Was more to do with the x-factor bit. First website I'd spotted it on today.

Think Ennis Benefits from it as she fits the X-factor viewing demographic.  Can't imagine Hoy or Wiggins coming out saying that there perfect Saturday night entertainment is a night in infront of the telly watching the show. Farah lives in the US so can imagine him being the same. Ennis on the other hand I can see saying she likes nothing more than listening to Bieber, One Direction and Take That.

X-Factor live final and SPOTY are happening around the same time.

Last year Cav won with 50% of the vote and got 160k. I'm guessing X-factor voting numbers are ten times that. You have Simon Cowell who is obsessed with winning and having no scruples in exploiting fame. Out of the four Ennis seems the most likely to fill the Cowell mold of someone that he could make millions from. It wouldn't surprise me if we end up seeing an Olympic Athlete charity song be Xmas number one this year after seeing this announcement. I think Simon Cowell is also probably the only person in the UK who would actually be able to manipulate the British public to vote for who he wants to win. I think of the four he's most likely to favour Ennis.

Oh my word! Some SPOTY stuff for you here. The article below is interesting but the main article isn't really relevant.  Hidden away is a small story that Simon Cowell is going to be cashing in on the Olympic feel good. He is doing an X-factor special with four guest mentors. Those being Wiggins, Hoy, Ennis and Farah.

This could be a huge gamechanger. Now contenders for SPOTY are going to have X-factor mania/fans/and the twitter followers of the judges supporting them. Everyone loves Jessica Ennis. I also think shes the one most likely to stay involved after there episode.   

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2190741/Olympic-gold-guarantee-gong-Winning-athletes-warned-really-counts.html

I think we (myself included) assumed Mo had seeped into the consciousness of the Premier League footballer...possibly not, too busy in Nandos, watching BB, TOWIE and CBB.....possibly.

That and it would need to be a British player rather than a foreigner which reduces the field further.

Think if Balotelli had scored he might have done it.

How in the world is Ennis at 12s for SPOTY? This is a huge overeaction to MO winning Gold. Before the Olympics both Ennis and Farah were priced if they both won there respective Gold medals. Nothing in that regard has changed. 

The amount of exposure Jessica Ennis is going to get over the next 4 months is just going to be ridiculous. Can see there prices being reversed on the night.

My locks for the list are

Wiggins
Ennis
Farah
Murray
Ainslie
Hoy

Probably on

Grainger
Pendleton
Adams

Last spot

Brownlee

When I was looking at the womens bet in the first place I thought that there being fewer viable female candidates would mean that the votes would be concentrated more on the athletes that did well. However there have been so many strong female athletic performances that I think this hinders the bet. 

could you explain this please?

the final 10 is derived from amalgamating lists from a panel of journalists across the country, mainly regional papers, some nationals

Whilst votes in the final 10 from the public on the night might be affected by split votes in certain sports and across the female candidates, I am not sure how having a lot of female contenders for that shortlist hinders the bet.

Ta

I hope this doesn't come across as useless babble if so I apologies.  

From my point of view the six names I gave are 99% certain nominations and are going to appear on most ballots. It isn't just the Gold medals they have won its also there past achievements.

So that leaves 4 spots up for grabs. The reason I liked the women bet in the first place was that I thought that there wouldn't be such a strong showing by Women athletes at these games. Which would concentrate the votes on people like Pendleton, Grainger, female swimmer etc.. Now with there being so many successful female athletes the female vote gets split among them. Leaving people like Brownlee, Rutherford, Weir to sneak in.

My locks for the list are

Wiggins
Ennis
Farah
Murray
Ainslie
Hoy

Probably on

Grainger
Pendleton
Adams

Last spot

Brownlee

When I was looking at the womens bet in the first place I thought that there being fewer viable female candidates would mean that the votes would be concentrated more on the athletes that did well. However there have been so many strong female athletic performances that I think this hinders the bet. 

Was just having a think about the T & C in the Insurance. From looking at the FCO website it only advises against parts in certain areas of Columbia not to travel to the country itself.

Columbia has the same warnings as Thailand and the Philippines so I think the clause is more for countries like Syria which the FCO Advises against all travel.

[never]

Yeah it's really competitive so I still think having a 1/4 shot in there is pretty crazy.  A bit more food for thought on the gymnast front:

• GB have never won a gold medal in gymnastics
• Tweddle has won everything going except an Olympic medal (so ticks the recent "lifetime achievement" box)
• British public generally loves gymnastics - not got stats to back that up, but would imagine TV figures are up there

Shame the bookies have got a bit tight with their e/w terms really.  I actually did her each way a few years back when she got 3rd in SPOTY before, but was a much weaker year.

Louis Smith lost Gold on a tie-break plus a team medal. I think the more GB golds the more chance he has of being a surprise nomination. Unless Tweddle wins a gold that is.  

Fancy the Lochte double which firms will lay you tonight even tho its arguably a related contingency bet.

Think the fact he has to do two finals in 30mins is the reason why.

Are you planning on people being able to auction off online action?

For someone who rarely posts but is a keen reader just like to post my observations.

The problem with unannounced reserves (prices and percentages) is that a seller could potentially be using it as a tool to manipulate the market.

Example

Player A wants to play X tournament. Player A can only afford 20% of the buyin. He starts an auction stating that he wants to sell 20% of his action with a caveat that he has a reserve and potentially will open more.

Player A is likeable and has an ok HM and OPR. People decided to bid on the 20%. The 20% goes quite comfortably then all of a sudden a bidding war kicks in for people trying to get a %. If the bidding halts before he is able to manipulate a price and percentage so he gets the 80% to make his buyin. He closes the auction says thanks alot guys look forward to winning the world blah blah blah. Day of the tournament and he falls asleep at his computer or there was a juicy cash game going on so he swerved the tourney. No one is the wiser.

Or when he reaches the point where he can afford to buying he's able to say reserve kicked in decided to open some more up, you all believed in me so much blah blah blah.         

 

I posted earlier about women in the top 10 bet with Ladbrokes.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/total-women-on-top-10-shortlist

Think there is good value in 5 at 10-1. Done a bit more looking into it and last year Kerri Ann Payne was two votes short and Addlington one to get onto the list.

So with that I can see there being 4 decent shouts now for women with alot of potential others for that +1.

Ennis
Addlington
Payne
Pendleton (Other British female cyclist)
+ one more

There also appears to be some Chris Hoy at @150 on Betfair. He has a chance to become Britain most successful Olympian ever during these games. If he does then he has to make the shortlist with a chance of a shock victory.

I'd also get on Kerri-Ann Payne to win @610 on Betfair. She is also somewhat of a media darling. Competing in the womens swimming 10k. If she makes the shortlist and Addlington doesn't there will be lots of focus on her. She is also quite active on twitter which could have a massive impact on her winning.

I think the market has over reacted massively to Wiggins. Would lay him now then would lay him some more if team GB win the men's road race on Saturday. Think there are some other huge priced people in the market but think those two have massive scope. 

I think Becks in the past few months has come out and said that he won't be the person to actual light the Flame that it deserves to be an Olympian. I can't imagine the selection committee giving it to Becks and I can't imagine Becks doing it even if asked as it would be a PR nightmare.

Have you thought about getting a Co-Manager(s)?

Our team had 3 all who's kids played on our team. None of them got special treatment in terms of selection or punishment. But the times that they put in a bad performance, did something wrong or felt unduly subjected to criticism one of the other manager dads were able to go over and explain the decision.

  

A few other female swimmers are in with a decent shout of gold if Rebecca Adlington falters. Keri-Anne Payne the best bet.

As with Pendleton, that is relevant. We aren't likely to see two female cyclists or two female swimmers, unless something really dramatic happens (gold with a WR or two golds).

You have to expect a bit of an extra performance at home, too, so an extra surprise medal (with X-Factor style story "I'm doing this for my sick uncle's goldfish, who taught me to ride a bike") could see an entry no one expected in the shortlist. This makespicking someone who might not get in on personality alone (as...ahem...Ennis might) a dangerous game.

The bet works because we aren't choosing the four women, of course, just how many of them there will be.

 In 2008 there were two female cyclists nominated Rebecca Romero and Nicole Cooke.