Late report on the PLO £500
Ended up taking two bullets in this event - pre-discussed with stackers before second bullet taken.
First bullet - got nowhere really. On a table with Kevin Allen, Ben Mayhew and the guy who ended up as overnight chip leader, who was a crazy high-roller roulette Norwegian bloke. Long story short - this guy couldn't miss - and seemed to tear the table, and then the rest of the tables apart. I lost two large chunks to him with big hands into bigger hands, the second of which was 88xx vs TTxx on 2892T, then a third chunk into Ben Mayhew who called with a big draw (overpair and flush draw) against my two pair.
Second bullet was much more interesting/promising - Played mostly on a table with Ben Vinson and Willie Tan and steadily climbed from 50k up to 170k without any huge showdowns. Ended up busting in 16th with 11 paid in an interesting 3-way aipf pot:
Average stack ~280k (from memory) at 2k-4k
UTG+1 (300k+) - early twenties, has just sat down, but has played 3 of the first 5 hands, opens to 10k (standard open for this table) at 2k-4k. Moves chips confidently and seems to know what he is doing.
Cut-off (Me, 145k) -
- 3-bet pot to 36k
BB (60k) - young, fairly tight, has been grinding well for the last ~2 hours - shoves for 60k total
UTG+1 dwells then re-shoves pot to put me all in.
My read of the situation is that the guy in the UTG+1 seat is unlikely to have a big pair (purely because the combination of cards in the other two hands MUST be high) and that he is good enough to realise this and to know that a good drawing hand such as 5-6-7-8 double suited is in good shape here, especially with potentially lots of added value.
I would be very surprised to see anything other than KKxx (more likely as I have an ace) or AAxx in the short stack's hand. Clearly AAxx would be bad for me, but KKxx would not be horrific, especially as 85k of my 145k will be HU vs the drawing hand.
Anyway - I muse this out loud, to which the big stack seems to agree (strangely, as he kind of convinces me to call) and so I do!
Hands:
Short stack
- not good for me, obviously I would have preferred KKxx
Big stack
Board - T7xTx
I appreciate that come of the analysis is over-simplified, but am happy that the call is correct - in the end my eventual equity is ~27% for the main pot (186k) and 62% for the side pot (170k) - for an expected outcome of ~155k.
This would rise to 34% and 62% for ~161k if the short stack has kings rather than aces.
My question would be - given the stage of the tournament especially, is there a better way of playing this hand pre-flop than re-potting? If I flat the initial raise then perhaps the same action occurs behind me - maybe I should then fold for a loss of 10k? Is there any value in raising small?
Anyway, would be interested to see responses.
Next tournament - tomorrow at midday - 1c of main event. Lets do this!
Cheers,
Tom