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46  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 11, 2019, 02:01:24 AM
Interested in people’s thoughts

What will make or break this election?

Will it be a hung parliament?

Can Tories still govern with 320-325?

Who’ll be the biggest name MP to lose seat?

Will there be a second referendum?
47  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 10, 2019, 09:39:09 PM
The remain parties and tactical voting seems not to be great. So many different opinions on who to vote for, but yet 1 in 5 say they will vote tactical. I just hope that tactical voting is being marketed on the doorstep, as it seems online there are so many alternatives

Another YouGov MRP poll out at 10pm I think, suggesting it’s BXP are squeezing the Tory vote
48  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 10, 2019, 12:16:02 AM
4.6m views of the Joe Pike 4 year old in hospital Boris interview video on twitter in half a day.

It makes no difference though?

It's twitter though, i'd be pretty surprised if more than about 7 people on twitter are floating voters

Oh come on 7? It now has over 7m views, why are people watching it? This is also on the national news too.

There are still tens of thousands of Labour leave voters who are playing with their conscious whether they can vote Conservative. I think folk who are very unsure or who might tick the Labour box, reluctantly, will be swayed by this. Or at the very minimum choose to vote for the BXP.

I think this is the moment. I think he's made a big ass blooper here and his advisors must be furious with how he's handled it.

Forget about Andrew Neil roasting Corbyn or Corbyn being neutral, this the calamity of the campaign

If they don't get that majority on Friday, then I think this will have swung it.   
49  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Champo, L1 & L2, 2018/19 on: December 10, 2019, 12:04:05 AM
Remarkable airing of dirty laundry developing at Oakwell.  First of all, the Board finally break their silence over the departure of Daniel Stendel.

https://www.barnsleyfc.co.uk/news/2019/december/clubstatement0912/

A few hours later, Hearts (who've now appointed him as manager) issue a statement of their own.

https://www.heartsfc.co.uk/news/article/club-statement-1-2-3-4-5

Then Stendel himself issues his own statement via his Facebook page.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2378650895732001&id=1922240871373008

So after weeks of interminable silence, we're now getting a bit of a soap opera to accompany our descent back into League One.





I wonder if it was Wednesday that tried to appoint him? It did tke us ages to get a new manager.
50  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 09, 2019, 11:03:07 PM
4.6m views of the Joe Pike 4 year old in hospital Boris interview video on twitter in half a day.

It makes no difference though?

7.2m now.
51  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 09, 2019, 10:45:03 PM
I’m not sure why NewsNight keep saying this election balances on South Yorkshire. It doesn’t.
52  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 08, 2019, 01:33:48 AM
YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling,...

Do you mean people discussing the raw data and showing it's substantially disproportionate (like the snap poll on the debate)?

Or do you mean people saying - I support Labour, and they've never asked me - kind of discussion?

I probably mean a bit of both.

In my opinion Corbyn won that debate, not because I’m voting for his party, but because I thought he was clearer and got more of audience reaction. Folk go on about the catch Tory slogan of “get Brexit done”, but when Boris had a slam dunk for this, he got very minimal response.

Polls are important, they give us indication of what the nation are thinking. But it has to be fair. You can’t go out and poll 12 x the number of 18-24’s. Go and represent the nation if 10% are 18-24 and your sample is 1000, go and ask 100.

As for Twitter, I think it’s a lot more useful than other resources. I’ve seen lots of reliable tweets in which they bang on about how false these polls have been since 2015 elections. Then how folk mention the ages they ask or the fact they don’t ask them if they vote Labour.

These polls will never ever be able to take into consideration so many factors.

If a high majority of voters are switched on tactically, it’ll be a hung parliament, but nobody knows

If Labour and LD’s had worked together in pulling candidates out, Tories would never get a majority.

But as Bookies and experts see it, they say it’s a 70% chance of a Tory majority
53  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 07, 2019, 11:25:34 PM
Twitter 'polls' are not polls and should be ignored.

Pollsters are well aware they poll age groups in different ratios and that's why demographic poll weighting is a thing.

I’m talking about polls taken out by pollsters and then discussed by Twitter.

Demographic is important and who won that debate isn’t that important, BUT look at who was polled, it’s a joke. Leading to a suggestion Corbyn won.

As everyone does seem to report, these polls are usually wrong.

At 10pm I’m Thursday , I think we Willis get  good indication.

I’m certainly not seeing a huge majority for Tories
54  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 07, 2019, 09:26:50 PM
YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling, the results are usually similar, BUT polls aren’t exactly the same. Some have labour on 29%, some have them 35% and as I recall the polls suggested May was on average 8 points ahead and she didn’t get a majority

I am however probably, hoping
55  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Champo, L1 & L2, 2018/19 on: December 07, 2019, 06:53:31 PM
We are now facing a fairly realistic prospect of Play-offs, but no chance if we get this expected points deduction
56  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 07, 2019, 06:52:20 PM
The problem with this polling is that it can’t successfully get any idea of the electorate, considering many factors

Voter reg, tactical vote, swing to BXP

For Labour to be within 7/8 points and to take into consideration the above, I’d say it’s looking a lot better for labour than you’d ever thought, percentage chance of a hung parliament, surely more than 30%?

Sadly though, media coverage is saying different. Lots of folk moving from Labour and “I’ll never vote Corbyn”, heard nothing of people saying they’re moving to labour 🤷‍♂️
57  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 07, 2019, 06:47:29 PM
YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled
58  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 07, 2019, 02:00:13 PM
YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament
59  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 07, 2019, 01:00:48 AM
Corbyn is winning this debate, the response from the audience is clear

Corbyn - clear and decisive

Boris - blabbering

😂

On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:

Boris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%

via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers

The problem with 52% is that they’ve always been seen as stupid

YouGov polling is biased anyway
60  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: December 06, 2019, 09:10:59 PM
Corbyn is winning this debate, the response from the audience is clear

Corbyn - clear and decisive

Boris - blabbering
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