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61  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Looking at Tennis on: March 06, 2012, 06:26:49 PM
To cut a long story short I've got some time on my hands at the moment and to avoid having to paint the house I was looking around for something to throw myself into.   After 8 yrs solid poker playing  i need a few weeks off and have been inspired by lurking on this thread for some time and decided to have a look at something else.

Tennis seems like the obv market for someone with a few hours to invest each day so I started trawling through the stats sites.   Soon became apparent that seeing the wood for the trees was not the easiest thing so I designed a little PC app that takes a feed from the stats sites and then juggles the data to help identify the best game to go for / most value etc.  

At the moment it's just in prototype and pretty basic.   It mainly works on recent form past 10-15 matches for each players, surface, results with respects to rankings ,results with respect to odds in those historic matches and helps identify some matches that may be better than others to back, and investigate more closely.

  I'm looking to develop it further and keen for any feedback from knowlagable tennis punters as to other key variables that can be put in there and which variables to prioritise/weight.
 

The hope is also that as i look at the games more and come to understand the sport a little better I can blend the output from the App with a bit of human knowledge and impove it further. From a standing start I'm far from a tennis expert!

The plan is to ID a few short odds games each day and maybe the odd value bet at longer odds.  It only works for LTA at the moment but will add in the chaps over the next few days or so.  

The goal is to make a proffit.

I toyed with the idea of posting this or not but it's no fun doing it on my tod.  Expecting some quality flames Cheesy

I've churned through todays Qualifiers at Indian Wells (takes a while!!)  and have come up with the following 4 bets.   Betting very modeslty at first to see how it goes and would not recommend anyone following the bets Smiley  The Minella bet was the one where i was surprised when i looked at the market, expected it to be lot closer but still in Krajiceks favour.  I've prob got too many selections for what I want to do but at the moment it's all about developing the approach and then fine tuning.  

The thread may well die a death if I get off to a disaster start Cheesy


Govortsova to bt Hlavackova    1 point @ 1.64
Minella to bt Krajicek                    1 point @   3.0
Foretz Gacon to bt Panova           1 point @   2.38
Tsurenko to bt Kudryavtseva           1 point @   1.54



 

62  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: March 05, 2012, 03:24:39 PM
Monday

4.00 lingfield 1pt win GRAND GOLD 33-1 ladbrokes

2.45 hereford 1pt win at sp MEDIC MAN (plenty of more high profile connections with unexposed animals so i expect this one to go off at least 20-1 )

as for cheltenham the bets i was considering now arent as big as i thought in terms of price so im leaving them for now however i have had one special bet which i feel is overpriced

Cheesy Result on Medic Man...  got it at 14-1 Best Odds this AM and it went off at 8-1 cheers
63  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tennis Staking Thread on: March 04, 2012, 10:20:29 PM
Yes to both Bobby and Dubai.

Make money betting pre-match and between games? Yes.

Trading in-game? No. Have a good courtsiding tale I can share as of early April.

That was it mate, I've also got a court siders story but yours might be better!

Wants to hear all the court siding tales
64  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: March 02, 2012, 09:30:37 PM
splash i dont mean to be rude but im away very early tommorow (about 5am train) i will answer that on sunday if thats ok?

couple more for tonight

KIRSTYS LAD 0.5pts win betfair (lets say 85-1 some pennies at 100-1 at present) 8.40 (prob be off about 9.20pm)

COPPERS 0.5PTS EWAY 16-1 BOYLESPORTS dundalk 9.15



Not rude at all... take ur time fella Cheesy
65  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: March 02, 2012, 07:24:38 PM
I'm curious, what's the thought process that goes into recommending a win bet or an ew?
66  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: March 02, 2012, 05:20:01 PM
ability n delivery never looked in any doubt...  had a wee dabble at 9/2 yesterday and a little more at today when it drifted.   Smiley

Ta
67  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: February 29, 2012, 09:58:58 AM
thanks splash not so good today

6.35 wolverhampton Kempton 0.5pt win italian tom 7-1 general

6.35 wolverhampton Kempton 1pt win best trip 16-1 willim hill (again! Sad )






FYP
68  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: <<SOLD OUT>>DTD £500 Deepstack 2-4th March (£250k Guarenteed) on: February 28, 2012, 09:20:42 AM
Sorry to intrude but.... Hello there Splash.

Hi Maureen... how's it going?
69  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: <<SOLD OUT>>DTD £500 Deepstack 2-4th March (£250k Guarenteed) on: February 28, 2012, 09:19:57 AM
Gnted a win now as I was just about to nab a small slice and missed the boat.... btw ur blogs out of date  Cheesy

GL

Hi Jim, really? About four years out.!!
Yours still going? It wouldnt be very interesting from me these days.... Not sure "musings of a middle aged amateur" would get the railbird juices flowing, especially when i spend most of my days stuck in an office grinding a crust to cover the mortgage and food bills talking people strategy, resourcing plans and demand forecasts.. Maybe i will resurrect it one day when there is something to tell the world.

Mine ran out of steam about 12months ago..... had a great 2010 but 2011 was hard work poker wise and had a break for a while.  Know what you mean about grinding a crust Smiley  However work have just made me an offer I can't refuse to jump ship in May after 14yrs so having to get my A Game head on again Smiley  I'm in the £500 on Sat so will say hi.  GL
70  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: <<SOLD OUT>>DTD £500 Deepstack 2-4th March (£250k Guarenteed) on: February 27, 2012, 11:02:50 PM
Gnted a win now as I was just about to nab a small slice and missed the boat.... btw ur blogs out of date  Cheesy

GL
71  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: February 27, 2012, 08:17:37 PM
Nice price on Honey of a Kitten...  enjoying following this thread ty
72  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Tips for Tikay on: February 27, 2012, 10:56:05 AM
Hammad Azam to topscore for Pakistan today- 12s with Sky, 10s with Stan James and Bet365

If anyone could have some on for me it would be great as got offered £8.33 and £5.45

Thanks.

What time does it start, please, Dave?

How much did you want to bet - for you, I mean?

Have sent you a PM.

4pm
73  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: DTD £250,000 Supersized Deepstack this weekend: Rollcall and Information on: February 27, 2012, 10:16:56 AM
1B for me i think
74  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Horse tipping thread on: February 24, 2012, 04:08:10 PM
close again at meydan at 16-1 Sad lets hope mays boy runs well in the last certainly got the price

1.50 sandown 2pts win MAHFAL 6-1 bog (the blinkers should enable a win here)

4.40 sandown 1pt win MID DIV AND CREEP 10-1 bog general

4.05 warwick 0.5pt win SPORTING BOY



Nice one on Sporting Boy... got it 20/1 EW this morning and ended up 9-1 SP for 2nd
75  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: £40 to £20k in 25ish Winning Selections!! on: February 21, 2012, 09:49:04 AM
Been reading this thread for a while... and it's prompted me to have a dabble on a few sports bets for the 1st time in a long time.   Was looking around for a bit of value last night and came across Dundee vs Kilmarnock tonight.... unders 2.5 @ 1.84 and unders 3.5 @ 1.33.

Stats:

69% of Dundee home matches have been under 2.5 goals
Dundee only scored more than one goal at home twice this season and both of those against bottom 3 clubs..  ave home goals 0.92

69% of Kilmarnock away matches have been under 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock have only once scored more than 1 on their travels averging 0.69 away goals

Both teams mid table SPL zzzzz fest.


Like i said it's been a while so feel free to pick holes?
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