This is a definite shove pre.

Raise flop IMO

This.

Betting like £50 the way the hand has played out. Lots of hands that call flop will have 2pr by the river and £1/2 players can't fold these. They'll show up with QJ/TJ hands that were scared of the hearts too, but i think you can still bet your hand for value and expect to get called by worse a lot of the time considering the price and the standard of player.

He definitely isn't doing all that combo counting etc. in real time so don't worry about that. Jose analyses tons of his hands like this, so with practice and repetition he's able to make really good approximations which he's proving in the vid.

My thought is we have a straight flush draw and are getting over 2 to 1. I do quick check to see if the calendar is the 25th day of the 12th month and do a http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffCmFDzaYyQ .

Longy f'in 11 itt

its a clear value bet? or is he folding 10's to turn bet?

Yeah you're only getting two streets max out of smaller pairs once that card peels so i think you should check the ace, then the percieved credibility of your river value bet will be decreased

Included villians name as i imagine lots of you will know him (got it from Bluff mag this month). For those that don't as far as i know villian is a well established pro, i've played with him a couple times and as far as i've seen he's very competent and hand reads well.

On the table he's been playing pretty solid over the last 3/4 orbits. He'd likely view me as TAG, i've 3bet peoples opens a couple times but been mostly card dead so haven't opened that much. Prob assumes i'm at least a decent player.

Blinds 500/1000/100
Eff Stacks ~46k

I open in ep to 2100. Folds to villian in the BB who calls.

Flop 

He checks, I cbet 2500. Get called fairly fast

Turn

He checks. I think for a bit then check. Thoughts? I think he'll realise i'm very unlikely to hold a 7 here and there wouldn't be much i can do vs the invariable raise. But there are now lots of possible outs for me on the river plus i figured i could still potentially win it there with a bloof.

River
He quickly checks. I think for a while then bet 3500. He reaches to his stack and without much thought places in around ~11000. Hmm. Hmm hmm hmm.


What do blonde? And how's my line?

Definitely have to let this go

I wouldn't shove any 2. Just hands that play ok when called. Folding j3 etc

I think we're too short to open fold anything here. People in $1's are generally going to have way tighter ranges for calling off than they should and nicely we cover both the SB and BB which will make them very reluctant to call with anything remotely marginal. Basically our shove is going to get through an absolute ton.

any two?

Yes.

he's betting a worse hand on the turn like never, simple fold

Seems a pretty clear 4b/fold to me. Blockerrrrsssssssss

Yeah this.

fold pre,

c/r now, 65.

Bet turn 60 setting up river jam of 95.

i'd probably just cram turn as this line looks a little too strong imo plus allows the possibility of an extra scare card getting there for him

...make it £55, setting up a non spade turn c/r all in.

very optimistic to think he'll let you c/r him ott. however i do think you should raise him here. you're going to look strong no matter what so you may as well stick more money in there.

Basically i think you're good here nearly always. Kx is irrelevant guys, he doesn't do this with KJ.

Checking back/calling river is better. Villian is giving up a ton after checking turn and prob be more inclined to bluff river than spaz out on turn. However nice sizing to induce!

In it goes