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2371  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Standard hand from BBL? Perhaps not! on: November 22, 2011, 01:37:06 PM
I start day 2 of BBL with around 265k (average ~65k / 2nd CL having ~160k) so have a big advantage. After a couple of hours of play i have a live read on the guy to my left (3rd CL) and end up successfully 6-betting him PF with  Qs3c... and showing - i do this for 2 reasons; firstly because i dont want anybody to start playing at me with garbage (which they shouldnt now they know im capable of 6betting a hand like Qs3c) and secondly because i want this crazy image in order for me to get paid off lighter.

THE HAND:

Blinds 1.5k / 3k - ante 200 (?) - (average ~110k)

Opponent in C/O - (stacking ~ 190k) raises to 7100.
Me in SB - (stacking ~300k) pick up  and 3 bets to 13,400 (i read him as semi strong pf so the 3 bet was sized in order to induce a 4 bet from him as ive picked up on a bet sizing tell from him i think)
Opponent in C/O then raises to 57,100 (wtf >4x ?!?! - from this bet sizing - compared to his play previously, he can NEVER have AA / KK / QQ here as he 4 bets smaller in order to get value with these hands as he knows i can 6+ bet with garbage - but can also NEVER have no hand as hes putting around 1/3 of his stack in here and essentially committing himself - i figure here he either has AK or 1010 as his bet sizing indicates he wants the hand to end here.
Me in SB - i tank 5bet jam putting him on either AK (which with JJ im ~60/40) or 1010 (which with JJ im ~ 80/20) - so figure i have around 70% equity in the pot, which would lead to me having a 5x chip lead over the average field - and basically a final table stack with 60/70 runners left.

It turns out the he has  so im ~60/40 but he manages to spike the K on the river which leaves me with ~110k - average).

THE QUESTION:
My question is do i need to 5 bet / get it in after reading him as fairly strong pf + being 99% sure i have on average 70%v equity in the pot (with his 4bet sizing)? Or since im in such a dominant position over the field and am in my eyes running over my table that once i 3 bet to 13,400 and he 4 bets to 57,100 - should i just fold with the knowledge that i do have so much equity in the pot if it we were to showdown but i have only put 1/25th of my stack in pf and therefore can afford to fold and find a better spot?

I have talked to numerous people about this hand and have different responses. Your thourghts please?
2372  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: OFFICIAL: Horse tip Thread on: November 15, 2011, 04:05:41 PM
On Favoured Nation to get me level for the day

wp Smiley
2373  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: OFFICIAL: Horse tip Thread on: November 15, 2011, 03:48:14 PM
im liking CARNAC here
2374  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: OFFICIAL: Horse tip Thread on: November 15, 2011, 03:40:49 PM
im on white diamond in next @ fakenam(not a tip just what im on!)
2375  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: OFFICIAL: Horse tip Thread on: November 15, 2011, 03:26:01 PM
Right now to pick the next one, where did i put that pin...

xD

2376  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: OFFICIAL: Horse tip Thread on: November 15, 2011, 03:23:38 PM
WILLIAM HAIGH  for me

wpwp!
2377  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: OFFICIAL: Horse tip Thread on: November 15, 2011, 03:21:21 PM
any thourghts on 'no larking'? was one i was looking at
2378  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: OFFICIAL: Horse tip Thread on: November 15, 2011, 03:14:28 PM
any1 have any thourghts in the 3.20 at southwell?
2379  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Chelsea 3 Arsenal 5 on: October 29, 2011, 03:04:52 PM
RVP MVP!

Quality game.. prems gone wild this season!
2380  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: analyse this! on: October 23, 2011, 11:27:33 AM
its not a horribly played hand but its not great imo...
you should have probably:
1. bet smaller pre
2. C/B a higher % then half of pot
3. either check / jam the turn (as was said before if he flats - not that he should - and u miss... ur fucked!) Cheesy
2381  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Sigh in the big $55 on: October 21, 2011, 08:22:53 PM
dont think hes ever really bluffing this spot with the way u played it tbh (if so very very rarely).. AJ is beat here the majority of the time
2382  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Weekend Football Bets on: August 06, 2011, 01:17:51 PM
(My bets)

MK Dons
Southend
Brighton
Ipswitch

@ 16/1

+ chesterfield vs tranmere - draw (for a little value Wink )

@ 55/1

others i fancy:

Brentford
Forrest
Swindon
Birmingham
2383  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Weekend Football Bets on: August 06, 2011, 12:48:19 PM
ill kick it off, fancy chesterfield away at tranmere 15/8

hope this happens and although tranmeres team i feel is fairly poor, chesterfields form on the road from last season suggests this will be a draw, especially when coupled with their preseason - which wasnt great... deffo a good shot at 12/5 imo!
2384  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: WSOP One Stop Shop on: July 16, 2011, 01:20:22 PM
gl Simon deadman
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