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61  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Anaras Alekberovas on: November 06, 2014, 12:15:47 AM
So we can/should avoid this guy until the bubble bursts right?. Then we can take care of him.
62  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Anaras Alekberovas on: November 05, 2014, 11:48:21 PM
Been thinking a bit about this hand since Alex brought it to my attention the other day...

This is why I tried to ask what he is thinking because then we can exploit him very efficiently.

I don't think it is really possible to 'exploit him very efficiently' in this spot.

Fact is, this is a really bad flop for hero and villain has a substantial range advantage. Not in terms of overall equity, but in terms of distribution of equity. Hero is going to be opening really tightly from EP on the bubble - he won't be opening small pairs or small suited connectors. So on this particular flop hero has an 'empty range' - or, more accurately, he has lots of mid-strength stuff like overpairs, but his range is empty in terms of nutted combos. Villain is the only one who has sets, straights, two pair etc. Of course, hero has some flush draws and these do have robust equity and good visibility. However villain will likely have more flush draw combos, since hero is not going to be opening stuff like Qc9c from EP, but villain is definitely going to defend this sort of hand in the BB.

For this reason, hero is allowed to overfold in this spot. Villain has just got a lucky flop. This is no big deal, because 6 high flops do not occur very often. So it's not like villain is going to be able to recklessly donk many flops at hero.

Much respect to villain for recognising how bad this flop is for hero's range vs his range, and for having the balls to take advantage of it in a high pressure situation.

If you want to think about exploitative play/getting into villain's head, then...

Look at the picture of villain. That mofo is clearly one serious badass. I'm guessing that he's gonna barrel the turn and river way way way too much. Heck, he might even bet every turn and jam every river with his entire range. That's just the way he rolls. Badasses are gonna badass, right?

So with this in mind, we could choose to overfold on the flop and then massively underfold on the turn and river. Fold two red Kings right away for example, but call him down almost regardless of run out with KcKx. That's just a silly example off the top of my head... but you know the sort of thing I mean, right?

I definitely would not be raising anything at all on the flop.

Nice post really highlights the difficulty hero is in with this hand.
63  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Anaras Alekberovas on: November 05, 2014, 07:36:44 PM
This is why I tried to ask what he is thinking because then we can exploit him very efficiently.
Obviously this information is not easily gleaned otherwise the game would be much easier.

The default seems to be people using the cards as a stabilizing factor or guiding factor.
You know, the draws missed I'm going to call, the draws hit I'm going to fold this seems
really exploitable. Pretty sure everybody who has posted is pretty range competent but mainly the key
to this is expanding beyond the what are the cards on the board and what are in each of our ranges to
what does this opponent expect from us.
64  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Anaras Alekberovas on: November 02, 2014, 07:01:43 PM
Interesting read Alex. A little pushed for time so will post more in depth later with my view.

Just wanted to ask you though if the roles were reversed knowing what you know about our hero how would
you exploit him in this given spot. Basically what would be the best line to take?
65  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: turbo progressive super-KO on: November 02, 2014, 04:42:27 AM
Bounty wise they are very top heavy with the winner getting the lions share from the bounty percentage is my understanding.
66  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: AmayaStars on: November 01, 2014, 01:29:48 PM
I will make an effort to play on other sites. Vote with your feet I say.
Will have to sign up for SKY now Tikay ;-)

Pure greed shown by Amaya in my opinion.
67  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: New Poker Podcast, worth a listen (Sykes, Mason, Moorman, Grafton) on: November 01, 2014, 03:25:31 AM
68  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Live hand on: October 30, 2014, 10:02:19 PM
fwiw my point was relating to if we were on the button. I think it's a jam from MP or HJ (can't remember OP) regardless of who's in the blinds, as there's everyone else behind as well and live ppl do like to peel.
Just pointing out that you actually mentioned image of players behind. Seven handed its a fist pump jam. Would jam it nine handed utg also.
69  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Live hand on: October 30, 2014, 09:59:00 PM
Shoving keeps things simple and is profitable I agree. I would shove from every position apart from possibly the cutoff/button/small blind. If your uncomfortable making decisions on flops then this is a good route to take even in those positions. I think flop play with this hand and situation would be simple enough once we are comfortable enough making assumptions on our opponents ranges, this is largely just practice and knowing your opponent/having experience to draw upon. Each time you have to see a flop with 11 big blinds back and 4.5-5.5 in with one opponent with the betting lead and in position just accept you are making money/have already made a bunch of money and go from there. Forcing yourself out of your comfort zone will help you improve as a player. I feel like I have a significant advantage in certain spots/stack sizes, where I have taken an unusual line before or just have  a lot of experience, ie limping buttons with 30bb which gives me an edge. Think of raise/calling here as the crosscourt backhand finisher in tennis, its pretty important if your a pro but not really needed if your having some fun in the park. 

The hand from OP is a prime example, we would have a relatively tough spot if c/r'd, things are awkward, but our opponent has let us off by allowing us to make an easy fold. I think this example should ease our concerns about raise/calling, our opponent presumably flopped well and let us off cheap. Lets play some poker. It might feel unclean to cbet 1.65bb and fold or check/fold having put in a fifth of our stack but sometimes these things happen.

I really like the way you have explained things in this post Adam. I even had a little Ah-Ha moment about something you said Smiley
Excellent post agreed.
70  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Live hand on: October 30, 2014, 09:35:08 PM
this is a shove
Hey pleno in a vacuum I would agree without doubt and math wise it's also going to be profitable.
We make no mention of our image in the op though. It is fair to say that deep in a live comp we will have built up
an image or even at worst we will have a set image. For instance young/old regular/inexperienced.

As Alex alludes to this alone is vital and important information with our decision here. And there is very little information
on stack sizes and opponents behind us and a host of other factors. I mean are we near the bubble(you know I love ICM).

Once these things are answered we can get a more decisive answer rather than "This is a shove" which while no doubt
correct is probably not that helpful to a new player.

And I think a min can be a good option as long as our post flop play is good. Go and go unless its donked is an option
especially for a skilled player as live players put far to much emphasis on survival. But shoving takes away any potential postflop
problems that could be leaks in certain games.
71  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Uber aggro Jake Cody play EPT London. on: October 24, 2014, 11:16:18 AM
also i don't know who devised the title of the thread but not very fitting lol
We can lose the Uber agreed. Fair.
72  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: AmayaStars on: October 24, 2014, 12:39:40 AM
Not best at all.
73  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Uber aggro Jake Cody play EPT London. on: October 23, 2014, 11:41:06 PM
Out of interest Jake what would you say his assumed range is here?.
Went a little wider myself originally although I didn't watch the whole
final. Julian did and assured me he had not been getting to out
of line up to this point so for his tournament life the range would be tighter.

Pleno Jake had like 40bbs and Kevin jammed 20bbs.
74  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Best way of marketing poker? on: October 23, 2014, 01:36:00 AM
Late Night Poker was such a good format back in the day. Created so many heroes really did.
75  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Dear Pleno..........Best Regards, Jungleman. on: October 23, 2014, 12:01:40 AM
Great minds think alike I was just about to post a similar thread.
Pleno is now a Runitonce coach from what I read in his diary.

Very best of luck with this Pleno. Will have to update my essential plan now I guess.
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