Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.
That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.
On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.
It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.
Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.
Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.
Obviously you are correct but I think it is almost certainly a +EV move for Hills. To be honest I am amazed more firms dont lead with price marketing like this as it is smart and cost effective. Even things like it being mentioned on this thread have value for Hills and they also will no doubt get the opportunity to have that wanker Graham Sharpe on the TV next week saying how they laid HF to lose £100m in £50 bets. I think the interesting thing is the last line in your post Neil. Surely if there are so many arbers then HF should become very weak in the Betfair market today yet it isn't. By my reading of the BF charts he has been layed for about £20k today all at 3.55/3.6. Who has come out of the woodwork today wanting £20k on the horse? Hills are the only people I can think of that might want to do that today......very weird as simple economics would suggest that the smart thing to do if you were an arber today would be to lay £2k of Hurrican Fly early then bet it back later when all the arbers are trying to lay the horse at any cost for their free bet. Certainly would have more respect for someone that had actually thought that through than someone walking around 20 shops to get a grand at 3/1 with Hills.
Fair point - although we have a lot more than a grand on
The current betfair market is of course 'anti-post' yet Hills are NRNB, Hurricane will be a lot shorter in the 'day-of-race' market.
For the record, although I fully understand the view and arguments against arbers, we are an extremely well organised team and offer an excellent service to clients.
What I don't quite get is the ignorance of some pretty well thought of 'gamblers/punters' (two completely different sets of people imo) as to what today's arbing is about.
The views are quite prehistoric. We operate in a market place and have an opinion on where markets may or may not go. The complaint of "arbers spoiling it for the good guys' is not only dated, its pretty weak and coming from people who are surprisingly clueless about where professional arbers are today.
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