Ennis
Pendelton
Adlington

Certainties

Before we get carried away, Pendelton isn't even favourite for Gold.  Surely she isn't ever getting in the list without a Gold if we are forecast for 20 or 30 in total.  Ennis is only slight odds on etc.  

Will happily lay 2 or less of the 3 certainties above.

Not knocking the bet, just some of the thinking

But a British female gold winning cyclist will be.

Ennis
Pendelton
Adlington

Certainties


Tweddle
Simmonds

Possibilities

Unknown Olympic Medallist female (Perri Shakes Drayton?)

Maybe


Is there not an over/under bet on say 4 that is more of a good thing than having to get the exact number of nominees?

No only Laddies have this market.

Names that are in the betting are Fran Hansall, laura trott, Kerri Ann Payne.

With the voting there are only 30 journalists nominating. I think you have 4 certainties with the men in Wiggins, Murray, Ainslie and Farah.

That means there are 3 spots left. I think there are a lot of male athletes that could take a nomination away from another male athlete. I can't imagine there being a ballot that contains Wiggins, Kenny and Cavendish its going to be either Kenny or Cavendish thus taking a vote away from a another male athlete.

I think the smaller pool of potential female candidates is going to help.  

Like this one bertpup, certainly worse 10/1 shots around. Go on, put up a suggested bet amount imo...

I've just had a look back to 2008 SPOTY awards shortlist and there were 4 women on it out of 7 Olympians the others were Lewis Hamilton, Calzaghe and Murray.

Bet size I would suggest as much as possible but as its my first offering. £75 on 4 £10 on 5

The more I think about it the more appealing 5 looks. Sack it all on 5 and put a saver on 4th.

Like this one bertpup, certainly worse 10/1 shots around. Go on, put up a suggested bet amount imo...

I've just had a look back to 2008 SPOTY awards shortlist and there were 4 women on it out of 7 Olympians the others were Lewis Hamilton, Calzaghe and Murray.

Bet size I would suggest as much as possible but as its my first offering. £75 on 4 £10 on 5

Not giving an opinion on the numbers, need to have a think on that BUT...remember the whoo-haaa when all the sports journalists put in all male panels last year? (manchester Evening News including Giggs and Scoles too, for example)

I think there maybe a "PR" bias towards more women friendly lists come this October, too

Yeah forgot to put that bit in which leans towards a female Paralympian being selected.

Sports personality of the year award betting again.

Ladbrokes are the only bookies with a market on total women shortlisted but think they have there book badly set.

The odds are as follows

0 -20/1
1- 6/1
2- 5/2
3- 2/1
4- 3/1
5- 10/1
6 20/1

From looking at the markets and thinking about the current crop of female sports people I think there is going to be at least 3 women on the shortlist. I would say at the moment the likely list is going to look something along the lines of.

1)Bradley wiggins
2)Andy Murray
3)Ben Ainslie
4)Mo Farah
5)Jessica Ennis
6)Rebecca Addlington (or other female gold medal swimmer)
7)Victoria Pendleton (or other female cyclist gold medalist)
8)Paralymian (Ellie Simmonds or David Weir)

Then the other two places up for grabs I think could be Possible cricketer, Possible golfer, Alastair Brownlee, Gold medal winning Tom daley, Gold medal winning Dai Green,   Chris Hoy/Cavendish, another Paralympian, Medal winning Beth Tweddle, female gold medal swimmer. 

I'm pretty confident of the top 7 names . I think there is a good chance of Ennis and Ainslie making the list even if they don't win gold and end up with Silver.

I think a big bet on 4 women being shortlisted with a cheeky saver on 5 would represent a decent value shout.   

looks like that £5 at 320 has been taken/removed. £3 @ 310 still probably worth a Banzai

[£5 Ellie Simmonds to win BBC sports personality of the year 2012 @ 320 on Betfair.]

Can  I offer up a cheeky little Banzai suggestion here. Been looking at the sports personality of the year award betting and been looking at various top 3 and winner combinations. In the process I think I have found a potential little gem.

My suggestion is £5 Ellie Simmonds to win BBC sports personality of the year 2012 @ 320 on Betfair.

As you know the Sports personality of the year award shortlist is created from nominations from respected sports writers. Last yeah there was a big uproar when the shortlist was all men.  I think most sport writers are going to be conscious of the reaction to that. I think with it being a London Olympics the BBC  are going to be crucified if there are no Paralympic athletes on the shortlists.

Reasons why she is going to be shortlisted

Current face of the Paralypics
Competing in multiple events
Media darling
Is a Paralympian
Is a Female

I think she has a very good chance of being a Ryan Giggs type winner. All it needs is someone like Chris Evans on his radio show or Piers Morgan on twitter to start a #elliespoty2012 campaign before everyone else joins in.

[Reports were that no one who was likely to start excluding Joe Hart would be going there as the journey could take a physical toll on the players.]

To add balance in the Carroll/Welbeck debate

Seven players joined Hodgson on the 70km journey from their tournament base in Krakow. Wayne Rooney and Andy Carroll, Theo Walcott and Phil Jagielka, Joe Hart, Jack Butland and Leighton Baines.
With them was FA chairman David Bernstein and other officials. The players went in casual wear after consultation with the sports science and medical team, who wanted them in comfortable outfits ahead of Monday's opening game.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/euro2012/article-2156476/Euro-2012-England-players-visit-Auschwitz-Oskar-Schindler-Factory-museum.html#ixzz1xGP15OWL

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/euro2012/article-2156627/Euro-2012-Englands-Danny-Welbeck-start-France.html

Carroll went to Auschwitz yesterday as well. Reports were that no one who was likely to start excluding Joe Hart would be going there as the journey could take a physical toll on the players.I

 think its going to be Welbeck...

Sorry ....thats just ridiculous logic !

I know i'm quoting the daily fail here but Martin Samuels and Matt Lawton both said about no starting team players were likely to go except Joe Hart.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/euro2012/article-2156476/Euro-2012-England-players-visit-Auschwitz-Oskar-Schindler-Factory-museum.html

In this article Lawton says

Walking between the bleak, brown brick buildings at Auschwitz on Friday, I took the opportunity to tell Hodgson about his predecessor.
'I didn't know that,' said England's manager. 'Shocking. Really shocking.'


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/euro2012/article-2156476/Euro-2012-England-players-visit-Auschwitz-Oskar-Schindler-Factory-museum.html#ixzz1xGNvwbwI

So he was with the England Manager the day before. Then the next day publishes news about Welbeck starting.

To add balance in the Carroll/Welbeck debate

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/euro2012/article-2156627/Euro-2012-Englands-Danny-Welbeck-start-France.html

Carroll went to Auschwitz yesterday as well. Reports were that no one who was likely to start excluding Joe Hart would be going there as the journey could take a physical toll on the players.

I think its going to be Welbeck...

If there is any sort of top 3 market or e/w available then cavendish is absolutley massive. Out of that list i would make him 3rd fav behind button and Haye.

The BBC love cycling, they love promoting it and more importantly hes going to have golden boy Chris Hoy saying how great amazing he is. The BBC will also probably get Redgrave weighing in about how good Cav was.

Jessica Ennis being 2nd fav thats rubbish. She might get a few votes because shes sexy but there will be too little focus on her to actually get votes. She didnt break a world record and it was hardly a strong field. The athletics section has to cover her, Idowu, Usain Bolt and that silly Berlin mascot oh and not forgetting how it wasn't Paula's year again.

Strauss has no chance, yes we won the ashes. But it was hardly a breath taking series. Oh and hes not Andrew Flintoff. 

Ryan Giggs seriously? Calls from the far east are too expensive I'd get more votes than him.

Beth Tweddle- Not as good looking as Ennis and has a slightly amusing surname.

Haye- has a v good chance of winning it, but it all depends on the BBC. If we are told that he beat a giant with a damaged hand might have a chance. But knowing the BBC i'm guessing they are going to question the quality of opponent and say it wasn't anything very special.

Murray- zero chance

Tom Daley - He will never in his lifetime win it, unless he starts cycling or rowing in time for 2012.

Button- Yeah hes a big fav especially since the beeb got F1 back. But people don't always vote for the fav because they thing others will.

I make top 3 Button/Cavendish/haye

Im going to try and get all over Cavendish like a big old rash.

he never ever ever ever has k2 in this spot or 22..............my read was perfect for him to not have any of theese hands and i put my whole stack in cos if i win the pot i win the tourny

Maybe want to ask  how Nano got himself a 33k stack by level 6 of a $22 Omaha MTT on stars.

Hes either Very good at stacking donks who overplay AA or occasionally overcalls with hands containing K2 or 22

If people look at my activity on OPR/Sharkscope you can see its been pretty active for the past few months- stars username is Bertmobile

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