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Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Breeders Cup Thread
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on: November 06, 2021, 09:25:29 PM
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Thanks, chaps
The winner is the hard part as you could probably tell I wasn't that keen on anything tonight bar Silver State who upon watching the replay almost looked to have gone wrong very early on (normally a fluid mover very scratchy)
Still early
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Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Breeders Cup Thread
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on: November 06, 2021, 03:36:04 PM
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7.05 Filly and Mare Sprint
No view here now hopefully some have the 3 places ante-post.
7.40 Turf Sprint
Golden Pal was 6/4 for this 2 weeks ago and now might hit 4/1 seen a few people reference the York run that is irrelevant here really the current price is at the worst fair. Lieutenant Dan looks solid and should have the ideal position here 2 or 3 back. Kimari has been away for ages but that is a plus for Wes Ward not a worry, at a bigger price Charmaines Mia might go well has been changed to a miler by connections after being a very good sprinter she doesn't really stay but isn't miles behind these back to her correct trip. Not a strong view here don't think it is a good betting race really even with 4 places plenty of depth.
8.19 Dirt Mile
Now, this is a better betting shape. Life Is Good has never not had the lead in a race, on paper gets challenged here the Japanese outsider Jasper Prince led the 6-furlong race here last year I can't see what other way they can race that one even though it has no chance of staying it can still influence the race. The obvious play either each way if the eight stand or win only is SILVER STATE 4/1 + solid horse races handy enough but doesn't need the lead however the race is run should be finishing well.
8.59 Filly and Mare Turf
This is a good race but a very hard one to read. The euros are definitely a class above Love is fresh and Audarya and Rougir should finish well-matched on the linked form. The big issue is there is zero pace bar one horse is GOING TO VEGAS a local horse still improving slightly stays well, in a lower grade race you might think someone will change tactics and go for the lead but that seems unlikely here. On form the current 20/1 is if anything a bit tight but 25s+ later will be a win-only bet for me.
9.38 Breeders' Cup Sprint
No view at all here the favourite looks about the right price and is solid but there are plenty of talented runners at their best all the way down, good race.
10.20 Breeders' Cup Mile
Have no doubt Space Blues has the least questions to answer in here he does however have to prove the mile is ok which I am sure it will be he might be a tad far back if held up to get the trip. Bit annoyed with myself I didn't chance Master of The Seas a few days at bigger prices as on his early-season form he could win not really an each-way play though.
With the 5 places with plenty, SMOOTHLIKESTRAIT is fine at 12/1+ very consistent always runs the same figures good draw a little soft in a finish at times and might lack the class to win each way for me.
11.00 Distaff
Lots of pace in here lots of in-form runners a few still improving the Hills 4 places probably makes it a betting race if you can with them Royal Flag would be my token pick but I would just go whichever they were most competitive on.
11.40 Breeders' Cup Turf
Corking race and Tarnawa rightful fav defending here crown. WALTON STREET for me at 9/1+ whose Dubai form looks a lot better than it did with the Arc Winner in behind he then bolted up in a grade 1 at Woodbine albeit a weak one looks a bit underestimated here.
00.40 Breeders' Cup Classic
The traditional hour gap and being honest we will be asleep by now (hopefully). A great race in prospect though so enjoy it if you are awake.
Couple of no interest races there but the rest of the card is difficult if you do get it right tonight fancy you get paid well, good luck all.
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Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Breeders Cup Thread
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on: November 06, 2021, 12:17:27 PM
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Np Alan crossbar day here but pretty happy with how they nearly all went.
The day was probably summed up by a tweet congratulating Bob Baffert from a course where he is banned from having runners for 2 years. Watching back Corniche ran you wouldn't bet odds on there wasn't some help the fractions she went..... The odious Matt Chapman continues to put up Baffert as some kind of god figure weird at best.
The aftermath of the last continues lots of slips from the states with pick 4's and 6's where they had winning tickets onto the "winner" and actually ended up on Dakota Gold who not only did they not select was struck into pre-race and almost certainly lame before and during the race, a real mess and although we have had all bad beats in this game that would be hard to top.
The excellent Andy Serling summed it up well just now with this tweet.
Andy Serling @andyserling With the benefit of a little sleep and a little hindsight, here's the bottom line as I see it....there are two stakeholders in this game, bettors, and owners, and we have to do the best possible job of protecting both, and never one at the expense of another.
Thought the track was racing fair hard to be sure about any dirt bias as the fancied winners from the front were not pressured early at all, the turf looked very fair with only the very dreamest of runs allowing deep closers as expected (see jockey cam tweet) The turf horses that got relatively easy leads were not particularly fancied so being handy is still preferred for me.
Will post thoughts for tonight in a few hours.
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