To add - the idea that basing any initial response on a model based on a different disease is a mistake kind of plays into the idea of thinking that experts aren't worth listening to.

Epidemiologists make extensive studies of  (for example) Ebola or Flu outbreaks to work out how best to handle the next Ebola or Flu outbreak, but they also study them to work out the best way to handle any new viruses that emerge.

Novel just means new - we've had plenty of novel viruses in the past. The more data we have on past epidemics the better we should be able to handle any future epidemic whether it's from an existing disease or a new one.

I do agree with this. My issue is with politicians misrepresenting science to suit their agenda. Our ‘science’ as described by our government has consistently been different to that of the countries who have handled the crisis well to this point. That (I think) is down to the influence of politicians, not the scientists. See facemasks for the latest example. I’ll find the preprint of the paper on masks but I’ve had enough for looking back through the thread for one day 😊.

Ohhhhh be quiet.....what are your medical credentials to have any valued opinion on this? Right now you are just a random person with an opinion on the Internet with no credibility......

It's OK. This is a poker forum, not The Lancet.

For Sure.....until people start quoting the lancet and talking like they have some authority on the subject ffs! 

To add - the idea that basing any initial response on a model based on a different disease is a mistake kind of plays into the idea of thinking that experts aren't worth listening to.

Epidemiologists make extensive studies of  (for example) Ebola or Flu outbreaks to work out how best to handle the next Ebola or Flu outbreak, but they also study them to work out the best way to handle any new viruses that emerge.

Novel just means new - we've had plenty of novel viruses in the past. The more data we have on past epidemics the better we should be able to handle any future epidemic whether it's from an existing disease or a new one.

I do agree with this. My issue is with politicians misrepresenting science to suit their agenda. Our ‘science’ as described by our government has consistently been different to that of the countries who have handled the crisis well to this point. That (I think) is down to the influence of politicians, not the scientists. See facemasks for the latest example. I’ll find the preprint of the paper on masks but I’ve had enough for looking back through the thread for one day 😊.

Ohhhhh be quiet.....what are your medical credentials to have any valued opinion on this? Right now you are just a random person with an opinion on the Internet with no credibility......

Anyway, Kuku it's not about judgement, we were talking about bias. There are so many known unknowns in this whole thing that our biases (and other aspects of our characters) inform the view we take on Government performance during this crisis.

So, we could both make a judgement that if we'd locked down sooner it is probable that fewer people would have died to date. Our judgement would be the same but our perspectives on whether locking down sooner could reasonably have been expected or would have been desirable would probably be different.

Trust me....if we locked down sooner it would just be a different whine about fking the economy or something else......either way there would be a whine about the govt making a mess of things you can be 100% sure of that.

...
Kush, Just out of interest and it’s a question asked in a friendly spirit. Do you consider that you have a bias? If so what do you think it is?

I think I’ve answered this question a ton of times. I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government. I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany.

In spite of this bias, probably in part due to a strong background in scientific fields, I am able to be quite objective when I need to be. Reread the thread if we want to get a feel for who was ahead of the curve at any time in terms of how this was likely to play out.

Kush - you know a bias is a prejudice right?

So if you're saying your bias is based on "I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government" you're saying that you don't think that's an objective opinion(?)

"I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany. "

Is closer - a more realistic description might be you're biased against anything you think doesn't lead to a more equitable society - primarily anything the Tories do          :p

I guess I was simplifying the language for the purpose of responding to PP. You’re quite right to correct me. I don’t believe there is any bias in my belief that the governance of this country has been getting progressively worse since around 2012. Same for my view that having a populist government, led a by a clown who believes in English exceptionalism, was unfortunate timing for this crisis.

I’m not the biggest fan of Boris but calling him “a clown” demonstrates your bias even though you don’t believe it’s a biased view.

You’ve bought the act, hook line and sinker. He plays up to that image and ensures he is underestimated by opponents.

My view is a bit more complicated than that, I haven’t bought his act at all. I usually call him ‘the clown show’, this was just the abbreviated version. Calling him a clown is just being a bit charitable, he should be and usually is, called a lot worse.

My feelings about Boris are objective, my choice of words sometimes leave room for improvement. An incompetent liar who believes in little Englander exceptionalism would be a more accurate and therefore better way to describe him. Let’s not make it about what I think of Boris though. As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.

Your judgment has been sound has it? Can you state what medical credentials you have that make you qualified to have ‘a sound judgement’ on this matter?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6

Interesting article on Germany.

No surprise......those rattling on with judgments need to wait a good 12 months with those judgements happen.....

Massive queues in fast foods places after NZ after lifted restrictions slightly, god I’d be in that queue..... 

This is good, addressing the ‘following the science’ nonsense:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/28/theres-no-such-thing-just-following-the-science-coronavirus-advice-political

You have always said you never read the guardian......

What do we think the excess 6,614 probably died of?

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1255081802340929536?s=21

Interesting briefing coming later today. Let’s try and make an objective assessment of whether they are trying to play down the number of people killed directly by Covid.

Stress caused by moaning on the Internet?

Gowns and masks approved by the cabinet office.
Been told we should start commercial discussions today.

One NHS deal fell through as they want 3M KN95 branded masks only at this stage. My agent in China assures me these are not available as the Chinese and US Government have locked up all the 3M factories capacity.

Not sure if either statement is 100% accurate but it would be annoying to think they are passing up comparable CE marked masks waiting for something they cannot get.

Doesn’t surprise me at all from my dealings with them over 25 years, NHS procurement is very bureaucratic and they will probably have certain minimum standards and processes they have to adhere to. To the untrained eye some things that seem comparable are not always comparable, we’ve had it with various drugs over the years, it’s worked for and against us.

Maybe your agents cut just isn’t big enough for the masks for him to be arsed?   

GG Homeland, you had a great run.

Without a rewatch, I think that was my favourite season.

Do you need to watch previous seasons to watch this one? Think I lost interest after about season 3 or 4.....

Good to see the great leader back at the helm 

Kim Jong-Un is alive then?

Very good 

Might have been if he got the right Kim   

Good to see the great leader back at the helm 

Fingers crossed for your Nan, Mark.

What he said.

Hoping for the best Mark.

Cheers Ralph. Makes missing the derby at Nottingham slightly more real life when your family is involved in this chaos.

Never used my one time, want to pass it on to your nan and cross everything for her.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254462206403588096?s=21

The all cause mortality international comparisons.

Seems that the U.K. excess non Covid deaths, that came along by coincidence (according to some), nearly all came along in the Covid hotspots.

Interesting data - I do like Burn Murdoch.
Who is saying it is coincidence?

It was a contentious topic ITT thread after the first relevant ONS update. Without a better explainer, the graphs in the Tuesday briefings make an absolute assumption that the other excess deaths aren’t Covid. I think it’s fair to say that just in general (including most people I talk to) people think U.K. Coronavirus deaths are “around 20,000” .

Just to be clear is it still Boris’/the Tories fault?

https://youtu.be/Qe_o5J-hJ6Q

Peterborough city centre on Friday.

 Got to be a wind up?

That was my first thought but plenty of masks (the idea of fendwellers wearing masks a month ago would have been roffley) and police cars on show. Also, the weather checks out and nobody seems to be going in or coming out of shops.

Couple of nice racks tbf

Way more guts than racks.....