably made a mistake with my sizing here but went for half pot, $3k. Pot was $6k and I had $17k back, I probably want to make it two even bets accross turn and river so around 80% 80%. He calls and the river is a nice and he checks, I shove $14k into $12k and he tanks for a verrrry long time. "I don't think I can fold this" is music to my ears, and he does indeed call and show Aces. Lovely stuff.

Then probably the wildest hand of the trip.

Every 30 mins we play a double board bomb pot where everyone puts in $100 and you get two cards each, and two flops are dealt and action starts after the button. If you reach a river showdown, half the pot is for each board. It's really hard to make good hands on both boards and it becomes a very tricky game of working out whether you want to PUSH (get people to fold so you scoop when you are only strong on one side) or PULL (have one side locked up, let's drag as many people along as possible). Sometimes you might flop a pair on both, which (unless the boards are very similar) will very rarely get scooped heads up, but can easily get scooped 3 ways. These are the trickiest spots where you check raise for example to try and get it heads up but get two callers.

Anyway like I said, very hard to have two big hands on both boards....

I have in the hole and the boards are
1)
2)



I'm cutoff and everyone checks to me. I felt like a check was good given the high likelihood everyone before me folds to a bet when I have all the nines...people tend to bet Ax themselves if they have it also. Probably should bet though, two many gutshots can ping on the turn on board 2. Good job my man Japan on the BTN takes a $100 stab into $800. One caller and now I begin the levelling war. Big checkraise to $1200. He calls other guy folds. Turns:

1)
2)

I check again. I felt he'd bet Ax 100%. My notes on this guy are simply "Overplays massively in bomb pots". So that's handy He bets only $600 into $3.3k. He's playing $13k ish. I have 3 options. 1) Raise to $4k and shove river for $9k. 2) Call and check shove river. 3) Allin now. I think 1 is fine, probably best theoretically. 2 is bad. Too likely he checks back river. I end up going for 3 against this specfic player because I thought he'd level himself into calling if he had Ace with a pair on the bottom board thinking that he can't be getting scooped. Make it look like I'm equity blasting him off one side. He hates folding when he thinks he can't be getting scooped. But maths wise he's calling about $13k to get half of $3.3k plus his $600 back, because he can never scoop vs any hand that I can be jamming. So $13k to get back $2.3. Very unattractive. He does call with (thinking that he only loses to 99, A9 or QQ) and we actually have to fade outs on both, but thankfully we do and from -10, we're now +35 which is pretty much where I end up.

I play 14 hours in total and the cherry on top is I get offered a free ride to Vegas tomorrow (today) from this hilarious Asian lady who was in the game. Buzzing! What a rollercoaster this trip has been so far!

So I'm about halfway through my 19 day trip to LA and it's been a real rollercoaster. Despite winning a tournament and 27k on hustler, I found myself in the red a few days later. A big win followed, then an equally big loss and I started today about even again and starting to think to myself "hmm tough gig these days".

I'm playing in very mediocre games. 10/20/40 with a lot of regs and the recs aren't bad either. I'm happy playing the games as I believe I have an edge over the regs, but I'm learning to shift my mindset in a few spots. For example, in soft games I can keep playing when stuck and playing my C game because it's still enough to win. In a mediocre game, any edge I had is surely negative on my C game.

I'm believing more and more in momentum and confidence flow. Nobody ever folds to my 3bets when I'm stuck but they fold a lot when I'm running hot. And in which situation do I 3bet more? When I'm stuck of course. Chasing. Wanting to play big pots. It's so dumb. Even recs pick up on it and start 4betting me I swear

I quit a game last night when I recognised this (though one buyin later than I should have probably). And as my strategies get more dialled in, I can actually more accurately pinpoint when I'm deviating from them and ask myself why. Do I have a good reason for 3betting this combo 100% instead of randomising? Is this a full frequency bluff or should I randomise x%? Why did I not consider turning this herocall into a bluff? With my shattered image, should I reign in the bluffs in this spot? Did I overbet because it's the correct play or because I got greedy because I'm stuck?

Anyway, I bounced back today with a nice win but game broke early and am thinking about heading to Vegas in search of greener pastures for the remainder of the trip. There's a juicy comp at the Wynn and me old pal Simon Deadman might let me play his private 100/100 game in Bobbys room...You read that right yes.

Click to see full-size image.

Only 29 runners, $1200 buyin. But I haven't had THAT feeling, since 2015. And how about that trophy eh?

Sample size can lead to all sorts of nonsense adjustments. I'm guilty of this for sure. I'll make big deviations from GTO based on a tiny sample. Not with regs so much, but I'll use my biases and experience to quickly label recs based on very few hands. Two walks in two orbits? Nit. 3bet me twice in a row? Nutter.

This can easily backfire, and can also lead to wrong adjustments. Here's a situation from the Commerce yesterday.

The only hand I saw this guy showdown was check calling a river bet in a smallish pot with a backdoorflush, beating the top pair the other player was value betting. I'd only seen the river action, but as a general rule, you don't need to know the rest of the action, if your opponent can be reasonably betting one pair for value, then a backdoor flush should be raised for value.

So what do I summise? This player is overly cautious, tight, perhaps scared money. This player is incapable of making standard value raises. These two statements sound like they go hand in hand. Easy adjustment - I'll fold a lot vs aggression from him. Right?

Well, maybe not.

I did this, had a hand very high up in my range, though absolutely only a bluff catcher, and folded quickly. The board was J95AK with no flush draw and I had AQ. One of his cards flipped as he mucked and it was a 7.

So maybe our read should've been "Incapable of making standard value raises, so could be inbalanced and overbluffing when he does raise" and until we had more information about his bluffing tendancies, don't adjust by overfolding. You can make money off his leak, but it could be by overcalling, and it could be by overfolding, we don't know yet. Or if he just doesn't checkraise enough period, then we make money by being able to valuebet thinner.

Just saw one of my most favourite poker hands ever. I won't spoil it in case Alex wants to talk us through it. (The one you nearly threw away on the flop)

<3 Sweet revenge for the bad beats he's put on me last few times What a runout (AJcc aip vs KK, K74 no club, T, Q)

Funny old game. You study hard, prepare well, get yourself in good games, good spots, play your best and lose.

Then you play badly in a bad game and win. Nuts

Real tough night, results aside. Was super card dead most of the night. Then when I did get a hand, the action often meant I should probably fold it, but I felt the pressure because of the stream, the vpip counter, the chat pros, the producer, the needling from the players etc. I messed up a few spots for sure.

I had 17% VPIP (I probably usually get 25-35%) and that was with 3betting J3s, K8s, squeezing T7s, 4betting A6s, 5betting AJs, 5betting AQo. It's about 125 hands of poker. Nonsense sample size. [ ] Chat pros get it.

@KarmaDope yes it may affect future invites. I dunno. It's really tough. The invites get less and less the more they figure out you're a good player. But maybe I played badly enough in the hands that I did play that they might overlook the vpip counter!

It's really tough to play super crazy in a big game, when you fly all this way for 3 weeks, and only get to play 1-3 times for 5 hours each. I wish I could play like some of the other pros that were there, that get to play all year round, super comfortable with the stakes. But when any large pot has a large bearing on how my trip goes, and I am planning 4 trips a year, it's not conducive to playing good poker - at least it wasn't last night. I made two really tight folds in the last half an hour to book the win, which isn't like me, but I've been on such a horrendous run it got to me.

And when I do that, I know it's bad, and you see all the comments in the chat, it's not nice. Nights like that actually make me question whether I'll ever feel at home in a high stakes environment.

I'll go easy on myself and cheer up - like I said, plenty of good play poor results lately, so will take it on the chin and move on. Will be playing 10/20/40 in the commerce every day unless I get another stream invite. And also playing the LAPC and the odd side event maybe. Should I do a staking thread on blonde for old times sake?! Would like to give lots of people small sweats.

Sorry been so crap with updates lately. There’s actually been no poker since Cyprus. I didn’t go to Paris in the end. Brownie points at home with mrs birthday, valentines etc - was the right play I think!

Just landed in LA though and am playing the hustler stream tonight. 25/50/100 win the button.
 https://www.youtube.com/live/vqIJaioNm_M

Let’s do a win

I'm navigating tricky waters at home these days. We're in somewhat unfamiliar territory with Daniel being in school now and me having to travel to play poker. So I'm trying to strike the right balance of time at home and actually making a living. If I'm away working between 1/4 and 1/3 of the year, by my calcs, in terms of EV, we'll cover our expenses (obviously with huge variance) and that is what Viktorija is happy with - maintaining rather than growing. The greedy side of me wants to do better than breakeven, but I do hate missing moments with Daniel and if I really asked myself what's important to me in life, then that would be it.

With that in mind, I came home a day early from Cyprus and surprised them both which was lovely.

I enjoyed the trip. The cash games got worse if anything, but I quite enjoyed the battle of playing tough high stakes games and testing myself. It's rewarding to be able to put into practice the work I've been doing, since in soft field tournaments, I'm often playing largely exploitatively.

Two hands defined the trip.

First one was from the $3k main event, day two and I've got about 270k to start the hand with from 100k starting stack. Blinds are 2k/3.5k

Cutoff opens to 8k and Btn 3bets to 23k. Both are recreationals and playing way too many hands. Btn dubbed himself "The best rebuyer in Kuwait". You'll see why...

I have in the small blind. Really dicey spot. Could argue for all three options against these two, but in the end I came up with 4bet to 62k. Only my man from Kuwait on the button calls.

and I check it over to KW. He bets 75k. OK...rather large sizing. I'm calling and calling allin on almost every turn I think.

. Definitely calling on this one. Check, Allin, Call. Oh I have one out...He turns over !

Better luck on cash...

I was sat on the left of a very active Asian reg for 2 sessions in a row and he's the only reg that opens for 3.5x when everyone else is min or 2.5x. In this rake structure in a tough game, I'm 3bet or folding vs an open, esp a bigger open - so we had a dynamic and had played dozens of 3bet pots together over 2 days which is pretty unusual in live poker.

He opens BTN $175 and I 3bet SB $950 with , he calls, we are about $10k effective.

I bet $500 and he calls

I check, he bets $1700 I call

I check he bets $6k and I call, he mucks.

This pot was on my last night and in the last hour - and got me out of the hole for the trip. It was huge morale. Writing it down now it doesn't seem that interesting a hand, but it was a key moment and I was really happy to get the decision correct and as I said, it was the difference between a small win and a -5figure losing trip.

4 days at home now and then Paris for another short trip.

I landed in Cyprus yesterday. It's quite the setup here - they send a car for you from the airport from the Southern side Larnaca, taking you to this incredible 5 star all inclusive resort on the Northern side, ALL paid for - IF you play an average of 6 hours cash per day.

I managed that no problem yesterday, only cost me $8k - awesome!

The rake is very high (3% capped at $300) and from what I saw yesterday, the quality of the games does NOT make up for that - but early days...It's an interesting business model.

I was play 25/50 and was winning 14k right off the bat with three skillfully played Aces, AK and K high flush.

Unfortunately I lost every hand for the following 6 hours, without doing too much wrong I don't think. These days, mistakes don't come from blunders too often, but letting my frequencies get out of line. For example, if I'm supposed to squeeze a weaker hand like infrequently, say <25% of the time - I find if I'm tilted I'll find a reason to make that 100%.

This tendancy exacerbates the already present notion that if you're losing - as your opponents will be winning, they'll be feeling confident in their decisions, you'll look like you're chasing, tilted, you've turned over a few bluffs, or made a few bad calls etc.

The opposite is true when you're winning - you're more intimidating to play against if you're winning every hand, turning over nuts after nuts, your opponents are more inclinded to stay out of your way generally.

Something to keep a check on. Also, in high raked full ring tables, you're supposed to play absurdly tight preflop which I could probably improve on. Apparently you can't defend your bb with ATo / Q9s, KJo vs UTG 2.5x anymore!

I'll play the $3k main event tomorrow I expect.

Good to play with you Alex, glad to see the diary back.

You too mate. How did you get on in the 6max?

Thanks Ray, great to hear from you. I remember good times together in Marbella 2011! Do you still play yourself?

I'm not sure whether it's soothing to know it may all be variance, or frightening to know it could go on for a good while yet!

Hence my plan to balance out tournaments this year with as much cash as I can during the tournament stops, and play less side events.

Actually I may have understated things, I forgot that I actually did pretty well on winamax back when Brits were allowed to feast on the froggies

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If it turns out that I am in fact a winning player, then disregard everything I said about variance and I'll put online crusher in my twitter bio.

Well played Alex, keep it up.

I have a question if I may, you said you've never been a winner online, why do you think that is.

So the answer could plausibly be simply variance.

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Excluding the HU sng stretch at the beginning, I've played around 2500 tournaments lifetime on stars which is the volume a fulltime player might put in in a year. Top players have downswings way bigger and longer than this. I actually won on other sites like winamax and stars.es but lost on partypoker, GG, stars.fr - all quite small volume back in the day. I've never played any serious volume at cash. If I had a 10% ROI, my chance of losing over a 2500 sample of tournaments is 31%.

However, I won't cop out of the question like that...

I basically have never focussed on playing online. It was a side hustle alongside my live volume playing sundays, scoop, wcoop etc from 2011 to 2015 - and then literally 6 years off until May 2022 I played scoop again. So when I did play, I was likely not a winning player in the fields. Looking back, it was complacent to just think I could show up and apply my live game to online, go on autopilot, think that my exploits that I'd learned playing live were appropriate and my fundamentals sufficient for online. They almost definitely weren't. I never properly studied, I never got coaching - I just hoped that I was good enough and the sample size and variance masked the fact that I wasn't.

It was a reality check coming back from covid and playing EPT Prague in March of last year - boy did I feel out of my depth. Everyone had gotten way better, having already been better than me to begin with...Now I feel competitive in $100-$200 online fields, and €5k european fields, $10k US fields.

I still don't have any interest in battling the variance of online tournaments, for <10% ROIs, with possibilities of ghosting, RTA, stable collusion etc. I will probably dabble in scoop and wcoop again this year though depending on my schedule

I have been attempting to dust off my £11k 4th place cash by busting 5 tournaments since then - 2700*2 + 560*3. Got really close in the main event last night - after a lightning start, all my moves stopped working and then I fell card dead at the wrong time and succumbed once again to the unstopabble force that is Waheed Ashraf, 8 off the money.

I've been sitting down on a 2/5 game after each day to wind down a bit - and even though I know I can't play my A game at those stakes, especially after 6-10 hours of tournament play (especially especially directly after a near bubble) - I enjoy playing so much in that moment. I'm thriving playing 300-500bb poker vs people typically shot-taking. Obviously I play way too many hands and too aggressive but it seems to be working, and I've got a good sense of when to apply the brakes.

It helps when you hit miracle gutshots, also.

So tournament buyins all reclaimed now - we have one more event the £1k 6max today, but we've locked in a £10k minimum winning trip - which is a nice start to the year.