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661  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Ian Gascoigne V German Rick - 1-3 Vic on: January 27, 2013, 01:05:36 PM
Thanks for the feedback, excluding the 'donk for sho', lol.... in terms of how the hand was actually played I would generally favour a lead out on the flop with a view to going all-in over a raise....it takes any of the above marginal calculations out of it, adds fold equity and removes any bluffs from our opponent compared to having to call it off ourselves.
662  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Manchester United FC on: January 26, 2013, 07:59:20 PM
I'm a United fan but imo the deal Palace have got for Zaha is brilliant business, £10m upfront for potential with £5 extra in add-ons.... he's scored 14 goals in 78 games in the last 2 seasons which given he's described as a winger/striker seems pretty low productivity wise? He may improve etc but it's a hefty upfront fee. As a comparion, the lad Countinho who Liverpool have just signed is costing £8.5m, bought from Inter with more proven pedigree (scored 5 in 16 from midfield for Espanyol in La Liga, a team who were battling relegation)
663  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Ian Gascoigne V German Rick - 1-3 Vic on: January 26, 2013, 07:42:54 PM
I reckon this is precisely the type of awkward spot that separates the long-term consistent winners from the rest (placing myself firmly with 'the rest')

Against an unknown player it's a difficult lay down given the pot odds/potential outs -  we've invested £120 already, so £500 more to win a total £1240 pot means we should call if we think we have 40%+ odds to win. We have 13 pure outs (9 diamonds + 4 10's) / approx 52% chance of winning if we assume our opponent doesn't have a set or a diamond(s).
 
However, assessing strong likely opponent holdings & and our chances of winning, we are:

- 33% against any set 9-9/K-K/4-4
- 43% against K-9
- 40% against K-4
- 32% against a random xd
- 28%, worst possible shape, against -10d   

This to me is such a marginal spot - it's a close fold if we believe we're up against a player who is rarely/never bluffing. Our best 'strong' opponent hand is K-9, which is less likely against our tight opponent. However, it gets more complicated if we add in a bluff % (maybe 10-15% in this spot?) for our opponent, particularly given we haven't a made hand as yet!

In conclusion, if I'm in this spot against a player I believe capable of bluffing here I make a sigh call. An opponent who never bluffs = fold. This is a good illustration of why to take a few minutes to think over our opponent's possible holdings in such a spot, as I'd imagine most people call off here quickly....
664  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: The True Rastafish Story - No Frills on: January 25, 2013, 04:10:15 PM
Hi Rastafish, I just wanted to say I've found this diary really interesting and unique from most normal poker journals. I played on your table a DTD deepstack at the end of last year and can vouch for the fact you bring a lot of personality to the table. I hope your good run continues, and don't change how you are!
665  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: UKIPT Edinburgh on: January 20, 2013, 10:59:33 PM
Hi, just for future tourney reference, if you had entered UKIPT Edinburgh paying at the DTD cashdesk instead of via Pokerstars, how would you be paid if you cashed (i.e. given it's held in a hotel, not a casino)?
666  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD New Year Special £150,000 GTD Deepstack: Day 1a on: January 05, 2013, 10:04:39 AM
Thanks tikay, kind words. Ive have a couple of decent cashes in the dtd deepstacks recently, just falling short of final tables, so if i get to day 2 thats the target! sounds like you had a decent run yesterday too... Im just on a train coming from Manchester now (didnt make a note of the type unfortunately...lol), looking forward to a good day whatever happens!                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
667  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD New Year Special £150,000 GTD Deepstack: Day 1a on: January 05, 2013, 09:12:37 AM
Hi tikay, will you be re-entering today? Ill be playing myself, i watch a lot of skypoker so would be great to see you there!
668  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD December Double Deepstack Weekend: Day 1B on: December 01, 2012, 01:20:32 PM
 On the way down from Manchester for the 500 deepstack, prob gonna miss a level or two but I'm sure will still have a playable stack! Good luck all
669  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD December Double Deepstack Weekend: Day 1a on: November 30, 2012, 05:30:35 PM
Thanks, and good evening too. Great event this, so much play in it.
670  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD December Double Deepstack Weekend: Day 1a on: November 30, 2012, 05:20:22 PM
Looking forward to tomorrow's 1day B, although slightly concerned to see one Mr Julian Thew on today's list! Quite a record that lad....
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