Show Posts
Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.
The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.
Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.
Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.
Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.
If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…
The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.
Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.
Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.
Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.
If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…
If they both play 30+ events then surely evens they WILL win a bracelet is far too big given the fact they will play all the events with sub 200 runners in them. IF the $1m one drop counts as well then surely they cant be much bigger than 20/1 to win that given last time it was $1m there was only 46 runners 2 years ago. If we assume that to be the case then thats 10% likelyhood of a bracelet from just that event alone. If you assume there are 10 events with less than 200 runners which they will prob be 50/1 for each then thats another 4% per event so that another 40%. So that makes them even money (50%) just for those events in total before considering all the other bigger field events they can play. Not sure exactly how much value it is maths wise but yes def looks the side to be on.
This maths grates a bit. Chance of not winning in 10 events is 0.96^10 = .665; multiply by 0.9, makes 6/4 they don't win in these 11 events. I think the maths is optimistic, as 4% feels high to me, and they aren't both going to play all 10 surely? I might try something better later, but wouldn't be surprised if I ended up at around evens. Ivey knows.
I would prefer a better calc before commtting money on an even money shot over 4 months.
Just for clarity i wasn't recommending a bet on the yes just that if you were interested it would seem hard to make a case for no at the prices. Plus my calcs massively depend on the $1m onedrop being part of the bet which i assume it is.
One drop is included.
There are 12 10K 'championship' events excluding the main. The Six Max is likely to be the only one of those that is going to draw a significantly larger number of runners. The rest are mostly specialist mixed games. You have then also got the One drop, $25K Mix Max, and $50K Players on top of the $10K's.
Obviously, they both play all the games. Barring deep runs elsewhere, both will play all of these. Extended reg for these bigger events will help too.
]
]
]
]
