Big swing back to Trump on Betfair. Biden now 1.69/1.7 having been less than 1.5 two or three days ago. I don't see anything much in the polls, but lots of talk of measures that are stopping poorer people voting.
Florida is still very close too, and voter suppression measures could be more significant in a close race?
Dunno if it's anything to do with it, but Biden's Campaign Manager Jen O’Malley Dillon tweeted before the weekend that the race "is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest......In key battleground states, where this election will be decided, we remain neck and neck with Donald Trump". It's been generally regarded as a complacency-avoidance move, but maybe some took it to heart.
So many different votes and branches, especially when you're as dopey as me!
I don't think that's true. I'm continually surprised by the level of knowledge some people on here, including you, have about what's going on over there. Just look at the posts on this page.
So many different votes and branches, especially when you're as dopey as me!
I don't think that's true. I'm continually surprised by the level of knowledge some people on here, including you, have about what's going on over there. Just look at the posts on this page.
He should win easily against a Dem in Nebraska in November - his isn't one of the threatened GOP seats. That'll see him good for six years, ie til well after the next Presidential election. His threat then, as now, would be in the Primary - Sasse is an intellectual who has stood out for traditional Republicanism while most others have gone along with Trump, so it depends on how the land lies in 2026.
Ben Sasse, Republican Senator, has torn Trump apart on a "private" town hall call with a few thousand Nebraskan Republicans (so it's designed to be leaked). Sasse has been one of the few who has let everyone know his real feelings all along by openly criticising Trump from the start, but he hasn't spoken out when it really mattered. He followed the party line and voted against impeachment and he kept quiet when it seemed like he might have a right-wing challenger a few weeks ago. Now he has secured the Republican nomination, he is positioning himself as a moderate to ensure he fends off the Democrat. It's somewhat helpful to Biden for this to come out now, in that it's a devastating critique of a Republican President by a Republican Senator, but it would have had a lot more impact a year ago.
I'm not sure why there would be softening in betting. There has been a small amount of slippage in Biden's lead, so it's down to 11 points, which is still huge. Just one poll by the Democracy Institute has Trump 1% ahead nationwide. The Express sponsored it and has been banging on about it, and a few right-wing sites have caught on and started quoting it and asking why the media aren't paying it attention. Maybe that's had some effect. 538 excludes Democracy Institute and Trafalgar polls from its averages as they favour Republicans by more than reasonable margins.
The States that are in the mix are virtually all ones that Trump won last time, so he's trying to hold on on numerous fronts at the same time. The campaign made the mistake early on of targeting some States Hillary won, like Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota, and wasted money that could have been used elsewhere on a goose chase. Instead, it's now all about whether he can hold Michigan (unlikely), Wisconsin (unlikely), Pennsylvania (unlikely), Arizona (unlikely), Florida (toss-up) and North Carolina (possible). Even worse, Iowa and Ohio are toss-ups and even Georgia and Texas are wobbly. Assuming he keeps those last four and North Carolina, he has to win Florida, where he is 2% behind, but Republicans generally poll a bit lighter than their votes there and Trump achieved 2% more than his polls nationwide last time, so it's very feasible for him to take it again. On top of that, he then needs to take either Michigan and Wisconsin (which usually come out with the same result) or Arizona and Pennsylvania. The nightmare would be if he somehow won Wisconsin and Arizona but lost Michigan and Penn, resulting in a tie (there are a few other ways a tie could result, but they're even less likely).
For Trump to win, everyone would have to go right for him. Lately, everything in the election has been going wrong.
The Senate race in Iowa continues to be very close. Joni Ernst needs to hold her seat for the Republicans to have a chance of keeping control of the Senate, but the race has been unexpectedly close, due to Ernst's lacklustre performance and the Democrats having unearthed a super candidate in the previously-unknown Theresa Greenfield. Spending has gone through the roof - despite Iowa accounting for just 1% of the nation's population, this is now the second most expensive Senate race in history (the most expensive being the current race in North Carolina). Ernst has been seen as something of a rising Republican star since she won the seat in 2014, but she's a poor candidate in my view - not a good speaker and every time I see her, she's doing something that undermines her chances. The candidates have been neck-and-neck, and Greenfield is a couple of points ahead in recent polling, which no-one would have predicted a few months ago.
Iowa held its second debate on Thursday, and one question showed that these debates can still be important. Both candidates were asked a variation of the old loaf of bread / pint of milk gotcha question, tailored for the farming State of Iowa. Greenfield knew the price of corn to the penny, but Ernst hadn't a clue about the price of soybeans, and tried to bluff her way out of it. This one disastrous question could spell a well-deserved end for Joni's political career.
The US has the greatest fighting machine in the world but, for the last week, the Chiefs of Staff of all its forces except one have had to work from home.
The Vice Commandant (second-in-charge) of the Coast Guard went down with the virus and, as he had been mixing with all the military Chiefs at the Pentagon, they have all had to quarantine. The heads of the Army, Air Force, Navy, Marines, Space Force, National Guard and Cyber Command, plus the Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, have been working from home. The only one to avoid it was the Coast Guard Commandant, who was 'safe' in London when it happened.
You have to admire the work ethic of Senator Mike Lee from Utah (seen here at the Barrett nomination event at the White House).
Click to see full-size image.
Mike was unlucky enough to contract Covid recently, from an unknown source.
And yet, here he was back at work yesterday, defending Judge Barrett at her confirmation hearing, just eleven days after his positive test, having quarantined for the previous ten days.
Such dedication. It's thanks to people like Mike that America is where it is today.
Saw him being interviewed somewhere talking about having been given the cure, and he was making sure everyone would get it.
I know it's a treatment/medicine, but I'm calling it the cure.
All the Alex Jones mob think Fauci is like Bill Gates' sidekick, and they're going to murder everyone's kids.
One of my mates is so deep into it, I'm waiting for him to pop out in Australia.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538 Trump can still win. But on the other hand, if you're deriving a model from history, it implicitly presumes some baseline level of competence from a presidental campaign that may not be compatible with, say, getting into a public spat with Dr. Fauci 3 weeks out from the election.
The President's first live speech since he became immune to Covid was to a small group of Latino and Black supporters at the White House. It was supposed to be less small, in that 2,000 people were invited but only 800 turned up but, anyway, they were there. The White House said that everyone would be tested beforehand but it turned out that they were temperature-checked and given a questionnaire to complete, but that was all. You would think they would have learned their lesson after the previous episode, but apparently not.
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