Ladbrokes have Rickie Lambert enhanced FGS odds from 12pm at 8/1 for a max of £25.

Recommend £25, EW if they will let you but can't see the T's & C's yet.

FYI - no EW available.

Ladbrokes have Rickie Lambert enhanced FGS odds from 12pm at 8/1 for a max of £25.

Recommend £25, EW if they will let you but can't see the T's & C's yet.

I am working from a general assumption that if we place a bet and the price goes off shorter we can say that our bet was good value.

As a reader of TFT, I have gleaned the following:-

- If we can beat the price on Betfair then we can generally say that the bet is a good one. I understand there are some caveats to this around illiquid markets.

- If we can take advantage of offers like free bets, enhanced EW terms, money back specials etc, then we can usually use maths to prove that we can beat betfair and therefore have value. This explains it very well - http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.0

- If we can use our understanding of a market to show that the price is incorrect then we can place a bet, expecting the price to shorten, and therefore prove the bet was good value.

I assume that the majority of the bets that we place as ‘thinking punters’ will be focussed on the third point. I have seen lots of examples where it is really clear that the bookies have made a mistake and we have taken advantage – i.e. a horse is priced at 8/1 when we get on, it shortens dramatically before the off and we cheer it home. I guess this is just because the people who draw up these odds made an error and our extensive racing knowledge means we can spot it and get on. Another example – some score line prices on a relatively obscure football match look incorrect based on previous data. Again – priced up incorrectly and we can get on.

Another example – we look at a Premiership striker and suggest a bet on the overs for his goals for the season. Or we look at a cricket match and suggest a bet on a win for a certain team. Or we look at a Rugby League match and suggest a bet on a try scorer etc. etc. What I am struggling to get my head around is understanding why and how we can show that these bets are really value? In the majority of cases we are not taking advantage of any information that the bookies don’t have access to – are we saying that bookies are pricing up markets incorrectly day in day out?

TFT and pro punters seem to prove that a positive ROI over a large sample of bets is possible. They must be picking out a solid number of good value bets to achieve this. I don’t understand how we can have multiple bets every day and continue to find these edges. I like the thought of approaching bets analytically but I get the feeling I will probably be able to come up with <5 bets per year that really will be true value. 

Is there some sort of process/checklist we can follow to finding value bets? I guess that becoming a specialist in a certain market is a good start.

Tikay - the Lambert bet was a bit of a damp squib in the end. As soon as Rooney bounced out for training like a spring chicken on Monday, the bet was no good. I was just relieved that the goals went in early. If Rooney had been genuinely injured then I still thought the bet was OK. It perhaps would have been more sensible to wait until Monday to check whether Rooney really was injured, I guess the price probably would have still been there. First bet is a void, better than a loss I suppose!

Glad to see him do well anyway. He gave a great interview post match to our Saints media guy and welled up talking about how much it meant to him to play for England. Very refreshing.

Interestingly his line is 11.5 goals in the prem this year. I can't find one for Jay Rod but I do like that EW bet on top goalscorer.

I cant see a market on Carberry 4's and 6's in the powerplay yet either which I have been trying to keep an eye out for. 

No Lambert so bet likely a void. Bugger, must try harder.

Big brother ends this weekend I think. More grown up than big brother lets see if there is a market for the u12 tiddlywinks world championships

Celeb big brother starts a week tomorrow though. Big Ron Atkinson one of the many rumoured to be involved. 12/1 avaliable for the ultimate redemption story.

[start]

Indications are that Lambert will probably not start tonight. Rooney is injury free and looks like he will be in from the start with either Defoe or Welbeck relegating Lambert to an off the bench role.

If Lambert doesn't start and someone else scores, is the First Goalscorer bet void? If he comes off the bench, is the EW part still live?

As far as I am aware, he has to start the match for the bet to be a goer. Failing that, he is a non-runner, & the bet is off. I hope.....

Think he has to be on the pitch when the first goal is scored for the bet to be in play.

Like I say, I think if he's subbed and there's a goal afterwards, you'd lose; your player had the chance to score and didn't. After all, you are betting in a market against No Goalscorer.

Thanks.

Indications are that Lambert will probably not start tonight. Rooney is injury free and looks like he will be in from the start with either Defoe or Welbeck relegating Lambert to an off the bench role.

If Lambert doesn't start and someone else scores, is the First Goalscorer bet void? If he comes off the bench, is the EW part still live?

Really enjoyed this.

Can you get it onto Itunes? Easier to subscribe and download so we don't forget, can listen anywhere and will be more visible.

Can you aim to release the show as soon after recording as possible? Keeps it really current and relevant. Regularity is also really important obviously.

Maybe break it up with some features - review of recent bets, tips of the week, the newbie section e.g. introduction to spread betting, guest slots etc. A well structured podcast is generally an easier listen.

Saying that, I think really like the personal touches and banter, that's the key to keeping people downloading week after week. Its cool hearing about what your backing, stories from the betting shop, recent trips to sporting events, rants about brylcream...

I was impressed at what an easy and enjoyable listen it was for a first effort... looking forward to future installments.

Ahh, apologies. One fifth, 1,2,3.

I was given one third, 1,2,3,4,5. Am I special?

Hi Mark.

Welcome to Fred. I've sen you on PHA (Hand Histories, never miss 'em me), the WSOP Fantasy thing, but never here before.

You get Newbie Rights & an Auto-Bet, so good luck with this. tHe price is good, too, he is generally a 5/1 shot.

PS - What are your views on Southampton this season? Many think they'll struggle, others are more bullish. Views?

Thanks, I have been here forever actually. I must be one of the very few who reads every page but never has a bet!

On Southampton, I think we should be strong this year. We have been quite sensible this Summer, Lovren and Wanayama both looking good and we needed to get stronger at the back after shipping a lot of goals last season. If we can keep Lambert, Rodriguez, and Lallana fit then I think we will score a lot of goals again. I would expect to finish around about 14th ish, would be happy with that. I saw the recommend on us to be relegated, I would expect the price to be bigger than 10/1 come late September but 10/1 still looked big.

Would be surprised to see a debutant on penalties. Gerrard most likely, no?

True, may be a bit ambitious to expect him to be on penalties. Don't think it would be a shock though given his record. He is the sort of player who will be pushing to take them, same with free kicks. Hopefully Gerrard gets subbed at half time.

Rooney definitely ruled out of Charity Shield tomorrow.

I would like to recommend £20 each way on Rickie Lambert to be the first goal scorer for England v Scotland. Ladbrokes are best priced 6-1.

Wayne Rooney is still carrying a hamstring injury. He is not expected to be involved in the charity shield tomorrow and can’t see him playing more than a bit part role in this one. Similar story for Defoe who has been carrying a niggle for a while. Indications are that Lambert will start and should play at least 60mins. I would not be surprised at all to see him play the whole game given the other strikers injuries and Welbeck playing in the charity shield tomorrow.

He will be more driven than anyone else to score. He has talked at length in the past about his desire to play for England and has grinded his way through the leagues to get there. He is going to be pushing to make an impact.

I think he will match up well against a poor Scotland defense. I expect him to play right up top with the other striker playing just off of him. Good with both feet and dangerous in the air.

Also think there is a good chance he will be given free kicks and penalties. He is 31/31 taking penalties for Southampton. There is a risk that Lampard/Gerrard/Baines may want them though.

6/1 is the standout price in a market that has only just gone up.

*Disclaimer - I don't bet on sports ever and am a Saints fan.

Thanks for feedback, I went with the check/call..

*** RIVER *** [   ] []
Mark_Port157: checks
rafalskyyy: bets 899
Mark_Port157: calls 899

*** RIVER *** [ ] [ ]
Mark_Port157: checks
neckbr4ke: bets 575
Mark_Port157: calls 575

And I would call the river on hand 1 now.

Raise and try to get it in on hand 2.

You should be happy getting it all in right?

Don't like peeling so much OOP. Early stages, just play it straight forward. If you have been trying to disguise your hand, then what question are you asking for the river? Isn't it an obvious raise?

Question on both rivers is whether we lead or not. Unsure whether river is Bet-call, Bet-fold or Check-call.

Yeah, I would 3bet pre in most instances

Not terrible to peel though? Villains are decent, we are out of position in early stages of MTT. Hand is nicely disguised no?