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1  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: Vagueness and the Aftermath - A sporadic diary on: January 21, 2020, 08:59:42 AM
By law, you have to turn your headlights on when it's raining in Sweden.

How the fek would I know when it's raining in Sweden?

if you drive a Volvo or a Saab they just leave the lights on all the time. There might be other examples but since Sweden changed the law to require them on (all the time i think, not just when raining) manufacturers decided to take it out of the hands of the driver and just make them always-on.
2  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: I Think This Deserves It's Own Thread on: January 17, 2020, 10:01:54 AM
I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?

love a bit of Fermi estimation!
3  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: I Think This Deserves It's Own Thread on: January 17, 2020, 09:59:55 AM
seems like the best way to get a price on the triple triple bingo would be to Monte Carlo it.
intuitively it's a longer shot than the golf because of the dangling constraint though, and the constraint of using up a single triple. If I hit a hole in one, there's nothing stopping you doing the same in the same round, but if I use a triple, it's exhausted for you for that game.
4  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Post a pic of where you are now on: December 21, 2019, 11:09:44 PM

if you’re still in town and want to check out something a bit ‘more Czech’ then head to the market at Mirák (Náměstí Míru). It’s well served by public transport and is on the Green metro line.

Particularly if you’re in town on Sunday you should consider heading to Střecha Lucerny which is the rooftop of the Lucerna arcade just off Wenceslas Square.

It’s not open very often to the general public and for my money has some of the best views in the city.

 Click to see full-size image.
5  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 18, 2019, 07:36:02 AM
One thing that really annoys me is the constant message from the left wing about morality and political views.

There seems to be an aggressively communicated message that the left wing hold the moral high ground and all Tories are heartless, selfish scum.

I get that opinion from a friend of mine who happens to manipulate his "income" to earn £10-12,000 each year, paying fuck all in taxes and still enjoys 3 or 4 lovely holidays each year. Obviously holds the moral high ground as a Labour supporter.

I always smile when I see certain high profile gamblers with prominent left wing views supporting Corbyn tax and spend policies as gospel when they pay fuck all themselves on gambling winnings. Maybe they make a donation of 30% of their income to charities and their local hospital eh?



Ha. That last para is my pet hobby horse. You don't pay income tax then I'm really not interested in your opinion on how it should be spent.

does that apply to the low-waged as well?

I nearly made that qualifier but on my phone so kept it short. Doesn't apply and I'd love to see a lot more done to support low waged people. There are so many people for whom scraping a living is properly hard work and in many workplaces I would get that the employer can't necessarily boost wages in a material way. Would love to see those people supported much more rather than potentially flinging out universal entitlements to people who don't need it. This to me was the biggest hole in the Labour manifesto

Good qualifier. My caveat is that it is *often* cheaper (and this, more efficient) to give something to everyone than to means-test it. So sometimes when you want something spent on the poorest, you have to be content with millionaires receiving the same benefit.
6  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 17, 2019, 03:19:22 PM
One thing that really annoys me is the constant message from the left wing about morality and political views.

There seems to be an aggressively communicated message that the left wing hold the moral high ground and all Tories are heartless, selfish scum.

I get that opinion from a friend of mine who happens to manipulate his "income" to earn £10-12,000 each year, paying fuck all in taxes and still enjoys 3 or 4 lovely holidays each year. Obviously holds the moral high ground as a Labour supporter.

I always smile when I see certain high profile gamblers with prominent left wing views supporting Corbyn tax and spend policies as gospel when they pay fuck all themselves on gambling winnings. Maybe they make a donation of 30% of their income to charities and their local hospital eh?



Ha. That last para is my pet hobby horse. You don't pay income tax then I'm really not interested in your opinion on how it should be spent.

does that apply to the low-waged as well?
7  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 17, 2019, 12:56:08 PM
Quick question. If the Scots get independence and stay in or re-join the EU, will we need a hard border?

well all EU borders to the outside world are 'hard' in the absence of arrangements otherwise. Those arrangements might be, e.g., a comprehensive trade deal encompassing a customs union, for example.

it's the same problem as faced by the Irish border. Taking back control of our borders is, it appears, a lot harder to do when one of them is in another country Smiley

8  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 17, 2019, 11:51:23 AM
Johnson putting it in law that the transition period cannot be extended is so fantastically bad and also unnecessary

It leads UK to one of two conclusions

Either the UK just agrees to what the EU offers it on the future relationship (so much for take back control!)

Or it’s No Deal and crash out end of 2020

If you’re the stronger player, having a deadline might help you. But the UK is the weaker and more ill prepared player here. As it’s been until now.

It doesn’t know in detail what it wants. It doesn’t have adequate negotiation capacity.

Brexit will legally happen 31 Jan. Having the option to extend the transition period after that was a useful insurance policy if negotiations go badly. And now the UK *through its own volition* is denying itself that.

Of course the key point is it's not about the best negotiating strategy, it's about crushing the (now virtually non-existent ) hope and parliamentary debate that arises from any option to change course.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

don't fall for it.

BORIS ENSHRINES EXIT DATE IN LAW. BORIS OUTLAWS EXTENSION.

etc etc. absolute tosh and totally just playing to the gallery.

Parliament cannot bind its future self. Remember when he also enshrined in law that we'd be out by Oct 31st?

the point is fundamentally this. once we're out on Jan 31st, A50 ceases to apply. Under A50, extensions were, pragmatically speaking, unilateral in nature and could be invoked at the latest hour. For proof of that, consider the right of unilateral revocation and you'll see what I mean easily.

That will not be the case under the WA -- which specifically sets out a date in July by which an extension must be requested.
Extensions under the WA will be far less unilateral in nature, and I have no doubt that they will occur, fwiw. But they require planning and buy-in on all sides and in all capitals of Europe.
That Parliament cannot bind itself may be a fact for which Mr Johnson is grateful, once he's finished his grandstanding.
9  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 16, 2019, 05:30:52 PM
Is the vote that is likely to happen on Friday classed as a 'meaningful vote'?

meaningful vote has a specific meaning in terms of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.

Essentially, for a vote to be 'meaningful' it has to encompass both Withdrawal Agreement, as well as the Political Declaration.

I'd be surprised if the coming vote on Friday wasn't meaningful (as in order to become law by Jan 31st he needs to have one) but it might not be in order to give him the opportunity to re-visit the declaration bit. Particularly those parts on level playing field etc he might be minded to try and change.

It's worth noting that the meaningful vote is *only* for the HoC, not the Lords. The vote is what sets up the Government's introduction of the Bill to ratify the WA. The proper scrutiny to be provided by the Lords (and, indeed, the Commons) will happen when (or, one supposes, if) the Bill is introduced.

Good primer here: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/parliament/the-meaningful-vote-a-users-guide/
10  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 13, 2019, 03:39:38 PM
I find it amazing that Labour lost Kensington to the Tories, a constituency that was 70% remain and the home of Grenfell Tower.

not that special. Lib Dem arrogance in standing a candidate there which split Lab/Lib in an anyway marginal seat that Labour won by 20 votes in 2017 and had previously been Strong Con holds.

the absolute arrogance of Sam Gyimah to stand there as a former Tory with no credibility where Lib Dem's had never polled more than 6% is just indicative of the failure of Lib and Lab to work together to stop the Tories.
11  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 13, 2019, 09:12:28 AM
looks like the end of the labour party to me.

with Voter ID and boundary changes and the never possibility of winning seats in Scotland (until they leave) i don't see a way back for Labour, even if Tony Blair himself came back to lead the party.
12  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary on: December 12, 2019, 09:45:42 AM
glad you're recovering TK,

i think more than being a money spinner for them, the flu jabs being pushed hard this time of year are a simple recognition that avoidable flus absolutely cripple the NHS by taking up precious winter beds with something that is a) avoidable and b) serious enough that it can kill (and does, every winter).
it's worth avoiding that (almost) any cost.

So anyway, if you know someone who qualifies for the flujab and they haven't had it, tell them to do themselves and the NHS a favour and go book an appointment to have it done.

13  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: Vagueness and the Aftermath - A sporadic diary on: December 12, 2019, 09:24:59 AM
I was and am a big fan of the late Clive James and since his recent death I've been re reading some of his stuff.

In summing up his own abilities he said, "All I can really do is turn a phrase until it catches the light".

He certainly could.

my favourite piece of his is 'Have you got a biro I can borrow?'.
A stunning declaration of love and a brilliant working of such an ordinary premise.

https://www.waterstones.com/blog/remembering-clive-james-have-you-got-a-biro-i-can-borrow

The best comedians promise to "make it funny", how ever mundane or extreme the situation. Clive James could "make it" anything you wanted from any premise, no matter how silly or mundane or or or.
14  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 11, 2019, 11:31:36 PM
So on the final day before the election we’ve had the BBC’s Senior Political Editor say that postal votes don’t look good for Labour, which appears on its face to be a breach of broadcasting code as well as Electoral Commission rules, but all of that pales into insignificance when there’s another BBC troll saying that ‘if he wins the majority that he so deserves’.

https://www.facebook.com/185180654855189/posts/2920015368038357/?vh=e

No surprises there that the he in question is Boris Johnson.

The lack of editorial integrity is remarkable.  Absolutely outstanding.

I look forward to hearing from Sheree Jenner-Hepburn or some other Tory shill telling us all about the good friend she has working at the Beeb and how impartial they all are, and in fact if anything they’re biased against Boris and his oven-ready Brexit deal.
15  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 11, 2019, 03:54:43 PM
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/12/11/the-last-days-of-hope

on the money from Mr. Dunt as usual.
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