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1  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 03, 2020, 08:33:45 PM
This is true in Spain, Italy, and France too. They like to jack boot around a bit more than we tend to in terms of enforcing petty stuff  but plenty of non essential businesses open and working under distancing guidelines. I speak to people every day in these countries and USA and India. The only one with a lock down like you describe is india

Mate of mine is stuck out in Spain at the moment and can't get back until the ferries start running and they're on lockdown over there.

Most of it shut and he's stuck in the gaff they're staying at. I know that because I'm getting about 900 memes/videos a day on messenger!

I'm probably a bit narrow in perspective working in a business to business environment which happens to be functioning.

Bummer for your mate
2  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 03, 2020, 08:18:34 PM
Sure and certain, the new strong and stable
3  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 03, 2020, 08:17:30 PM

This is highly concerning, looking forwards:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21

Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.

Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?

It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.

Tbf. History shows that we have eradicated and/or contained many other killer diseases. We're more advanced than we ever were. I'd be 100% sure that we're certain to return to how things were before this from a medical perspective. Mentally and economically might take a bit longer
4  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 03, 2020, 08:11:45 PM
...
On the end part, it very much started as a case of ‘should be doing it now’ (for a quite a long time and still to some extent now), rather than ‘should have done it sooner‘.

...


Like what?

I remember arguments about whether we should be in full lockdown - but that was on the way (it may have arrived sooner than the government anticipated in fact because less people than expected were voluntarily abiding by social distancing rules).
Also arguments about whether schools should be closed - but that was clearly and obviously on the way (I don't think anybody, at least in education were surprised at the timing of that announcement)
They kind of bypassed the idea of banning large assemblies as we went to full lockdown - but that was in line with the Imperial research which suggested that it was so insignificant without the other measures that it wasn't even worth graphing.
There's an ongoing disagreement about masks - and, even more than large assemblies, you might get opposing experts who don't agree with the governments advice, but you can see where the governement expert advice is.

There are some other measures that other countries have done, but they're primarily about enforcement rather than actual containment measures.


What do you think the measures they should be doing now are?

There is scope for a much more comprehensive lockdown, our lockdown is still significantly less than the countries that we accelerating past on the fatality growth rate charts. I accept this is really tough though, the problem we saw in Italy/France/Spain with a partial lockdown is holding your nerve when the fatality numbers get huge but you still don’t know how effective your existing lockdown has been. In the U.K. things like Football Associations/rugby authorities cancelling all fixtures was against the government advice. There was a wide consensus that Cheltenham would and should be cancelled. They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.

At some stage it might be interesting to re-read this thread, which started on February 22nd to see the range of views. There was definitely a time where the discussion was about why we were waiting until a later point in the curve, as though we were trying to emulate Italy, when it seemed clear that what we had was an opportunity to act sooner, relatively speaking.

We’ve also allowed basically all non-essential work to continue, both situations where employees are apparently being forced to and situations where employers/employees have just carried on, notably in construction. We’ve no meaningful control over incoming international flights, including those from the worst afflicted places in the world. You’ll have some insight on the school closures, most teachers I know say 25/30% of kids are still coming in and basically all teachers who aren’t subject to quarantining guidelines are in as well.
I
This is true in Spain, Italy, and France too. They like to jack boot around a bit more than we tend to in terms of enforcing petty stuff  but plenty of non essential businesses open and working under distancing guidelines. I speak to people every day in these countries and USA and India. The only one with a lock down like you describe is india
5  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 03, 2020, 05:13:52 PM
That isn't a mischievous enough way to portray it though.

My intent definitely isn’t mischief. Must be 30 years since I was accused of mischief 😊. I’m thinking more along these lines:

https://twitter.com/holliepoetry/status/1245839139054014465?s=21

and these:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s6_MfQ9FloE


"Tories cheering when they voted to block a pay rise for Nurses In 2017" is the name of the youtube video - not that they were voting to block a payrise for Nurses; which would be a weirdly specific amendment.

They were voting to block lifting the cap on public sector pay that was introduced as an austerity measure; that would have meant a wholesale pay rise for every single public sector worker.

Instead the government - in the same year as that vote - lifted the pay cap for individual parts of the public sector.


At the time, it was a de facto block on a pay rise for nurses in 2017. The decimation of the public sector since 2011 is hugely regrettable and is obviously felt quite keenly atm. Feel free to ignore me on this stuff though, as I said earlier, just having a bad day.

This will be the place for checking the issue that Jamie brought up (excess deaths):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tZdV6aiOh6ZJGwEvbs-lo4uPptezKM4tl7L0F9ye7XE/htmlview

Not meaning to just pick up on stuff but I'm not really understanding why the govt can't make political capital out of this crisis but everyone else can (you're post earlier about the NIGHTINGALE).

Not that I think the gen pop are as stupid as the left generally think. Most people would give credit to the Army, the project leadership, the individuals working at lower rates than normal to build it out ahead of any politician even though it was a good political decision to get ti done and they rightly celebrate the achievement.

In many ways you are a kind of microcosm of a twitter type world view which barely starts to reflect the way the country actually is. Hence still believing political and policy arguments were won despite a heavy defeat. One of us is disconnected from reality.

Watched a good piece the other day with a Swedish epidemiologist talking about how he didn't have any time for any criticism that starts 'should have done it sooner' for obvious reasons if one meditates on it for a second. He wasn't just talking about this crisis but more as a general life principle.
6  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 02, 2020, 08:56:06 PM
I think raising hopes on the antibody tests was also a big mistake.

Not here yet, having suggested could be distributed by amazon and boots within days.

They backtracked a bit today. Needs more time to check it works etc

When it does come, how practically do you tell a percentage of the population to crack on whilst expecting the majority to stay locked down?

Yep, the last point is really difficult i think. Almost to the point of no value or undoable. Would have obvious uses in terms of random sampling that might show what is happening in the general population.

Might also have some value (that you could persuade the majority of the population to agree with) in terms of getting certain key workers back working
7  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Guess the number 5: football edition on: April 02, 2020, 05:23:57 PM
Woohoo. Nice use of images to make this interesting to look through as well as read through. Great effort
8  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Guess the number - Sporting quiz #4- Ridiculously hard edition on: April 01, 2020, 06:00:23 PM
Haha, 50% other. Nice memorialising of the legend Lee Dixon in the commentary too - thanks for doing this, much appreciated
9  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 01, 2020, 05:49:10 PM
These Q&A sessions are becoming a complete waste of time.

Whilst this may be the case you can't deny the usefulness of the amazing slide shows surely?


That was the highlight for sure.

Otherwise, same as usual. Good questions, all swerved. Never in doubt with that line up.

I'd rather there weren't questions if they are not or cannot answer them directly anyway , looks worse than having no questions
10  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Guess the number - Sporting quiz #4- Ridiculously hard edition on: April 01, 2020, 05:47:33 PM
Out of interest, what was the Q4 attendance answer ?
11  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Guess the number - Sporting quiz #4- Ridiculously hard edition on: April 01, 2020, 05:39:30 PM
Another solid round for Karabiner who wins his second stage (sorry again). Karmadope, who has been top five since round one, streaks ahead and is the only person under 1,000 points. Even with Ironsides flawed strategy I think we now know who is going to bring up the rear.

Name   Overall
Karmad   915
berger   1227
Tal......   1238
Doobs.   1383
Juperj   1594
Tighty.   2005
Bunnyd   2063
Robbieb   2440
Karabin   2789
Nirvana   3128
Dacorb   3926
Arbboy   4163
Celtic..   5851
Ironside   6257
Scotty   300237


For full closure i am mostly scottish breeding wise so the jocks are currently filling the bottom 4!  Irn Bru question needed

Given results in these so far, it's time for me to confess I'm 50% Scottish and so genetics counting heavily against me
12  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Guess the number - Sporting quiz #4- Ridiculously hard edition on: April 01, 2020, 04:23:16 PM
As someone pointed out at an early stage, Tal would walk this one and he did. One of only two correct answers for the entire quiz. I guess this is one where you either know it or don't. Early leader Karabiner obviously didn't.

2. Magnus Carsen holds the highest ever FIDE rating. What is it?

Answer: 2882

Name   Guess   Points
Tal   2882   0
Doobs   2900   18
bergeroo   2900   18
Tighty   2923   41
Juperjiper   3123   241
Karmadope   2500   382
Robbiebox   3445   563
Ironside   2000   882
Bunnydas888   1989   893
Scotty   1000   1882
Arbboy   999   1883
Nirvana   850   2032
Celtic   341   2541
Karabiner    302   2580
Dacorb   95   2787

And that puts Tal at the top of the heap after round two.

Name   Overall
Tal   243
bergeroo   289
Doobs   351
Tighty   401
Karmadope   465
Juperjiper   637
Robbiebox   898
Bunnydas888   1198
Arbboy   2181
Ironside   2199
Scotty   2265
Nirvana   2285
Karabiner    2651
Celtic   2803
Dacorb   3100



Impressive no of people between 2500 and 3000.
13  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 01, 2020, 12:39:00 PM
Be interesting to see if or how us and many of the countries we buy goods from can ever properly discuss this

https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/1245255823133196288?s=09
14  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: March 31, 2020, 07:54:14 PM
You should worry, Glenn. That's exactly what I came out of it thinking Cheesy

That sauce must be good, to cause that much friction, lol.

Do they get on?
[/quote
I think it was like looking in on an inside family joke. To me it looked like deep love and affection wrapped up in a New Yorker kind of insouciance (always wanted to use that word)
15  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: March 31, 2020, 07:45:26 PM
You gotta see this one.

Chris Cuomo is one of CNN's top anchors, presenting the nightly show Cuomo Prime Time, currently from his home.

Yesterday he interviewed his brother, who is in his third term as Governor of New York State.

Their father was Mario Cuomo, who was also Governor three times.

Chris presses a few times and at 7:30, he asks the question the country is asking, ie will Andrew run for President, but it's at 12:00 that it really takes off.

And today Chris has tested positive for Covid-19.



Watched a 3-4 min clip from this earlier centred around the piece about running for president, great fun from 12 mins on as you mentioned
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