Quote from: The Camel on February 18, 2013, 09:57:50 PM
Prediction:
Welbeck, Young and Cleverley will have been sold by Man United before the start of 2014-15 season.
Simply not good enough to play for United.
RVP and Carrick are papering over an awful lot this season.


Bold prediction... i'd be highly surprised if any of them will be sold in the next 2-3 years! It goes against United's ethos of building around a base of young-mid 20's English players. Young has had injuries this season but when he plays regularly is productive - he scored 8 goals last season from the wing. I agree he's never going to be top level but would view him as a good-very good Premier League player. He can play on either wing/behind the striker and is ideal for squad rotation. Cleverley and Welbeck are already decent players with high potential. Again, they're not going to reach the level of a Scholes/Rooney but are ideal for squad rotation, won't kick up a fuss if they're benched for a few games, and can play in various positions. Part of the reason for United's consistency this year is that they have a lot of players of this type in the good-very good range who are rotated, keeping the squad fresh, who don't mind playing 25-30 games per season... maintaining squad harmony.

weird shove... but given you've under-repped your hand with the check I'd call, and then wonder why i checked the flop when he turns over pocket 6's

Call. If he has 10-8 or 4-4 (as unlikely as each would be) then good luck to him, just play the maths in this spot. It's most likely he has a 10 himself and you're splitting, but to put him on specifically 10-8 or pocket in a low buy in tournament is too nitty. There are players who will make this shove with a back-doored flush, 4, overpair, etc, certainly more hands that you beat than the 2 that have you beat.

....probably a fold

Good luck pal, well jealous! Every credit for going out there alone too, enjoy it.

Hi John, I've read your diary and find it really engaging.... you wear your heart on your sleeve and are not afraid to leave yourself open to criticism with your honest posts, which is refreshing! However, I strongly suggest you listen to Pleno and consider the amount of profit you'd actually need to make to justify leaving your current job. If you're earning even £30k+/annum can you confidently say you can earn this in profit, year on year, particularly with the added dynamic you'd be reliant on your poker winnings to pay the bills? Personally I'd need to have minimum £100k behind me to truly feel comfortable in giving up the day job! Keep it as a hobby, whether you want to consider yourself a part-time pro or whatever.... you'll play better knowing you have a solid income behind you.

[Please consider villians whole range when you make this statement.]

Lol kinboshi....

I think Suuprim summed it up well in that there's merits in playing it both ways... to say you should 'always' call the turn here and dismiss a realistic range including one pair , 2 pair, sets, weaker flush etc that our villain will continue with is incorrect.

And this is patronising to say the least!

Please consider villians whole range when you make this statement.If he had 0 bluffs in his range then go nuts, start piling more money
But its now 2013, lets keep our range as weak as possible and his range as wide as possible.
instead of hoping he "spazzes" with the bare Ah or something equally stupid that others have mentioned in this thread

Hi Bobalike, I just think that given our stack/bet sizing from the solid pro we should avoid risking our tourney here .... he may be prepared to call off with 88+s as your shove looks an obvious squeeze play, and a lot of the time we will be flipping against underpairs, but do we really want/need this with 100bb's? It's too high variance for me at such an early stage in the tourney. I don't think the re-entry option should really affect our decision either, it's unlikely to have affected the OR's thought process with his initial raise! I'd generally play it the same as a freezeout, and if you bust out it's a bonus......

Raise....calling looks just as strong on that board and if he's bluff raising the turn he's likely to either fold to a bet / check behind on the river. If he has he's unlikely to fold to a small-ish raise, I'd make it around $20 given him the chance to hang himself with the shove.

Regardless off the result in this case, I can't see why we'd ever wish to gamble shove/raise with AK in this spot, given minimal invested and a 100BB's behind us. AK is the scourge of many players early in tourneys as it's so often overplayed. The massive raise size by a 'solid pro' seems more suspicious, an attempt to get paid big by calling stations. I'd also be highly concerned by the smooth call of £4k behind. Protect your 100BBs and pick better spots.

Stapes is quality.... I get he could be annoying to some as there's no doubt he overcooks it sometimes(!), but for the most part he makes it much more fun to watch. His timing's good too, switching well from joking around to decent poker analysis. Plays really well off James Hartigan too, a good balance.

He's reraised you pre, with a stack of $511 to your $1849, so we have to assume strong a strong range. Hands he 'might' fold (JJ,QQ) but I reckon he's turning up with AA/AK/AQ more often here, particularly given the flat to your raise on the flop. So I think most of the time you're bluffing into his range of hands on the turn. A turn shove is often going to be interpreted as an attempt to rep the Ace, or semi-bluffing Q-J type hands. If you are continuing I think a bet of $175-180 achieves the same as the all in, as to him you'll look pot committed anyway?

quality TV tonight : - Champions League footy
                            - cash game poker at 10pm on Sky
                            - Monte Carlo Grand Final EPT highlights at 12.30am (channel 4).

Mental note to self - get out more

Looks like an AK 'I don't know how to play this hand if I miss the flop/it's burned me loads' shove to me

Well done Julian... watched the livestream, he played well throughout the FT