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16066  Poker Forums / Online Tournament Staking / Re: GAURENTEED STAKING! Micro Millions on: March 20, 2012, 12:27:58 PM
It really is mental how many people go all in with no low draw and not the nut high.

I play quite a lot if plo8, and it is simply par for the course in these big festivals.  You go deep and find yourself all in pre flop vs KK rag rag no low draw, and the inevitable happens.  Having good tilt control is a prerequisite if you play them.

To be fair it happens in the regular tournies too!

But all this is the reason you play
16067  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: red or brown? on: March 17, 2012, 03:08:54 PM
I had the misfortune to order a bacon roll at McDonald's the other day.  Don't ask me why as they are already make the worst bacon rolls.  I got it home and discovered they had put barbeque sauce on it.... so wrong
16068  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Sky Poker Sat on: March 17, 2012, 11:13:26 AM
We are playing a £240 sat for the £1100 Vegas final.

5 seats are available and there are 9 left.  We are chip leader with just over 9K chips.  Blinds are 200/400.  The player two to my right has just doubled up and has slightly less than me, maybe a couple of hundred chips less.  Everyone else has 4 or 5k.  I think the other table has one on around 7 and the rest on 4k or so.  I have no idea how that is playing.

All 3 players to our left have made what look like pretty bad satelite calls to me.  All 3 seem to be in gambling mode.  The calls made were: The player on my left called a SB shove (me) with K9s when he had A7 off.  I had about 9k and he had 4k.  I lost.  The player 2 to my left called with K7 off for half his chips in the BB to a 10 BB button shove with QJs (me).  I assume he noted my K9s shove??  I won.  The other bad call was a min raise call for two thirds of his chips with KQ off (the sky 3 bet range is not the same as a stars 3 bet range!)  The player on my right has shoved every unopened SB for some time.  K7 off is the player with 9k chips.

We get AK off UTG.  Is this a straightforward shove given the calling tendencies and this is a sat?

16069  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Rob's PokerStars UKIPT £1M GTE Diary thread."28 Days Later" (crap film) on: March 17, 2012, 10:53:53 AM
Posted on the betfair forum.  Unfortunately nobody ever reads it anymore. 

You have tempted me into my first UKIPT, just need to get it won now.

Good luck with this.
16070  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: ONLY.... on: March 17, 2012, 10:42:53 AM
wpwp
16071  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Treble staking request on: March 16, 2012, 09:53:40 PM
Will take 10% of whatever you are doing.  Is it first two only now?



16072  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Treble staking request on: March 16, 2012, 02:49:09 PM
dont be daft never sell at less than face value

It would bring a refreshing dose of realism to the forum. 
16073  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Diaries on: March 15, 2012, 10:26:12 AM
I think it is a disgrace that this thread is stuck near the top putting off newbies.

PS  Took me forever to find that Concordia post only to find it wasn't very interesting.  Is the captain still guilty btw?
16074  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: UKIPT Stake on: March 14, 2012, 09:41:29 PM
will take 20%
16075  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: LAPC on: March 14, 2012, 03:01:53 PM
gl take it down.

39 left 19 paid ave 146k

16076  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: LAPC on: March 13, 2012, 03:04:17 PM
191 i think. 120~ left and quarterMILLball ftw
Wow. Bearded Belgians will be rubbing their hands in anticipation Smiley

Needs more love
16077  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: LAPC on: March 13, 2012, 09:47:25 AM
gogogo
16078  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: The Cheltenham 2012 Thread on: March 10, 2012, 11:16:37 PM
Currently on a mission to turn £20 into £2k.

Started off with a £20 win on dovers hill 8/1 earlier and ended up with £600 in my account.


I would like an account that paid me 29/1 on 8/1 shouts.  How bad do you have to be to be given such an acocunt?
16079  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Staking deals and markup. Discussion? on: March 10, 2012, 11:05:34 PM
Some of these numbers in the thread are wrong, including those in at least one of my posts.

I did some maths earlier and I think this is what stakeback means in a single tournament.

If the arrangement is 70/30 including stakeback in a tournament like the DTD £500er, the maths is as follows:

Here, roughly 10% of the field cash, if you cash you are pretty sure to get your entire stake back, so 10% of the prize fund is paying the stakeback.  Hence 90% of the prize fund is money in addition to stakeback.  

So in the long run expected return is (.1*100 + .9* 70) x expected cashes from horse = 73% of expected cashes from horse. This is equivalent to a mark up of around 37%.

Something I had never thought of before is that this changes in something like the sunday million where 15% of the field are paid.

15% of the field cash, if you cash you are pretty sure to get your entire stake back, so 15% of the prize fund is paying the stakeback.  Hence 85% of the prize fund is money in addition to stakeback.

So in the long run expected return is (.15*100 + .85* 70) x expected cashes from horse = 74.5% of expected cashes from horse. This is equivalent to a mark up of around 34%.

Where my maths falls over is what happens if you put up a long list of tournaments offering 70/30 after stakeback.  Here the stakeback is assumed to apply to the whole list.  A lot of the time the staker will get 100% of the prize money because the stakee will cash for less than the entire stake.  Without doing the maths I am guessing that the equivalent mark up here must be significantly less than the 34% above, possibly as low as 20% or so.

So when people said offering 70/30 after stakeback had the potential to mislead then I would have to agree with them, but probably not in the way they intended!

Please feel free to point out any errors in the above.

I think there is at least one more geek point on the above topic which I don't have time to do now.
 
Cheers

16080  Poker Forums / Online Tournament Staking / Re: Stars action monday - friday on: March 09, 2012, 11:25:20 PM
yep 7% cheers. just wanted to do the rest thing!
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