I grabbed a sample of 20k flat turf runners - 1083 races all 16+ runner handicaps.  I thought that the amended terms would generally be worse for punters, but that isn't really the case.

First the actual place return if backing all 20k horses at SP

1/4 4 19336
1/5 5 20850
1/6 6 22479
1/7 7 24007

obviously this sample has some 16 runner races, so 1/7, 7 places in those cases is not really something that would be offered very often.....

The return of stake when a horse places is the main advantage - 1/3 odds 3 places only returns 17629!  When you consider though that the less places bet is actually getting "nearer" to a win bet with a huge book %*, it makes sense.

I theorised that more places meant that the edge moved from shorter priced horses to longer ones, but again that isn't the case

less than 10-1 shots 4334 runners place

1/4 4 etc
4373
4645
4792
4906

So once again the return improves even with short prices.

*The win return at SP is a horrific 12865 for 20k staked!  So the most important lesson from all this is, simply take the best early price you can get

Thanks for posting this, brilliant research.
Always been confident that 1/4 4 is not better than 1/5 5 in general.

Just goes to show that those that write with the most confidence or authority can actually be wrong sometimes.

[Taking a fifth first 5 vs quarter first 4 means you lose 20% on your win bet and your bet on the first 4 places and in return get an extra place at 2/1 that has something like a 1 in 20 chance of coming in]

Is 1/7 7 places much worse than 1/4 4 or 1/5 5 places?  I doubt there will be much in it.

In a 20 runner race, say the typical odds for an each way bet are going to be around 10/1.

Taking a fifth first 5 vs quarter first 4 means you lose 20% on your win bet and your bet on the first 4 places and in return get an extra place at 2/1 that has something like a 1 in 20 chance of coming in. 

I worked it out a while ago, and I think a typical each way bet at a fifth first 5 is only worth about 90% of one at quarter first 4.  If you get a true 20/1 chance at 20/1 in a 20 runner race there is nothing much in it, hence why I said you need to get big priced each way horses.  But even then you need to get a big priced horse close to betfar prices and that is rarely possible, as 80/1 chances on betfair are way more likely to be priced at 33/1 than 80/1.

I haven't worked out seventh first 7, but I'd be enormously shocked if the maths gets reversed, so I think it is safe to assume that quarter first 4 is better than fifth first 5 (and significantly better than 1/7th first 7).  You could possibly find something at a big price which plods along and has a good chance of finishing in the top 7 and get some value, but most punters are going to get screwed over by him.    You can pretty much tell that a fifth first 5 is worse just by looking at the bookies that offer it.

I'll just say that I think bookies can offer whatever terms they like, but they shouldn't be misleading and put something up as a special offer that clearly isn't.  I wouldn't like to bet on the gambling commission doing anything about it after that disgraceful statement on Betbright.  Suspect the Advertising Standards Authority would be a better place to complain to.

Hi Doobs,

Not sure what this means. 10/1 1/4 4 you are getting 5/2 top 4. 10/1 1/5 5 you are getting 2/1 top 5.

So 28.6% top 4. 33.3% top 5. i.e. 4.7% chance to finish 5th which seems generous.

And lose 20% on your win bet? Is that special rules with Geoff Banks?

Agree with all the sleep advice.

I would maybe suggest playing the WSOP Monster Stack $1.5k - deep structure, day 1 on Saturday, day 2 on Monday, nice of them to schedule it around the Sky sit and go (i've also got a sky package).

Also look at the Wynn schedule, lots of $500 $100k dailies, very pleasant environment to play in.

The 9am satts sound like torture, unless you like getting up super early.

I have nearly 65% of my net worth on a cross win. Lets ffffff go!

The remaining 35% on Taylor?

Another Mourinho masterclass.

Give him a new contract please.

[no different than some Man U fans when they were winning everything under SAF]

Shakes head. Already deleted two posts before pushing send lol. Ps it's Gray, ran that back four ragged when he came on.

What would you shake your head at? Clearly not a penalty and pretty sure most observers/neutrals would agree. Baffling decision from the ref....the same ref who sent off Walker, for what I can only assume was breathing, vs Everton earlier in the season.

And well done to Gray/Grey, he ran our 2nd string defence ragged. Maybe if he keeps up this level of performance he can sit on Liverpool's bench in a couple of years.

because a bit less arrogance and a bit more humility wouldn't go amiss

yes, your team has hit the jackpot with owners, manager and players and its fantastic etc etc

but a classier attitude from you would be nice, no different than some Man U fans when they were winning everything under SAF

ouch, that's going to hurt



(was never a pen tho)

We are exchanging contracts on our first flat and have discovered the underfloor (waterpowered) heating doesn't work. There are radiators in both bathrooms and a brand new boiler.

The owners are a couple our age and said that they turned off the underfloor heating because it was simply too hot and unnecessary even in winter. And it was only when we asked them to turn it on so we could see it working, that they realised it didn't work. The lady in the flat next door also said her underfloor heating didn't work.

Do we believe them that the radiators are sufficient? (Fwiw it was baking last night when I went round at 7pm, was 13degrees outside)

Or do we make them tear up all the floors and delay the move, also risk the flooring being damaged.

Is there another solution like add radiators to the other rooms?

It's a ground floor flat FYI. If underfloor heating is written in the description and it doesn't work, surely we have some right to now say, look we want it working when we move in or £x off the sale price.

Here's a floor plan if that helps

Click to see full-size image.

Think it's pretty common for underfloor heating to play up. I have a top floor flat with underfloor heating, pretty sure in one of the bedrooms it doesn't work, need to sort it, a friend had similar issue and ended up paying £500 to fix. Usually an issue with the control panel rather than the actual heating element broken.

Your flat being on the ground floor I would insist that they get it fixed, no way would a ground floor flat be warm enough in winter with no heating? Unless you are used to living in an igloo.

Also no chance they haven't realised that their heating wasn't working, demand a discount for them subjecting your ears to that bullshit.

https://www.dusktilldawncasinonottingham.com/event/1day1k/#structure

I think structure would be better if remove BB 250 and BB 500 levels, and add in BB 5k, BB 24k and BB 50k.

Current structure is too much play early and not enough later, just imo.

Looking forward to playing it regardless

How the fuck is Chris Sutton a pundit?!

He's a shit stirrer but I'd say having played at a top level in more than one league is probably how.

Yeh all those competitive games he played against the likes of Motherwell, Dunfermline and Inverness is what really helped him get a job in punditry

Same, expected to see nightly online satts in the week leading up to a 1k with a 500k guarantee. Not to have any at all in the five days preceding seems strange.

Betfair/Paddy 15/8 City to win Prem, exchange is 2.74 to lay.

Strange they don't hoover up the £19k wanting to back City at 2.78 on their own exchange if they want to lay 2.875.

Any views on CBB Chomps ?

None as yet. Don't know enough about most of those going in to play. Danan will probably get most of the airtime though. Complete loon. Might even have a chance these days and perhaps was just ahead of his time when he went on Love Island.

Sure we'll find a bet at some stage though.

Anyone seen anything about when the RP football season supplement comes out?

The full list of contestants is as follows:

Sarah Harding
Shaun Williamson
Jemma Lucy
Derek Acorah
Amelia Lily
Paul Danan
Jordan Davies
Helen Lederer
Brandi Glanville
Chad Johnson
Trisha Paytas
Sam Thompson
Marissa Jade
Sandi Bogle
Rosanna Davison
Karthik Nagesan


Karthik was tv gold on the apprentice, looks a pretty good line up. 

How many of those could people state who they are on that list and what they are/were famous for?  I can name only one.  Is it just the fact i am seriously old or are these people not famous at all generally?

You beat me. No idea who any of them are. Don't want to know either.

Bit of an obvious one, but Lukaku top scorer 9/2 each way 1/4 4 places (Stars, Vic).

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Win price is bang on Betfair, place part we get 9/8, people looking to back odds on prices on Betfair.

Hard to see him not being there or thereabouts unless misses a chunk through injury.

So I think I've spotted an edge when betting on penalty shootouts and having run the math past a friend he said it checked out. However, the info I have the bookies also do so I’m thinking there must be a flaw in my thinking so I wanted to run it past TFT.

Academic research (over a large sample) shows that the team kicking first in a shootout has a 60% chance of winning, but the bookies usually price the two teams up at the same price.

Yesterday Germany and England were both 1.9 to win on BetEveryDayOfTheYear, even when it was clear Germany was going to take the first kick.

Doing some math if we bet £20 on the team going first in 100 shootouts we risk £2,000. For each bet, we win we receive £38 (20 x 1.9). £38 x 60 = £2,280. 280/2000x100 = 14% ROI.

I think my math is correct, so what am I missing? I know this bet assumes two equally skilled teams but bet size could be scaled up or down if there’s a large skill gap between the two teams/penalties are being taken in front of Team A/B’s fans etc.



Not strictly a rec for TFT but if anyone happens to be watching the Confed Cup semi-finals this week and one goes to penalties this could be an angle.

This big discrepency is one reason they're looking to introduce the ABBA system in penalty shootouts.
/ramble

?

If we risk £2000 we win £1800
100 bets of £20 = £2000 to win 100 x £18 so we lose £200 or 10% every time we bet

It appears your £38 x60 calculation is kind of insignificant unless Im missing something ?

But we always back the team who shoot first. They are always* priced at 1.9. They 'should' win 60% of the time. *At least the times i've made this bet and it's with more than one bookie.

So £20@1.9 odds = £38 if we win the bet. £38 x 60 (the number of times the bet should win out of 100) = £2,280. That was my methodology + where the 38x60 figure comes in. Like I say I could have made a massive error somewhere in here and for the bookies to allow this edge when it's common knowledge makes me think I must be doing something wrong.

Simple way to look at it is you are getting 1.9 about what you think is a 1.67 shot.

1.9 / 1.67 = 1.14.

So you are correct, in theory a 14% ROI.

Think the button ante is a good idea, surprised it hasn't been tried by anyone before (I think).

What happens in hands where there is a dead button though? Everyone antes the old fashioned way?