If you weren't sure who you want to win, here's another good reason to hope it's not Trump.
Click to see full-size image.
Probably greened up at one point short on the machine and invested it all in bleach. Or not, as nobody's ever mentioned it as a posible cure.
Almost half a billion was matched on Betfair, a good chunk of it by folk with far better knowledge than anyone on here. Dipping in and saying the entire market was wrong is a bit...
Many commentators spoke beforehand about how Election Day might finish up looking much better for Trump than the final result. It was always possible that Trump could win Florida (and Georgia and North Carolina) quite early and he was always expected to end the day with the lead in the Rust Belt States, pending most of the mail-ins, though he would probably lose those States in the end. This was one of the standard options of how it might play out. There was even a name for the illusion of a Trump lead that was expected, as it was discussed so much - the ‘red mirage’. I was surprised, therefore, to see some people on social media almost awarding the election to Trump during the night. They clearly didn’t understand what was happening. Democrat disappointment at not putting it away by taking Florida was read as depression over the whole outcome, and the expected Rust Belt lead for Trump was taken as evidence that the election was getting away from Biden. This was a misunderstanding. There was no roller coaster - Biden's margins were lower than expected, so some expected bankers became closer and even marginal in some cases, but he was always favourite in those States, and he had many ways of winning. He just had to bring in three out of the Swing States he was ahead in - Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn, Arizona and Nevada. Trump also needed to win three of them (from behind) as well as holding Florida, Ohio, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. This last lot would just have been bonuses for Biden, indicating a landslide and settling the overall result early, but he never needed any of them. The general pattern through the States has been much as anticipated, just with lower margins for Biden and no significant breakthroughs. Having seen the prices quoted on here and on Facebook, it's obvious that the market was wrong.
Weren't you saying it was all over a month ago and Trump had only a 10% chance? It is much easier to see what happened now than yesterday morning, or what was going to happen a month ago. Even now a couple of these States are so close that the result could have gone either way(the market suggests they still could). I don't really see how someone making Trump favourite yesterday morning is any worse than someone else saying it was all over a month ago.
Betting isn't perfect, you aim to make 5% or so and there are many fuck ups on the way to that. It is way easier finding winners when you haven't put any money down and after the event has almost finished.
It was the conventional wisdom a month ago that Trump had little chance, based on the polls. Trump was never favourite at any point yesterday morning, or any other time for several months. Both conclusions were wrong, but one was logical, based on the (incorrect) evidence provided, and one wasn't. Anyhow, I have no interest in betting but I've got myself into a discussion about it. I'd rather discuss the politics.
If you weren't sure who you want to win, here's another good reason to hope it's not Trump.
Click to see full-size image.
Probably greened up at one point short on the machine and invested it all in bleach. Or not, as nobody's ever mentioned it as a posible cure.
Almost half a billion was matched on Betfair, a good chunk of it by folk with far better knowledge than anyone on here. Dipping in and saying the entire market was wrong is a bit...
Many commentators spoke beforehand about how Election Day might finish up looking much better for Trump than the final result. It was always possible that Trump could win Florida (and Georgia and North Carolina) quite early and he was always expected to end the day with the lead in the Rust Belt States, pending most of the mail-ins, though he would probably lose those States in the end. This was one of the standard options of how it might play out. There was even a name for the illusion of a Trump lead that was expected, as it was discussed so much - the ‘red mirage’. I was surprised, therefore, to see some people on social media almost awarding the election to Trump during the night. They clearly didn’t understand what was happening. Democrat disappointment at not putting it away by taking Florida was read as depression over the whole outcome, and the expected Rust Belt lead for Trump was taken as evidence that the election was getting away from Biden. This was a misunderstanding. There was no roller coaster - Biden's margins were lower than expected, so some expected bankers became closer and even marginal in some cases, but he was always favourite in those States, and he had many ways of winning. He just had to bring in three out of the Swing States he was ahead in - Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn, Arizona and Nevada. Trump also needed to win three of them (from behind) as well as holding Florida, Ohio, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. This last lot would just have been bonuses for Biden, indicating a landslide and settling the overall result early, but he never needed any of them. The general pattern through the States has been much as anticipated, just with lower margins for Biden and no significant breakthroughs. Having seen the prices quoted on here and on Facebook, it's obvious that the market was wrong.
I know eff all about politics and even less about Biden but this can only be a pleasing result.
Gonna be so dull when Donald leaves the stage
Anarchist!
It’s true though. He’s given us so much entertainment and so much to talk about. I read an article by a White House reporter from Bush Snr’s time who said she used to go there every morning and hang around hoping something would happen. Sometimes the highlight was George having a bad golf practice. Donald has given us crazy stories twenty times a day from Day 1 right through. In some ways I wish he’d win so it carries on.
I would agree with you if it didn't matter so much but I truly believe that the Trump presidency has already cost countless lives. Just imagine how callously arrogant he will be if he is "vindicated" and gets a second term.
At no point in the night was Trump the favourite, as in more likely to win. Those bookies being quoted don’t know what they’re doing.
Biden is still a moderate favourite, as he has been throughout. Wisconsin should be in the bag soon and there are favourable signs in Penn.
It is Betfair leading the bookies not the other way round. A bookie who didn't follow betfair here wouldn't know what they were doing not the other way round? People like me would be just hoovering up free money.
Betfair/bookies whatever. I don’t really know how betting works but whoever has been setting those odds hasn’t a clue, so I agree there were easy opportunities for wins.
It is just a reflection of a really tight race in the swing states. When it is so close that the result is going to come down to one or two states, a little bit of voting news can swing the market massively.
I think it is a bit much saying people don't have a clue, I thought 1.6 or so Biden was good value, you thought it was much more likely Biden would win. We all get stuff wrong, but it doesn't mean we have no clue.
I didn't mean you, or anyone on here. I thought people were just reporting rates that had been available at certain points - hadn't processed that you had made a bet at that rate. I don't know what 1.6 means. If you're winning .6 for your 1, that might be about right. If you're winning 1.6 for your 1, fill your boots. I do know that rates I can see reported of 3.01 and 4.5 mean you'd get back multiples, which wouldn't have reflected any kind of reality, and make me wish I'd set up an account.
I know eff all about politics and even less about Biden but this can only be a pleasing result.
Gonna be so dull when Donald leaves the stage
Anarchist!
It’s true though. He’s given us so much entertainment and so much to talk about. I read an article by a White House reporter from Bush Snr’s time who said she used to go there every morning and hang around hoping something would happen. Sometimes the highlight was George having a bad golf practice. Donald has given us crazy stories twenty times a day from Day 1 right through. In some ways I wish he’d win so it carries on.
At no point in the night was Trump the favourite, as in more likely to win. Those bookies being quoted don’t know what they’re doing.
Biden is still a moderate favourite, as he has been throughout. Wisconsin should be in the bag soon and there are favourable signs in Penn.
It is Betfair leading the bookies not the other way round. A bookie who didn't follow betfair here wouldn't know what they were doing not the other way round? People like me would be just hoovering up free money.
Betfair/bookies whatever. I don’t really know how betting works but whoever has been setting those odds hasn’t a clue, so I agree there were easy opportunities for wins.
I wish they would tell us more about which votes have been counted in these States. In general, Biden should dominate in mail-in / early votes and in urban areas; Trump in live on-the-day and rural. Also, areas are characterised by certain ethnic/employment/education groups. If we don't know which groups have been counted, one of the candidates being ahead doesn't mean as much as it seems.
States have a wide range of cut-off dates for accepting mail-in votes, from Election Day to 14 days later (if postmarked by today). The US Postal Service was hauled into court to account for delays in the system, and ordered to sweep its facilities by 3pm today to process all ballots. It failed to do so due to high volumes of election and other work and the Judge has ordered USPS to "be prepared to discuss the apparent lack of compliance with the court's order" at noon tomorrow. Lord knows what will happen then. The system shows 296k ballots posted but not delivered.
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