751
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: do you call
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on: September 26, 2006, 05:26:41 PM
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Pretty sure he has flush draw As to whether or not you call, I wonder how sure you can be here that he has the flush draw - surely it's a horrible move by him to push with a draw into such a small pot, given short stack's situation. If he has a draw, he's probably going to get to see at least one more card pretty cheaply, and he might well get to see the river as well without jeopardising his third place. I think my first thought might be something like a vulnerable top pair or maybe 2 pair. Given which... ICM says that you get 37.5% equity for calling and 35.5% for folding, quite close. This is only right in hindsight, isn't it, once you know that he can outdraw you to the flush..? Otherwise I imagine the calling equity is higher, no..? As to whether you should push pre-flop - I think whether or not that's viable depends on the structure of the tournament and how aggressively you've played it so far. If you were playing some sort of speed/turbo affair where the blinds are about to go up fast, then I think an all-in from you might serve a purpose, encouraging the others to give you a walk or two. Otherwise it's probably pretty pointless with the blinds at these levels IMO, since it prevents you from hitting a hand like you did here.
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752
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Amnesty International
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on: September 21, 2006, 09:55:53 AM
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Nor me - as I say, don't mind giving them the money and if they hadn't grabbed me I'd never have done it, so I'm sure it's for the best. It's just I'm now a bit cynical about the impassioned speech you get.
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753
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Amnesty International
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on: September 21, 2006, 09:27:04 AM
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I also got done on the street by Amnesty, a few years ago now. Similarly, I don't begrudge them the money, but I do now make a point of not talking to any more clipboarded salespeople. I believe (not entirely sure where I got this from, but I've got a feeling there was some sort of TV expose about it a while back) that the people who accost you don't necessarily have any actual affiliation with the charity - they tend to work for some sort of agency, which gets hired by the charity to do this work for them. The agency obviously has to get paid, and therefore the charity doesn't actually see any of your money for the first year or whatever (depending presumably on how much you give them). It's therefore actually better for the charity if you just sign up direct with them.
I think this is the case, but not certain - if anyone knows better, please feel free to correct me... As I say, I don't have a problem with giving them money - I just don't like the idea that the clipboard doesn't necessarily believe a word of the spiel that they give you.
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756
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Aces busted
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on: September 17, 2006, 06:43:06 AM
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I think you're just unlucky. At low levels I reckon you have to call his all-in - there's so many hands he could do this with. At lower levels they'd include any pair, since he might well reckon you just have big cards and have missed the flop. Top pair's very possible, and I wouldn't be that surprised to see some junk like Q7s. He might also do it with big cards himself, reckoning that you can't call. I think you must show a huge long-term profit calling here, especially since you haven't telegraphed your pair by putting in a bigger-than-standard raise.
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758
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Call me stupid.... but i just don't get it!
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on: September 16, 2006, 02:16:51 AM
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Oh and one thing I have learnt, don't call with carp from the SB - it may be a cheap flop to see, but overall, I'm way down in cash from calling from the small blind with rubbish!
Yes, this is probably the fishiest play you can make.
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759
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: QQ, any suggestions?
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on: August 24, 2006, 09:46:55 AM
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I recommend reading this thread. Was just looking through it when I got dealt QQ. STT, blinds 50/100... Raised to 300, two callers, K on the flop, bet half the pot and they passed. Thanks for the advice, and please can someone write some more of these magic card-predicting threads...
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760
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Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: optimum limit?
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on: August 18, 2006, 01:18:37 AM
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I'm sure there's something in the idea that for some players the lower levels might not be easier to beat. But I also suspect that lots of players aren't willing or able to adapt their game to the players around them. If you're playing your perfect clever poker against people who wouldn't recognise it if you shoved it up their every orifice then you're going to get frustratingly outdrawn (while obviously still raking in a profit from the times you hand holds up). But if you're better than them then you should be able to work out what they're up to and adjust your play accordingly to minimise how often that situation develops, shouldn't you..? If it still bothers you, then maybe it's temperament rather than poker 'skill' that's the issue.
I found myself having a massive problem with outdraws a couple of weeks ago - constantly going out of STTs ($20) as a result of them. Eventually I decided to try and keep pots smaller, especially in the later stages, and stop putting all my chips in the middle so often to reduce the number of opportunities for an outdraw to knock me out. Seems, so far at least, to have given me a better balance between accumulating chips and making sure I stay in the game.
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