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2536  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: May 08, 2013, 01:22:25 PM

Thanks, if only you had arrived a little earlier!

 Almost. Is your real name Richard Blacklock? Smiley

Well that was a nice Swansea result for Fred last night.  My hotel's internet died leaving me unable to reply on here or watch the game. And no Tikay that sounds like a bit or a random guess?

After the team news of Man City resting 8 players I came on to suggest opposing Wigan in the FA cup final. City are now 1.36 to win in 90mins. However they've won the last 6 home games and last 3 away all to nil whilst Wigan have had less rest and have the relegation fight on their mind.

Suggested bet City to win to nil @2.2 or better.
2537  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: May 07, 2013, 08:02:48 PM
Hi guys a late word on the Wigan match. At home under Martinez have won 5, drawn 5, lost 0 over the April / May period.  Given Wigan's motivation and Swansea's lack of form the draw @ 3-1 looks much more appealing than a Swansea win @ 4-1.
2538  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Chess thread on: April 01, 2013, 07:53:40 AM
Hi Camel, yes Kramnik was free to get up and look at the other games between moves.

Kramnik had an advantage that he pushed and pushed but could not convert. It'd be too risky to settle for a draw whilst Carlsen had a small advantage in the mid to endgame, which is his speciality.

Rest assured both Svidler and Ivanchuk understand the responsibility of the role they have to play. For example during the post match commentary when asked who would win Svidler quickly declined to answer due to a conflict of interest. However it would not be a surprise to 2 quick draws in the other games where there is little to play for.

Tonight should be a cracker especially with the tough but unpredictable Ivanchuk who's lost on time on 5 occasions yet has beaten our boy Carlsen.
2539  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 30, 2013, 02:17:17 AM
Nice call with Millwall Tighty

I never even saw that.

Gvyibynbo iutuvonukbtcyibhubuibk

Yes Tighty it doesn't matter if we got lucky with a 3rd min Leicester red card you or some-else should of spoken up earlier  Wink
2540  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 29, 2013, 12:30:27 PM


Great stuff, thank you.

By the way, not sure we have welcomed you to Fred, I've seen you here recently, hope you hang with us for a while.

Thanks for the welcome Tikay. One suggestion for tonight is Betvic's 5.75 on Millwall away to a Leicester side that have lost 3 out of their last 5 home games.
2541  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 28, 2013, 06:34:46 PM
We can breathe a little easier now as Svidler played accurately under time pressure to convert vs Aronian.

The standings after round 11 are:
Carlsen 7.5 
Kramnik 7   
Aronian 6.5

A couple of things in our favour are that Aronian plays Kramnik on Friday and the new second place man Kramnik currently has one less win under his belt than Carlsen. 
2542  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 28, 2013, 03:40:51 PM
The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

We can but try and anything matched is of benefit if the chessbase analysis price of 1.33 is accurate. Secondly there is a daily market at Marathonbet you could use to back either of the other 2 candidates.
2543  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 28, 2013, 01:14:27 PM
Yes Tal that was the shirt and it looked even better close up.

If this finishes a dead heat expect Aronian to have the highest number of wins. I can't see him losing one of his remaining 4 games. Even when he makes a mistake by overestimating his position thus coming off with the worst of it he shows an uncanny ability to get a draw in a spot many would lose.

During the writing of this post I've done many u-turns on the price. My general conclusion is Marathonbet's price of 1.19 is at best accurate or at worst a good bit too short. It really would require a lot of analysis too come to a more accurate conclusion and by then the next round will be underway Wink

Suggestion: if possible green up by laying at 1.2
2544  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 28, 2013, 09:19:59 AM
Latest report on the action in London:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1744576#msg1744576


One of my favourite pics, this:



Carlsen pops over to see how Aronian is getting on against Ivanchuk.


Our man has the chance to do the double over a second player on Thursday when he takes on Alexander Grischuk with the Black pieces.

I would expect at least one of Kramnik and Aronian to win tomorrow, with Kramnik white against a tiring Radjabov and Aronian facing a relatively indifferent Svidler.

4 games remain. Could be going down to the wire, but I think we're having fun watching it play out

Grand photo that.

Does it bother a player who is in the zone when someone (as in photo) wanders across & watches like that?

I do think Carlsen could use a "plus day" where he nicks a win & the other two draw, it is all rather close, one mistake & we are toast. Guess a dead-heat remains a possibility.

Betfair go 1.18 Carlsen, 6 Aronian, 20 Kramnik, 200 bar. 

Tal any chance you can find a picture of Aronian's yellow shirt? Even by his own high standards Lev was looking pretty dapper yesterday.

Regarding the tie break situation I got a twitchy bum upon finding out that the first rule of the tie-break is the player who has won the most games wins and that would be Aronian. 
2545  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Chess thread on: March 14, 2013, 12:16:03 PM
Fyi there's a drift on Magnus to 1.69 @Marathon
2546  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 12, 2013, 03:35:46 AM
Betfair go commission free across all 7 Cheltenham Festival races today Tuesday after the weekend debacle of crashing during the football.
2547  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Chess thread on: March 11, 2013, 09:30:59 PM
Hey Tal normally a friend and I come down from Scotland for the London Chess Classic but on this occasion I'll miss out due to being abroad. On the other hand less poker will be played due to an online candidates sweat.

Ladbrokes have also priced it up. Magnus is 8/15 and at first glance the market has a high over/under.
2548  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Chess thread on: March 11, 2013, 01:41:11 PM
Out of interest how many Blondes out there are considering going along to the watch the candidates?
2549  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Chess thread on: March 08, 2013, 12:05:04 AM
It's hard to disagree with you so far Tal and 5/6 would look great for a Kramnik match bet vs Aronian. Personally I'll be leaving the winner market alone after taking up a position on Magnus @1.8.

About Radjabov he might be value but would realistically only come into consideration if a field without Carlsen was offered.
2550  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Chess thread on: March 07, 2013, 10:53:00 PM
There's been a bit of gambling chatter on The Candidates over at 2+2 http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/140/chess-other-board-games/2013-world-championship-candidates-tournament-1307431/#post37504343

A couple of guys have ran simulations and notably Radjabov came up as a value outsider.
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