Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

Glass half full again I see 

Reports are that Mexico is urging Trump to hurry up with the wall........

House party app isn’t too bad to catch up for a group chat, have got quizzes and games you can play together on there also.

The problem with quoting cases is also that even the countries with a lot of testing, like Germany, are still not capturing every case.

So if you have to extrapolate a little bit, or you have to extrapolate a lot, doesn't change that every figure given isn't the actual amount of cases in that country.

Even comparing the same country over time will have skewed results, Germany for example, had their testing skewed towards the younger population to start with and is only recently increasing the number in the older population being tested.

The number of confirmed cases per country is a figure to keep an eye on but it's only really for a very general trend and comparisons between countries seem to be largely meaningless.

The deaths by country are a bit more meaningful but for an international comparison I think you need a lot more than anyone (including Kush's link) have done so far. In particular the result over time compared to the size of the country.

For now that's also a general indicator rather than an exact measurement because it has to be obvious that a million deaths from covid19 in the US will mean a lot different to a million deaths in Lichtenstein (for example).

I’m unclear why the size country is a significant issue for growth rate of fatalities? I don’t think total deaths tells us much at this stage.

I should clarify that I mean in terms of assessing the success of a strategy in combatting the virus.

Because we don't know how many cases there are.

It is more likely that there are 10 million un recorded cases in the US than there are 10 million un recorded cases in Lichtenstein - obviously that feeds through to deaths.

Like with the other factors general trends can be found by looking at the figures available but there's absolutely no nuance to the data.

The obsession with daily figures probably doesn't help, it's interesting to get a daily update but comparing week on week is probably more helpful once countries are past the stage of being able to meaninfully track every case.

Obsession with daily numbers help if you have an agenda to criticise the Tories ar every opportunity 

Fuck the doom and gloom and blame, I always find the positives.......

https://twitter.com/BostonStNic/status/1245055857169178625

A lot of the usual whining trying to blame stuff on the Tories......no love for what will be the largest hospital in the world when it’s ready? NHS Nightingale 

For the tin foil hatters....

ok, I have never watched any of the Avengers films and during lockdown I intend to bash through a few of them with my lads.

I am a little confused with the Marvel Cineverse.... where should we start?

Any chance I can persuade you not to bother ? How old are the kids ? If they are under 36 its probably a wasted effort

For balance I think they are pretty decent if you like action films.

Spenser Confidential

Netflix film with Marky Mark standing up to a group of corrupt policeman. Good film and work a watch 7.5/10

It’s probably for 3-4 weeks but even less if idiots in the UK would follow the rules.  I’m so glad I left that place

Our restrictions aren’t as tight as China, they reckon we are talking more like 10-12 weeks before we turn the corner.

I got a round of applause for putting the bins out earlier, it’s not that hard is it?  

Not sure if you are replying to me or not . But WTF are you on about you plum

Sigh....not replying to or referring to you in anyway, ‘twas a joke mate, people here will will get it  

I got a round of applause for putting the bins out earlier, it’s not that hard is it? 

Potentially positive news from what I assume is classed as a reputable source:

https://youtu.be/6bTF0_GUsRg

Thanks to all for their contributions itt and stay safe everyone.

That’s it, off out on the piss tonight! 

Does anyone else have a holiday booked for within the next 3 months?

We are booked for Gran Canaria in May and the total for us was around £1500. It was booked through TUI and they haven't been great about the holiday (when we booked). They are apparently offering refunds or vouchers, but should they be willing to add more onto the voucher (if needed) for another holiday. The alternative holiday in November was like £175 more.

In other news hotels being pretty decent about bookings and Airport lounges we booked have been fully refunded.

Also going Gran Canaria but not until mid June (should have been going to Vegas   ), think it's a flip if mine goes ahead or not.

TUI have no obligation to top up your voucher, they are allowing free amendments for anyone booked to travel before June 30th but naturally you'll have to pay the difference in cost between original and new booking. £175 for peace of mind doesn't seem like too much to pay.

You could always wait it out and make a late decision on it, on the off chance Spain really improves in April.

Flip? I think your chances are at best 10% and that’s being generous.....I’ve pretty much written off holidays for this year, if something does open up at the back end of the year then so be it.

Just ordered a lump from a takeaway with as much precaution as possible getting the food in, do we think the risk is reasonable if we are avoiding touching the external packaging?

I have read in many outlets that the maximum time that the virus can survive on an object is 48 hours. Not helpful in your case, but maybe for people receiving items through the post. But this is a worry when shopping too, how many times has someone touched the item you're going to pick up?

It is different to say that they can pick up the virus from a hard object 48 hours later in a lab than to say they can pick it up from a takeaway bag.

In countries like Singapore and South Korea, where contract tracing is more prevalent they can account for most of the cases are from human to human transmission.   In Wuhan people were still eating and they stopped, or near stopped, the spread.   So I think it is safe to say very few people are getting COVID from objects.

I'd just practice good hygiene.  Wash your hands with soap before dishing out the food and get rid of the packaging, and wash them again before eating.  

My missus is insisting on wiping everything that comes through the door, but I suspect this is going too far, and probably isn't that great anyway.  If it makes her happy, I don't really care.  I think we'd be better not getting all the stuff she is having delivered, but ho hum.  The kids really don't need anymore educational toys to ignore, and they really don't need them in the next few weeks.

Actually we didn’t even touch the packaging, and the packaging didn’t even touch a surface in the house, we just emptied the food out and slung the boxes.