f

Feel robbed

I'm a bit behind the times with tournament strat off effective stacks that are this short, but why have a limping range from the small in the first place here?

Ante was 200k 5 handed so 20% ante. I think it’s a 0% fold spot but not particularly clued up myself

two great players

He would have heard about Manig having most Queens, all King-x's and all Ace-x's pre flop?

would have heard about any 8x,9x or Jack-x post flop rather than check down on a draw heavy board?

great call of course

blinds 100/200k with 200k btn ante.

reiss has less than 5bb behind after putting in BB.

On river there are 2 scenarios:

1. Manig has some balance with his preflop range and doesn't auto raise/jam his Qx Kx Ax pairs...etc. Ryan would have likely bet his Jx / 9x on one of the previous streets which means any Ax (possibly even Kx) Manig balanced with pre becomes a slam dunk value bet as Ryan almost never has better as he jams all Ax / Kx pre vs a limp regardless of whether or not Manig has some amount of balanced range... If he calls with 10 high and wins thats great, but its a pure guess, don't mistake it for genius.

2. Maing is super unbalanced and is jamming all his Qx Kx Ax / other good hands /pairs pre, making him super easy to play against. This means every time Manig limps Ryan can jam any 2 cards and show profit as he always has trashy hands. This makes this call super easy.

I suspect its #1 and hes just guessed right, regardless of what the commentators are saying.

[The dragonglass should have been more effective and just cut them down, but some dead seemed to keep fighting and some exploded. Arya even stabbed one in the chin and it just bled out. Complete lack of continuity really, but all abso fine.]

The most epic piece of TV/Film for me was always the long shoot out in Heat. The noise was incredible and stays with me even now.

That episode just blew it away. I lost track of how many times I paused it to catch my breath and even giggle a couple of times at how bloody good it was.

Some things just didnt add up. The dragonglass should have been more effective and just cut them down, but some dead seemed to keep fighting and some exploded. Arya even stabbed one in the chin and it just bled out. Complete lack of continuity really, but all abso fine.

Epic TV and Im half way through watching it again in the same day, not something I ever recalled doing before.

Exhausted, but satisfied!

Weren't the ones who exploded the Targeryan White Walkers rather than just the dead normies? As for the bleeding I thought the same but I guess dead people still have blood up to a point? Was this before or after the night king raised the dead? If it was a fresh corpse then its fine.

Can't wait until they all realize hiding in the crypt vs an enemy who can raise the dead is a terrible idea... I feel like this is a pretty badly thought out storyline... Seriously, how can none of them realize?

Wasn't a fan of the Arya / Gendry scene either... Doesn't really feel like Arya's character needed that.

Will keep this spoiler-free ahead of the 9pm showing this evening, but thought we should bump the old thread.

I enjoyed the first episode, but I think I'd suitably managed my expectations that it would be one of the 'plot-development' episodes rather than one of the planned 'epic' ones in the mould of Battle of the Bastards, etc.  Thinking back, it was unusual in that it pretty much updated every major character in the story, unlike previous ones where they've developed one plot-line and saved another one for a later episode.  In that sense, it was very much a 'moving the chess pieces' episode on its return. which is what I'd expected all along.

Some might be disappointed by this, but this seems to have been how the last couple of series have been shaped, in particular.

The difference is there are now only nine episodes left and a shit load of people to kill, so I expect that was the last chess piece mover.

5 Episodes left, though there are 2/3 80min + episodes. I guess this is why they had to keep you updated re. all major characters.

Really enjoyed ep1.

Who out of: Bronn / Samwell / Varys / Jorah do we think will be alive at the end?

Just seen that a couple of guys lost their cues on the journey back from China, Judd one of them. Hope they turn up as there is a big tourney coming up.

Hawkins overpriced at 25/1 for me, would love the Goat to win it but think 17days is too long for him to be in a Zen like state.

Same happened to Hendry in 03

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2003/sep/02/snooker.cliveeverton

[Ultimately the FOBT firms have killed the goose that laid the golden egg by taking the easy money short term but losing out massively long term in market share in the online game where in 2020 that is all that matters.]

The big bookies are defo in some bother, imo. For years the strat has been not to employ proper traders and just stick someone in on a junior salary to sit there with a checklist of what they dont wanna see and ban anyone who touches the list, the guys who's job is it to primarily stop people who are making winning bets obviously will be quite nitty as they'll never get pulled in monday and asked, "why you ban this guy" but they'll defo get the "WTF how did you let this guy bet" chat, also when you add in the cost of processing money there's a lot of small losing punters the firms dont even want. It's probably been a prudent strategy over the years as top traders are expensive given they will always earn more punting themselves or working with the syndicates and that money could get pushed into the every present PR/Marketing war that rages between the big guns, hard to ever not make money running a huge bookie like this, and let the cash-cow of the retail element (FOBTS) pay all the bonuses.

Now the FOBT business is hit and the AML restrictions make it all the more difficult to actually attract the right punters, they probs need to re-asses the business model, this is me shooting from the hip but i seriously wonder if huge, now completely corporate businesses are even capable of the changes needed, might be they're actually just not good enough and maybe we'll see one of the big guns fade away at some point. Lads/Coral under the GVC umbrella could just get binned off if they can't turn the retail side round, betfred have the worst online software and no partnership, who knows, 10 years ago you'd have laughed anyone out of the room who said Billy Hills might go out of business. I'm not saying starting to take punters on properly is absolutely what they should be doing but I think they need to do something different.

I never been massively aggravated by bookies restricting people, just all part of the game, I wanna make bets, they don't wanna take my bets, like a sporting contest, they certainly aren't obligated to take my business just as a carpet fitter would be perfectly entitled to turn to me and say "Im not fitting your carpets because I don't like your face"

Who would have thought 10 years ago lolbrokes and jokals would have to merge to even remotely stay relevant and bf would have a sporttsbook and need to merge with paddy power to remotely stay relevant to Denise.  Skybet would be 'Britains biggest bookmaker.  Stan James 'the original in running firm' doesn't even exist anymore.  Hills and Bald have just stood still and ten years on from 2009 online poker is so irrelevant to any decision any gaming company makes it wouldn't have been beleived in 2009.

I wouldn't like to have had a market leading business with Denise and Co right up my arse about to swallow me up.

They haven't helped themselves though.  Unsurprising how the FOBT's were the huge cash cow but the three biggest firms in the uk now (apart from bf's small number of paddy shops) have zero exposure to fobts at all for a decade.  The arrogance and laziness fobt's caused in the firms that had them has ultimately killed them all off as serious players in the market place.  The key years for online growth and market share hoovering was the same years the fobt's were having it off.  Ultimately the FOBT firms have killed the goose that laid the golden egg by taking the easy money short term but losing out massively long term in market share in the online game where in 2020 that is all that matters.

Sorry to hijack but Tikay if you were reading the heads up table thread in the sky poker forum this is exactly what spin ups are doing.

"That cue-ball came off the cushion almost twice as fast as it went on".

Oh yeah? Try telling that to prof Brian Cox and he'll tell you to fuck off.

Surely that’s possible with backspin or am I missing something?

[gl winning by 2 away from home with 28% possession.]

28% possession.   No corners.  4 shots on target.  3 goals. You run like god.  Don't get carried away and be results orientated!

Football is, inevitably, results orientated though.

Did PSG run badly? Other than for the VAR Penalty that is. Tactically United got it very right tonight. Ceding possession and defending deep restricted PSG goal chances and a chunk of their 72% was ineffective.

Anyway, don’t piss on our parade! We’re in the CL quarter finals.

gl winning by 2 away from home with 28% possession.  

Are you implying United would have been higher EV attempting to go toe to toe with PSG? .... Deffo isn't the case, especially with the squad available.

Gl winning by 2 away from home in general nevermind vs PSG.... United put themselves in the best position they could to get a result out the game by the way they set up.

Obviously isn't a 'fair' outcome as PSG were far better over the two legs but I'll take it  

Saw this status earlier on twitter and instantly thought of this thread.

She struck me as a classic sociopath in her interview, kind of the perfect target for stuff like this...

It's a totally miserable situation I can't come to an opinion on it, on the one hand you have someone who has actively supported and i imagine contributed to serious terrorism, for whom is going to cost a lot of money to take care off...

Then on the other hand you have a heavily pregnant 19yr old girl, who will be left in possibly the most dangerous place in the world. Part of the UKs ideology is that won't happen to UK citizens...

its horrible, makes me so sad there is enough hate in the world that this stuff can happen.

I kinda feel like the greater good might be to refuse here, set a precedent that might need setting. Politically its another impossible spot, I hate Theresa May and think this government is horrible but fuck they have run pretty terrible.

So much sense in one post. This exactly.

When lingard and martial went off everything went to pot.... Sanchez is ridiculously lazy off the ball and leaves so much space in behind him - I think I’m finally ready to give up on him... Mata is amazing technically but I’d have to agree with pleno in that he lacks the pace to play at this level nowadays. Lukaku is utter shite, the sooner he’s moved along the better.

One thing you don’t really get the feel for on tv is how slowly play transitions through Luke Shaw. If we had a LB capable of playing at a normal tempo and not needing an extra touch every time Martial really could have caused PSG problems... He was constantly making great runs in behind and Shaw just isn’t capable of finding him.

Honestly.. we could have done with Fellaini (I was never a hater).

Shaw promises so much and consistently fails to deliver. So many times he gets into a perfect position to deliver a cross, or find Martial as you say, and then stops and passes the ball backwards and in field. It feels like a confidence issue, maybe all that negativity from Mourinho has broken him permanently?

He honestly he just seems heavy. He’s so flat footed when he receives he ball he always needs the extra touch which leads to him playing back in field. I don’t think it’s mourinho as there’s been a lot of faith shown in him lately, I think it’s physical

When lingard and martial went off everything went to pot.... Sanchez is ridiculously lazy off the ball and leaves so much space in behind him - I think I’m finally ready to give up on him... Mata is amazing technically but I’d have to agree with pleno in that he lacks the pace to play at this level nowadays. Lukaku is utter shite, the sooner he’s moved along the better.

One thing you don’t really get the feel for on tv is how slowly play transitions through Luke Shaw. If we had a LB capable of playing at a normal tempo and not needing an extra touch every time Martial really could have caused PSG problems... He was constantly making great runs in behind and Shaw just isn’t capable of finding him.

Honestly.. we could have done with Fellaini (I was never a hater).