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46  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: DTD Caribbean Poker Party on: March 15, 2012, 04:41:45 PM
Can u inlcude some online Feeders with slightly longer clocks?
47  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: March 12, 2012, 10:44:34 PM
Aye all the best!
48  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: March 11, 2012, 01:08:50 PM
5-1on bf now.... Managed 12-1 thivs am
49  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: March 09, 2012, 10:21:11 PM
Thomas Bjorn to win his 3 ball today v Crane and Colsearts at 15/8 with Spreadex

Course and conditions suit and the reverse is true for the others. Price is standout value.



Nice one
50  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 09, 2012, 08:12:00 AM


Pervak to bt Govortsova  1pt @ 2.0 BF. won

Sanchez to bt Lino 3 pts @ 1.32 BF.  lost (sigh)

Scheepers to bt Johansson 3 pts @  1.29 LadB won


Day3  -1.7 Pts
No time to look at anything over the weekend so will save some $
51  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 08, 2012, 01:06:38 PM
You could just add a few phantom in-play bets and you'll be showing a good profit. I'm sure nobody will notice.

Been done already i think...

Pervak to bt Govortsova  1pt @ 2.0 BF

Sanchez to bt Lino 3 pts @ 1.32 BF

Scheepers to bt Johansson 3 pts @  1.29 LadB
52  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 08, 2012, 10:15:17 AM
Rus to bt Baltacha                  0.5pt   2.84  BF  LOST  - Rus was 1 set up and 4-2 up in the 2nd trading at 1.14 and blew it -so happy with the value bet.  If I'd had a decent £ bet on it I may have traded it out then.

Gajdosova to bt Vandeweghe   1pt   1.8   Corals  WON

Pironcova to bt Navarro           1pt   1.62   BF LOST

Paramentier to bt Krumm           2pt   1.78   BF LOST  Paramentier got totally stuffed.

Day 2:  -2.7 pnts
Total:  - 3.52 pnts

Not a good day Cheesy
53  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 07, 2012, 08:23:48 PM
Eeewwww looks like she's having trouble winning a point let alone a game/set Sad

she finally broke 5-1 down in second set i feel a comeback her oppo is 40 nearly as old as me guess she is needing her slippers and pipe by now


But she's 5'4 and 53kg..... How's that compare?  Wink

I'm admiring the optimism but sadly not to be
54  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 07, 2012, 08:06:13 PM
Eeewwww looks like she's having trouble winning a point let alone a game/set Sad
55  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 07, 2012, 05:22:40 PM
Today...

Rus to bt Baltacha                  0.5pt   2.84  BF
Gajdosova to bt Vandeweghe   1pt   1.8   Corals
Pironcova to bt Navarro           1pt   1.62   BF
Paramentier to bt Krumm           2pt   1.78   BF
56  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Caribbean Poker Party Information Thread on: March 07, 2012, 01:33:00 PM
How child friendly is this place? Anyone thinking of taking their kids?

If fine for kids... we took our 6month old in 2006 for the CPC and it was great (although we were given a suite by WH due to my rakeage at the time i think and they knew I was taking jnr)   Lots of choice on food and nice quiet safe spot.  Baby sitter was refferenced by the hotel and came every night for not many $.  She was a devout Christian and I'm not sure she approved of gambling...I had a result out there and tipped $100 on the last night and she came back next day saying I'd given her a ton acciidently instead of $10 Cheesy
57  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 07, 2012, 11:59:12 AM
Working through the matches but got a few things on today so not sure if i'll process them all.. but have found one i like

Parmentier to bt Date-Krumm 2 pts @ 1.79 on BF (BP at the moment)
58  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 07, 2012, 09:41:44 AM
Govortsova to bt Hlavackova    1 point @ 1.64
Minella to bt Krajicek                    1 point @   3.0
Foretz Gacon to bt Panova           1 point @   2.38
Tsurenko to bt Kudryavtseva           1 point @   1.54


Govortsova 1 point @ 1.64 WON 6-4 6-1
Tsurenko 1 point @   1.54  WON 6-3 6-1

Both these came in as comfortable 2 set wins.  One of the main objectives is to pick the lower priced games where there's less chance of a surprise so happy that both of these were comfortable wins. 


Foretz Gacon 1 point @   2.38 LOST Retired injured
FML .. 1st 4 selections and one goes lame.  Not a lot I can do about it.


Minella 1 point @   3.0 LOST 6-4 5-7 6-3
Starting price came into 2.73 and Minella gave her a game for 3 sets at a price, she went a break up in the 1st as well but handed it right back :/ ... overall happy with the value in the bet @ 3.0


Day 1:  Total Point: -0.82
Running Total Points: -0.82



Will now have a look at today.



59  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 06, 2012, 09:22:10 PM
P.S. I think you're following the WTA rather than the LTA. They are women, not ladies, apparently. Cheesy

Nor Lawns for that matter!    Good point, well made Smiley


As for the other stuff...

Prices:  Those are BF prices but I checked on Oddschecker that they were there or there abouts. I've only got 3 or 4 other accounts so will take the price at one of my bookies if it's better.  I'm holding off opening other accounts until I start putting decent size bets on this.  I'm only playing at it at the moment and don't want to blow the Intro bonus on new accounts with tester bets.  Will try to post best price for other selections.


App Calculated Pricings:  The app is not there yet.  But i'd like to put this in to some degree.  The app at the moment just gives indicators from the the data provided that you can gleam from investigation on the net... just does it a bit quicker/easier and highlights games for deeper follow up investigation.

Putting the logic in that I'd apply myself to gain some indication of "my price" is hard work and I'm sure my logic has many flaws at the moment. So far (ie yesterday and today) I've been looking at the indicators and classifying in my head - Strong Win/Prob Win/Win/Close Call... then checking the odds.   One area I'm not clear on is short price value bets/margins and need to have a think about it.  I mean it's easy to say a 2-1 dog is value if I call it at 55-45 but need to understand better if in my head a Strong win is value at 1.3 etc.

Currently it just provides an indicator as to games that may be better to back given recent history and I delve deeper into that market to try and find a reason not to back.

Injuries: I have found a site that gives info on injuries... not sure how on the ball it is.  Any pointers?

Dates of last match played:   I'm just keeping an eye on this manually at the moment.  I'm currently working on last 10-15 games... seems to cover couple of months for most players for the small sample I've worked on. 

One question I was thinking of that maybe a tennis pro punter could help with ... What's decent guide line for the half-life of tennis results/trends/info and when to discount?

As stated previously it's all very Heath Robinson at the moment but i think the key is refinement and development plus gaining some "human" market knowledge to blend in with the raw stats.
60  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Looking at Tennis on: March 06, 2012, 07:06:45 PM
In before anyone else how much do you want Smiley

5k in the Swiss Account gets you in on the ground floor.  A/C Ref 'Gnasher 69'  ...i named it after my dog.
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