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Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged
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on: November 28, 2019, 01:39:41 PM
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Times projecting 68 Tory majority
Tories 359 Labour 211 Lib Dem 13 SNP 43
The margin of error they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context. Obviously even 328 get Boris back in number 10 .....but I wonder how many does he realistically needs as a minimum to complete a full term of 5 years without the worries of being out voted in the commons? Some Tory MP's will leave this world, some might change parties, some might be a rebel on certain votes.....335? Still think it will be tight. Boris said to be looking for a majority of 9 Where does he say this? The difference between and a 9 seat majority and a hung parliament must be fractions of a percent in the overall vote (like 0.2% or similar), and a majority of 9 leaves you very vulnerable to defectors and mortality/sickness. I am sure he'd take 9, but he really isn't looking for 9. Of course he isn’t looking specifically for 9 and would like more. I know somewhere I read it though and according to Google he said it on YouTube and Sun reported it.
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Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged
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on: November 28, 2019, 12:45:29 PM
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Times projecting 68 Tory majority
Tories 359 Labour 211 Lib Dem 13 SNP 43
The margin of error they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context. Obviously even 328 get Boris back in number 10 .....but I wonder how many does he realistically needs as a minimum to complete a full term of 5 years without the worries of being out voted in the commons? Some Tory MP's will leave this world, some might change parties, some might be a rebel on certain votes.....335? Still think it will be tight. Boris said to be looking for a majority of 9
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Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged
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on: November 27, 2019, 11:23:58 PM
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Times MRP poll looks pretty grim overall.
Given how few seats it predicts for the Lib Dems, Aaron will be gutted to see it forecasts Sheffield Hallam as a Lib Dem gain.
The 2017 version was a pretty good predictor of the outcome. Hoping that this one won't prove to be the case.
The Tories probably won't like the forecast at this stage, as it may prompt some changes in voter behaviour now that the outcome looks so stark.
I’m not bothered about Sheffield Hallam which way it goes. I just wouldn’t be taking the 1/3 on it happenning following the LD drop. As I’ve seen all over Twitter, it’s scary if you’re remain, but the poll surely can’t factor in so many other factors. Voter reg, tactical voting, Brexit Party, etc
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