Imperial's react report https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf

 estimates that the #COVID19 R rate in London is the highest in the country at 2.86 (!!), which compares to a national R rate of 1.56 (also very high!).

The growth rate in London is also the highest in the country at 21%.

It estimates 96,000 new infections a day and doubling every 9 days. Nearly 1m are estimated to be infected. Covering 16-25 Oct, it's very up to date


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France and Germany go into national lockdowns

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We're going to be way too late again?

!

Police will enter homes and break up Christmas dinners if families break lockdown rules, predicts police commissioner https://trib.al/eRo0JuK

Maureen I don't really know what to say, just terrible news. Deepest sympathies to all of you

Weird stuff this week anyway. 

Chancellor hands out another £12 billion ...

... while PM loses baton to Burnham for a paltry £5m

and doubles down against popular soccer player on child poverty issue for the sake of £20m

isn't 13/8 SPOTY the equivalent of finding money in the street?

Incredible efforts all year

or will they find a special humanitarian category for him?

oh boy

"In the film, Giuliani, a former New York mayor & current personal attorney to Trump, is seen reaching into his trousers & apparently touching his genitals while reclining on a bed in the presence of the actor playing Borat’s daughter”

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/oct/21/rudy-giuliani-faces-questions-after-compromising-scene-in-new-borat-film?CMP=share_btn_tw

“After she removes his microphone, Giuliani, 76, can be seen lying back on the bed, fiddling with his untucked shirt and reaching into his trousers. They are then interrupted by Borat who runs in and says: ‘She’s 15. She’s too old for you!”

"He obviously never thinks about strengthening Labour and his position in Manchester when he does it. "

Do you not think Burnham will win in a landslide in the Manchester mayoral elections next year?

Must be very possible after the last 72 hours, no?


meanwhile whither the Tory Red Wall from last December? Minus quite a few bricks in the next election perhaps....

Talks that were never really off are back on.

Frost

"We have agreed that a basis for negotiations with the EU & barnier has been re-established. Intensive talks will happen every day & begin tomorrow afternoon, 22 October, in London."

Fishing and state aid were the previous stumbling blocks

H

really good

Will coronavirus break the UK?

Covid-19 has already driven a greater wedge between the four nations, testing the boundaries of power. But could it push them even further apart?

https://www.ft.com/content/05bcdeed-ce2d-4009-a3bc-cf9bb71c43d5?shareType=nongift

South Yorkshire to move into tier 3 from Saturday

(they did a deal on the money)

The new restrictions will apply to all four local authority areas in South Yorkshire - Barnsley, Doncaster, Rotherham and Sheffield.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54627017

Boris really didn't have a clue how much money he is prepared to give Greater Manchester. That press conf was toe curdling.

Greater Manchester will be placed under stricter coronavirus controls after talks between the Government and civic leaders concluded without an agreement

Does the absence of an agreement (all over +/-£5m apparently on a £60m payment) make any difference to compliance with the measures or not?

an interesting read, agree or not, about “errors” by Sage —

Error 1: Assuming 100% of the population was susceptible to the virus

Error 2: The belief that the percentage of the population that has been infected can be determined by finding out who has antibodies.



https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

or

At times, it seems that No10 is designing Covid policy based on worse-case scenarios rather than facts on the ground. My blog on the data, and NHS performance

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-likely-is-the-nhs-to-be-overwhelmed-by-covid-

Here is Covid-19 positive cases, numbers in hospital and deaths on one chart - they follow one another with a lag.