Vegas casinos allow these bets in NFL but most British bookies don't. Does anyone know any that do as I've often wondered but I've never found a member of staff with enough intelligence to even come close to understanding my question.

Yes Neil, Bet365 do.

9 tries   Australia Jarryd Hayne
            Australia Brett Morris
8 tries   England Ryan Hall
5 tries   New Zealand Roger Tuivasa-Sheck


We are paid at half stakes, full 14-1 e/w price.

Get Hayne subbed off!

It had finished when I posted.

Thanks again, Rich

Always a very exciting time of year. We've seen off those horrible end of season flat races and we are through the phoney war phase of summer jumpers vs winter horses having an exercise gallop. Newbury today is proper winter jumping although the ground is actually going to be fairly fast for a November jumps meeting.

 The 1.30 is a great each-way race. We've discussed before about the merits of 16-22 runner handicaps and we've talked about the danger of 16 becoming 15. This one has 21 and they all look set to run. If I want a really excellent each-way 16-runner race I love there to be a fair number of easy to discount 100/1+ runners and this one has four. It's also great if there are one or two 4/1 or less runners as it can make a solid 12/1 horse a bigger price for a place than it should be.

 This race is not 100% perfect in that respect and my selection does not fit into that category, but apart from that I think it's a decent race to really attack as so many of the 25/1 - 40/1 chances can be discounted.

 My list of horses that can be crossed off without too much worrying about them killing me are numbers...2,3,4,6,7,9, 13, 15,18 and 20.

 That leaves us with 11 to work with and 4 places. Lovely.

 Free to Dream is running under a penalty and so it's well-in vs the future rating. The stable is in great form. It's still physically a lot of weight and the price of 10/1 offers little value, but it wouldn't surprise me that much.

 Seventh Sign is also from a stable in flying form, ran it's best race last time and looks like it will love the trip. Again, wouldn't be a massive surprise and 25/1 is fair.

 Chiberta King, again the stable are hot and the horse could be really interesting this season. 10/1 last night looked great, 13/2 looks too short.

 Valid Reason is a bit quirky and not certain to stay, probably close to being on the rule out without worrying list.

 Minella for Steak really wants a lot of cut in the ground. Easy to see this all happening too fast for him. Not for me at this price.

 Western Warhorse is solid enough, but it's also a horse that would prefer cut, a proper winter jumper. 9/2 seems about right and doesn't tempt me to bet.

 Invicta Lake is young and I,mproving but needs to improve again. Could do but not solid for each way.

 There are a couple of outsiders I have bet tiny...

 Virginia Ash is from another stable in decent form. Big price over this trip.

 Kilmurvy a stable I like a lot, the horse is quirky but potentially very good. Big price.

 I've had my second biggest bet on the race on Mickie. Henry Daly always has slow maturing chasers and he's in the best form I can ever remember. The horse ran great last time and I'm sure he'll run well over this trip.

 There is one horse here that I just cannot see being unplaced though. This one is very solid, it should love the step up in trip, the trainer and the owners think it has an outstanding chance and I've had a really decent bet.

 Suggest you lump on Twelve Roses. I'm on at 11/2. Some of the joke firms offer 6/1. I would have happily taken 9/2 and maybe 4/1.

 Would be really shocked if it didn't placed and not shocked at all if it won.

 

Got on in 3 Stan James shops.. Had to do a change of outfits and hats between each one !!

Thanks Neil.

There was a touchdown in the last two minutes of the Baltimore Pittsburgh game last night which triggered the Paddy Power refund.
Don't think Fred got on but hopefully others did.

Why when you stay at a hotel, do they take reserve money on your credit card for "incidentals"?

You don't have to give your credit card up when you walk into a shop just in case you buy something.

Also, when they reserve money on your cc, when you don't spend the money they hope you do, why doesn't it return to your available balance immediately?

It's been 4 days since I left the hotel, and it still hasn't come back.

Tell them you haven't got a credit card and wish to pay in cash. Offer to leave a 'deposit' in cash. It's too much trouble or them to take cash off you and give you a receipt so they usually just wave you through. I don't think there's a rule to say you have to have a credit card to stay at a hotel.

RANT

Today's plans have quickly come to a halt since nursery rang me saying Amelie is ill so I have to come and pick her up. The only real reasons for this are to cover their back to make sure nothing drastic happens to your child whilst in their care and also to get them out in case they are contagious. But it's getting pretty ridic tbh,  they have rang us to collect her at least 30 times this year due to coughs, temp 0.2 degrees over normal, runny nose etc. It's not the fact they do this that annoys me, It's the fact you still have to pay for the full day's care, (I had to pay for 2 weeks when she was really ill as its not her being there which you pay for it's her physical place), but you also have to put leave in with your employer so you can look after them or pay for another carer whilst you go to work. I hear it gets better once they have picked up all the generic bugs in the early days.

Do think the government should do something to help families where both parent's work. Not really many incentives in this country compared to other EU states and childcare is just joke expensive. I can understand why people just have tonnes of kids and live on benefits as you can work out being much better off. To put it in perspective childcare for 2 children per month is £1400, then you have clothes, nappies, food etc so you are looking at £1600 per month to have 2 children, then mortgage and all other bills it's just insane. Me and my missus both have our own cars as well. We were on just under £60k combined and were not even close to being able to afford having another child.

Obv none of this applies to me anymore as I am just a Jeremy Kyle watching, dishes washing bum and tbf all I had planned today was to go out and buy a computer game and play a bit of zoom but waaaaaaaaaaaah waaaaaaaaah, felt like I needed a vent.

It's quite crazy that now I don't have a job we are in a much better position to afford to have 3 children just because we wont have to pay full time childcare x 3.

Obv once your child gets to 4 yrs old they get free school in the UK so it doesn't really matter then but I don't think working parents should have to wait til one of their children turns 4 just so they can afford to have another.

/RANT

I have 3 year old twin girls. From the term after their 3rd birthday we will receive 15 hours a week of nursery education funded by the state. Any nursery, your choice.

The 'Teaser' 4fold landed at 3/1.
Thank you redami.

Morning Teeks

Millidonk would like some recc's as to places in Paris he should go so I told him he should go here  http://www.le-train-bleu.com/uk/index.php

As a man of culture I thought you may be able to help him.

Nah, that's no good. Tell him to get a Spag Bol (no onion) on the Avenue des Champs-Elysses. Can't beat that on a summers day in Paris. Failing that, there is a Burger King oppsite the King George V restaurant, with a glass door. I still bear the scars from attempting to walk through that door when it was closed.  Brekkie in the ACF is very civilised, too.

Ah, The Aviation Club. We had very fond memories of this place as Pete had a nice win there a few years ago. He was on the final table with eight Frenchmen. He arrived late, looked around the table and said ' Well if this is the best France have to offer god help France'.
We had breakfast there every morning and afternoon tea every day. The French thought us very odd.
Our fond memories were somewhat spoiled last year when we returned with Frankie Knight only to be told we had to pay 100 Euros each as an entry fee. This is actually for a years membership but a little expensive if you are just there for a few days as we were.

[Daily Report]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £494.61

Outstanding Bets £2698.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £7 yesterday, with Reggie Bush going over 100y for the Lions at the Bears for +£40 offset by Casey in the Golf, Pozuelo not scoring first at Swansea and two small losing Titans first touchdown scorer bets. Sadly my Ravens selection was obfuscated by talk of complicated teasers and was not placed. BE went 4 out of 5 too but the situation for the Thread has changed there, so a winning Sunday it was not to be

Rounding up all the action in our bets, yesterday

Sunderland's victory over Manchester City has to be good news for our chances of Palace finishing bottom, and Arsenal finishing top 3. Though of course Arsenal losing at Old Trafford wasn't

No assist for Santi Cazorla, no playing time for Amat and Paulinho won't be scoring 7 goals if he doesn't cross the half way line, but on the upside no goals for Aguero in the race for Premier League top scorer

In Serie A Napoli suffered a setback, thumped by Juventus

In La Liga Villareal drew with Ath Madrid, not a bad result and Bilbao beat Levante. Villareal and Bilbao are 10 and 11 points respectively behind Athletico Madrid in the La Liga table, so we have a way to go to make up that gap

In the NFL, not unexpectedly the Bengals, injury riddled and going to a divisional rival fired up and needing the win struggled. They almost got out of a pathetic performance by Andy Dalton with a tipped hail mary to tie and take the game into overtime but for the second game in a row they came up short. They still lead the division, but its closer than it was

The Titans scored 27 points in losing to the Jaguars. 27 is ok, but not really what were were looking for. We need o375 points for the season and after 9 of 16 games they have scored 200 points, So we need 175 in 7 games or 25 points a game from here on out. We are on schedule, but its going to be close. The Titans are at Indy on Sky on Thursday night

The Broncos beat the chargers to go 8-1. We have a humdinger of a few weeks ahead for the Kansas City Bet as they face the Broncos twice in three weeks. Split those two games and our 7-1 AFC West bet is very live. I reckon this week at Denver the Chiefs might be, as an unbeaten side, 7 point underdogs, which would be unusual to say the least

The Eagles are now 5-5 in a historically poor NFC East after beating the Quarterback hamstrung Packers. Now co-leaders of the division and in some offensive form, they might hit the play offs and give our Superbowl bet, placed in haste, a chance. Loomks like any NFC team though will have to go through Seatle, 9-1 and almost invincible at home

Quarterbacks bet...

Brees diced up the Cowboys and handed them their backsides on a plate for breakfast last night. Atlanta and Matt Ryan are struggling, Stafford had a respectable game at Chicago

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   3,249   
2   Drew Brees, QB NO   3,064   
3   Andy Dalton, QB CIN 2,861   
4   Matthew Stafford, QB DET 2,836   
------------------------------------------
5   Philip Rivers, QB SD   2,691   
6   Tony Romo, QB DAL 2,681   
7   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   2,614    

Last night's Dallas capitualtion was good news as Romo slipped down and is on a bye this week. Dalton is still to have his bye so all in all we have chances. Manning looked very gimpy late last night, and has the best defense in the league twice now. We have a chance of a scoop with Brees.

 

The 'complicated' Teaser is 3 out of 3 with one to play early Tuesday morning.

My NFL Column this week talks about the Bengals. We are well placed, but there are clouds on the horizon due to injuries

"Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Every team is dealing with injuries at this point in the season, but the Bengals have been hit with huge injury problems.

All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins went down with a season-ending ACL injury last week to become the fourth defensive starter (along with No. 1 corner Leon Hall, safety Taylor Mays and Defensive End Robert Geathers) to land on the Injured Reserve. Starting middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and Andy Dalton’s blind-side Andrew Whitworth missed last week’s game and will both probably be on the sidelines again this Sunday when the Bengals visit the Ravens.

That said, the Bengals are in a relatively comfortable place in the AFC North standings. They’re 6-3, and the rest of the division — Browns (4-5), Ravens (3-5) and Steelers (2-6) — is a mess. However, a loss on Sunday might open the door for Baltimore to sneak back into the race, especially with a second Bengals/Ravens game on the last game of the season.

The biggest thing working against that potential Ravens revival? They’re just not that good this season. Their biggest issue is the running game which  has resulted in Baltimore averaging a league-low 2.78 yards a carry this year However all the indications are that Ray Rice is finally healthy and ready to have a far more effective second half of the season. With Atkins missing, the stars are aligned for this to begin on Sunday

To see the Ravens priced as 2 point underdogs on the spread to a Bengals team so beat up is an opportunity. The Ravens need to win badly, they are at home and the spread offered reflects the risks"

http://www.betpal.com/nfl-week-ten-betting-preview

Haven't had a bet yet but this is also one of the few I like this week.

I think this game may be a good opportunity to introduce Fred to the delights of NFL teasers.  This is a really great game to use in teasers.  Can anyone give me an idea which books Fred has access to offer teasers (if any)

You'll have to explain this to me, Stu. Use short words, please.

Okay - so teasers are bets offered by some bookmakers (they are very popular in the States) in American football and basketball where in return for having to bet more teams you get a better handicap.  In NFL it is generally 6,6.5 or 7 points.  So lets take the example of the Ravens and Denver games.  The Ravens +2 10/11 and Denver are -7 10/11.  In this example you can "tease" Baltimore to +8 and Denver to -1 with a 6 point teaser and they both would have to cover the news spreads for you to get paid at, say, 10/11.  95% of the time in NFL and almost always in college football and all basketball these bets are a bookmakers benefit but there are certain spots where they represent very good value.  Normally this is when you can tease across key pointspreads such as 3 and 7 but also sometimes when the totals are very low and each point becomes worth more.  The more I think about this the more I realise the potential for epic misclickages....and to be honest I am not sure which firms offer them in the UK but they do offer some value in certain spots and I think the Ravens and potentially Tampa Bay and Philadelphia are good "teaser" teams this week.  

Go on, put up a bet for us please !

Caveat emptor

The only UK book that I can see that offers them is 365.  It is on their site under "teaser card".  The best bet would be a 4 team 6 point teaser which pays 3-1.  Eagles +7, Baltimore +8, Tampa Bay +8.5 and NY Giants -1.

Can anyone help me find this "Teaser Card" on Bet365 please?

I bet on this yesterday but the 'Teaser Card' appears to have disappeared now maybe because some of the games have started. It was at the bottom of the menu that runs down the left hand side.
When it reappears next week I'll tell you exactly where it is.

My NFL Column this week talks about the Bengals. We are well placed, but there are clouds on the horizon due to injuries

"Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Every team is dealing with injuries at this point in the season, but the Bengals have been hit with huge injury problems.

All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins went down with a season-ending ACL injury last week to become the fourth defensive starter (along with No. 1 corner Leon Hall, safety Taylor Mays and Defensive End Robert Geathers) to land on the Injured Reserve. Starting middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and Andy Dalton’s blind-side Andrew Whitworth missed last week’s game and will both probably be on the sidelines again this Sunday when the Bengals visit the Ravens.

That said, the Bengals are in a relatively comfortable place in the AFC North standings. They’re 6-3, and the rest of the division — Browns (4-5), Ravens (3-5) and Steelers (2-6) — is a mess. However, a loss on Sunday might open the door for Baltimore to sneak back into the race, especially with a second Bengals/Ravens game on the last game of the season.

The biggest thing working against that potential Ravens revival? They’re just not that good this season. Their biggest issue is the running game which  has resulted in Baltimore averaging a league-low 2.78 yards a carry this year However all the indications are that Ray Rice is finally healthy and ready to have a far more effective second half of the season. With Atkins missing, the stars are aligned for this to begin on Sunday

To see the Ravens priced as 2 point underdogs on the spread to a Bengals team so beat up is an opportunity. The Ravens need to win badly, they are at home and the spread offered reflects the risks"

http://www.betpal.com/nfl-week-ten-betting-preview

Haven't had a bet yet but this is also one of the few I like this week.

I think this game may be a good opportunity to introduce Fred to the delights of NFL teasers.  This is a really great game to use in teasers.  Can anyone give me an idea which books Fred has access to offer teasers (if any)

You'll have to explain this to me, Stu. Use short words, please.

Okay - so teasers are bets offered by some bookmakers (they are very popular in the States) in American football and basketball where in return for having to bet more teams you get a better handicap.  In NFL it is generally 6,6.5 or 7 points.  So lets take the example of the Ravens and Denver games.  The Ravens +2 10/11 and Denver are -7 10/11.  In this example you can "tease" Baltimore to +8 and Denver to -1 with a 6 point teaser and they both would have to cover the news spreads for you to get paid at, say, 10/11.  95% of the time in NFL and almost always in college football and all basketball these bets are a bookmakers benefit but there are certain spots where they represent very good value.  Normally this is when you can tease across key pointspreads such as 3 and 7 but also sometimes when the totals are very low and each point becomes worth more.  The more I think about this the more I realise the potential for epic misclickages....and to be honest I am not sure which firms offer them in the UK but they do offer some value in certain spots and I think the Ravens and potentially Tampa Bay and Philadelphia are good "teaser" teams this week.  

Go on, put up a bet for us please !

Caveat emptor

The only UK book that I can see that offers them is 365.  It is on their site under "teaser card".  The best bet would be a 4 team 6 point teaser which pays 3-1.  Eagles +7, Baltimore +8, Tampa Bay +8.5 and NY Giants -1.

Thank you Sir.

My NFL Column this week talks about the Bengals. We are well placed, but there are clouds on the horizon due to injuries

"Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Every team is dealing with injuries at this point in the season, but the Bengals have been hit with huge injury problems.

All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins went down with a season-ending ACL injury last week to become the fourth defensive starter (along with No. 1 corner Leon Hall, safety Taylor Mays and Defensive End Robert Geathers) to land on the Injured Reserve. Starting middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and Andy Dalton’s blind-side Andrew Whitworth missed last week’s game and will both probably be on the sidelines again this Sunday when the Bengals visit the Ravens.

That said, the Bengals are in a relatively comfortable place in the AFC North standings. They’re 6-3, and the rest of the division — Browns (4-5), Ravens (3-5) and Steelers (2-6) — is a mess. However, a loss on Sunday might open the door for Baltimore to sneak back into the race, especially with a second Bengals/Ravens game on the last game of the season.

The biggest thing working against that potential Ravens revival? They’re just not that good this season. Their biggest issue is the running game which  has resulted in Baltimore averaging a league-low 2.78 yards a carry this year However all the indications are that Ray Rice is finally healthy and ready to have a far more effective second half of the season. With Atkins missing, the stars are aligned for this to begin on Sunday

To see the Ravens priced as 2 point underdogs on the spread to a Bengals team so beat up is an opportunity. The Ravens need to win badly, they are at home and the spread offered reflects the risks"

http://www.betpal.com/nfl-week-ten-betting-preview

Haven't had a bet yet but this is also one of the few I like this week.

I think this game may be a good opportunity to introduce Fred to the delights of NFL teasers.  This is a really great game to use in teasers.  Can anyone give me an idea which books Fred has access to offer teasers (if any)

You'll have to explain this to me, Stu. Use short words, please.

Okay - so teasers are bets offered by some bookmakers (they are very popular in the States) in American football and basketball where in return for having to bet more teams you get a better handicap.  In NFL it is generally 6,6.5 or 7 points.  So lets take the example of the Ravens and Denver games.  The Ravens +2 10/11 and Denver are -7 10/11.  In this example you can "tease" Baltimore to +8 and Denver to -1 with a 6 point teaser and they both would have to cover the news spreads for you to get paid at, say, 10/11.  95% of the time in NFL and almost always in college football and all basketball these bets are a bookmakers benefit but there are certain spots where they represent very good value.  Normally this is when you can tease across key pointspreads such as 3 and 7 but also sometimes when the totals are very low and each point becomes worth more.  The more I think about this the more I realise the potential for epic misclickages....and to be honest I am not sure which firms offer them in the UK but they do offer some value in certain spots and I think the Ravens and potentially Tampa Bay and Philadelphia are good "teaser" teams this week.  

Go on, put up a bet for us please !

Caveat emptor

Thanks Tighty. 4/4 NFL bets !

My view is that the margin between these bets is so fine that we need to bet them all, I think it's been said before and I think discussed a fair few times but having lots of bets is probably more profitable than having one or two big bets.

It's seldom that we would see a total wipe out on the positions Neil takes but it wouldn't be uncommon for the 2 bigger ones to get turned over especially when they are not super strong in relation to the other bets or indeed last weeks selections.

Much of that is fair comment, but we addressed those things a while back when we debated it. Neil is 10% ROI on the season so far, so that's meaningful.

We'd freeze out all our other regulars though, there'd be no room for them, leading to the tiresome "clique" suggestions.

We do OK on NFL, too, this is not dick-swinging, but over a sample size of 116 bets, since Day One, Fred makes +16% ROI on NFL. This includes, of course, many of Neil's suggestions, later to become Betting Emporium. The important thing about that 16% ROI is that it has come from 10 or 20 regulars here, & we would not want to squeeze them out. Doing all of the BE stuff would just leave no room for others to contribute to the NFL fun.

There is touchy-feely, too, as Doobs alluded to, if we do all of Neil's stuff, & (say) he went paid subscription, we are effectively giving away all the BE stuff & folks will not want to sign up. Very important that we behave fairly with Neil & Joe, as they always have with blonde, us, & me.

Interesting debate.

Incidentally, fwiw, OFF-THREAD I do all of Neil's stuff when time permits. Misclicks, the lot.....

Ah, ok. Many other considerations.

I think you should get on both bets for the Green Bay game Tikay. Infact it think with Neil's staking plan we should just get on all the bets.

I agree with this. I'd be prepared to bet Mr Channings smallest bets will be +EV over the season.
Just reduce your stakes and bet them all. Must reduce variance.