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1  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: What are the odds ? on: August 14, 2013, 08:14:55 PM
Right then,

The odds of being dealt a pocket pair is 17:1

I can't quite decide what the calculation should be for the odds of two players being dealt a pocket pair, but have found a calculation for a 6 handed table (this was 7 handed), so am going to use that.

0 players dealt a pair is simply:
(16/17)^6 = 0.6951 for 6-handed
and
(16/17)^9 = 0.5795 for 9-handed

1 player dealt a pair is:
6*(1/17)*(16/17)^5 = 0.2606 for 6-handed
and
9*(1/17)*(16/17)^8 = 0.3296 for 9-handed

So 2 or more people being dealt a pair will roughly be:
1 - 0.6951 - 0.2606 = 0.0443 for 6-handed (1 in every 22.6 deals)
and
1 - 0.5795 - 0.3296 = 0.0909 for 9-handed (1 in every 11.0 deals)



So, the odds of two players getting dealt a pocket pair is 22:1

The odds of a third player then being dealt one each of those pocket pair cards is 564:1 (2/48 x 2/47)

And finally, the odds of the remaining case pocket pair cards being flopped is 15,180:1 (91,080 combinations of 46 cards being flopped, with 6 combinations of the two case cards being flopped)

Which would make the total odds 22 x 564 x 15,180 : 1 or 188,353,440 : 1


Seems a big number.  Have I missed something obvious ?  (Should I be ignoring the first odds, as the probabilty of the second and third part are already based on the first bit having happened ?)

My head is hurting here trying to work it out and i don't think i'm capable of doing the maths. However I think there are lots of permutations that bring the odds down of it happening.

Things like
 
Fiive players are dealt pocket pairs then that gives x number of 2 card combinations which could then show up on the flop.

so AA,KK,QQ,JJ,1010 would give ak aq aj a10 kq kj k10 qj q10 j10 then flops containing 2 of AKQJ10

I could just be sprouting shite for all i know though
2  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Liverpool FC on: August 01, 2013, 02:35:17 PM
Think 6 goals and 10 assists would be considered a good season for him.
3  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: 2013/14 Ashes thread on: July 11, 2013, 12:47:07 PM
I was reading Cricinfos piece on him this morning which seemed to suggest he was a capable batsman. It's as if the Australian coaching team were unaware of his batting capabilities.
4  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Bigger $11, QQ on the BB, readless on: June 05, 2013, 08:08:11 AM
It's the big 11 against an unknown just go all in on the river. We get so many hero calls from recs is unreal.
5  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Oh what to do, what to do; a social and moral dilemma thread on: June 05, 2013, 01:21:06 AM
This is an obvious case of letting the woman keep the seat. However when the ticket inspector comes around point out that your standing because there is a pregnant woman in your reserved seat. If you catch them on a good day chance you might get a nice little upgrade to first and away from the riff raff.
6  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Ante-up tourneys on: June 01, 2013, 06:12:17 AM
Quote
Do you just add up the antes and chop them up into blinds and work from there? Is that a poor strategy or a good place to start?

You can get away with opening a lot smaller relative to the pot. It's in your interest to keep blind steals as small as possible so don't go around and over complicate things. The majority of players who play these are generally playing for fun and are not high level thinkers. Keep it simple and just try and win as many as possible for as cheap as possible.

7  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: The Best In The Business on: June 01, 2013, 05:59:57 AM
Quote
So from the videos I basically see the EDL walking around, very calmy with some pretty silly yet harmless chants like "God save the Queen" "Who's streets? Our Streets" and "En-ger-lannnnnd" of course there was probably some "Allah Allah, who the fuck is Allah" and "Allah is a pedo" both of which I condemn but on the whole I would say 7000, mostly working class men, mostly intoxicated on a bank holiday acted very well and respectful. The leaders of the EDL both gave 20 minutes speeches and people listened and tried to educate themselves.

Did you happen to miss the Nazi salute that the guy did in the Video at about 1:12 or the fact that the EDL section of the march was a long distance away?

I've been living out of the UK for the last 4 years and all this stuff really intrigues me. FWIW I grew up in Bradford in the 90's and which was a city that experienced its own problems during that time. When it comes to organisations like the EDL, BNP etc.. I agree with a large amount of what they are standing up for. I believe that if you want to live in Britain, have the right to the passport and benefit the well fare state then you have to respect the country itself. However that is something that isn't discriminatory on race, religion or sexuality.

The problem with the EDL/BNP when talking about the Lee Rigby incident is that it isn't Muslim extremists its Muslims. It's labelling incorrectly an entire religion with the terrible actions of a few. My views of the EDL are that the majority of members are actually able to distinguish between a British loving Muslim and an extremist. The problem lies in the small portion that are fucking numpties. The ones who chant abusive songs about Allah and do Nazi salutes. It's these views that people think of when talking about the EDL.

The most ironic thing about all this stuff is most of the pissed up EDL march members probably went and got a Ruby/Doner Kebab after the march had ended.
8  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: MTT Strategy - Limping the Button 15-25BB eff. on: May 30, 2013, 11:25:17 PM
Quote
I'm confused about your other point. I've looked at this effective stack size for this post because the decisions people make with or vs 15-25bb have become pretty robotic and limping could be a way of taking a player out of their comfort zone. You can apply it if you have 100bb and the BB has 21bb or vice versa. I'm not really sure what difference it makes to the theory aside from a 100bb stack might play against us with a big stack metality (is this what you mean?). Even so we can anticipate this and have plenty of limp/jams waiting for them.

Lets assume we have 18bb on the button and we play four hands against the same player. In the hands he has 18bb, 30bb, 50bb and 1000bb. In all four hands the only thing that is constant is we have an effective stack of 18bb. But out approach and optimal line against each stack could and should be different. I think ignoring effective stacks and looking at % of stack should be the way to go.

I agree that 2nd hand is probably not a bad spot to limp. The reasons are is we have a playable hand 3 handed when we are already in the money this taking away most of the subtleties from the spot you suggested because we are already in the decent money places.
9  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: MTT Strategy - Limping the Button 15-25BB eff. on: May 30, 2013, 10:16:41 PM
I don't think this is a good example.

There is 18000 in the middle preflop lets just Jam and add 10% to our stack.

Another point is all this effective stack size stuff that is being talked about is so misused at the moment when it comes to tournaments. Yeah we might have 18Bigs on the button but against a BB who has 18bb, 28bb, 40bb or 100bb our  effective stacks are still 18BB but each of those stack sizes create a different dynamic to how the hand should be played out best.
10  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 2 quick hands on: May 27, 2013, 04:56:19 PM
Bet more on the flop in hand 2 something like 2/3 pot. If we are called we are going to be barreling the turn, so we might as well just use all our bluffing chips in one go. Betting bigger also widens our range to include more value hands where as smaller narrows it down to the absolute top and bluffs. 
11  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Scoop -31 Low on: May 25, 2013, 11:35:36 AM
How can you be readless looking at that players OPR? Villain has had a Pokerstars account for 6 years averaging less than 50 MTT a year. Looking at his cashes he seems to only play big buyin MTT's with no particularly deep runs. He is a rec fish who obviously has no real passion or knowledge of the game hence why hes played 300 tournaments lifetime.

You could also have got reads from players location to work out what timezone they were in and if there was a possibility of drunkenness/national stereotyping.
.
12  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: preflop spot on: May 17, 2013, 03:34:18 AM
buyin and speed of tournament is hugely relevant here
13  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: peeling oop in mtts on: May 16, 2013, 03:56:49 AM
Why are people so hesitant to play flops. Just flick it in

Surely its better to peel our weaker holdings such as suited connectors than stuff like A10, AQ etc..
14  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 99 facing Trigg's 3bet. on: April 21, 2013, 06:05:49 AM
never fold call and play some streets.
15  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 23, 2013, 06:17:18 PM
Broad, Finn and Anderson all have 9 wickets in the series with possibly no more bowling to come.

don't NZ have to bat again?
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