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1  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: stuart hall charged on: January 23, 2013, 10:14:01 PM
Testimony is evidence, yes. The phrase "beyond reasonable doubt" is no longer used - juries are told they must be "sure" of the defendant's guilt. I think the change was intended to slightly lessen the burden of proof required in the minds of jurors, so they didn't think, "well this could have happened and that could have happened, anything could have happened, so there's always a doubt". Using the word "sure" has its problems too though, as it does have slightly different meanings (referring to slightly different levels of certainty) in common usage.

Reasons for low conviction rates are several, quite complex, and probably not fully understood. But if anything, you could certainly argue that the low conviction rates achieved probably mean that those cases that the CPS does manage to get to court are generally all the more worthy of prosecution.

One major reason why so few cases end in a conviction is possibly the jury system and the behaviour of jurors. Since a jury is pretty much a random assortment of people, some are inevitably pretty thick and can't be relied on to pay attention, some come in with their own prejudiced views and can't be reasoned with by barristers or fellow jurors, and so on. Probably an increasing number are reluctant to convict without, for example, CCTV or DNA evidence, as the advance of technology changes people's perceptions and expectations of what "proof" should be. And the more serious the crime, you would think, the more "proof" the jury will require in order to convict. Conviction rates for sexual offences, especially historical ones, perhaps suffer both because they are serious offences that carry hefty sentences, upping the "proof" required in the minds of juries to make them willing to convict, and because they often lack this "proof" in the form of scientific evidence that they've seen on CSI.

On top of that, I'd guess that there's something of a psychological issue at play with juries whereby some of those who are capable of thought end up trying to think too hard (again, in serious cases especially). While half of them probably spend their Friday nights merrily torching the home of their local paediatrician, once they're made a juror they might tend to start thinking like someone who's supposed to think about stuff, and don't come to the same guilty verdict of which their everyday non-thinking mind would have been sure. A bit like people who obviously know a certain piece of general knowledge, but who become unsure about it when put on a TV quiz show playing for money.

So as a juror they might say, "Well it's just one person's word against another's - how can I be sure?" Whereas a week earlier they would probably have said: "Well, why on earth would the victim(s) put themselves through all this, and how can they spend hours giving evidence that sounds and feels like it's the truth, if not for the reason that it's true?"
2  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Help with FPP calcs on: January 17, 2013, 05:43:52 PM
To get 1. per fpp in cash I think you need to be supernova. otherwise you get a lower rate. If you buy tournament tickets then I think you get the equivalent of 1. whatever your VIP level, so would guess that's what it refers to. Not completely sure though, you'd have to check.
3  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: If you had to make $20k? on: January 13, 2013, 12:15:44 AM
People more qualified than me have already given you advice, but what I what say if I was to add anything...

Would echo what Dave says above about not setting monetary targets from poker. It only adds stress, with the desire every day/week/month to be on target all the time. It gives you extra reasons, as if you needed any, to think that things aren't going right and to wonder whether you're good enough to do it. Or alternatively, if things are going well in the short time, to raise your expectations and to extrapolate the hope of greater success down the line. Both of which will tend to negatively affect your game.

Also would say, don't think about rakeback as some sort of 'free money'. Of course, the rakeback deal you can get (or VPP status on Stars or whatever) will influence where you play. But rakeback isn't free money. It's a chunk of your profit that the site agrees to let you keep. If you don't beat the other players at the table, then rakeback is just a rebate on your losses. So the important thing is to find a game where you're better on average than the other players, so that you can beat them and make a profit after you've paid your tax (rake) to the site. Yes, play in the jurisdiction with the most lenient tax policy, if that's where you make most money. But make sure you think of rake, and rakeback, as just that - a tax and a tax rebate, and not of rakeback as some sort of generous handout.

Personally, I wouldn't advise someone in your situation to try and make your money from poker. At the moment, you think you don't have enough time. But at least you know what time you have, and can be completely off work in your free hours. If you make the switch to poker, how much time will you have to put in before you can reliably make £10/hour? How much time will you have to play before you know that you can reliably make £10/hour? How much time will you have to study so that you can still make £10/hour in 2014? In 2015? How much time away from the table/computer will you spend thinking about these things?

The hourly rate is completely arbitrary, but the point is that no-one knows the answers to these questions, and that these questions never really go away, because the games are always changing and evolving, and generally getting more and more difficult. So even if you gave up work and made your target amount for the next six months, you still wouldn't know if you'd be able to make that same amount in the following six months. The danger being that what is supposed to be three or four hours per day of playing poker actually ends up taking over more 'thought hours' than your current job does.

Of course, it's possible that you'd get better and better, at a rate faster than most people playing your games, so that you'd be likely to make more and more money in the future. But you'd need to ask yourself how confident you'd be about that happening, to decide whether you'd be happy to have all the question marks that come with poker hanging almost permanently over your head.

Hope that doesn't sound too much like doom-mongering, and good luck with what you decide to do!
4  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: St Petersburg travel - anyone know a lowish cost way to get there? on: December 20, 2012, 03:49:34 PM
Alternative would be a cheap flight to Tallinn or Riga or Helsinki and then overnight train or coach to st Pete. Not sure how much that would save really - the train isn't especially cheap, coach would probably save a few quid. But if you fancy passing through somewhere else on the way it might be an option.
5  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Tourist visa to Russia information! on: November 13, 2012, 01:34:25 AM
OK so chances of me getting one in time for a trip next weekend? Slim?

Thanks for the posts and links guys Smiley

If you go the official route, no chance, if you use an "agency", you can get it sorted within 24 hours, but you'll need to proffer several gratuities. For under £200, a visa can be sorted same day, but it means using somewhat dubious channels.

Where exactly in Russia are you hoping to go?

This all makes it sound much dodgier than it actually is! Just phone up an agency and see if they can do it in time and for what price. If you'd done it Monday you could probably have had it by the weekend with a standard service. I seem to remember getting one in a day once out of necessity, but had to get a train to Edinburgh and back to get it done.

If there's anything dodgy about it it's between the agency and the embassy and nothing to do with you. And how the embassy chooses to do business is really nobody's business but theirs. You won't have to leave bundles of roubles ina dead-drop...

6  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Tourist visa to Russia information! on: November 11, 2012, 04:58:00 PM
Just saw bulldozers's answer is basically the same thing, just a different agency
7  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Tourist visa to Russia information! on: November 11, 2012, 04:54:33 PM
Have had to get several, though not for about three years now. Doing it yourself was always possible in theory, but getting appointments at the Russian embassy was pretty much impossible unless you were organised weeks or months in advance. I think they claim to have improved that but can't say from personal experience if it's true. Visa regimes between Russia and UK vary on a tit-for-tat basis, depending on how much we like each other at the time.

I and everyone else who needed them regularly always used to use agencies to avoid the need for invitations and embassy appointments. I used travel-direct.com in Edinburgh a few times with no problems. Tourist visa is £115 from them, which I think is about £40 more than doing it yourself. Find it hard to imagine that it isn't still worth the extra.

No legal live poker in Russia any more unfortunately. Let me know if you find a good underground club please, for future reference...
8  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: DEAL OR NO DEAL on: February 10, 2012, 06:40:12 PM
FWIW - i rarely deal and have often been chastised (not a dtd) for not doing so

BUT, there are times when I want the option to be able to strike a deal, and that is why I didnt vote for no deals.

I strongly believe that if any ONE player wants to play it out, then thats what should occur. In theory, this should lead to most tourneys playing out (assuming a good spread of chip counts). However given this isnt the case, it sugests that many players want to even out the variance. Most players already know when they make a final who will and wont deal, is this is what gives people an edge in making the deal. I am strongly against chip count/icm only deal making for the reasons set out by Mr keys. Making a deal is just as skillful as playing the game, and often the most skillful deal makers are the better players. I dont like the "we need to protect the players" line at all. If someone is so frightened of the pay jumps that they are prepared to strike a terrible deal, then so be it.

Most of that, especially the italicised part.

I totally respect the "no-deals" camp, but it is out of touch with reality in the current circumstances, especially the way the prize pool is structured.

It is - in my experience - also always been true that if there is a SINGLE dissenter at the Final, opposed to doing a deal, then no deal is done.

And yet 80% of FT's end in business.

We must remember, too, that if Deals remain permitted, they can STILL be vetoed by a single player, so the "no Deals" camp have a safety parachute, in that not one of them will ever have to do a Deal, because Deals have to be agreed by every player.

Yes, this seems key to me. A "no deals" rule only ever comes into effect when everyone left wants to do a deal (since as you say, if there's always someone who wants to reject a deal, then no deal gets done anyway).

In DTD's position, I don't think I'd be comfortable introducing a rule that is necessarily contrary to what all the players wanted. That really doesn't seem to make any sense.

Obviously there are problems with the deal-making process, so better to address those problems. The red card/black card thing seems like it's helpful, and restrictions on the deals that can be done could be useful too. Maybe just having one alternative, flatter, payout structure that the remaining players can vote for, in place of the original. Reduces variance (and wasted time and arguments) if that's what the players want, and ensures the tournament is played to a finish, if that's what DTD wants.


9  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Venetian Deepstack Festival Package (Oct 28th-Nov 18th)* Updated* on: November 19, 2011, 04:57:43 PM
No objections here

Edit: lucky 1000th post.
10  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: November Nine this weekend on: November 05, 2011, 10:50:25 PM
Going in to corals at 2pm. Let you know.
I think you might fined that all books closed @ 8.00pm Friday in the uk.

I struggled because I only had an hour to sort it.  I did put a couple bets with Bodog this afternoon.  Got Collins to win @ 13/2 & Anton to win @ 10-1.  When I first checked the site, it had Anton @ 12-1, so I reg'd an account, deposited and by that time he'd gone down to 10's. Gutted.
Going in to corals at 2pm. Let you know.
I think you might fined that all books closed @ 8.00pm Friday in the uk.

I struggled because I only had an hour to sort it.  I did put a couple bets with Bodog this afternoon.  Got Collins to win @ 13/2 & Anton to win @ 10-1.  When I first checked the site, it had Anton @ 12-1, so I reg'd an account, deposited and by that time he'd gone down to 10's. Gutted.

Could you not just have gone back to sleep and found out who won? Would make this much easier.
11  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Venetian Deepstack Festival Package (Oct 28th-Nov 18th)* Updated* on: November 02, 2011, 04:34:10 AM
No objections from me, Dom, if you wanna play the Caesars $1k on the Stake, in fact, I very much think you should.

+1

Yep fine with me
12  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: The Best In The Business on: October 31, 2011, 04:23:22 PM
I think the article's argument is basically wrong and its justification is pretty half-arsed. Yes, we say that the buyer should beware, but we don't say that the buyer should be ignorant.

In general, an efficient market is a good thing. Efficiency is pretty hard to achieve though in the market for stakes in poker players, since it's so hard to even estimate anyone's true ROI, and since liquidity is so low. Opinions of well-informed people are therefore relatively even more valuable than in any other financial or commodity market, where such opinions are constantly sought.

Looking at the author's example - no, we shouldn't worry about someone buying a brand of crisps rather than supermarket's own, because the prices of those commodities have been set in a highly liquid market that has effectively already taken into account thousands of opinions and judgments to arrive at a "correct" price.

And in any case, if we did disagree with someone's choice of crisps - would the author actually argue that there's some reason we shouldn't express that opinion? I very much doubt it.

I also don't much like the implication that because the seller has worked hard to build up his name on TV etc, he should be rewarded for that effort by being able to sell at a higher price. This is a bit like suggesting that because a con man is clever and puts a lot of effort into his scams then he deserves what he gains.

I don't think the article sets out to say this, but it is the implication. And in any case, the intention - to say that he has a 'brand' that others don't have and that is worth something - is also flawed. There can be some intrinsic value in a brand, in that, for example, people will actually enjoy the branded crisps more than the unbranded ones. The staking thing is different though - you don't get to consume or use or own anything. It's just an investment.

So actually a good comparison would be with an investment fund. If investment fund A has good recent results and charges fees of 1% and fund B has poor results and charges 50%, is the author really saying that people who know about investment funds shouldn't point this out on internet forums, because fund B has advertised a lot on TV? I don't think so.
13  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Venetian Deepstack Festival Package (Oct 28th-Nov 18th)* Updated* on: October 31, 2011, 01:58:46 PM
Brilliant stuff Dom, very well done!
14  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Potential Venetian Deepstack Festival Package (Oct 28th-Nov 18th)* Updated* on: October 23, 2011, 11:31:27 PM
Done
15  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Potential Venetian Deepstack Festival Package (Oct 28th-Nov 18th)* Updated* on: October 23, 2011, 11:04:09 PM
I have another 1% available if anyone wants it.

Will be $140/£89.46 (using locked exchange rate of 1.565 set when package was finalised on monday)

Bank or stars are available payment methods, though bank is preferred.





Bump.

1% still available.


 Yeah go on, I'll have it if you're still selling. Can send by bank if you just confirm on here.
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